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2018 MLB Draft Prospects

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Mize article via PG: https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15106

 

D1 Baseball recently released a top 150 rankings (subscription needed to see whole list, but can see the first 10 without a sub): https://d1baseball.com/prospects/2018-midseason-college-top-150/

 

They have:

 

1. Mize

2. Singer

3. Madrigal

4. McClanahan

5. Rolison

6. India

7. Swaggerty

8. Bohm

9. Hjelle

10. Eierman

 

Extensive chat here via D1 Baseball that I'd give a glance over if you're interested in draft stuff: https://d1baseball.com/chats/college-top-150-chat-april-12/

 

Different chat but some draft notes: https://d1baseball.com/chats/top-25-chat-april-16/

 

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Comment From Alan 

Tim Cate was shut down recently. Do you think he gets drafted high enough to sign or do you believe he will be back next year?

 

Kendall Rogers: 

Alan — Even if he needed Tommy John surgery, which I’m being told he doesn’t and he’ll be fine with some rest, he’d still be a high-round pick. Cate is a very good lefty with a hammer curve. He’s as good as gone barring some incredible surprise.

 

 

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Mock draft from McDaniel and Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

 

They have:

 

1. Tigers: Mize

2. Giants: Bohm

3. Phillies: Madrigal

4. White Sox: Swaggerty

5. Reds: Kelenic

6. Mets: Liberatore

7. Padres: Stewart

8. Braves: Rocker

9. Athletics: Bart

10. Pirates: Rolison

 

Notes here via PG on some HS guys including Vasil: https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15100

 

They also updated their top 350 list (first 10 can be seen without a sub, rest a sub is needed): https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=15118

 

Their top 10:

 

1. Mize

2. Liberatore

3. Madrigal

4. Kelenic

5. Bohm

6. Stewart

7. McClanahan

8. Swaggerty

9. Hankins

10. Rolison

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Bunch of comments from McDaniel pertaining to the draft in yesterday's chat: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-4-18-18/

 

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Kiley McDaniel: There appears to be a top 4-6, depending on who you ask and those will probably be the top 4-6 picks in some order. After that (specifically SD at 7 and ATL at 8, and so on) the questions are many and there isn’t much clarity. Most prospects haven’t even had signability meetings with their advisors yet, so teams obviously don’t know what prices are and the top tier scouts are still getting second looks at the top targets

 

Kiley McDaniel: Now we know tendencies, we’ve been to lots of top games and take notes on who is watching whom at each game, other teams will tell us who is where, etc. and we have a pretty good feel for industry consensus evaluations of the top of the draft…but multiple GMs have told us they don’t expect things to get narrowed down to a small group to choose from until much closer to draft time and maybe until they get in the room (2-3 weeks before the draft) and this is from teams in the top 10.

 

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MaineBall: How much of Conine’s swing and miss problem can be attributed to him pressing to impress scouts and can it be easily fixed once he reaches pro ball?

Kiley McDaniel: He was scouted a decent amount in HS and a lot on the Cape, has always had a target on him due to his last name so I don’t think that’s it. He has huge exit velos/power so I think he just tried to hit for more power and overcorrected.

 

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Josh Nelson: What are your thoughts regarding Nander De Sedas?

Kiley McDaniel: Covered it in the comments of the rankings article but he didn’t hit as much as people thought over the summer (it was .180 or so over multiple events) and hasn’t changed that this spring. I should see him shortly after being rained out a few times.

 

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Hinkie: Any truth to the “Casey Mize has an iffy elbow” rumor ?

Kiley McDaniel: He missed some time with arm stuff last year and teams don’t have his medical. He’s been healthy since then and doesn’t look hurt at all right now. Who knows what the medical will say, but unless he’s not pitching due to injury I wouldn’t worry about him any more than I would for any other healthy pitcher.

 

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Greg: Joey Bart sounds like a top 5 pick to me, yes?

Kiley McDaniel: More 6-10

Kiley McDaniel: But one team in the top 5 is taking a long look at him

 

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Jimmy: Connor Scott’s tools look incredible. What’s holding him back from being ranked even higher?

Kiley McDaniel: Other than staying healthy (all minor stuff), I’m not sure. I think the industry is too low on him and the explanations I’m getting are he only went to a few things last summer, he’s had some minor injury stuff this spring and “I haven’t heard him mentioned in the top 10 picks” so I think he’ll be the guy I’m the high guy on.

 

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Z: What does Seth Beer do great as a college hitter that scouts are skeptical will not translate at the pro-level? Lots of power, walks, and low Ks seems like it would play right?

Kiley McDaniel: Also referenced in the comments of the rankings article. 20 runner, DH fit, no athleticism, seen as a mistake hitter. Still top 100 since he performs and has big raw but the upside is super limited.

 

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Sharm: What does it take for Ethan Hankins to get into top 5 consideration?

