bgar15

Early 2018 Top 20 Rankings

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32 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

1.  Bell

2.  Gurley

3.  Zeke

4.  DJ

5.  Brown

6.  Hopkins

7.  Odell

8.  Gordon

9.  Kamara

10.  Fournette

11.  Barkley

12.  Green

13.  Cook

14.  Julio

15.  Howard

16.  Freeman

17.  Hunt

18.  M Thomas

19.  Gronk

20.  K Allen

 

 

 

Pair any 2 of these with Garoppolo, guaranteed championship.

I’m hoping to get Garoppolo or Watson in round 5+ (Watson over Garoppolo)

 

Howard is going to be polarizing, I think he’ll fall to late 2nd or early 3rd.  The Bears will probably fire their coach, if they replace him with an “offensive minded” coach I might bite on him in the 2nd.

 

The guys you list behind Howard, I’d take before Howard.

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17 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I completely disagree with that premise rb is one of the few positions where the next guy up will get carry volume. he may not get all of the touches but he will get carries because teams have to be able to run the ball in some fashion and the rb is the guy who gets the carries.   Wr targets can be distributed over the entire offense to rb/te/wr so the next man up may not get the target vlm or any target vlm. QB is a close one but if the backup is not very good the OC will scheme to limit his ineffectiveness by reducing pass attempts.  A pass catching TE doesnt have to be replace the next man up can simply be used for blocking.  Next man up rb's are the more predictable in terms of their vlm. There are too many examples every season where a waiver wire or end of draft rb emerges as fantasy relevant or even elite in production vs a wr.

I think we are both looking at this differently.  You are talking about picking up a RB or WR when the starter goes down and yes I agree the next RB is going to get a certain amount of touches which in some cases is guaranteed production,  but that is not always the case.  What happens if the back up is terrible or it becomes a useless timeshare.  What if its one of those rare years where not really any RBs get hurt.  WRs emerge every year even without injuries to guys on their team.  

 

Anyways, like many others have mentioned, this strategy may have worked very well for me but not for others.  Just like drafting 3 WRs in the first 4 rounds worked for some other guy, but never worked for me in the few times I tried it.  Heck, I have seen some claim to have won with the zero RB strategy! Alot of it comes down to being lucky as well.  

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If Watson is deemed healthy before the season starts there's no way he gets out of the second round. I realize it was a small sample, but depending on whether you're in a 4 or 6 point TD league, in the games Watson started he averaged 4-5 more than Wilson, who is the second highest scoring QB. Figure that over 16 games and it's the same difference as Julio/AJ and a top waiver wire WR. So I can grab a WR off waivers with a good matchup who's gonna be as close to Julio/AJ as the number 2 QB is to Watson. The talk of Watson MAYBE being worth a pick in the 3rd/4th is absurd. In any league with normal scoring you'll be EXTREMELY lucky to get him at 20. My guess is as we get closer to actual drafts (and he's 100% healthy of course) there will be a lot of talk of him going in the first.

Edited by BGDDYKWL
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14 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

If Watson is deemed healthy before the season starts there's no way he gets out of the second round. I realize it was a small sample, but depending on whether you're in a 4 or 6 point TD league, in the games Watson started he averaged 4-5 more than Wilson, who is the second highest scoring QB. Figure that over 16 games and it's the same difference as Julio/AJ and a top waiver wire WR. So I can grab a WR off waivers with a good matchup who's gonna be as close to Julio/AJ as the number 2 QB is to Watson. The talk of Watson MAYBE being worth a pick in the 3rd/4th is absurd. In any league with normal scoring you'll be EXTREMELY lucky to get him at 20. My guess is as we get closer to actual drafts (and he's 100% healthy of course) there will be a lot of talk of him going in the first.

QB being taken 1st overall? One who just suffered a major injury and had half a seasons worth of actual game experience? 

 

I would love to play in the league. 

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Assuming standard scoring....

