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BlueJaysIn2030

Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

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Interesting for the OP, there's a little rumor that the Jays are intered in VIllar for MI depth.

 

Given the health concerns of TT and Devon it makes some sense.  

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The two big moves by the Brewers make me question what is going on with Villar on a couple levels - and I own him on the cheap and considering him as one of my last keepers but I just dont have a great feel. 

 

* Brewers are be in "win now" mode, if he struggles again, might just give the job to Sogard or he wins it outright in spring, also have Hernan Perez still there who was pretty effective last year.   Villar seems to excel in low-stress situations where he is not being pushed for PT. 

 

* Batting order?  Some projections Ive seen has him listed as the starting 2B, but also lists him batting 8th, which after acquiring Cain and Yelich and the power guys in the middle, makes some sense although their catchers could hit 8th.  Anyhow, when you bat 8th in a National League lineup, that is not a good spot at all to steal bases from.  You typically are going to get bunted over by the P anyway so managers wont risk you getting thrown out.  Not sure where to find the data, but my guess is that stolen base attempts when the pitcher was at the plate were a pretty low number overall.  I would assume if he wins a job, he wont bat 8th and neutralize/minimize one of his skill sets, Rotochamp has him batting 8th and stealing 42 bases, that just is not going to happen.

 

Any updated thoughts on Villar?  Seems like most roster sites are projecting him pretty well locked in as the starter, which is good...but some other concerns about batting order for me. 

 

 

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I don't know where he will bat but I know he should bat eighth given how horrible he did last season.  I don't care where a player bats in a line-up though. More concerned how he plays and what type of line-up he bats in.  If he plays well he moves up.  If he bats badly then I'd rather have him bat eighth and maybe save me an extra AB now and again that would just bring my stats down.

 

Unless the Brewers sign another 2B like Neil Walker etc I suppose Villar will start out at 2B given the current line-up.  But I am surprised Milwaukee didn't land an alternative to him this off season.  I agree if they start with him he could have a short lease.

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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't know where he will bat but I know he should bat eighth given how horrible he did last season.  I don't care where a player bats in a line-up though. More concerned how he plays and what type of line-up he bats in.  If he plays well he moves up.  If he bats badly then I'd rather have him bat eighth and maybe save me an extra AB now and again that would just bring my stats down.

 

Unless the Brewers sign another 2B like Neil Walker etc I suppose Villar will start out at 2B given the current line-up.  But I am surprised Milwaukee didn't land an alternative to him this off season.  I agree if they start with him he could have a short lease.

Sogard was very impressive last year and it goes without saying his defense is better.  I think he's going to platoon with Villar since Sogard has nowhere else to play regularly.

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3 hours ago, Magoo said:

Sogard was very impressive last year and it goes without saying his defense is better.  I think he's going to platoon with Villar since Sogard has nowhere else to play regularly.

Sogard is buns, the fan know it, the teammates know it, and we fantasy players know it. CC better play Villar regularly and let us have some peace. 

 

 

Far off prediction of the year is Villar steals 40+ SB.

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ill happily take a flier on this guy in a late round and give him some time on my bench to see where he is

 

Brewers offense going to be explosive and if he can regain even a smidge of his 2016 form 

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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2 hours ago, South Jersey Bombers said:

Sogard is buns, the fan know it, the teammates know it, and we fantasy players know it. CC better play Villar regularly and let us have some peace. 

 

 

Far off prediction of the year is Villar steals 40+ SB.

That take is so hot you must have burned your hand typing it!

 

2017

Eric Sogard 299 PA's, 1.1 WAR, 108 wRC+

Jonathan Villar 436 PA's, -0.5 WAR ( yes, negative zero point five), 71 wRC+

 

Career defense:

Sogard 1630 PA's, 5.7 Defensive Runs above average - basically slightly above average defender.

Villar 1773 PA's, -42.7 Defensive runs above (below in his case!) average - a godawful defender.