Kiley McDaniel: That ship has sailed. I was commenting to a friend yesterday that I couldn’t imagine years ago that I’d see a 6’5 high school kid that’s still 17 hit 96 mph and not be impressed but that’s kinda where it is right now, given the expectations and what he’s done in the past. Someone may give him 15-20th overall money, I mean there were two GMs at his last game and another one at the game before that so teams are interested, but there’s so many prep arms in this class with less concerns and comparable strengths. Doesn’t mean he can’t be a good big leaguer or I’m not rooting for it. Seems like readers have a hard time processing guys rising/falling when they’ve heard a guy will be X for months over the winter/early spring.

 

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Matt: You guys have said that Nolan Gorman has lost twitch and flexibility. Does he profile more as a 40/45 3b now where a team just hopes the bat is special enough for 1b long term? Or is it more likely he gets back to where he was physically and sticks at 3b?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean you’re asking me to project how much an 18 year old kid will work out after he gets millions of dollars…I have no idea, but he’s a 40/45 third baseman right now. It’s not bad weight, he’s just a big, powerful kid

 

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Dunt: You guys believe that Bohm has the ability to stick at 3B, but his defensive numbers on the surface suggest that he hasn’t been great there this season. Where have his defensive struggles come from?

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t use those defensive numbers on big leaguers with professional scorers keeping track so it would be pretty silly to use those on college players in small samples. Some think he won’t be able to play 3B long-term, but I do and I think a majority of scouts do. He’s 6’4, though, so it’s not like it would be a huge upset if he moves eventually.

 

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YouthBerry: What sort of power upside does Brice Turang have?

Kiley McDaniel: 50/55 raw power, the approach hasn’t tapped into it much this year, but there’s feel to hit, so there’s a chance for 15-20 homers

 

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Frank: Where do you see Seth Beer going in the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: probably 2nd, maybe 3rd

 

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Matt: You said a while back that Bohm wasn’t as far from a Bryant-level prospect as one might think. Do the Bryant comps mostly come from his frame or could he really get to that level? Seems like if he was that close he’d be the sure 1-1 right?

Kiley McDaniel: Frame, profile, raw power. The swing isn’t the same and Bohm’s needs some adjustments. I think the athleticism/twitch is a little less than Bryant. He isn’t that level of prospect but the fact that he COULD be that sort of player is exciting.

 

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Fonz: Where does India rank in June if he keeps hitting like this through Draft Day?  Also, would anybody draft him to play SS?

Kiley McDaniel: Probably stays in the 20s, but I guess could sneak into the late teens if a numbers teams goes gaga. He’s fringy there for me, so even if an OAK/TB type club gave it a shot I’m not even sure they’d be okay with it, but he catches the ball and has enough arm.

 

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Mike: What is the concern level in bart’s swing and miss? Is he a .230-.240 hitter or could he be .270-280?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the concern. Most say 45 bat

 

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Fonz: Seriously though, where would Sean Hjelle have been ranked if Cistulli hadn’t accidentally cut his entry in editing?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s the guy we’re lower on than most. 89-91, fringy offspeed, average command, above control, it’s all plane and moxie. Late 2nd-3rd for us but I bet someone takes him 25-50.

 

 

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McDaniel chat today: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-22-18/

 

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Jim in Chicago: If Casey Mize doesn’t go #1, where does he end up?

 

Kiley McDaniel: This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won’t get everything we would like to know pre draft.What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he’s a finished product, good in the sense that he’s good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won’t get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see. So if he doesn’t go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it’s unclear where he would stop because we don’t know what the info would be that caused him to slide

 

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Fleer: Any chance Beer goes in the top 10?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Cannot imagine how that happens, wouldn’t rule out a little below slot in the 20’s to an analytics-leaning team or one with multiple picks. I would guess 30-50 and lots of the industry has him lower than that.

 

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Brian: How many of the top draft prospects would be considered to be on the top 100 prospects list?

 

Kiley McDaniel: We are fine tuning the sortable draft board right now, should be done soon. I think we have 12 or 13 with a 50 FV or better, which would be top 135 or so. In the update of THE BOARD instead of stopping at 100, we’re just gonna rank all the 50’s so roughly a dozen players would jump into that. May still be about 135 total once the draft kids sign and you have graduations from the list

 

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Snapper Bean: Still think the Phillies are locked in on Bohm at 3?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, still could change but that’s been the buzz on them for over a month

 

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Sox Fan: Has Rolison’s stock really fallen that much that he would be available at 26? It seemed like he was a safe bet to go top 15 until a few weeks ago.

 

Kiley McDaniel: He’s had some bad starts and we just finished ranking college pitches and he slid a little further than we thought he would. Performance has just been okay, delivery needs a change, guys like Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch are a little better for us, but they’re all close

 

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Hinkie: If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ?  I guess this is a long way of asking … how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???

 

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know how things play out if Mize doesn’t go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we’re probably not gonna like it either and there’s still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he’s 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.

Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we’ve talked to some people that would know and they’re convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they’ve already moved on from Mize.

