bgar15

Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

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18 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:


im likely taking one last. You can stream QBs these days

 

Palmer- Mcown-Goff-keenum-Bortles-Watsun were all on the waivers and all streamable at one point

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Palmer- Mcown-Goff-keenum-Bortles-Watsun were all on the waivers and all streamable at one point

 

watson was taken in all mine, nut those other guys, yeah. I streamed in 1 week. Lost cuz of Gronk and Kamara being out, but QB was fine.

 

Cool story, I knnow

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10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Palmer- Mcown-Goff-keenum-Bortles-Watsun were all on the waivers and all streamable at one point

 

Same could be said at TE. I know some people are infatuated with the Gronk's, Kelce and Ertz's of the world, but unless someone falls in my lap, I'm waiting for a TE. Next year, there could be some nice up and coming guys and steady eddy type guys at the end of your draft. Guys like Doyle (Luck will be back?), OJ Howard, Njoku (This guy is a freak), ASJ (better QB?), Ebron (Has come on in recent weeks), Henry, Reed, Eifert(I know...I know...lol Coming off injuries, may be undervalued, especially Reed)

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6 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Same could be said at TE. I know some people are infatuated with the Gronk's, Kelce and Ertz's of the world, but unless someone falls in my lap, I'm waiting for a TE. Next year, there could be some nice up and coming guys and steady eddy type guys at the end of your draft. Guys like Doyle (Luck will be back?), OJ Howard, Njoku (This guy is a freak), ASJ (better QB?), Ebron (Has come on in recent weeks), Henry, Reed, Eifert(I know...I know...lol Coming off injuries, may be undervalued, especially Reed)

 

I used to stream te because the position results weekly are very random but last 2yrs reached for kelce because he is essentially a wr in the KC offense and consistently gets targets. So I'm ok paying up for the week to week o=consistent player 

Edited by dashoe
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I feel like Reed should just retire. His body isnt made for football.

 

Having an elite TE is pretty dope. I've come around on it in the last few years.

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My top 20 in a full ppr 

 

1 Leveon Bell

2 Todd Gurley 

3 Zeke Elliott 

4 Antonio Brown 

5 David Johnson 

6 DeAndre Hopkins

7 Julio Jones 

8 Kareem Hunt 

9 Alvin Kamara

10 Odell Beckham 

11 Leonard Fournette

12 Melvin Gordon 

13 Michael Thomas 

14 Lesean Mccoy 

15 Rob Gronkowski  

16 AJ Green 

17 Dalvin Cook

18 Aaron Rodgers 

19 Mike Evans

20 Mark Ingram

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Not sure if it is just me, but no chance I'm taking Hunt next year at that price. Is Ware coming back?

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2 hours ago, Diddy said:

My top 20 in a full ppr 

 

1 Leveon Bell

2 Todd Gurley 

3 Zeke Elliott 

4 Antonio Brown 

5 David Johnson 

6 DeAndre Hopkins

7 Julio Jones 

8 Kareem Hunt 

9 Alvin Kamara

10 Odell Beckham 

11 Leonard Fournette

12 Melvin Gordon 

13 Michael Thomas 

14 Lesean Mccoy 

15 Rob Gronkowski  

16 AJ Green 

17 Dalvin Cook

18 Aaron Rodgers 

19 Mike Evans

20 Mark Ingram

Why is Julio so high?

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Why is Julio so high?

he has 83 grabs for 1350 yards and people say this is a down year so i would probably switch him with beckham because of the tds but i think he should still be up there 

 

i want to say he will have a bounce back year next year but i dont consider this year all that bad 

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10 hours ago, Diddy said:

My top 20 in a full ppr 

 

1 Leveon Bell

2 Todd Gurley 

3 Zeke Elliott 

4 Antonio Brown 

5 David Johnson 

6 DeAndre Hopkins

7 Julio Jones 

8 Kareem Hunt 

9 Alvin Kamara

10 Odell Beckham 

11 Leonard Fournette

12 Melvin Gordon 

13 Michael Thomas 

14 Lesean Mccoy 

15 Rob Gronkowski  

16 AJ Green 

17 Dalvin Cook

18 Aaron Rodgers 

19 Mike Evans

20 Mark Ingram

 

 

I don't really understand why people keep falling for the Julio Jones trap. He's always hurt and is really unreliable. He's good for a great game or two but definitely not worth a first round pick at this point.

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I agree that the OP's list is pretty accurate.

 

Assuming I go RB/WR or vice versa in the 1st and 2nd, looking at this I already know who my 3rd round target will be... Jordan Howard.  His situation couldn't be much worse than this year and he was a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.  There will be a new coaching staff, O-Line will be back healthy, hopefully bring in a decent WR and Trubisky can't get much worse.