 

So Villar can't really hit and is a terrible defender. And you want Villar to play every day? 

 

I guess this would make sense if you're a Cubs or Cards fan

 

 

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9 hours ago, cs3 said:

That take is so hot you must have burned your hand typing it!

 

2017

Eric Sogard 299 PA's, 1.1 WAR, 108 wRC+

Jonathan Villar 436 PA's, -0.5 WAR ( yes, negative zero point five), 71 wRC+

 

Career defense:

Sogard 1630 PA's, 5.7 Defensive Runs above average - basically slightly above average defender.

Villar 1773 PA's, -42.7 Defensive runs above (below in his case!) average - a godawful defender.

 

So Villar can't really hit and is a terrible defender. And you want Villar to play every day? 

 

I guess this would make sense if you're a Cubs or Cards fan

 

 

He was 1 HR shy of being like one of 20 guys in MLB History to join the 20-60 club, I think people want to see that potential in the lineup without worrying about losing time to a guy most view as a nice professional utility infielder.  

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Villar is the classic 'needs a change of scenery' guy.  He fell out of favour, not only for his overly aggressive approach, but Counsell was not happy with him when on a couple occasions he attempted to steal, without a green light, and was thrown out.  Unfortunately for Villar owners, the new added bats makes it more likely that they will value Sogard's defense more than Villar's bat and that's going to limit his ABs.  I would gladly pounce on Villar if he was dealt somewhere and provided everyday at-bats.

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3 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Villar is the classic 'needs a change of scenery' guy.  He fell out of favour, not only for his overly aggressive approach, but Counsell was not happy with him when on a couple occasions he attempted to steal, without a green light, and was thrown out.  Unfortunately for Villar owners, the new added bats makes it more likely that they will value Sogard's defense more than Villar's bat and that's going to limit his ABs.  I would gladly pounce on Villar if he was dealt somewhere and provided everyday at-bats.

Good post and when your talking about the guy hitting 8th in an NL lineup?

* Defense might win out over offense?

* someone they can "trust" to not go off script, as mentioned stealing 2nd with the P up is not usually a very good baseball play, and so GC may think that he cant be trusted, now that said, its not like their lineup drops off after the 7 spot, the catcher is no great shakes so maybe he wins job and hits 7th?

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4 hours ago, parrothead said:

He was 1 HR shy of being like one of 20 guys in MLB History to join the 20-60 club, I think people want to see that potential in the lineup without worrying about losing time to a guy most view as a nice professional utility infielder.  

Sure people "want" to see it, but it's not going to happen. I think you'd agree that his 2016 season was a complete outlier - like standards of deviation better than anything he's done over a season. 

 

He'smore likely to become a straight up bench player and only play a couple times per week, than he is to be the full time starting 2B all season and go 20/40+ with anything resembling a good OBP. And his defense is never going to be good so Sogard will always have an advantage there.

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58 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Sure people "want" to see it, but it's not going to happen. I think you'd agree that his 2016 season was a complete outlier - like standards of deviation better than anything he's done over a season. 

 

He'smore likely to become a straight up bench player and only play a couple times per week, than he is to be the full time starting 2B all season and go 20/40+ with anything resembling a good OBP. And his defense is never going to be good so Sogard will always have an advantage there.

I agree in the sense that his defense isnt very good and more times that not the plate discipline isnt there and so OBP/avg are not very good - but I always liked him for counting stats, even going into 2016, I posted on here that up until that point he had had about a full season worth of at-bats and had 10HR and 40+ stolen bases, so if he could get full time at-bats I thought he could be cheap source of bags and not completely popless, no way I saw 20-60 with the average, that was indeed the outlier.  

 

Too bad he wasnt shipped to Miami in the Yelich package, would be a great fantasy player getting 500 at-bats on a 100-loss team.  

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stolen bases have very little value in real baseball where as defense and the ability to get on base are quite valuable.