 

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Joe: Are you locking in a Prep Pitcher to the Pirates at #10?  Do you think they’ll go underslot or attempt to?  Any preferences of the guys that are in that range that would fit the Pirates system? or do you see a shift in the Pirates system away from high velocity and more towards high spin rates (a la Baz)?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of guys in play there as there could be a player seen as a top 10 talent that slides to them (Liberatore, McClanahan, Stewart) and we’ve also heard some momentum for Winn, Larnach and Grayson Rodriguez there as well. Don’t have the impression that from pick 9 on down really has a great sense who will be there for them, so don’t think those teams really know who they will take yet, especially with pricetags on most of the these players coming into focus now that draft meetings are about to begin

 

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Lilith: As far as the college hitters in the draft, do you know how the Reds would rank Bart, Madrigal, Bohm and India? And do they prefer Singer to all of them?

 

Kiley McDaniel: 2, 1, 3, 4 is our guess with Singer/Bart/Madrigal the top tier in some order

 

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Darren: Biggest risers/fallers of the past couple of weeks?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The aforementioned Daniel Lynch, LHP at UVA has lots of helium and not just because we’re hearing about it late, he’s been a different guy over the last month

 

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Anthony: Have you seen Adam Hill at South Carolina at all?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Missed him by a day, sounds like he’s given scouts very different looks this year, sometimes touching 95 and mowing thru lineups with his slider, other times sitting 88-92 and without the command to start. Thinking 3rd round or so

 

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Sparhawk: Which prep pitcher has more upside, Carter Stewart or Matthew Liberatore and why?

 

Kiley McDaniel: You can project a 65 to 70 fastball and breaker for Stewart and Liberatore’s top two pitches are a little behind that, but he has a little better feel to pitch. They are very close but would lean Stewart on upside.

 

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Rangers: Who are some names beyond what we’ve been mocked to that we have been connected to?

 

Kiley McDaniel: We heard after the mock that Texas prep RHP Grayson Rodriguez will not get past your pick.

 

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Guest: Think Hankins slides to the comp rounds? How much will a team need to overslot him to get him to forgo Vandy?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Hearing he won’t be a tough sign. Sounds like he’ll go 20-45 range, prep righties are always tough to pin, particularly when there’s a bunch that are hard to separate.

 

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Dunt: How does Madrigal’s profile change if he’s moved to SS? Does his arm play there?

 

Kiley McDaniel: It should be fine, it’s more tools than Eckstein and he made it work, Madrigal has comparable feel for the game, he just isn’t a platonic ideal there.

 

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Bravesy McBravesface: How likely is it that Joey Bart actually goes 1-1 now?  Is Alec Bohm a possibility at 1-1?  Has Mize’s rough last couple of outings caused any uncertainty?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think Mize’s performance is the factor here. It may be 60/40 Mize/Bart at this point.

 

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John S: Usually by now, there’s an idea whether an amateur will sign or not.  Jordyn Adams seems to still be on the fence. What say you?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like he’ll go in the 10-20 range and he’ll sign if he goes there

 

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Clubber Lang: Is there a command guy without a big time fastball that you like in this year’s draft?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Daniel Lynch and Logan Gilbert on college side, Gunnar Hoglund on prep side

 

 

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Longenhagen and McDaniel over at FanGraphs released their BOARD today: 

 

Intro to board: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-the-2018-mlb-draft-board/

 

Link to board: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all&team=all

 

A few quotes from Law's chat from late last week: http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/05/25/klawchat-5-25-18/

 

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Mac: Who’s the guy moving up draft boards that surprised you the most? 
Keith Law: Schnell. Power is real, good athlete for sure. Not a CF, big arm bar at the plate. Curious whether his above-average speed lasts – his body type seems more likely to settle in as average speed as he gets bigger & stronger.

 

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Gore : If you can remember, how does Singer compare/contrast to Nola as a prospect out of college? 
Keith Law: I remember very well. Nola had better fastball command and a better third pitch.

 

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Butts: Curious on your take on Griffin Roberts. Starter? Heard his change looked pretty okay yesterday. 
Keith Law: His change was there in March too. It’s the delivery. There isn’t a starter in the majors who looks like that.

 

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Darryl: Due to medicals is T.Beck now a 3-4 round pick? Does Nico Hoerner have a chance to be an early round pick? 
Keith Law: Hoerner goes day one. I’ve heard late first but I think somewhere in 31-45 more likely. 
Keith Law: Beck … I don’t know what the medicals say. He’s a huge risk having missed a whole year with a back injury, but that’s about all I know.

 

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McDaniel chat today: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-5-30-18/

 

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Larry: Would you still put Gorman as the most likely pick for Atlanta?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but there’s a growing sense that, with teams in their meetings and little details leaking out, that beyond the top 5-6 picks, there’s a lot of uncertainty, private workouts and shifting opinions. And some crazy rumors in the top 5 at teams price shopping to figure out what all their options are.

 

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Tommy N.: Any late draft whispers for the Padres and their newly acquired bonus pool money? Less likely to go underslot at 7 now?

 

Kiley McDaniel: That’s one pick with some of the crazy rumors swirling. Still seems like a below slot high school pitcher there, but sounding like they’ll also have Swaggerty to choose from (whom they scouted a lot down the stretch and generally fits their type of hitter) and are jockeying to set up their subsequent picks, so it’s more chess for SD than the checkers that other teams are playing at their picks.

