Fuzzy_Slippers

Aaron Nola 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

I don't know about you, but Nola wasn't on waivers at any point last year in my league.  Looking through his splits, hard to imagine he would have been on waivers any time past about June 1st.

 

There were definitely people dropping him at one point. I owned him last season and never thought about it, but I remember people saying he was not very good at one point.

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21 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

There were definitely people dropping him at one point. I owned him last season and never thought about it, but I remember people saying he was not very good at one point.

I got him for free essentially as a toss into a trade.  He had a bad start against Mets on April 21st and then went on DL.  People who owned him year before where he got hurt could of be frustrated and cut ties.  He missed a full month on shelf.  

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10 hours ago, Gravityshifter said:

I see Nola and Quintana going pretty closely together in most drafts. You guys going Nola every time or is it a coin flip?

 

I like Nola better than Quintana mainly because I feel he has more upside and that belief comes from looking at his underlying stats. If you were to ask me which pitcher ranked outside the top 10 SPs is most likely to make the leap this year into the top 10 my answer would be Nola. That being said, these two are pretty similar style pitchers in that they both induce a lot of ground balls and have high strikeout rates all while minimizing the free passes. However, Nola was better at each of those things last year than Quintana. He had a higher GB% of 49.8% last year compared to Quintana's 44.8% and his career 44.3% GB rate. Nola also had a better K/BB ratio of 3.76 compared to Quintana's 2017 K/BB of 3.39 and his career 3.24 numbers. His SwStr% was also significantly higher at 10.8% than Quintana's 8.4% last year and his career 8.5% rate.

 

Don't get me wrong, Quintana is a good pitcher in both real life and fantasy but I think we've seen the best Quintana there is already. The same cannot be said for Nola who has only pitched in 3 bige league seasons but has yet to reach more than 170 innings. If Nola is able to stay healthy this season and pitch 190 innings we could be looking at a guy with 200+ strikeouts with an era in the 3.15-3.30 range and a whip near 1.15 or better. For comparison I believe if Quintana is able to pitch 190 innings, which I feel is likely barring injury, I believe we'll see 200+ strikeouts as well but an era more in the range of 3.40-3.55 and a whip closer to 1.20. Those are still really good numbers and I believe he's a good SP2 to have but I'm still taking Nola all day.

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14 hours ago, Gravityshifter said:

I see Nola and Quintana going pretty closely together in most drafts. You guys going Nola every time or is it a coin flip?

 

Nola way over Quintana.  I say that as someone who thinks Quintana will have likely significantly better numbers this year than last also...

 

Honestly I have about 10 guys between the two including but not limited to: Castillo, Archer, Paxton, Keuchel, Godley and Arrieta (yes I'd rather have Nola than any of those)...  I have Nola around #15 SP and Quintana around #25

Edited by LJJr
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Anyone have the nards to make Nola their 1?

 

 

If you are smart rounds 7 and on you really could be sitting pretty

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14 minutes ago, biggie80 said:

Anyone have the nards to make Nola their 1?

 

 

If you are smart rounds 7 and on you really could be sitting pretty

Round 7 is exactly where I took him 2 weeks ago in my 12 man. I think he’s probably risen since then. There’s been a lot written about him recently and I’m happy I did my draft early.

 

Not technically my 1 ( took Greinke and Paxton the two rounds before ) but I did punt on pitching early and then go hard after it from round 5 onwards. Had a touch choice between Paxton and Nola and was happy to see Nola still there a round later. 

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18 hours ago, biggie80 said:

Anyone have the nards to make Nola their 1?

 

 

If you are smart rounds 7 and on you really could be sitting pretty

 

 

Why not? Zig when zag.....

 

Pitchers are being taken to early IMO. You have to make sure your first 3 are around 320-350 in ERA and total at least 525 k's though

 

I think Jake signing helps Nola a lot but still have him ranked around Dallas, Hill, Ohtani, about 23-24

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I really like Nola, but I'm not sure if I should label him a keeper or just try to draft him back. With 5 keepers, I think it would have to be between him or Yelich, and I can't bring myself to risk losing Yelich.

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Fun Fact

 

Nola was solid with the 3.54 ERA last year

 

For the 2 late season Miami games he got rocked in, make those games 2 ER each (vs 6 and 7) and Nola would have had a 3.05 ERA, yup. just like that!

Edited by rotodr

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10 minutes ago, rotodr said:

Fun Fact

 

Nola was solid with the 3.54 ERA last year

 

For the 2 late season Miami games he got rocked in, make those games 2 ER each (vs 6 and 7) and Nola would have had a 3.05 ERA, yup. just like that!

I don't find this fact fun lol. He almost tanked my season and playoff seeding with those bad starts right at the end. 

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12 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

I don't find this fact fun lol. He almost tanked my season and playoff seeding with those bad starts right at the end. 

 

 

Ha I hear ya!

 

Fun for 18 owners then 

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24 minutes ago, biggie80 said:

Nola went in the late 4th last night in one of my leagues, way to rich for me.......

 

 

In my mocks he has been going around 70, that might be a tad low not sure

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I'm hoping to grab him in the 5th of my 14 team keeper (62 overall), after hopefully getting one of Bumgarner, Thor or Stras as my ace.  Really not a huge fan of the bats that will probably be around there (Buxton, Andrus, Schoop, Cano, Myers).  Will be a tough call if Pham or Khris Davis are still there.

Edited by 89Topps

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I'm keeping Nola as my SP2 and Sale as my SP1 obviously in a points keeper H2H league.  Hopefully Nola will be good again this coming year.

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11 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

Does anyone think there's a chance that Nola ends up with a better year than guys ahead of him like deGrom?

Nola shouldn't be too far behind. deGrom has better velocity and is probably the better overall pitcher, but it's not a huge gap.

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Nola shouldn't be too far behind. deGrom has better velocity and is probably the better overall pitcher, but it's not a huge gap.

That's what I was thinking. I guess both might have some durability questions (one being on the Mets, the other not having made it past 170 IP yet). But I really like Nola a lot.

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Nola's changeup looks really sharp in pre-season.  If he has that now, then he's top 10.

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8 hours ago, Magoo said:

Nola's changeup looks really sharp in pre-season.  If he has that now, then he's top 10.

this is key to elevating him to the next level. it showed flashes last year but lacked consistency. If he has truly figured it out then look out.

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Pulled after 68 pitchers in the 6th inning with a 5-0 lead.

 

Welcome to the Gabe “Analytics” Kapler era.

 

We’re fooked.  No quality starts allowed.

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33 minutes ago, FUM said:

Pulled after 68 pitchers in the 6th inning with a 5-0 lead.

 

Welcome to the Gabe “Analytics” Kapler era.

 

We’re fooked.  No quality starts allowed.

Hopefully just to keep him fresh for the rest of the year? This better not happen all season.....

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On 3/16/2018 at 10:53 AM, biggie80 said:

Anyone have the nards to make Nola their 1?

 

 

If you are smart rounds 7 and on you really could be sitting pretty

Yes in my 12 man. 

 

However it is innings capped and we have both saves and holds so i will be stuffing a lot of innings with RP and I'm not as worried about having a horse. 

 

But i think he is ok in any league other than weekly moves. Maybe even there. As the other guy said, zig when others zag. 

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