yort1919

Mitch Haniger 2018 Outlook

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25 minutes ago, yort1919 said:

What will Haniger do in Seattle this year? does he have 20/20 in him?

From what I can find, Mitch Haniger has never attempted 20 steals in a season. He was thrown out 4 out of 9 attempts last season. So it is very unlikely.

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with the addition of Gordon to lead off, I imagine Segura bats 2nd? and then where does Haniger bat? with Cano/Cruz/Seager, I'm guessing Haniger is at least 6th or maybe even lower?

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1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

with the addition of Gordon to lead off, I imagine Segura bats 2nd? and then where does Haniger bat? with Cano/Cruz/Seager, I'm guessing Haniger is at least 6th or maybe even lower?

FWIW rotochamp has him slotted in the 9-hole but looking at the guys 6-9 I dont think there is anything that says he cant/wont be the 6 guy

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Last year, he started the year low in the batting order but they moved him to the 2 hole after he started knocking the ball around... 

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1 hour ago, elsegundo said:

Last year, he started the year low in the batting order but they moved him to the 2 hole after he started knocking the ball around... 

 

Last year he started in the 2 hole and was crushing the ball until he got hurt. When he came back from injury Gamel was hitting well and Mitch was struggling so they moved him around a bit. He ended up towards the bottom for awhile but IIRC he did finish the year strong. 

Not sure what to expect from him this year but I loved him in the 2 hole in the beginning of last year. He was getting on base and scoring runs in front of Cano and Cruz. He may end up there but it won’t be as easy to get a shot as it was last year. 

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I love all the posts mentioning the 2 hole.  Not sure why that's standard lingo, but it's humorous to me.

 

Seattle guy here and yes, I believe the 6 spot makes the most sense for the majority of the season.  Prob low SB and depressed R, but solid HR/RBI/Avg.

 

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2 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Yahoo has him at #231. 20th round for Haniger? I'm all in. 

 

agreed.  Definitely one of the players to target in these later rounds.

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Mitch Haniger, also known as "Bench Heat." I had to do a deeper dive on him for Valentines Day because I'm kinda smitten haha. Most of us know his story, he was a long time minor leaguer with some pedigree (a supplemental 1st rounder) that bought into the flyball revolution in the 2015/2016 offseason and it changed his career trajectory for the best. He's coming off his first full year in the majors where he slashed .282/.352/.491 with 16 HRs and 5 SBs in just 410 PAs. That line was supported by a 7.6 BB% and a 22.7 K%, and along with a .338 BAPIP, he was worth an impressive 129 wRC+ last year. I think he’s a very interesting later round option for 2018. Let's take a deeper dive! 

Looking at Haniger’s batted ball profile, the first thing that jumps out is that he actually lost some of the loft in his swing compared to 2016. His ground-ball rate in 2017 was 44%, that’s up from 38.6% in the majors and 36.4% in AAA in 2016. He subsequently lost some of his fly-ball rate as it fell to 36.7% in 2017 from the low 40’s in 2016 split between AAA and the majors. Note that those marks that he posted in 2017 are pretty solid and obviously work for him, but it would be more encouraging from a power perspective to see him raise that launch angle slightly again closer to 2016 levels. Haniger is mainly a pull hitter but does go up the middle a lot too which helps him support a slightly above average BAPIP. The other thing that helps him support a solid BAPIP is his quality of contact and I think this is an area of strength for Haniger. His 34.7% Hard Contact rate ranked in a tie for 91st best in baseball among those with at least 400 PAs (Haniger had 410) with Gerardo Parra and Matt Kemp, and ranked ahead of names like Anthony Rizzo, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon. That hard contact rate is supported by a slightly above-average 87.59 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.27). That mark is ahead of hitters like Kris Bryant, Andrew Benintendi, and Charlie Blackmon which shows that Bench Heat can sting the ball! His 17.7% soft contact rate is also pretty solid as it ranked among the top 100 best in baseball last year among those with at least 400 PAs.