 

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Paul: Can you sell me on Nolan Gorman? Everything I’m reading sounds terrifying and huge bust potential. Brutal spring, contact questions, defense questions. Why should I get excited about him as a potential top 10 pick?

 

Kiley McDaniel: You seem very level headed about all this. I would direct you to his report at the link at the top of the chat. It wasn’t a brutal spring, the stuff that’s being said about him is almost exactly the same as what was being said about Austin Riley 12 months ago. If you believe in Gorman’s makeup (and most teams do), he could actually be a bit better than Riley since he’s lefty and has a hair more power and may also be a little more advanced offensively in general.

 

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Henry: Any names the Braves are connected to in the second round?

 

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a slew of HS players (generally ATL’s preference) that will go 20-50 and have big price tags. So knowing who is on the board for that pick is almost impossible since the Braves specifically don’t have the pool to maneuver a player there. They’ve been on Bart (1st) and Seigler (2nd round), but neither will get to the picks they’ve wanted them at and there’s not other catchers in play at those picks. So we’d be more guessing on general tendencies, who is available in a mock scenario and games they’ve been at deep/often.

 

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Carl: Do you know who the jays could be linked to at the 12th pick in the draft? I saw somewhere they were linked to high schoolers which was surprising for the front office.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Still hearing mostly high school guys unless a college guy that shouldn’t get there slides. Sounds like the floor for Swaggerty. If TOR gets Bichette, Pearson and Swaggerty in three consecutive drafts in those spots, Jays fans should be doing backflips.

 

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Run Home: Thanks for the chat! Will we be surprised next week on how high Larnach gets drafted?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Think we’re gonna be the high guys on him. if he doesn’t go 9-12, then he may slide into the 16-20 range.

 

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Matt D: I don’t get the Brady Singer love. Low 90’s fastball, lack of wing a miss stuff. Can’t you argue Dane Dunning who was a late 1st rounder when was drafted actually had better stuff then Singer at the time.

 

Kiley McDaniel: I would say he definitely had and still has better stuff

 

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Connor Scott: I dropped in your new rankings. Is that just a function of the injury not letting you get enough looks (as you say in the report) or is there something else?

 

Kiley McDaniel: That’s it. Upside is still the same and some pitchers closed strong and slid up a bit. Also talked to some other scouts that saw you early and they didn’t get as good of a look as I did.

 

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Connor: Who are some candidates to fall because of signability concerns? Any way we see Kumar go to Vandy?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Kumar and Mike Siani both have 3-4 slots where their price can be met in the 25-40 area and if they slide past there they’re likely heading to school b/c there wont’ be enough money left to give them. Vandy could also get Will Banfield if he doesn’t go day one.

 

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Sean: Kiley, any sense as to if the Tigers will continue their college heavy approach or if they will start to prioritize ceiling a bit more this year?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like they’re targeting prep players with their second pick (Avila scouted Parker Meadows, they’re on JT Ginn), there’s a rumor they are trying to get the Mize bonus low enough to float Kelenic to their 2nd pick, but I doubt they can pull it off.

Kiley McDaniel: In part because Kelenic is seen as signable, so some team will just take him if he slides

 

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Jared: If you were Oakland who would you be realistically hoping falls to you at 9? Are Swaggerty or Singer good fits?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like Swaggerty will be there and hearing they will pass. I think that would be a mistake.

 

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Jo-Nathan: Did Vasil actually remove himself from the draft pool like Joe Boyle last year, or is he just telling teams not to draft him?

Kiley McDaniel: We’re told he didn’t do the paperwork move that others have done in the past to formally opt out, but he’s asked MLB to be taken out and whether he actually is/isn’t, teams have been told by MLB not to do it. The whole situation makes no sense, as Keith Law wrote about after it happened.

 

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Trevor: In the pre-season draft rankings you guys mentioned that some scouts thought Xavier Edwards was better than Brice Turang, but only his size was holding them back? With the less than a week away, would you say that more scouts are convinced that Edwards is the better player?

Kiley McDaniel: Turang not hitting as expected and Edwards hitting better than expected ended up flipping that. I mean that was easier than Edwards figuring out how to get taller in a few months.

 

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Teddy Franco: After Griffin Conine’s Cape season, it seems scouting media has seriously knocked him for an uneven spring a bit too much. What do you think?

Kiley McDaniel: He was awful early and much better lately. Given the Cape, I think the awful early with be mostly forgotten, but he is a worse hitter than he was on the Cape from a scouting perspective, so he should be knocked.

 

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Ballsandgutters : Why are you guys higher on Travis Swaggerty than other?

 

Kiley McDaniel: He has maybe the best tools of any position player in the draft and he’s performed before, just had some bumps this spring. That rap is super similar to Trea Turner, who like 20 teams mis evaluated and privately would tell you that. Luckily I got to see him as a college freshman/sophomore so I had more context than most national scouts who just focus on draft eligible guys in their draft year

Kiley McDaniel: If you take a step back and ask your scouts why they didn’t like Trea Turner and their answer is I saw 13 plate appearances and didn’t like it, that’s kinda an insane answer when the guy has tools like that and was breaking records statistically, but was banged up/making swing changes on Team USA and the first half of the spring when like 90% of the scouting looks happened.

