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High&Inside

James Paxton 2018 Outlook

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Obviously "Big Maple" had a great final line last year. When he was on he was damn near unhittable. Peripherals backed everything.

 

But....he missed significant time due to injury once again. Finishing the year at only 140 IP. He's never exceeded 171 IP in his career, and that was only twice(2013,2016).

 

So adding in his injury risk where are people valuing him going into drafts? If he's healthy the whole year he's an ace, but that's a big IF.

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Fully aware of the risk with this guy,  but will be a buyer again. Should get enough of a discount due to injury history to make it worthwhile. 

 

I'm thinking 7th round in my drafts which is where I'll take my 3rd pitcher. I like him or Nola at that spot.

Edited by MrBrett

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2 hours ago, MrBrett said:

Fully aware of the risk with this guy,  but will be a buyer again. Should get enough of a discount due to injury history to make it worthwhile. 

 

I'm thinking 7th round in my drafts which is where I'll take my 3rd pitcher. I like him or Nola at that spot.

this, if you get him in the 7th he can produce 2nd or 3rd round value

 

im probably taking him as an SP2 with SP1 upside

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3 hours ago, High&Inside said:

Obviously "Big Maple" had a great final line last year. When he was on he was damn near unhittable. Peripherals backed everything.

 

But....he missed significant time due to injury once again. Finishing the year at only 140 IP. He's never exceeded 171 IP in his career, and that was only twice(2013,2016).

 

So adding in his injury risk where are people valuing him going into drafts? If he's healthy the whole year he's an ace, but that's a big IF.

Rich Harden 2.0

Coincidentally also a canuck 

Edited by 2ndCitySox

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I love Paxton. I own him in three keeper leagues. So many of you see him as a 7 round pick? Do you you take him as your first pitcher off the board in a 7-8 player keeper?

Kluber-Sale, Kershaw , Severino, Verlander  and Kuechel will be keepers. Do you take him over Archer?

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8 hours ago, motown magic said:

I love Paxton. I own him in three keeper leagues. So many of you see him as a 7 round pick? Do you you take him as your first pitcher off the board in a 7-8 player keeper?

Kluber-Sale, Kershaw , Severino, Verlander  and Kuechel will be keepers. Do you take him over Archer?

 

Tough call, one guy can't stay healthy the other guy is always healthy. If Paxton could stay healthy it's him all day. If you have depth and can handle DL stints, go Paxton.

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It seems to me like he's flying under the radar a bit. He's being looked at as a top 20 SP but when healthy, his performance the last 2 years is basically top 10. Maybe that's what happens when you don't pitch 200 IP.

 

Basically everything about him is elite besides health. The K% went up last year from 22.9% to 28.3%. BB% went up slightly but not much (4.7% to 6.7%). HIs FIP for 2017 was still below 3.00 (2.61).

 

He doesn't give up a ton of homers, he has great velocity, good control, and swing and miss stuff (12.5 SwStr%).

 

If one argues that drafting Kershaw is worth it for just 170 IP then sign me up for 140 IP of James Paxton, especially at his price.

Edited by UberRebel
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I may be wrong but I keep reading people say he has had some flukey injuries and they have no major concern.

 

I agree it hasn't been structural damage but both happened to his arm side. One was the forearm strain which doesn't seem like flukey or non serious and than his left pectoral.....a lefty throwing triple digits with two arm side injuries doesn't seem OK. Just my opinion

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12 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

It seems to me like he's flying under the radar a bit. He's being looked at as a top 20 SP but when healthy, his performance the last 2 years is basically top 10. Maybe that's what happens when you don't pitch 200 IP.

 

Basically everything about him is elite besides health. The K% went up last year from 22.9% to 28.3%. BB% went up slightly but not much (4.7% to 6.7%). HIs FIP for 2017 was still below 3.00 (2.61).

 

He doesn't give up a ton of homers, he has great velocity, good control, and swing and miss stuff (12.5 SwStr%).

 

If one argues that drafting Kershaw is worth it for just 170 IP then sign me up for 140 IP of James Paxton, especially at his price.

2.6 FIP is above great

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If he can give us 175+ innings, he's an excellent SP2. Pitcherlist has him as the #16 SP. He appears to be going in the 6th round.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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My one problem with Paxton is the durability. The problem is more than him just missing starts. He made 24 starts last year and still only pitched 136 innings. That's 5 2/3 IP per start, which is weak for a guy we are considering as a top 20 type SP. With this pace, even in a full season he'd be throwing about 180 IP. Yes, people would be thrilled with that, but that isn't a high enough upside to consider drafting Paxton this early. Just feel like there is too high of expectations here with regard to how many innings he will really be able to throw this year.

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Don't blame anyone from staying away from injury prone player's.  He might not be worth the risk in your mind or situation.

Admit Paxton has been frustrating to own but I'm in again for at least a couple of shares because I'm still getting enough of a discount imo on a pitcher I consider an Ace when he's healthy.  In my leagues pitchers are valued more, so he's going to be my SP 3. If/when he goes down it's not going to be as damaging if he was my #1 or 2.

 

 

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As I mentioned in the Gregory Polanco thread and it is worth mentioning here is the key to drafting injury prone players is drafting their floor taking into account time missed.  

 

 

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18 minutes ago, B&F said:

As I mentioned in the Gregory Polanco thread and it is worth mentioning here is the key to drafting injury prone players is drafting their floor taking into account time missed.  