 

I think he'll be a value pick in the 3rd.

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Besides the Packers the Rams may have the hardest rushing schedule next year (based on 2017 results).  They get the #1 Eagles x1, #2 Vikings x1, #4 Cards x2, #6 Panthers x1, #7 Browns x1, #8 Falcons x1, and #10 Steelers x1.  DJ and the Cards get a lot of the same matchups but they swap out #1 Eagles -> #29 Redskins, #2 Vikings -> #20 GB, and #4 Cards x2 -> #25 Rams x2.  Eagles look to have the easiest rushing SOS in 2018.

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My standard rankings right now.  Assuming no one changes teams...

 

1. Gurley - Monster talent, monster offense, coming off a monster year.

2. Zeke - Will be back with a vengeance.

3. DJ - Questions around coach and QB.

4. Bell - Worry about Ben and his massive workload in 2017.

-

5. Barkley (unless drafted by Cleveland) - Maybe the most talented RB in the league next year. Praying the 49ers can get him.

6. Kamara - 17.9 ppg after their bye, if you take out the Atlanta game when he left early with a concussion. 

7. Hopkins - #1 WR in 2017 with only 6 weeks of real QB play.  Give edge over AB in standard because of TD output.

8. AB - Questions around Ben, still a surefire high end WR1 though.

-

9. Ingram - Has earned it.

10. Fournette - Down a tier because of injury concerns.

11. Cook - Same as Fournette.  Get healthy.

12. Hunt - Became volume dependent at end of year.  QB change incoming.  Still cedes a lot to Chark.

13. Gordon - Ceding more work to Ekeler. Still barely broke 1k yards rushing.

14. Henry (assume Murray leaves) - Size speed and strength, one of the most talented backs in the league.

-

15. McCoy - 1,100 rush + 400 rec + 8 TD = very solid 2017.  No signs of slowing yet, but injuries become more likely with age. I don't want to be stuck holding the hot potato.

16. Howard - TDs came just like we knew they would.  Offense should hopefully improve.  1,200 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable return for a nice low end RB1.

17. Freeman - Missed 2 games but finished behind Howard, Lewis, Hyde, Miller, CMac, and even Zeke.  Ceiling is a low RB1 ceiling sans Shanahan. 

18. Tyreek - WR5 in 2016 and WR3 in 2017.  He's for real and here to stay. 

19. Rodgers - More points per game than QB1 Wilson.  Weekly value over replacement too much to let slip out of the top 20, for me personally.

20. Julio - 1364 yards and 3 TDs in 2017.  Even granting a boost in 2018, it's not enough over mid-round WRs to justify a first round pick anymore.

 

Flip a coin between AJG and Julio.  Davante Adams is my next WR after these two, over Evans, Allen, Thomas, Cooks, etc.

Collins and Drake are close on this list.

Hyde and Miller are close as well, if nothing around them changes, which I doubt.

 

Mixon is a wildcard.  Maybe put him up with McCoy, or maybe keep him in the 3rd round, I don't know.  He averaged 16+ rushes, 2+ rec, and 12 standard points per game after Hill went out.  That was only 4 games though which isn't a ton.  Need to see Marvin Lewis go and OL come in this off-season for me to trust him.  Bengals were dead last in total number of plays run (under 57 per game, league average is 63), which lead to the lowest amount of offensive yardage in the league (275 per game. League average is about 330), and 28th most points scored (only 17.3 per game. Average is about 21).  I think he is a top tier talent , but the situation is so miserable.  For now.  Will be watching closely.

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1. Kamara

2. Kamara

3. Kamara

4. Kamara

5. Kamara

6. Kamara 

7. Kamara

8. Kamara

9. Kamara 

10. Kamara

11. Kamara

12. Kamara

 

 

 

if you follow this draft strategy the rest of the picks won’t matter.

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The dramatic shift in values for rbs and wr this year is pretty crazy. 

 

Next year you could end up with ODB, Julio and Evans as your first three picks and most would call it a bad start. 

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2 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

The dramatic shift in values for rbs and wr this year is pretty crazy. 

 

Next year you could end up with ODB, Julio and Evans as your first three picks and most would call it a bad start. 

 

Cuz it would be a bad start.

 

Keenan Allen with 156 standard points was WR4 overall this year.  That's barely top 12 last year.  Defenses are getting better and stud WRs have declined for 2 years now.  The league is shifting back to stud workhorse RBs.