Kiley McDaniel: For all the truth that scouting can reveal that can’t be replaced by numbers, the lack of context and lack of searching for answers to reconcile something that doesn’t make sense can often be maddening. Like the two games you saw can tell a kid’s entire athletic future on multi-million dollar decisions and that’s a good process.

 

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Nick: Most realistic landing spot for Kelenic in the top 10, if any?

Kiley McDaniel: He doesn’t really have one. NYM/ATL/OAK all like him but I don’t think any of them take him. Maybe PIT?

 

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Jordan: What would say the probability is, in percentage, of these guys going to school? Rocker, Banfield, Denaburg. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: 55%, 35%, 20%

 

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notacop: Maryland’s Nick Dunn posted surprising power this year, and always hit in the Cape. Is he the type of “safe” college prospect we see climb up boards late in the process?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Possibly, but he also may be a left fielder and his power has dried up some since his breakout Cape campaign, so where we have him ranked is already rounding up for that sort of stuff.

 

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Mike: Are you still taking Adams over Murray at this point?  Why/Why not?

Kiley McDaniel: They’re ranked back-to-back, so we think they’re super close and you could easily make the case for either. Lots of similarities but Adams is bigger and more classically loose in the way scouts tend to prefer, but Murray just performed better than expected in the Big 12.

 

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Tim: On a podcast White Sox scouting director Nick Hostetler said he could see the top 3 getting blown up from the order almost everyone is assuming. Have you heard anything like that and if so, what will be the catalyst of the change?

Kiley McDaniel: Well Mize not going 1-1 would do that and that seemed like 50/50 a week ago and now is like 90-95% likely to go as expected. I’d guess that’s what he meant.

 

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Tim: Is it just me or would Grayson Rodriguez at 10 be kinda disappointing? I would prefer the Pirates take one of Kelenic, Stewart, or Winn. What do you think?

Kiley McDaniel: Eric and I don’t get the Grayson Rodriguez in the top 15 stuff at all, but TEX and PIT both are apparently really on him and prep righties is where teams tend to have really different opinions

 

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Matt: You guys seem to be the high guys on Madrigal – so what kind of hitter do you see at peak – Pedroia?  2014 Altuve?  Urias? 2016 Altuve??  I guess what kind of stat line do you see?

Kiley McDaniel: He has elements of those guys and Albies but almost certainly isn’t as good as Pedroia/Albies/Altuve. Right around Urias, 2-3 win type that may get to 4 wins once or twice and gets to the bigs quickly.

 

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PS: Have you heard anything on who the yankees like in the latter half of the first?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of talk about Daniel Lynch of UVA at that pick. rising late and we have him 23rd, so fits.

 

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ryan: do you think the reds will go for Madrigal if he’s still available, or draft a pitcher given that their pitcher development has been so poor…

Kiley McDaniel: They will take him if he’s there

 

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Oyster Burns: the yanks are always on socal kids. have you heard the same going into this draft?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve heard them strongly tied to three players with high picks, all on the east coast

Kiley McDaniel: But they’d take Cole Winn if he slides, which I can’t imagine he’ll get that far

 

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Loop: Anything new on the White Sox? Still on Madrigal? More so leaning Singer now? Feed me. I hunger.

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s down to those two, still think it’s Madrigal

 

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Bravesy McBravesface: Isn’t Trevor Larnach just a more polished, outfield version of Gorman?

Kiley McDaniel: Mostly, yes.

 

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A Boy Named Yu: Best guess for Cubs’ first pick?

Kiley McDaniel: They had their top two decision makers at the Denaburg vs. Casas playoff game and Denaburg was pretty good.

 

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Ptown: Could the Giants shake things up and go with a high school pitcher at #2?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Cole Winn is the rumor we keep hearing, but that would have to be in a scenario where Bart goes 1 and they flunk Mize’s medicals and both seem farfetched right now.

 

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Frank Menechino’s Lazy Eye: Thank you for the DRAFT BOARD!
Do you get the sense that you and Eric are higher on Swaggerty than the industry consensus?

Kiley McDaniel: Higher than he’ll go, but there’s definitely scouts that have him right where we do. The ones that don’t, we think, are falling into the aforementioned Trea Turner thing, or getting distracted by some worrisome, but ultimately probably meaningless maturity stuff from earlier in the spring.

 

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Dustin: What’s your long term outlook on Ryan Rolison in the upcoming draft? Four pitch lefty with good decent control and can hit mid 90’s. Seems similar to the Liberatore “whole is more than the sum of the parts”.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Except Rolison isn’t projectable, needs to change his delivery some, needs better fastball command and needs to throw his changeup more/curveball less and didn’t perform that well in the SEC. Could go as high as 11, but probably more in the 20’s

 

 

 

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John S: Can you explain how Singer was assigned a “low” on variance?