 

 

I used to subscribe to this type of strategy on certain players but there's one huge problem now. With the 10 day DL there are now more guys on the DL than before, at least more fantasy relevant guys. That means that the FA player pool with somewhat decent replacement players seems to be shrinking. Going into this season I plan on significantly altering my stance on players like Paxton. Unless I'm getting a significant  draft day discount on these type of injury prone guys or guys who are injured heading into the season, I'll be avoiding them. Let them be someone else's problem. Due to the new DL rules we all have to deal with the nuisance of a team placing other guys on the DL with very minor issues. I think it's best to avoid or at the very least readjust the value on players who you know will probably be on the DL at some point. 

 

All of the above being said. Look at how many guys pitched 200 innings over the past few seasons. It's shrinking and quickly. I think the norm will soon be pitching 175 innings. If that does turn out to be case then a guy like Paxton may not be so bad. If he duplicates last season and he's going in the 70-90 range, you could do worse. 

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1 hour ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

I used to subscribe to this type of strategy on certain players but there's one huge problem now. With the 10 day DL there are now more guys on the DL than before, at least more fantasy relevant guys. That means that the FA player pool with somewhat decent replacement players seems to be shrinking. Going into this season I plan on significantly altering my stance on players like Paxton. Unless I'm getting a significant  draft day discount on these type of injury prone guys or guys who are injured heading into the season, I'll be avoiding them. Let them be someone else's problem. Due to the new DL rules we all have to deal with the nuisance of a team placing other guys on the DL with very minor issues. I think it's best to avoid or at the very least readjust the value on players who you know will probably be on the DL at some point. 

 

All of the above being said. Look at how many guys pitched 200 innings over the past few seasons. It's shrinking and quickly. I think the norm will soon be pitching 175 innings. If that does turn out to be case then a guy like Paxton may not be so bad. If he duplicates last season and he's going in the 70-90 range, you could do worse. 

Good call, this is a big thing to remember with the new, and horrible, 10 day DL. I noticed but hadn't put two and two together until reading this. Even more so in AL/NL only leagues. 

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Not having 200 ip upside isn't the end of the world anymore. I still rather have a guy giving me 140 good innings than 200 near replacement level innings.

 

Team using their bullpen better is another reason innings see down. The average start is getting shorter.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Not having 200 ip upside isn't the end of the world anymore. I still rather have a guy giving me 140 good innings than 200 near replacement level innings.

 

Team using their bullpen better is another reason innings see down. The average start is getting shorter.

Agreed, 180 is the new 200. But if Paxton is going 6ish or less innings per start then the probable 25~ starts he's gonna give you isn't as appealing. 

 

On the other hand, what you're hoping for(if you draft him) is the progression of either staying healthy or going deeper in games. 

 

I think his price is going to be higher than the risk of hoping for those things. There's other pitchers out there needing similar progress, with lower price tags. 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Not having 200 ip upside isn't the end of the world anymore. I still rather have a guy giving me 140 good innings than 200 near replacement level innings.

 

Team using their bullpen better is another reason innings see down. The average start is getting shorter.

 

I agree with this in a vacuum, but I believe where Paxton is getting picked you can get 200 IP of very good innings. Not like the drop off to the next guy is huge. Arrieta, Nola, Archer are some of the names around him - all players with similar upside with less risk. Guys like Rich Hill and Alex Wood are behind this group, both guys who could (and have) performed very well and have similar injury risk.

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8 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I agree with this in a vacuum, but I believe where Paxton is getting picked you can get 200 IP of very good innings. Not like the drop off to the next guy is huge. Arrieta, Nola, Archer are some of the names around him - all players with similar upside with less risk. Guys like Rich Hill and Alex Wood are behind this group, both guys who could (and have) performed very well and have similar injury risk.

My exact thinking as for "tiering" Paxton. 

 

Theres no right answer though, as there is an upside drafter, or a few(myself included), in every league. There are many worse gambles to take. I like Paxton's upside more than Nola, and similar to Arrieta/Archer with a touch more risk, as well as a touch more upside. Paxton's ceiling is Cy Young. 

 

Do you feel lucky, punk? 

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3 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

My exact thinking as for "tiering" Paxton. 

 

Theres no right answer though, as there is an upside drafter, or a few(myself included), in every league. There are many worse gambles to take. I like Paxton's upside more than Nola, and similar to Arrieta/Archer with a touch more risk, as well as a touch more upside. Paxton's ceiling is Cy Young. 

 

Do you feel lucky, punk? 

 

I just feel like the upside is similar for the rest of the tier. Arrieta is 2 seasons removed from his own Cy Young. If Archer's FIP matches with his actual ERA this year he will be in the Cy Young discussion. Maybe Nola doesn't have as high an upside, but the risk is considerably less, not just a touch less.

 

So yes, I see the argument, just my opinion on it. Would rather take more of the sure thing that early in the draft, then take a chance later on.

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Usual variance within tiers, but on the same page. 

 

Id say Arrieta/Archer/Nola/Paxton, in that order among those names. It could very easily be in reverse order at the end of the year though. 

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It’s not just injuries with him.  It’s the fact that he seemingly doesn’t heal.  A 2 week DL stint will turn into 6+ weeks for him.  I don’t like being the dork behind the keyboard questioning a professional athletes desire, but I just find it strange his timetables usually double, triple, quadruple in time missed nearly every single time.  When he strained his pec on August 11th he left the game and after said he felt fine.  Didn’t expect to miss much time.  Was given 3 week timetable upon examination next day (this while the team is still in WC chase) and ended up missing almost 6 weeks.  That’s just one example.  If you get 150 innings out of him it’s a plus.  Anything more than you likely are going to be in great shape.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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