 

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I think Villar is one of the scariest guys to draft this year. I think he can rebound in one sense to a 20/40 season. But I can easily see his terrible defense and bad average being replaced and he ends up being a wasted pick. His ADP is around 180 which is not a huge risk but it's still not the point in drafts where you might have to be dropping a guy by May because he is a liability out there. 

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Definitely a battle to watch during Spring Training.  If it looks like he has the job, then I would move him up but not reach too much.

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Low BB%, extremely high K%, low FB%, low batting average, etc. Take away his speed, and he has basically nothing going for him. Wouldn't touch him before the 20th round. 

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24 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Low BB%, extremely high K%, low FB%, low batting average, etc. Take away his speed, and he has basically nothing going for him. Wouldn't touch him before the 20th round. 

 

Billy Hamilton being drafted in the top 100. Take away his speed, and he has nothing. 

 

Aaron Judge is being drafted in the top 100. Take away his power, and he has nothing. 

 

 

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One thing to think about when evaluating Villar is now that they have Yellich and Cain and after his abysmal 2017 there's a pretty good chance he's no longer hitting lead off. So now you're talking a 1 category guy probably hitting 8th in the NL with playing time question marks. All my leagues count K's so he is basically off my board.

Edited by fletch44

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1 hour ago, Travis Burten said:

 

Billy Hamilton being drafted in the top 100. Take away his speed, and he has nothing. 

 

Aaron Judge is being drafted in the top 100. Take away his power, and he has nothing. 

 

 

Exactly, which is why I wouldn't draft any of them, especially Hamilton. Judge actually has more going for him than just the homers. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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On 2/9/2018 at 12:10 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Exactly, which is why I wouldn't draft any of them, especially Hamilton. Judge actually has more going for him than just the homers. 

 

The difference in Hamilton and Villar is that Hamilton is going to play barring injury. Villar might actually lose ABs, making him a pretty sizable risk, depending on price. And as long as he stays healthy, Hamilton is going to get his owners 50-60 SBs in a category that is pretty deprived right now. You can draft him, make up for his lack of BA-HR-RBI with your other positions, and cobble enough SBs together with them to be highly competitive in the SB category. Of course, I'm speaking from a roto perspective, which might be different from yours. 

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Villar batted second today with most of the starters going. That would be awesome if he kept hitting this spring and got a shot at the top of the lineup out of the gate. 

 

Todays lineup: Cain, Villar, Braun, Domingo Santana.

 

So obviously missing Yelich but I think it makes a lot of sense to bat Yelich 5th begins Santana. It also makes a lot of sense to bat him 2nd or 3rd, so perhaps some wishful thinking :)

 

I’m still holding out hope for Villar and a 15hr 45sb season this year. It starts with a good spring!

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, tywalson said:

Villar batted second today with most of the starters going. That would be awesome if he kept hitting this spring and got a shot at the top of the lineup out of the gate. 

 

Todays lineup: Cain, Villar, Braun, Domingo Santana.

 

So obviously missing Yelich but I think it makes a lot of sense to bat Yelich 5th begins Santana. It also makes a lot of sense to bat him 2nd or 3rd, so perhaps some wishful thinking :)

 

I’m still holding out hope for Villar and a 15hr 45sb season this year. It starts with a good spring!

 

Yelich will be batting in the top 4

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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There's no way he bats 2nd this year with that stacked offense. Yelich, Cain, Shaw, Santana, Braun(1B), Arcia will all bat above him. 

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Any games that Villar starts will probably find him hitting 7th. Frankly, I'd do the same thing I'd like to see Cincy do with Hamilton...bat him 9th behind the pitcher and let him flow right into the top of the lineup. Then you combine his speed with Cain, Yelich, and crew at the top. 

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Just got this SOB at pick 273 in a 12 team H2H 5x5.  Can't believe how down on this guy everyone is.  There's lots of reasons why he might not be a good play this year, but I'll take that upside any day in the 23rd round.

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