Let's take a look at Mitch Haniger's plate discipline numbers from last year:

His out-of-zone swing% was 24.5%                                       MLB average is 30%
His zone swing % was 61.7%                                                  MLB average is 65%
His overall swing % was 42%                                                  MLB average is 46%
His out-of-zone contact % was 58.7%                                   MLB average is 66%
His zone contact% was 88.6%                                                MLB average is 87%
His overall contact rate was 79.3%                                        MLB average is 80%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 47%       MLB average is 45%
His swinging-strike% was 8.7%                                              MLB average is 9.5%

As you can see, Haniger is a very patient hitter both inside and outside the strike zone. He shows a great eye at the plate, and rarely offers on pitches outside the zone and that’s likely a very good thing as his contact rate on pitches outside the strike-zone is far below average. The good news is that Haniger is really good on pitches inside the strike zone and that’s what allows him to be successful. You can see that pitchers were forced to challenge Haniger (zone rate was 2% higher than league average) and that’s because Haniger doesn’t offer too much outside the zone. So he’s seeing lots of strikes, doesn’t miss them, and has the ability to punish mistakes…got to love that combo! Also love that his swinging-strike rate is above-average, showing that he isn’t getting fooled much at the plate. Really like Haniger’s skills underneath the hood, he’s a very nice hitter!

Overall I see a guy that does a lot of things well, he’s patient looking for strikes, he doesn’t miss them often, he generates good quality of contact, his launch angle is pretty good with upside for it to be even better which means there’s a higher power upside than he’s shown, and he won’t be a zero in the steals department. Add in that he’s likely to hit in the middle of a pretty solid lineup (roster-resource has him currently hitting 6th behind Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager). I think there’s good potential for Haniger to outperform his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 213). For 2018, I’m going to project Haniger to hit .274/.341 with 24 HRs and 7 SBs.

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homerun today and hitting 4th with cruz out

 

is he gonna have a monster year?

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Remind me again where the nickname bench heat came from.

Edited by Picard56

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27 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Remind me again where the nickname bench heat came from.

 

Courtesy of a rotoworld blurb last year: 

 

  Quote

 

Mitch Haniger went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run and four total RBI in Sunday's win over the Rangers.

Haniger connected for a three-run home run off Cole Hamels in the third inning. The tater was his fourth through the first two weeks of play. The 26-year-old outfielder hit all of five during the 2016 season. While he is unlikely to maintain his current .294/.410/.588 triple-slash, those in deeper AL-only formats looking for a little bit of bench heat might consider giving him a look while he is raking.

 

 
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4 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Courtesy of a rotoworld blurb last year: 

 

  Quote

 

Mitch Haniger went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run and four total RBI in Sunday's win over the Rangers.

Haniger connected for a three-run home run off Cole Hamels in the third inning. The tater was his fourth through the first two weeks of play. The 26-year-old outfielder hit all of five during the 2016 season. While he is unlikely to maintain his current .294/.410/.588 triple-slash, those in deeper AL-only formats looking for a little bit of bench heat might consider giving him a look while he is raking.

 

 

 

 

Not just AL-only formats. DEEPER AL-only formats.

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1 hour ago, RotoGenius said:

 

 

Not just AL-only formats. DEEPER AL-only formats.

 

Rotoworldwhoever wrote that blurb needs to go next level and steer into this. I don't care if Haniger is on pace for a triple crown/MVP, I need daily updates denigrating him as "deep AL only bench heat". Example - "While Haniger went 4/5 with 4 home runs in interleave action against Clayton Kershaw, it should be noted he weakly grounded on in his third at bat and the HRs only went several rows deep into the left filed bleachers. Ride him out, but be ready to drop once this regression persists." 

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It was nice of RW Blurb Writer to acknowledge that BH wouldn’t maintain his current slash of 294/.410/.588 

Edited by BMcP
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9 hours ago, Resident A-hole said:

I may be the only person who started him this week, loving it.

ummm nah but enjoy 

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9 hours ago, King Felix said:

 

Rotoworldwhoever wrote that blurb needs to go next level and steer into this. I don't care if Haniger is on pace for a triple crown/MVP, I need daily updates denigrating him as "deep AL only bench heat". Example - "While Haniger went 4/5 with 4 home runs in interleave action against Clayton Kershaw, it should be noted he weakly grounded on in his third at bat and the HRs only went several rows deep into the left filed bleachers. Ride him out, but be ready to drop once this regression persists." 

 

Actually the writer, or an editor, of that blurb went back and edited it shortly after it was mocked by users in the Haniger 2017 Outlook thread. They changed it to this:

 

Quote

Mitch Haniger went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run and four total RBI in Sunday's win over the Rangers.

 

Haniger connected for a three-run home run off Cole Hamels in the third inning. The tater was his fourth through the first two weeks of play. The 26-year-old outfielder hit all of five during the 2016 season.

 

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