yort1919

Matt Chapman 2018 Outlook

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Maybe like 25-75, perhaps pushing 30-80?  Little to nothing steals but the question becomes average and runs.  Can he score like 70+ runs and hit .250+ or is he gonna be like .235 and low runs scored.   Makeil Franco like...

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Yea the AVG is going to be the biggest question mark....I''m buying the power though and does know how to take a walk. His defense will keep him in the lineup no matter how badly he might struggle. He's a really good defensive 3B.

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Matt Chapman is a guy I think is being slept on in this year in fantasy, and he’s currently one of my favorite late round power bats. I consider him the discount version of Joey Gallo (NFBC ADP of 114) as you can grab Chapman 170 picks later (NFBC ADP of 284) and get pretty darn similar production. Chapman made his major league debut last year, playing in 84 games and slashing .234/.313/.472 with 14 HRs. That line was supported by a 28.2% K rate and a 9.8% BB rate and came with a reasonable .290 BAPIP. All told he was slightly above-average at the plate with a 108 wRC+, pretty solid for an MLB debut! If you add in his AAA numbers in which he hit .257/.348/.589 with 16 HRs and 5 SBs in 204 PAs, that’s a 31 HR, 5 SB season and that represents the sort of upside he can provide your fantasy team in 2018. Let’s dig a little deeper!

Looking at his batted ball data, it’s very clear why he hits for so much power, it’s because he hits a ton of flyballs with a 50.5% mark last year in the majors and a 50.4% mark in AAA. Note the consistency, that’s 50% of his contact being flyballs…the only guys with higher marks among qualified hitters in the majors last year were Joey Gallo, Kyle Seager, and Matt Carpenter. That really helps him make the most of his raw power, and he’s gotten to it lots as a minor leaguer, hitting 36 HRs in 2016, and 23 in 2015 in just 304 Abs. Speaking of power, Chapman posted a very solid 36% Hard Contact rate which ranked in a tie for 86th best in the majors among those with at least 300 PAs with Yonder Alonso, Jason Castro, and surprisingly Adeiny Hechavarria. That 36% ranked ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Daniel Murphy, Kyle Seager, Bryce Harper, and Kris Bryant. That hard contact rate is supported by a well above-average 89.9 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32 MPH) which ranked in a tie for 35th best in the majors with Joe Mauer, Joc Pederson, and Franchy Cordero. It ranked ahead names like Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, and Cody Bellinger. Chapman has very legit pop, and I think there’s 40 HR upside in his bat, but 30-35 is a more safe projection for 2018.

Couple more things I want to mention, Chapman is far less pull oriented when compared to other 3-true-outcome hitters (34.5% Pull, 38.5% Cent, 27% Oppo) and that in theory should help him maintain a slightly higher BAPIP compared to them as it makes him tougher to defend against using the shift. His 13.9% HR/FB rate in the minors was far lower than what he’s posted in the minors in recent years, as he’s ranged between 20.5% and 27.6% at every stop between 2015 and 2017. So in theory, there is a good chance he gets to his power even more at the major league level than he did last year.

Let’s take a look at Chapman’s plate discipline numbers:

His out-of-zone swing% was 26.6%                                       MLB average is 30%
His zone swing % was 61.9%                                                  MLB average is 65%
His overall swing % was 42.7%                                               MLB average is 46%
His out-of-zone contact % was 56.2%                                   MLB average is 66%
His zone contact% was 81.8%                                                MLB average is 87%
His overall contact rate was 73.2%                                        MLB average is 80%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45.7%    MLB average is 45%
His swinging-strike% was 11.5%                                            MLB average is 9.5%

As you can see, Chapman is a very patient hitter, laying off pitches at a higher rate than average both inside and outside the zone. That’s good as it drives his strong walk rates, and because his contact rate on pitches outside the zone is roughly 10% worse than league average. His ability to make contact inside the zone is a fair bit below-average too, but it’s far from brutal by any means, especially compared to other 3-true-outcome guys like Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano. The Swinging-strike rate is what I’m most encouraged by, it’s worse than average but again not so much that he’s being overmatched or anything, in fact, it’s a lot better than a lot of similar type hitters like Gallo (19.2%), Sano (18.3%), Aaron Judge (13.1%), and even J.D. Martinez (14.6%).