 

1.) Ezekiel Elliott
2.) LeVeon Bell
3.) Todd Gurley

4.) David Johnson
5.) DeAndre Hopkins
6.) Kareem Hunt
7.) Antonio Brown

8.) Odell Beckham

9.) Melvin Gordon
10.) Alvin Kamara

11.) Leonard Fournette

12.) LeSean McCoy

13.) Rob Gronkowski
14.) Julio Jones

15.) Michael Thomas
16.) Dalvin Cook
17.) Jordan Howard

18.) A.J. Green

19.) Mark Ingram
20.) Saquon Barkley

 

Just Missed: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Devonta Freeman

 

Would add Henry to the above list if Tenn moves on from Murray
 

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19 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

If Watson is deemed healthy before the season starts there's no way he gets out of the second round. I realize it was a small sample, but depending on whether you're in a 4 or 6 point TD league, in the games Watson started he averaged 4-5 more than Wilson, who is the second highest scoring QB. Figure that over 16 games and it's the same difference as Julio/AJ and a top waiver wire WR. So I can grab a WR off waivers with a good matchup who's gonna be as close to Julio/AJ as the number 2 QB is to Watson. The talk of Watson MAYBE being worth a pick in the 3rd/4th is absurd. In any league with normal scoring you'll be EXTREMELY lucky to get him at 20. My guess is as we get closer to actual drafts (and he's 100% healthy of course) there will be a lot of talk of him going in the first.

 

I feel like he's gonna be a huge dissapontment then next year, from a fantasy perspective.

 

I probably won't end up with him in any leagues with his price and risk.

 

Yes he was great but the sample size was so small as you pointed out. As well he has the risk of re injury to the acl 

 

Edited by Nyblazer11235

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11 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

QB being taken 1st overall? One who just suffered a major injury and had half a seasons worth of actual game experience? 

 

I would love to play in the league. 

Didn't say first overall, I said I'd be absolutely shocked if he made it out of the second round, and compared him to receivers that the OP had at 12/14.

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9 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

 

I feel like he's gonna be a huge dissapontment then next year, from a fantasy perspective.

 

I probably won't end up with him in any leagues with his price and risk.

 

Yes he was great but the sample size was so small as you pointed out. As well he has the risk of re injury to the acl 

 

The injury risk is the biggest concern to me. Sample size I understand, but his wheels keep his floor high enough IMO. I completely understand the concerns, but it reminds me of the talk on Vick the year after he blew up in Philly (2010 maybe?).

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im gonna agree with oliminator here first is way too high, hell even second is. Guys like Brady and Rodgers rarely go that high. 

 

The gap in value between a top rb and wr to average ones is much greater then in qbs. 

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1 minute ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

im gonna agree with oliminator here first is way too high, hell even second is. Guys like Brady and Rodgers rarely go that high. 

 

The gap in value between a top rb and wr to average ones is much greater then in qbs. 

Small sample size granted, along with injury concerns. But Watson averaged 8.5 more points per game than Brady this year. That's essentially the same difference as McCoy and Darkwa, or AJ Green and Cole Beasley. That difference is monumental.

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25 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

The gap in value between a top rb and wr to average ones is much greater then in qbs. 

 

A Zeke-level RB to an average one is the biggest gap. 

 

An AB level wr to an average one is smaller than Rodgers to an average QB. 

 

Difference tho is its a lot easier to stream qb than it is wr. You can find top 8 qbs on waivers all year just by playing matchups. Bortles was on a lot of championship teams this year. 

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16 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

A Zeke-level RB to an average one is the biggest gap. 

 

An AB level wr to an average one is smaller than Rodgers to an average QB. 

 

Difference tho is its a lot easier to stream qb than it is wr. You can find top 8 qbs on waivers all year just by playing matchups. Bortles was on a lot of championship teams this year. 

 

 

I doubt this is the place, but I'd challenge you to prove all (or any) of these claims, with real world FOREsight examples.

If your justification of why you should draft a RB early involves the names Kamara, Hunt, Ingram, McCaffrey, Hyde, or Fournette, then you're doing it wrong.

If your definition of a 'Zeke-level RB' is a handful of guys draft 3-5 rounds after Zeke, then again... you're starting from backwards logic, and this won't go anywhere.

 

Scoring settings are always the largest factor in these type of debates, as well as your definition of 'average' and how you measure 'top 8' (EOS, PPG, Weekly, Matchups etc etc) but I'm struggling to find any scenario where Rodgers was more beneficial than AB was this year.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I'm struggling to find any scenario where Rodgers was more beneficial than AB was this year.

 

Well obviously you won't find an example this year because of the timing of their injuries. 

 

In 2016, standard scoring, the difference between wr1 and wr24 was 76 points.  Qb1 to qb12 was 115 points. There is no scientific reason why I choose wr24 or qb12 to define the "average" replacement level player and I don't want to get hung up on that. Just illustrating how the top qb can be more valuable than the top wr over a hypothetical replacement player. Where you draft those players and how predictable they are is another discussion too. 