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22 minutes ago, Most Guruist said:

Besides the Packers the Rams may have the hardest rushing schedule next year (based on 2017 results).  They get the #1 Eagles x1, #2 Vikings x1, #4 Cards x2, #6 Panthers x1, #7 Browns x1, #8 Falcons x1, and #10 Steelers x1.  DJ and the Cards get a lot of the same matchups but they swap out #1 Eagles -> #29 Redskins, #2 Vikings -> #20 GB, and #4 Cards x2 -> #25 Rams x2.  Eagles look to have the easiest rushing SOS in 2018.

You didn't learn anything from this year, huh?

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3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Cuz it would be a bad start.

 

Keenan Allen with 156 standard points was WR4 overall this year.  That's barely top 12 last year.  Defenses are getting better and stud WRs have declined for 2 years now.  The league is shifting back to stud workhorse RBs.

 

Thats my point. 

 

If you started off this year with any trio of Green/Evans/ODB/Julio people would think you locked up the title.

 

Even in ppr RBs have made a huge comeback this year. 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

My standard rankings right now.  Assuming no one changes teams...

 

1. Gurley - Monster talent, monster offense, coming off a monster year.

2. Zeke - Will be back with a vengeance.

3. DJ - Questions around coach and QB.

4. Bell - Worry about Ben and his massive workload in 2017.

-

5. Barkley (unless drafted by Cleveland) - Maybe the most talented RB in the league next year. Praying the 49ers can get him.

6. Kamara - 17.9 ppg after their bye, if you take out the Atlanta game when he left early with a concussion. 

7. Hopkins - #1 WR in 2017 with only 6 weeks of real QB play.  Give edge over AB in standard because of TD output.

8. AB - Questions around Ben, still a surefire high end WR1 though.

-

9. Ingram - Has earned it.

10. Fournette - Down a tier because of injury concerns.

11. Cook - Same as Fournette.  Get healthy.

12. Hunt - Became volume dependent at end of year.  QB change incoming.  Still cedes a lot to Chark.

13. Gordon - Ceding more work to Ekeler. Still barely broke 1k yards rushing.

14. Henry (assume Murray leaves) - Size speed and strength, one of the most talented backs in the league.

-

15. McCoy - 1,100 rush + 400 rec + 8 TD = very solid 2017.  No signs of slowing yet, but injuries become more likely with age. I don't want to be stuck holding the hot potato.

16. Howard - TDs came just like we knew they would.  Offense should hopefully improve.  1,200 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable return for a nice low end RB1.

17. Freeman - Missed 2 games but finished behind Howard, Lewis, Hyde, Miller, CMac, and even Zeke.  Ceiling is a low RB1 ceiling sans Shanahan. 

18. Tyreek - WR5 in 2016 and WR3 in 2017.  He's for real and here to stay. 

19. Rodgers - More points per game than QB1 Wilson.  Weekly value over replacement too much to let slip out of the top 20, for me personally.

20. Julio - 1364 yards and 3 TDs in 2017.  Even granting a boost in 2018, it's not enough over mid-round WRs to justify a first round pick anymore.

 

Flip a coin between AJG and Julio.  Davante Adams is my next WR after these two, over Evans, Allen, Thomas, Cooks, etc.

Collins and Drake are close on this list.

Hyde and Miller are close as well, if nothing around them changes, which I doubt.

 

Mixon is a wildcard.  Maybe put him up with McCoy, or maybe keep him in the 3rd round, I don't know.  He averaged 16+ rushes, 2+ rec, and 12 standard points per game after Hill went out.  That was only 4 games though which isn't a ton.  Need to see Marvin Lewis go and OL come in this off-season for me to trust him.  Bengals were dead last in total number of plays run (under 57 per game, league average is 63), which lead to the lowest amount of offensive yardage in the league (275 per game. League average is about 330), and 28th most points scored (only 17.3 per game. Average is about 21).  I think he is a top tier talent , but the situation is so miserable.  For now.  Will be watching closely.

 

Maybe it's just me but I would never touch Tyreek that early. Although I will say he's certainly trending in the right direction, I'd have to see evidence of more usage before I spend that early of a pick - 105 targets isn't going to cut it for me. If he isn't scoring that long bomb of a TD, he isn't doing much for your team. Much like a TY Hilton type IMO.

Edited by bgar15
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16 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

You didn't learn anything from this year, huh?

 

A point, sir.  Do you have any?

 

SOS will continue to evolve over the offseason up until the day of our FF draft.  If I have two people graded similarly I will take the person with the easier SOS.

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5 minutes ago, Most Guruist said:

 

A point, sir.  Do you have any?

 

SOS will continue to evolve over the offseason up until the day of our FF draft.  If I have two people graded similarly I will take the person with the easier SOS.