Kiley McDaniel: He has a low variance among his possible outcomes. He’ll almost certainly be in an MLB rotation pretty quickly and he wont’ be an ace. In the draft, the gap between 3rd starter and 5th starter is really small when some guys have a real chance of not getting out of A-Ball

 

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NE Draft: Any idea where Siani/Decker/Torres will be drafted. Seems like all 2nd round?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like Siani is going to school if he doesn’t go 25-40. Decker probably 30-55, Torres like 15-35

 

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Tom: Saw a report that had Kyler Murray’s arm at a 40 grade. Certainly doesn’t look good for an aspiring QB. What’re the odds a team with a big bonus pool grabs him & how much $$$ would it take?

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like $4-5 million, if there even is a number. Arm is below right now but the arm action can be cleaned up to be more baseball like and there’s some zip in there so it’ll likely be average to above eventually.

 

 

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With the MLB draft beginning on Monday, I updated my google doc with draft-eligible college player stats. I've included all the names on MLB.com's Prospect Watch Top 200 draft prospects that play in college, and I've added their pitching and hitting stats so that it's easy to compare! It's not super in-depth, but it may help get a sense what the incoming prospects from the draft look like statistically for fantasy purposes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dWdo8_L62jWLlDmJyqDaN--YEOe3NgRGHfvZiUhwPaM/edit?usp=sharing

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Some notes from Law's chat today: http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/06/04/klawchat-6-4-18/

 

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TC: Are there any teams that you feel fairly certain will select a player if he is there? Seems to be a ton of uncertainty a few hours out. Normally there are a few picks that seem cemented the day of the draft. 
Keith Law: Nothing is cemented because 1) someone could fall to a team they didn’t expect to get a chance to pick or 2) a likely predraft deal doesn’t pan out, but I think Stewart to Atlanta, Adams to Texas, and Denaburg to Washington all are “very likely if the players get there” sort of picks.

Tom: What percentage would you place on the Tigers NOT selecting Mize 1st overall. Also, if not where is his floor (Phillies at #3?) 
Keith Law: I go back and forth on this. Was all the smoke yesterday about them being off Mize mere posturing to get him to take less than slot? (Really, they should offer the slot for pick #2 plus $1, and he should take it, because he’s not getting more than that anywhere else.) I think they probably know who they want, and they probably knew that yesterday, so the correct answer is either 100% or 0%. The answer from outside, without actual information, makes it look like 50/50. So I suppose this is Al Avila’s Cat.

Rico Brogna : If the Phillies land either Madrigal or Bohm (seems they are most interested in a college bat) or even Bart if he falls, how quickly do you think each of these bats gets to the majors? 
Keith Law: None is more than two years away. I’d guess any or all could debut late in 2019.

Tom: Hey Keith, where would you rate Casey Mize longterm compared to of Justus Sheffield, Brendan McKay, Bret Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez and Mitch Keller? (My first klawchat question – so proud!) 
Keith Law: Ahead of Honeywell (hurt), behind the others.

 

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Patty O’Furniture: You had Carter Stewart mocked to the Braves at 8, after sticking with the Gorman pick for quite a while – is there anybody ahead of ATL that could jump in on Stewart? 
Keith Law: The Giants and Reds would be extreme long shots but have shown interest in him this spring.

 

ScooterMcGavin: White Sox at #4. I’m worried that Mize and Singer will be taken already. Madrigal scares me a little, reminds me too much of Gordon Beckham. Is India or Bohm a better fit for CWS? 
Keith Law: I think Singer gets there, although I wouldn’t take him over any of those three bats you mentioned. I think he’s more Carson Fulmer than Chris Sale.

 

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B: With neither Hankins nor Rocker listed in your mock, is the consensus that they’ll go on over-slot deals in the comp round? 
Keith Law: Yes. Likely both, Hankins more likely.

 

HH: How many draft-eligible pitchers are good enough to pitch in the majors later this year (even in pen)? How does that compare to the average draft? 
Keith Law: I think Mize could, in relief. A few college relievers probably could too, guys like Mulholland way down my 100. Singer maybe as a right-handed specialist.

 

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someguynamedkenny: What are the odds Alec Bohm ends up being able to stick at a position other than first base long term? 
Keith Law: Maybe 35%. I think he’s a better athlete than people realize from his body, but he’s a big boy for 3b.

 

Jay: If Bohm and India are sitting at 6, which way do the Mets go? 
Keith Law: I think India. But I also have them taking someone else over those guys.

 

Tortoise Joe: You mention Adams to the Rangers — there is a line of thought among some Ranger fans that drafting toolsy high ceiling athletes hasn’t worked for Texas, and so they need to start going a different direction. Is that a reasonable critique? 
Keith Law: Adams is toolsy and high ceiling, but he has also shown some feel to hit already. He’s way better than Eric Jenkins.

Brian: How similar is Matt Liberatore to Mackenzie Gore? Are they similar type of lefties regarding stuff and potential or only similar in that they are left handed? 
Keith Law: No, just that they’re lefthanded.

 

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EL: Can Bart play anywhere else but catcher (in case the Giants draft him)? 
Keith Law: You don’t take him if you’re not going to catch him. Posey is 31 with over 800 games caught in the majors. His future at that position is limited now.