Chapman is a guy I’m buying everywhere, he’s like a less extreme Joey Gallo which is a good thing, and he’s going off the board way later making a terrific value IMO. His Defence at 3rd is incredible, and that should keep him in the lineup even if he struggles at all for a stretch. I just don’t see the downside of him at his current price (NFBC ADP of 284), and he has the upside of a .240 hitter with 30+ HRs with good counting stats.

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I agree that the gap between Chapman and Gallo should not be so large.

 

What about the even larger gap between Chapman and his teammate Khris Davis? Will they really produce much different numbers?

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5 hours ago, RotoGenius said:

I agree that the gap between Chapman and Gallo should not be so large.

 

What about the even larger gap between Chapman and his teammate Khris Davis? Will they really produce much different numbers?

 

I personally don't believe Chapman comes close to Davis' 40 HR or 100 RBI. I think he's more of a 28-80 guy this year with a BA worse than Davis'...which is not good. 

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I watched a couple of his AB's last night, he's got some patience...hopefully that continues. My thoughts for full season projections;

 

.250, 32 HR's, 95 RBI, runs won't get over 70 if he continues to hit 7th. Move him to 5th and I could see 80. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, sauceman11 said:

I watched a couple of his AB's last night, he's got some patience...hopefully that continues. My thoughts for full season projections;

 

.250, 32 HR's, 95 RBI, runs won't get over 70 if he continues to hit 7th. Move him to 5th and I could see 80. 

 

 

 

Hes always featured a healthy walk rate at every stop in the minors so Id imagine the patience is something he will maintain. Id bet he carries a BB% of around 11% this year now that he got to see some MLB pitching for a decent sample last year. 

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A's have moved him up to the 6th spot...keep climbing Young Chap! I think my projections above may be a little light on the average...his early season BABIP is out the roof at .478 though

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Its a small sample (through yesterday), but there are some really encouraging things going on with his profile. K% down to 21.6% from 28.2% last season. Hard hit % up to 53.8% from 36.0% last season. FB% down to 34.6% from 50.5% (low BABIP indicator) last season. He doesn't need a FB% that high with his power. O-swing % down to 19.1% from 26.6% last season. Swinging strike down to 8.8% from 11.5% last season. Again, it's a small sample, but maybe just maybe his hot start has something to do with better selectivity at the plate and actually changing his launch angle downward since he was too all or nothing last season. 

Edited by lassetjus
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On 3/1/2018 at 3:46 PM, garlando said:

Matt Chapman is a guy I think is being slept on in this year in fantasy, and he’s currently one of my favorite late round power bats. I consider him the discount version of Joey Gallo (NFBC ADP of 114) as you can grab Chapman 170 picks later (NFBC ADP of 284) and get pretty darn similar production. Chapman made his major league debut last year, playing in 84 games and slashing .234/.313/.472 with 14 HRs. That line was supported by a 28.2% K rate and a 9.8% BB rate and came with a reasonable .290 BAPIP. All told he was slightly above-average at the plate with a 108 wRC+, pretty solid for an MLB debut! If you add in his AAA numbers in which he hit .257/.348/.589 with 16 HRs and 5 SBs in 204 PAs, that’s a 31 HR, 5 SB season and that represents the sort of upside he can provide your fantasy team in 2018. Let’s dig a little deeper!

Looking at his batted ball data, it’s very clear why he hits for so much power, it’s because he hits a ton of flyballs with a 50.5% mark last year in the majors and a 50.4% mark in AAA. Note the consistency, that’s 50% of his contact being flyballs…the only guys with higher marks among qualified hitters in the majors last year were Joey Gallo, Kyle Seager, and Matt Carpenter. That really helps him make the most of his raw power, and he’s gotten to it lots as a minor leaguer, hitting 36 HRs in 2016, and 23 in 2015 in just 304 Abs. Speaking of power, Chapman posted a very solid 36% Hard Contact rate which ranked in a tie for 86th best in the majors among those with at least 300 PAs with Yonder Alonso, Jason Castro, and surprisingly Adeiny Hechavarria. That 36% ranked ahead of names like Mookie Betts, Daniel Murphy, Kyle Seager, Bryce Harper, and Kris Bryant. That hard contact rate is supported by a well above-average 89.9 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32 MPH) which ranked in a tie for 35th best in the majors with Joe Mauer, Joc Pederson, and Franchy Cordero. It ranked ahead names like Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, and Cody Bellinger. Chapman has very legit pop, and I think there’s 40 HR upside in his bat, but 30-35 is a more safe projection for 2018.