My point is Gurley had one of the toughest schedules this year (31st, to be exact) and it had absolutely 0 impact on him. 

 

Some players are matchup proof and he proved this year he is one of them. You must have been one of those people telling everyone to sell high after 4 games. 

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41 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

My standard rankings right now.  Assuming no one changes teams...

 

1. Gurley - Monster talent, monster offense, coming off a monster year.

2. Zeke - Will be back with a vengeance.

3. DJ - Questions around coach and QB.

4. Bell - Worry about Ben and his massive workload in 2017.

-

5. Barkley (unless drafted by Cleveland) - Maybe the most talented RB in the league next year. Praying the 49ers can get him.

6. Kamara - 17.9 ppg after their bye, if you take out the Atlanta game when he left early with a concussion. 

7. Hopkins - #1 WR in 2017 with only 6 weeks of real QB play.  Give edge over AB in standard because of TD output.

8. AB - Questions around Ben, still a surefire high end WR1 though.

-

9. Ingram - Has earned it.

10. Fournette - Down a tier because of injury concerns.

11. Cook - Same as Fournette.  Get healthy.

12. Hunt - Became volume dependent at end of year.  QB change incoming.  Still cedes a lot to Chark.

13. Gordon - Ceding more work to Ekeler. Still barely broke 1k yards rushing.

14. Henry (assume Murray leaves) - Size speed and strength, one of the most talented backs in the league.

-

15. McCoy - 1,100 rush + 400 rec + 8 TD = very solid 2017.  No signs of slowing yet, but injuries become more likely with age. I don't want to be stuck holding the hot potato.

16. Howard - TDs came just like we knew they would.  Offense should hopefully improve.  1,200 yards and 8 TDs is a reasonable return for a nice low end RB1.

17. Freeman - Missed 2 games but finished behind Howard, Lewis, Hyde, Miller, CMac, and even Zeke.  Ceiling is a low RB1 ceiling sans Shanahan. 

18. Tyreek - WR5 in 2016 and WR3 in 2017.  He's for real and here to stay. 

19. Rodgers - More points per game than QB1 Wilson.  Weekly value over replacement too much to let slip out of the top 20, for me personally.

20. Julio - 1364 yards and 3 TDs in 2017.  Even granting a boost in 2018, it's not enough over mid-round WRs to justify a first round pick anymore.

 

Flip a coin between AJG and Julio.  Davante Adams is my next WR after these two, over Evans, Allen, Thomas, Cooks, etc.

Collins and Drake are close on this list.

Hyde and Miller are close as well, if nothing around them changes, which I doubt.

 

Mixon is a wildcard.  Maybe put him up with McCoy, or maybe keep him in the 3rd round, I don't know.  He averaged 16+ rushes, 2+ rec, and 12 standard points per game after Hill went out.  That was only 4 games though which isn't a ton.  Need to see Marvin Lewis go and OL come in this off-season for me to trust him.  Bengals were dead last in total number of plays run (under 57 per game, league average is 63), which lead to the lowest amount of offensive yardage in the league (275 per game. League average is about 330), and 28th most points scored (only 17.3 per game. Average is about 21).  I think he is a top tier talent , but the situation is so miserable.  For now.  Will be watching closely.

 

Also, in what league was Tyreek a top 5 WR in 2016?!?

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9 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

My point is Gurley had one of the toughest schedules this year (31st, to be exact) and it had absolutely 0 impact on him. 

 

Some players are matchup proof and he proved this year he is one of them. You must have been one of those people telling everyone to sell high after 4 games. 

What matchups would you be sitting DJ in next year?  To be certain, I still have a lot of work to do on my SOS projections, and I wasn't saying people shouldn't be high on Gurley next year, I simply posted what a tough schedule he has next year.  Bell also has an easier SOS.  Blasphemy, I know.

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9 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

Also, in what league was Tyreek a top 5 WR in 2016?!?

Just guessing. But a return yardage league?

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8 hours ago, Most Guruist said:

What matchups would you be sitting DJ in next year?  To be certain, I still have a lot of work to do on my SOS projections, and I wasn't saying people shouldn't be high on Gurley next year, I simply posted what a tough schedule he has next year.  Bell also has an easier SOS.  Blasphemy, I know.

 

I agree with both sides of this argument. You can't put too much stock into SOS because it's subject to so much change every year. As well a lot of the top rbs more and more are dual threats that can accumulate big numbers with check downs and screens.

 

I do think it holds more value in the WR debate though. We all seen what can and usually does happen to a number one WR when matched up against a top corner like rhodes or Ramsey. 

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