 

Jim: Is there any substance behind the rumor of Mize falling to three? Or was that just a hypothetical in your mock? 
Keith Law: Not a hypothetical. 
Keith Law: Sorry quick delay for a draft-related phone call 
Keith Law: I’m back. That was interesting, mostly for yet another person saying he didn’t know what the Tigers’ decision will be at 1.

 

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Freddy: What are the knocks on Carter Stewart? Seems like everyone agrees he’s mid 90s with a plus curve, athleticism and likely to stick as a starter. What are the negatives? 
Keith Law: Prep RHP have one knock against them to begin with. He also lost a little velo at the end of his spring due to a wrist injury, not a serious one. I still have him at #2 overall on my board.

 

GIO: Two part question – How does Bart compare to Zunino at the same point of their careers? Do you think Bart can be better than Zunino has been up to this point of his MLB career? 
Keith Law: Zunino had more hit tool at the same point, Bart has more raw power and might be a better catcher (receiving, game-calling).

 

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Jon: Any Andrew Benintendi in Travis Swaggerty? 
Keith Law: No.

 

Parts unknown : Which top prospect is most likely to end up being described as a “gamer” or being “gritty”? 
Keith Law: Madrigal. 5’7″ 155 pound white middle infielder who isn’t a plus runner.

 

Nick: What type of power do you see Jarred Kelenic having as a pro? 15+? 20+? 25+? 
Keith Law: Homers? If he hits enough to get to the power it’s 25+ homers.

 

Brian: Thoughts on Madrigal’s size for a top 3 pick? 
Keith Law: Short doesn’t bother me. I don’t know if he has the hand strength to make enough quality contact against major-league pitching. He’s short, but also somewhat slight, at least compared to guys like Bregman, who is short but strong.

 

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Dave: Keith, what’s the likely percentage that a top 5 college bat (like Madrigal or Bohm) fall to the A’s at 9? 
Keith Law: Mize goes ahead and at least two high school players go ahead, I think, so there’s one scenario where all five go ahead and a bunch of scenarios where at least one gets to them.

Mark: Any chance the Padres take Murray at 7? Seems like 2 years ago everyone thought Quantrill was going with their second pick, but they took him at 8 
Keith Law: I considered that possibility and you’re right – it could happen, as it did with Q. But I also think they feared Q wouldn’t get to 23, while Murray could very well get to 38.

Tom: If you could quantify it on a 1-10 scale, how big is the separation between Mize and singer. 
Keith Law: The only way I’d take Singer over Mize is if you told me Mize had a current medical (arm injury, back issue) problem that Singer didn’t, and to the best of my knowledge, that’s not the case.

Mark: Where would Hunter Greene have been ranked in this year’s draft? #1? 
Keith Law: I would probably have him 1, although Mize, as a guy who’s further along and less risky than a 17-year-old pitcher, would give me pause.

Thomas: If you had to pick one position player and pitcher you’re really high on and think the rest of the industry is sleeping on, who would they be? 
Keith Law: I said in the top 100 I’m higher on Naylor than the industry (I think). Not sure I have a pitcher with a comparable gap – am I higher on Wilcox than most?

Adam : In your most recent mock you have the Giants passing on Mize to save money to go over slot for someone later. The only way they do that is if they have an agreement in place with someone they have specifically targeted, correct? 
Keith Law: Probably, although you can’t guarantee player number two gets to pick number two.

Patrick: The Baltimore local reporters all seem to expect the birds to take a position play at 11, probably an infielder. Are you still hearing them on pitchers? 
Keith Law: I’ve heard pitchers more than hitters with them all spring.

 

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How did Singer fall to #18?  Wasn't he ranked as the #2 overall prospect by MLB?  Anyone it is cool that he did get drafted in the first round.  I was one of his middle school teachers around 2009.

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3 minutes ago, Trader Mac said:

How did Singer fall to #18?  Wasn't he ranked as the #2 overall prospect by MLB?  Anyone it is cool that he did get drafted in the first round.  I was one of his middle school teachers around 2009.

 

My guess is teams were concerned regarding his delivery.

 

Also surprised Liberatore made it to 16 for TB to scoop up and Gorman all the way to 19 for STL to grab.

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I think Tampa had a great first day in the draft picking up Liberatore and McClanahan...They desparately had to restock the cupboard with pitching after all the TJ injuries this year to their top pitching prospects.

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3 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

My guess is teams were concerned regarding his delivery.

 

Also surprised Liberatore made it to 16 for TB to scoop up and Gorman all the way to 19 for STL to grab.

 

Saw some rumors that Tampa had promised Liberatore way, way above slot to essentially have him float high numbers to the teams ahead of them so he'd slip.  But, prospects can't pull that off a week before the draft as teams see through the smokescreen.  They'd have had to make the promise a while ago.

 

Gorman falling was more surprising to me, but once Atlanta took Stewart, I think a bit of a slide was reasonable.  Not to 19 though - tremendous value for STL.

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First, apologies for the unnecessary bump.