Couple more things I want to mention, Chapman is far less pull oriented when compared to other 3-true-outcome hitters (34.5% Pull, 38.5% Cent, 27% Oppo) and that in theory should help him maintain a slightly higher BAPIP compared to them as it makes him tougher to defend against using the shift. His 13.9% HR/FB rate in the minors was far lower than what he’s posted in the minors in recent years, as he’s ranged between 20.5% and 27.6% at every stop between 2015 and 2017. So in theory, there is a good chance he gets to his power even more at the major league level than he did last year.

Let’s take a look at Chapman’s plate discipline numbers:

His out-of-zone swing% was 26.6%                                       MLB average is 30%
His zone swing % was 61.9%                                                  MLB average is 65%
His overall swing % was 42.7%                                               MLB average is 46%
His out-of-zone contact % was 56.2%                                   MLB average is 66%
His zone contact% was 81.8%                                                MLB average is 87%
His overall contact rate was 73.2%                                        MLB average is 80%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45.7%    MLB average is 45%
His swinging-strike% was 11.5%                                            MLB average is 9.5%

As you can see, Chapman is a very patient hitter, laying off pitches at a higher rate than average both inside and outside the zone. That’s good as it drives his strong walk rates, and because his contact rate on pitches outside the zone is roughly 10% worse than league average. His ability to make contact inside the zone is a fair bit below-average too, but it’s far from brutal by any means, especially compared to other 3-true-outcome guys like Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano. The Swinging-strike rate is what I’m most encouraged by, it’s worse than average but again not so much that he’s being overmatched or anything, in fact, it’s a lot better than a lot of similar type hitters like Gallo (19.2%), Sano (18.3%), Aaron Judge (13.1%), and even J.D. Martinez (14.6%).

Chapman is a guy I’m buying everywhere, he’s like a less extreme Joey Gallo which is a good thing, and he’s going off the board way later making a terrific value IMO. His Defence at 3rd is incredible, and that should keep him in the lineup even if he struggles at all for a stretch. I just don’t see the downside of him at his current price (NFBC ADP of 284), and he has the upside of a .240 hitter with 30+ HRs with good counting stats.

You do us all a great favor with your posts, ty and keep them coming. Really want to add this guy even know I have Machado at 3B and Shaw SS, and no UT sports :/ I already slept on Olsen but feel like most of us should pick Chap up and see how things pan out.

Edited by tonywow
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Matt Chapman ended Wednesday's rout against the Dodgers with a single, a home run, two runs scored and three RBI across six at-bats.

Chapman is making like former Cal State Fullerton alum Phil Nevin and tearing the cover off the ball, posting four homers and 10 RBI in 10 outings in the month of April. He also has six multi-hit performances over his past nine contests to push his average to a solid .347. He'll look to keep it going on Friday in Seattle against LHP Ariel Miranda. It's early, but he is 4-of-11 (.364) against southpaws so far this season.
 
 

Does the Rotoworld blurb guy know that Chapman is right handed? 

 

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9 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Matt Chapman ended Wednesday's rout against the Dodgers with a single, a home run, two runs scored and three RBI across six at-bats.

Chapman is making like former Cal State Fullerton alum Phil Nevin and tearing the cover off the ball, posting four homers and 10 RBI in 10 outings in the month of April. He also has six multi-hit performances over his past nine contests to push his average to a solid .347. He'll look to keep it going on Friday in Seattle against LHP Ariel Miranda. It's early, but he is 4-of-11 (.364) against southpaws so far this season.
 
 

Does the Rotoworld blurb guy know that Chapman is right handed? 

 

Yeah, he hits lefties well. 

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1 hour ago, Stickfig13 said:

Yeah, he hits lefties well. 

 

I don't think that's why he pointed that out.  The "it's early" part seems to me like he's thinking of the other Matt, Matt Olson (a lefty).

 

Name a RHH that struggles against LHP?

 

Edited by sportsfreak2744

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I don't think that's why he pointed that out.  The "it's early" part seems to me like he's thinking of the other Matt, Matt Olson (a lefty).

 

Name a RHH that struggles against LHP?

 

He pointed it out becuase literally the sentence prior says he faces a lefty in his next matchup.

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Just scooped him up in my league. What can I expect from him ROS?  30 HR 80 RBI 70 R? 

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I dont know, but so far the breakout looks real. Can be anything like you said 70/30/80 but that seems more like a modest estimate. He could also be like 90/35/90 while batting .280 290 which is pretty ellite

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