yort1919

Trey Mancini 2018 Outlook

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Depth Charts projects 24 HR, 84 RBI, .275. I'd say that's a pretty good projection. If he improves he could get close to 30 HR.

Edited by Mitchell_McDi
Wrong projection

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I put his over/under on 2018 stats as:

27 HR

.275 AVG

88 RBI

Why not much love for Mancini?

Isn’t his expected 2018 stats comparable to N Mazara, J Bell, I Desmond, A Duvall, N Castellanos, C Santana, etc...

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this recently from rotoprofessor.com..

http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=34790

 

Quote

From a power perspective there’s nothing unrealistic in the overall number.  Sure he posted a 51.0% groundball rate, but he’s a 25-year old (he will turn 26 prior to the start of the season playing in a hitter’s ballpark and posted a realistic 19.8% HR/FB.  There is a little bit of risk, which we will get to shortly, but in general everything is slanted in his favor.

When we move to the average, though, the questions really start to build.

Considering the groundball rate and relative lack of speed would anyone be willing to bank on him replicating a .352 BABIP?  A regression there is almost a given, and that alone brings significant risk.  However there’s also concerns about his approach.

Mancini posted a 23.7% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate in 2017, and there’s the risk for those numbers to further regress.  He owned a 13.8% SwStr% and 34.9% O-Swing%, and struggled against multiple types of pitches (Whiff%):

  • Hard – 9.33%
  • Breaking – 19.16%
  • Offspeed – 23.99%

It should come as no surprise that he saw fastballs only 54.29% of the time.  Considering his home runs mostly came on fastball variations, if opposing pitchers start throwing him even fewer fastballs he could see a regression there as well.

With the risk of a regression in his power and average, is it also a stretch to think that he won’t be slotted into the middle of the lineup?  That would take out the potential for runs/RBI, two categories he already failed to thrive in.

We aren’t about to say that it will be impossible for Mancini to post strong numbers in 2018, but he clearly carries a lot of risk and you can argue that he’s never going to be among the elite.  That means the risk simply may outweigh the potential reward.

 

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2 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

I put his over/under on 2018 stats as:

27 HR

.275 AVG

88 RBI

Why not much love for Mancini?

Isn’t his expected 2018 stats comparable to N Mazara, J Bell, I Desmond, A Duvall, N Castellanos, C Santana, etc...

 

he doesn't walk and his fist-half power was driven by an extreme hh HR/FB rate of 26%.   it shrunk to 15% in the 2nd half.

if ADPs/costs will be similar, I'd rather have Bell, Castellanos and Santana.     Perhaps Mazara, too.

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Yes, that all makes sense. So, his value depends on jacking 27 HR per season while sustaining a .275 avg. 

That does seem like a lot to expect from Mancini. But, he did have a .306 BA in 4 years in the minors, and he has matured and gotten stronger. I think it’s possible that he can do it.

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Anyone have anything further to add to the skeletal update below? 

 

This happened a couple days after I drafted him - no news/good news as this blurb suggests?

 

Trey Mancini will sit out Monday's exhibition game after tweaking his hamstring on Sunday.
It doesn't sound like a major concern, but the Orioles don't want to take any chances this close to the season. Mancini is coming off a strong rookie year where he slugged 24 home runs with a .293/.338/.488 batting line over 147 games. Mar 26 - 1:59 PM

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He was dropped in my league.. but he is currently leading off and has a decent avg.. am I missing something? 

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5 hours ago, ctrlsoul said:

He was dropped in my league.. but he is currently leading off and has a decent avg.. am I missing something? 

 

I guess it depends on league size - he has raked since moving to the leading off. Seems like he has taken well to the role. Is drawing more walks and hitting .350 since the change (small sample). He will have fewer RBI opportunities but more PA’s over the course of a full season and also protection from Machado and Schoop (once back from the DL). Move to lead off is overall a plus for his value and the Orioles really don’t have other good options so likely he sticks there for a while.

 

all that to say don’t understand why someone would drop him unless it was a very shallow league.

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He was nice to own last year and is raking currently, the walks are a nice surprise too. Leadoff or not he still has good power and should rack some up a decent amount of HRs. 

 

Been tempted to add in my shallow league, I've guys like Braun, Whit, Cain, Olsen not doing a whole lot. Hard leaving Mancini on the wire as hot hes been.

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12 minutes ago, DWright5 said:

Hurt his knee tonight. DL stint coming?

He looked like he was in pain for sure but he walked/jogged off on his own and looked okay to me. Hopefully more precautionary than anything. 

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I think he avoids DL.  I saw it.  Might need a day or two off though.  

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Very interesting. BB% up K% down. LD% up. Yet the power is down. He's hitting more grounders. And the BABIP around .320 is more "normal" than the inflated mark last year. So he looks like a .270 kind of guy but where's the power? Is the knee impacting him?

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I am liking what I’m seeing from Mancini. He sprays the ball to all fields, hitting at the top of the order, and is taking a few more walks this season. His minor league profile points to more power potential. If things come to fruition and he’s able to limit his ground balls a bit I think we are looking at a 300avg with 30hrs. 

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Pick him up and ride those regression stats. Baltimore is #1 in runs scored over the last week. They're still garbage of course, but bad teams can go on offensive runs.

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2 hours ago, indycolts88 said:

He’s been excellent lately.  Anything to see here?

 

Obviously there's something to see here...

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