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Feel free to take Watson in the first or second round.

 

Even in my league with a vastly increased QB scoring system, I won't be.

 

I got Antonio Brown in the first round, Gurley in the 2nd and Hunt in the 3rd. No QB can offer the value those 3 have. Next year I'll be looking for the same value. And I'll stream Watson, Cousins and Bortles (or similar depending on matchups) again.

 

Unless it's 2 QB, I'm not taking one before round 5 earliest, as usual.

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Hi all,

 

A Brit here. Finding this all very interesting reading all your insights on the next years rankings already. However, I have a question. Why is everyone putting Dalvin Cook so far up the rankings when he played 3 games and then got injured? Doesn't this make him a risk? Or is it worth the gamble as he has age on his side. Personally, given the option, of Cook or Ingram/Hunt would it not be better to go for the proven RB?

 

Addition - Also the Vikings have 2 other decent RB's!

Edited by Tomptastic

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10 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Well obviously you won't find an example this year because of the timing of their injuries. 

 

In 2016, standard scoring, the difference between wr1 and wr24 was 76 points.  Qb1 to qb12 was 115 points. There is no scientific reason why I choose wr24 or qb12 to define the "average" replacement level player and I don't want to get hung up on that. Just illustrating how the top qb can be more valuable than the top wr over a hypothetical replacement player. Where you draft those players and how predictable they are is another discussion too. 

 

Before FF resurrects his statistical deep dive on this topic, which seems to make the rounds every preseason, I will comment pre-emptively that I believe it is misleading for the most part to consider the delta between a top QB and a single "replacement level" QB.  In leagues with 6 or 7 man benches, many folks (me included) will often draft 2 QBs relatively late with the intention of mining match up value weekly.  This perceived weekly "value" doesn't always materialize, but in my experience (I don't have a complex, hard data model as proof) I have found that by season's end the combined production from many QB tandems is better than what would have been obtained by playing a single "replacement level" QB every week.  So while comparing the deltas between top and replacement level players at other positions may (or may not) have predraft decision-making value, I believe it has little value relative to QBs unless the model somehow incorporates a methodology that utilizes the combined "match up enhanced" production of 2 replacement level QBs.  In fact, I bet that if we look back on any season (which, as FF argues, is an inherent flaw that renders the entire  model valueless to begin with), we will find any number of common "replacement level" QB combos whose combined, match up driven, production would come reasonably close to the individual production of a top QB that season. 

 

Feel free to judge for yourself what, if anything, that adds to (or detracts from) the "top vs replacement level" player debate.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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21 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Before FF resurrects his statistical deep dive on this topic, which seems to make the rounds every preseason, I will comment pre-emptively that I believe it is misleading for the most part to consider the delta between a top QB and a single "replacement level" QB.  In leagues with 6 or 7 man benches, many folks (me included) will often draft 2 QBs relatively late with the intention of mining match up value weekly.  This perceived weekly "value" doesn't always materialize, but in my experience (I don't have a complex, hard data model as proof) I have found that by season's end the combined production from many QB tandems is better than what would have been obtained by playing a single "replacement level" QB every week.  So while comparing the deltas between top and replacement level players at other positions may (or may not) have predraft decision-making value, I believe it has little value relative to QBs unless the model somehow incorporates a methodology that utilizes the combined "match up enhanced" production of 2 replacement level QBs.  In fact, I bet that if we look back on any season (which, as FF argues, is an inherent flaw that renders the entire  model valueless to begin with), we will find any number of common "replacement level" QB combos whose combined, match up driven, production would come reasonably close to the individual production of a top QB that season. 

 

Feel free to judge for yourself what, if anything, that adds to (or detracts from) the "top vs replacement level" player debate.

 

I agree with everything stated here, but will add that this is, of course, league dependent. I have one league where I'm the only owner that streams qb's and all of the other owners draft 2 or 3 qb's very high (in my opinion) and hang on to them like they fart diamonds. That obviously makes consistently finding good streamers a little tougher, so owning one of the better qb's is a little more important.

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On 12/26/2017 at 10:17 AM, bgar15 said:

Assume .5 PPR. Thoughts? Disclaimer - this is NOT where I would take certain players, this is what I think site rankings will look like as of right now.