The Jays must be actively targeting MLB bloodlines. Griffin Conine now?!

Back to the Draft...I absolutely love Tampa's picks of Liberatore and McClanahan. Several other good first days but that one stands out to me too.

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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-6-6-18/

 

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Tommy N.: Are you surprised Liberatore signed for slot did he really just want to start his career or was there something in his medicals to make him slide? Granted 3+ mil is still a lot of money.

 

Kiley McDaniel: Wasn’t medicals. I’ve been told the story and am pretty sure it’s correct, won’t be sharing for a little while at least for reasons you guys can probably assume. Great deal for TB.

 

 

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http://meadowparty.com/blog/2018/06/05/klawchat-6-5-18/

 

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Arnold: Pretty good job with your mock Keith. Who are you most surprised did not get selected on Day 1 of the MLB draft? 
Keith Law: I had heard actual chatter about Wilcox going in the late first round and thought he’d be a pick somewhere before 40; maybe his price went up late. Floored Isbel didn’t go – that’s my favorite pick relative to its spot of all those Royals guys.

 

Wilcox is headed to college ball at Georgia.

 

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Alan: The Cards grabbing Gorman at 19 seemed to be a surprise. Any idea why he fell that far? 
Keith Law: Could be concerns about swing and miss.

 

JC: Tristan Beck, just taken, did not make your top 100 – all medical related (including the Stanford pitching problem) or stuff related as well? 
Keith Law: Missed all of last spring with a back issue, stuff and results up and down this spring. Really didn’t miss many bats.

 

Cooper: What do you think of the Royals grabbing 5 straight college pitchers with their 5 of top 58 picks… and Singer falling to them at 18? 
Keith Law: Singer “falling” is relative; I don’t think Singer was worth a top 15 pick. I thought they got a lot of probability with those arms, and given their trouble with prep arms taken with high picks recently, it may be a worthy correction to their strategy.

 

Nick: What happened to Nander de Sedas? He was projected to be a top 15 pick preseason, but then I stopped hearing anything about him. 
Keith Law: He had a terrible spring at the plate, and I had more than one scout say he looked disinterested. I guess he’ll end up at FSU now.

 

Sergio Q: Padres scouts mentioned that Weathers was hitting 94-95 in his final inning of his last start? Hype or real info? 
Keith Law: He did that in a few starts – first outing back in March, at least his final two starts of the spring.

Not Chris: What player has the highest ceiling? 
Keith Law: If Mize stays healthy he’s a #1 starter.

THE Average Sports Fan: India an under slot selection? How many 3b do the Reds actually need\ 
Keith Law: Fans get fairly stuck on a player’s listed position on draft day; India could end up at 3b, 2b, and I would send him out as a shortstop and see how he fares.

Craig: With Turang, how much of his fall was him being a known quantity for so long that familiarity bred contempt and how much was that his ceiling just isn’t as high as ppl thought it was last yr? 
Keith Law: He didn’t perform well at the plate over the last 12 months. When scouts started bearing down, the conclusion was that he’s not the hitter he’d been hyped to be.

Clay, Rutherford : Should I be concerned that the Cubs took Hoerner in the first round, since Stanford has a reputation for messing with hitters’ swings? The recent track record of Cardinal hitters is lackluster. 
Keith Law: I had him ranked just a shade below that, more because I don’t see the secondary skills at the plate (patience or power). High contact guy with high baseball IQ too and chance to stay at short.

Trevor : All the 1st round guys got talked up big time. The Dodgers kid not so much. Was that a huge reach in your mind? 
Keith Law: Yeah, this is the other issue I have with the coverage – every first round pick was a future all-star, plus tools left and right, ready for the majors in a month, etc. It’s not possible that every pick was a good one. Ginn might have two pitches that grade out as 7s, but there’s disagreement about the delivery – I see violence that might make him a reliever, I know good scouts (not with LAD) who think it’s not a problem and he was maybe the best prep arm in the draft.

Dave: On MLB network, they said Seth Beer has had trouble with wood bats. What are some reasons behind this? 
Keith Law: Specifically, he hasn’t performed well in wood bat leagues/environments the last two years. (It’s not like, say, the wood bats and he don’t get along.) It’s a great approach with real power, but he doesn’t have exceptional bat speed.

Mike: Is there a Forrest Whitley in this draft? A pitcher taken in the teens who could end up a stud? 
Keith Law: Liberatore and Winn would be my guesses.

Sean : No surprise that the Nats have focused on pitching in this draft. Any thoughts on the arms the Nats have drafted so far? 
Keith Law: Really like their draft through round 4. Schaller is super intriguing – has the frame, body, fastball you want, just hadn’t pitched in two-plus years after TJ.

Adam: Is Carter Stewarts Curveball of the Adam Wainwright variety? 
Keith Law: Literally the highest spin rate ever recorded on a CB.

Doug: Are the Padres saving their money for late picks? Or is Xavier Edwards good enough to justify Weathers over Liberatore? 
Keith Law: The gap between Weathers and Liberatore in my mind is just not that big, and I’m sure there are guys who had Weathers higher due to present command.

 

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