High&Inside

James Paxton 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

Incredible you punch out 16 batters and your team cant get you the win.

 

Every day I want to punch my commissioner for not doing a QS league.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

Incredible you punch out 16 batters and your team cant get you the win.

 

Every day I want to punch my commissioner for not doing a QS league.

I despise Nicasio 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, SwayzeExpress said:

 

It was Diaz this time.

 

Nicasio gave up the 2 run jack that tied the game and then Diaz gave up the solo

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

Nicasio gave up the 2 run jack that tied the game and then Diaz gave up the solo

 

My bad, I missed that. I tuned in in the bottom of the 8th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

My thoughts exactly!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

My thoughts exactly!

 

Did you watch the game? He was throwing his curve in the dirt and several other pitches looked awkward. Like someone else mentioned earlier, his mechanics were getting sloppy. Besides, Nicasio and Diaz have been lights out lately. The ones questioning the decision to pull him have to be coming from a fantasy perspective.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

 

200 innings would be incredible, not that I'm holding my breath. What do we think his K floor is if he pitched 200 innings? 250? 260?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, IncuRAM said:

 

200 innings would be incredible, not that I'm holding my breath. What do we think his K floor is if he pitched 200 innings? 250? 260?

Floor? I'd say more like 220-230

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, arthurpete said:

 

Did you watch the game? He was throwing his curve in the dirt and several other pitches looked awkward. Like someone else mentioned earlier, his mechanics were getting sloppy. Besides, Nicasio and Diaz have been lights out lately. The ones questioning the decision to pull him have to be coming from a fantasy perspective.

I absolutely did watch the game, beginning to end.  7th inning he was still topping out at 98mph and struck out 3 that inning.  As far as him looking sloppy throwing his curve in the dirt,  he does that 1st inning, 2nd inning, 3rd inning, etc. in every game I watched this year.  Not sure if this is your first game you watched him pitch but that his style from beginning to end.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

We could get into how pitch counts havent reduced injuries but I think that's a whole other topic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

I absolutely did watch the game, beginning to end.  7th inning he was still topping out at 98mph and struck out 3 that inning.  As far as him looking sloppy throwing his curve in the dirt,  he does that 1st inning, 2nd inning, 3rd inning, etc. in every game I watched this year.  Not sure if this is your first game you watched him pitch but that his style from beginning to end.

 

M's fan...watched all his his starts, he was noticeably sloppy towards the end of the 7th.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The most underrated SP in fantasy. If he stays healthy, he really could put up top 5 SP #s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, arthurpete said:

 

M's fan...watched all his his starts, he was noticeably sloppy towards the end of the 7th.

Agree. His mechanics started falling apart in the 7th. Not sending him back out in the 8th was correct.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are just four guys at the bottom of the list of 97 qualifiers who are trendy/highly owned: Michael Fulmer (.193), Joey Lucchesi (.188), James Paxton (.188) and Chris Archer (.178). We already mentioned Stroman up top. I’m not saying to cut Fulmer and Lucchesi but just note there are some fleas here so getting lit up will be more correction than outlier. Paxton, Archer and Stroman have earned all their trouble this season. You may think you are buying low on them but a real buy low is a guy with bad fantasy stats but much better foundational stats, not one who is bad in fantasy and bad in the leading indicators, too.”

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-pitchers-buy-sell-based-well-hit-data-214558521.html

Edited by chud12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

You must not have been watching the game, because he lost it in the 7th. He was still hitting 97, but he had no idea where it was going. Was very obviously fatigued at that point. Multiple pitches bounced in front of the plate of were 3 feet from the target. To be honest he was fairly lucky not to give up a run that inning. 

 

Hindsight is great though!

Edited by cs3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

The most underrated SP in fantasy. If he stays healthy, he really could put up top 5 SP #s.

I love Paxton, and literally own him on every team I could possibly get him. But lets be realistic here - almost any pitcher *could* put up top 5 numbers but which of these guys do you think Paxton has a legitimate shot to finish ahead of:

Scherzer

Kluber

Sale

Kershaw

Verly

Cole

Severino

deGrom

Strasburg

CMart

Thor

You're either being extremely optimistic with Paxton's ability to greatly reduce the number of baserunners he allows throughout the rest of the year, or you are expecting a bunch of those on the list above to get injured while simultaneously forgetting about Paxton's own proclivity to get hurt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

K% - 35.7%

SwStr% - 14.6%

FIP - 3.08

 

Fantastic numbers. His GB% down a lot, but that should normalize.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeff Sullivan's interesting take yesterday  on the recent 16k performance. Apparently Paxton threw the four seamer up high in the zone all night, the first time he's done so in, well, ever.  He got 25 swinging strikes on it -- just the four seam fastball -- his highest career single game total. Second highest: 14. Could be a watershed moment.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Jeff Sullivan's interesting take yesterday  on the recent 16k performance. Apparently Paxton threw the four seamer up high in the zone all night, the first time he's done so in, well, ever.  He got 25 swinging strikes on it -- just the four seam fastball -- his highest career single game total. Second highest: 14. Could be a watershed moment.

 

Were these pitches still in the strike zone or were they up out of the zone? If they were strikes, then perhaps. If some or most were balls, then it won't really be a watershed moment. Because when he does it enough and there's enough film on it, hitters will start to lay off of them. 

 

I am curious where this leads, though.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.