 

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. A. Brown

4. Zeke

5. David Johnson

6. Hopkins

7. Hunt

8. OBJ (a lot here depends on status of NYG QB)

9.  Fournette

10. Melvin Gordon

11. Gronk

12. Kamara

 

- Strongest 1st Round I remember in a while FYI -

 

13. McCoy

14. Freeman

15. Julio

16. Michael Thomas

17.  A.J. Green

18. Dalvin Cook

19. Mark Ingram  (When's the last time 2 RBs from the same team were in the top 20?)

20. Keenan Allen

Just look at all the RB's available.

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Hunt

6. Kamara

7. Fournette

8. Gordon

9. Cook

10. Freeman

11. Ingram

12. McCoy

 

Best selection of RB's I've seen in recent memory for an upcoming draft.

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1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

I agree with everything stated here, but will add that this is, of course, league dependent. I have one league where I'm the only owner that streams qb's and all of the other owners draft 2 or 3 qb's very high (in my opinion) and hang on to them like they fart diamonds. That obviously makes consistently finding good streamers a little tougher, so owning one of the better qb's is a little more important.

 

Just to clarify, while genuine streaming is another factor relevant to the discussion, my point was limited to drafting 2 QBs and selecting one of them each week from your roster, rather than depending on the WW streaming pool.  Personally, I prefer "streaming" within my drafted roster, if you can call it that.  Assuming I have at least 6 bench spots to work with, I usually can draft 2 (or even 3) QBs beginning in the middle or late rounds and achieve rather decent total season production utilizing favorable weekly match ups.  

 

As an example, Big Ben has traditionally had rather dramatically different home and away numbers.  If you paired Big Ben with another QB who offered decent match up potential during weeks when Big Ben was on the road, I bet you would achieve PPG performance that would not be too far off one of the top early round QBs.

 

Taking the Big Ben example a little further, I would be interested in seeing what the numbers show if we take some "mediocre" late round QB pairs, like Stafford/Rivers, Winston/Prescott, Cousins/Ryan, etc. and simply combine their numbers during their 8 home games, respectively.  How would the resulting PPG stack up against the PPG for one of the top 5 QBs?   I appreciate that any QB duo will have weeks when both are playing at home or both are on the road, so in reality, you'll never be able to get 16 home games of production out of the particular pair you select, but the analytical exercise should tell us something about the power (or lack thereof) of match up based QB roster management.

 

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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4 hours ago, lavaman said:

Just look at all the RB's available.

1. Gurley

2. Bell

3. DJ

4. Zeke

5. Hunt

6. Kamara

7. Fournette

8. Gordon

9. Cook

10. Freeman

11. Ingram

12. McCoy

 

Best selection of RB's I've seen in recent memory for an upcoming draft.

Cheers...It's the one year anniversary of Zero-rb's death.

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8 hours ago, Tomptastic said:

Hi all,

 

A Brit here. Finding this all very interesting reading all your insights on the next years rankings already. However, I have a question. Why is everyone putting Dalvin Cook so far up the rankings when he played 3 games and then got injured? Doesn't this make him a risk? Or is it worth the gamble as he has age on his side. Personally, given the option, of Cook or Ingram/Hunt would it not be better to go for the proven RB?

 

Addition - Also the Vikings have 2 other decent RB's!

I like Dalvin Cook as well, and am going to target in the second or third round, but I too am a bit surprised that he is a top 15-17 pick as well.  Are we being too optimistic?  Now, I watched my squad go down one week due to him beasting, so I'm well aware of his skills and what he can bring.  If the Vikings use him as a 3 down back, then look out, he becomes elite (assuming health) just like the other 3 down thumpers.

 

I'm hoping his value will be a bit depressed so I can get him a little cheaper, but we'll have to see how he looks once training camp opens.

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here is a guy I make sure I will have on every team

 

Rashaad Penny.  He will be next years Kamara, not as crazy good, but will be a league winner type RB you get post 10th+

 

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

here is a guy I make sure I will have on every team

 

Rashaad Penny.  He will be next years Kamara, not as crazy good, but will be a league winner type RB you get post 10th+

 

Not on board with this...rather roll with R. Jones if he lands in the right spot. Not sure either cracks the top twenty. Will have to reserve judgment til after the draft. Location, Location,Location ... the three most important things when projecting sleepers

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I'd rather draft Devante Adams than Julio Jones.

 

 

This... he is only behind brown, Hopkins and Odell for me. 

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