Fuzzy_Slippers

Justin Verlander 2018 Outlook

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Verly had a pretty good season in 2017. 

 

ERA - 3.36

IP - 204

K/9 - 9.57 

BB/9 - 3.15

HR/9 - 1.18

 

Those are some pretty good numbers. His BB/9 was higher than we are used to seeing from him, but it's passable.

 

Steamer's projections for 2018
 

ERA - 3.94

IP - 204

K/9 - 10.14

BB/9 - 2.94

HR/9 - 1.32

 

Basically, Steamer thinks he will strike out more batters, walk less batters, but give up more homers. I don't think he's a 3.94 ERA guy, he should finish with a 3.4 - 3.5 ERA.  For me, I would be fine having him as my SP1 in 12-team leagues. He seems to be going in the 4th or 5th rounds in most mocks, which is where he should go. 

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If he gives me 200IP and over 200Ks, I'll take an ERA of 3.9, no problem. Especially considering I know he's better than that. Should be an interesting year for JV!

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Maximizes his abilities and knowledge and he is such a tough competitor, buying again this season.

 

Was able to make adjustments after struggling at times last season and really came through for me at the end.  Should get enough run support and if it's early in the game I like my odds on getting a win. 

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Interesting that Minute Maid park has come in at a pitcher's park for the past 3 seasons.  No idea why it's such a pitcher's park but 3-straight years it probably can't be a coincidence.

 

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8 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Interesting that Minute Maid park has come in at a pitcher's park for the past 3 seasons.  No idea why it's such a pitcher's park but 3-straight years it probably can't be a coincidence.

 

 

I think it's the batter's eye. 

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Just hoping the playoff run doesn't pump up his value heading into the draft season. Hoping to capitalize on the age risk, which to me is no problem. Hasn't lost much of his "stuff" at all and showed he's capable of adjusting mid season even if he struggles.

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6 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Just hoping the playoff run doesn't pump up his value heading into the draft season. Hoping to capitalize on the age risk, which to me is no problem. Hasn't lost much of his "stuff" at all and showed he's capable of adjusting mid season even if he struggles.

 

I think the fact that he was a beast once he went to Houston will pump up his value, let alone the playoffs. I don’t think he’ll be cheap, but he’ll be a back end sp1 in most leagues (draft wise )

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On 12/23/2017 at 1:36 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Verly had a pretty good season in 2017. 

 

ERA - 3.36

IP - 204

K/9 - 9.57 

BB/9 - 3.15

HR/9 - 1.18

 

Those are some pretty good numbers. His BB/9 was higher than we are used to seeing from him, but it's passable.

 

 

 

great numbers considering how bad he was early in the season.

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10 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

great numbers considering how bad he was early in the season.

Definitely. If he can repeat those numbers, he is definitely an SP1. Plus, he should win 15 - 18 games. 

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His age has to be a concern.  An aging pitcher's performance can drop precipitously.

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My concern is there will be no discount. If he’s going 5th to 6th round or $15-$20 then he has little room for error. 

 

Pass

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Would you guys be comfortable having him as your SP1? He should throw 200+ innings and could win 15 - 18 games. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA suggest that he was more of a 3.8 - 4.20 ERA pitcher in 2017. I'm hoping for an ERA closer to 3.5. 

 

Looking at his splits, he was pretty much dominant at home but rather mediocre on the road (2.45 ERA at home, 4.16 ERA away). Plus, as we all know, he was very bad in the first half but was lights out in the second half. Not too sure what to make of him.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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The last two years he was kind of rubbish first half and then turned it on second half, no?
Also the perrenial age question looms. Especially when you're gambling on him as your SP1
 

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ERA is a complete crapshoot with the new juiced balls.  Im going for as many 180+ strikeout guys I can get.  Verlander will be my first pick in my keeper league if he is available. 

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Would you guys be comfortable having him as your SP1? He should throw 200+ innings and could win 15 - 18 games. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA suggest that he was more of a 3.8 - 4.20 ERA pitcher in 2017. I'm hoping for an ERA closer to 3.5. 

 

Looking at his splits, he was pretty much dominant at home but rather mediocre on the road (2.45 ERA at home, 4.16 ERA away). Plus, as we all know, he was very bad in the first half but was lights out in the second half. Not too sure what to make of him.

 

He had one truly horrible start on the road last season (4 IP/9R vs Cle). In his other 17 road starts he had a 3.55 ERA. 

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I get the feeling that he was just going through the motions in Detroit on a team that was going nowhere. You're going to get his best when he's focused and has something to play for. That's what I believe happened in Houston. As long as his stuff is there (and it is) and he is healthy, I am fine with him being my SP1. However, I would probably be drafting another starter with similar value to pair with him just in case. 

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10 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

I get the feeling that he was just going through the motions in Detroit on a team that was going nowhere. You're going to get his best when he's focused and has something to play for. That's what I believe happened in Houston. As long as his stuff is there (and it is) and he is healthy, I am fine with him being my SP1. However, I would probably be drafting another starter with similar value to pair with him just in case. 

 

Yeah the "stats are everything" people look at such a small picture.  Never ever underestimate motivation. 

 

Now I don't think Verlander was knowingly not trying per se in Detroit near the end.  More like you go out and do your job and that is it.  But when switched to a contender it becomes more about the team than just you and you are giving more of yourself in games than you ever knew was possible.  The intensity increases focus too.  And players feed off each other and there is electricity in the air that just plain isn't there with a team playing out the sting.  Human nature at work.

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On 2/2/2018 at 7:35 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Would you guys be comfortable having him as your SP1? He should throw 200+ innings and could win 15 - 18 games. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA suggest that he was more of a 3.8 - 4.20 ERA pitcher in 2017. I'm hoping for an ERA closer to 3.5. 

 

Looking at his splits, he was pretty much dominant at home but rather mediocre on the road (2.45 ERA at home, 4.16 ERA away). Plus, as we all know, he was very bad in the first half but was lights out in the second half. Not too sure what to make of him.

 

 

Sure, I have taken him as my 1 twice so far couple with a Keuchel, Nola or Ray, money in the bank!

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Verlander dabbles in data visualization in his spare time...

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Watching JV in the spring has me thinking he may end up top 3 easy this year, dude is just pure filth!

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I like him and will be targeting him but I think it’s possible you can get pretty close production with archer a couple rounds later as far as durability and k’s are concerned. Probably has a better shot at wins but I’ve stopped trying to predict that category lol

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1 hour ago, ktierne3 said:

I like him and will be targeting him but I think it’s possible you can get pretty close production with archer a couple rounds later as far as durability and k’s are concerned. Probably has a better shot at wins but I’ve stopped trying to predict that category lol

 

 

Probably more wins......????

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