High&Inside

James Paxton 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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On 2018-01-21 at 7:31 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Not having 200 ip upside isn't the end of the world anymore. I still rather have a guy giving me 140 good innings than 200 near replacement level innings.

 

Team using their bullpen better is another reason innings see down. The average start is getting shorter.

So true, and he still has upside for more innings, if he’s pitches 170 then you’re going to get great value from Paxton.

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If you are in a league with enough DL spots to carry a few injured players, I feel like he is well worth the risk.  Even if you only get 125-150 innings out of him, those have a reasonably high likelihood of being top10 numbers when he DOES pitch.  

 

Calculate his numbers as if you fill those missing 50 innings with a replacement level pitcher and I think it is pretty reasonable to project that combination to outperform his ADP.

 

Sure - you could lose him for the season due to injury but really that risk exists with every pitcher. 

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http://fantasyassembly.com/2018/02/20/cheaper-stephen-strasburg-draft-alternatives/

 

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I’ve been writing love letters about James Paxton for 18 months now.  It’s not a crush – it’s the real deal.  I’ve heard some analysts say that he has “left-handed Thor” potential.  I think “left-handed Stras” would be just as apt.  You can see that the numbers bear this out.  The stat lines are like looking into a mirror.  

Paxton throws just as hard and strikes out just as many people as Strasburg .  I think his stuff might actually be a hair better than Strasburg. He does have the disadvantage of being in the AL as opposed to the NL, but you couldn’t ask for a nicer hime park.  Everything about Paxton screams ace potential.  He has performed like a top 5-10 SP whenever he pitches, but just has not been able to pitch enough innings to achieve ace-dome.  Paxton is a large man and seems to be learning to throw a little softer in games to help prevent injury.  I’m hoping this adjustment will lead to an injury free 2018.  If he pitches 180 innings or more, Paxton is likely to be a fantasy ace.  

Strasburg is going around names like Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo, J.D. Martinez, and Dee Gordon.  Paxton is going around names like Jean Segura, Dallas Keuchel, Eric Hosmer, and Domingo Santana.  I would much rather have the Paxton side of that pairing.  Given they are both potential injury risks it makes even more sense.

 

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Stuff has always been there, just can't stay on the mound.  Not sure why this year would be any different.  

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Stuff has always been there, just can't stay on the mound.  Not sure why this year would be any different.  

Because he stopped drinking milk...

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In all seriousness, I love Paxton. He's a legit ace just missing health. That's a big question mark but I'm certainly investing.

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Only drafting him if I already have 2 other aces by the time I can grab him. That is unlikely to happen so I probably will not own him, but I just don't feel safe as him as my #2 based off his health concerns. 

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I’d much rather bet on the talent (especially at his price) and hope for the health rather than pass cause of health and watch someone else reap the rewards of the talent. 

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any concern over Paxton's game yesterday?

 

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James Paxton couldn't make it out of the second inning on Sunday, giving up seven runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Padres in the Cactus League.

Paxton surrendered two homers in the second inning -- solo shot by Robinson Chirinos and a three-run shot by Ryan Rua. He simply didn't have his fastball command in this one, and the Rangers took advantage. Fortunately this doesn't mean much, and Paxton will almost assuredly be pitching at or near the top of the Seattle rotation when the regular season rolls around.

 

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1 minute ago, SpecialFNK said:

any concern over Paxton's game yesterday?

 

 

 

Unless an injury I dont put much stock in spring training games at all.....

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Unless we hear about an injury, there's really never any reason to put much stock into Spring Training games this early. There's days where the guys go out there and only toss fastballs and work on new pitches they may never attempt in a real game.

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I cringe in fear every time this thread gets bumped. As long as he's not injured, he can give up all the runs he wants in ST

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When it comes to pitching in Spring training the only thing that's a red flag is if there's a significant drop in velocity from the previous year. Otherwise, I like many others put zero stock into spring training.

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Got him as my SP3 in a 15 team roto league. I feel like he's a guy I"ll either be totally stoked about at the end of the season, or I'll be kicking myself for the pick - no in between. I don't see a "meh, just ok" season from him. First time I've ever had him - hope I get lucky and landed the healthy season. 

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3 minutes ago, ocdodgerfan said:

Got him as my SP3 in a 15 team roto league. I feel like he's a guy I"ll either be totally stoked about at the end of the season, or I'll be kicking myself for the pick - no in between. I don't see a "meh, just ok" season from him. First time I've ever had him - hope I get lucky and landed the healthy season. 

You must have drafted pitching early if Paxton is your SP3. He'd be a good SP1 in most 15-team leagues. 

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

You must have drafted pitching early if Paxton is your SP3. He'd be a good SP1 in most 15-team leagues. 

Yeah, pitching is going super fast in this draft, we are only in the 6th and he was my highest rated guy available. The big 4 plus Thor were all gone by pick 16. It's draft and hold so everyone seems to be shopping the high end of the SP market.  I do like Paxton though, and with a couple other guys ahead feel like I can absorb a little lower innings total if he produces great ratios. And if he happens to break out for 175+......

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4 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

You must have drafted pitching early if Paxton is your SP3. He'd be a good SP1 in most 15-team leagues. 

I wouldn't go that far.  He has SP1 skills but you're essentially paying for something he's never done (or hinted he's capable of doing) if you are drafting him as your SP1.

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27 minutes ago, Magoo said:

I wouldn't go that far.  He has SP1 skills but you're essentially paying for something he's never done (or hinted he's capable of doing) if you are drafting him as your SP1.

In a 15-team league, it's not too bad. I don't value pitching that much, however. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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Got hammered again today, i hope he is just working on stuff, 3IP 5 hits 1 walk 4 earned runs and 4 k's

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42 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Got hammered again today, i hope he is just working on stuff, 3IP 5 hits 1 walk 4 earned runs and 4 k's

Era in spring training means nothing. 

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

Got hammered again today, i hope he is just working on stuff, 3IP 5 hits 1 walk 4 earned runs and 4 k's

Any word on his velocity?

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