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Starling Marte 2018 Outlook

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I don't see how Marte can really be called a buy low at this point.  It's true that guys with 40+ SB potential don't grow on trees, but in 2016, without the PED suspension taking away from his value, he was 25th overall on the ESPN player rater.  He's going off the board around 35 in offseason mocks.  That's about a round of profit if you believe he can repeat 2016, but why should we believe that?  He's going into his age 29 season, which is an age where speed can begin to fade.  Meanwhile his average slipped to .275 last season, and the counting stats are unlikely to be anything to write home about in a weak Pirates lineup.

 

I think a lot of his ADP is being sustained by a belief among some folks that he can add plus power back to his game, and I just don't see it.  It could happen, but there's no reason to pay up thinking it will happen.  If he's just a plus steals guy with maybe plus average, I'm out at the top 3-4 round price he's going at.

 

As for keeper value (and assuming this isn't a bench coach question...) my low opinion of his cost in redraft extends to keeper value.  Keeper questions always depend on the number of guys you can keep, who else you'd be pushing out, etc.  If you have another option for steals or think you can go get one at a more affordable price, I'd do that.

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17 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't see how Marte can really be called a buy low at this point.  It's true that guys with 40+ SB potential don't grow on trees, but in 2016, without the PED suspension taking away from his value, he was 25th overall on the ESPN player rater.  He's going off the board around 35 in offseason mocks.  That's about a round of profit if you believe he can repeat 2016, but why should we believe that?  He's going into his age 29 season, which is an age where speed can begin to fade.  Meanwhile his average slipped to .275 last season, and the counting stats are unlikely to be anything to write home about in a weak Pirates lineup.

 

I think a lot of his ADP is being sustained by a belief among some folks that he can add plus power back to his game, and I just don't see it.  It could happen, but there's no reason to pay up thinking it will happen.  If he's just a plus steals guy with maybe plus average, I'm out at the top 3-4 round price he's going at.

 

As for keeper value (and assuming this isn't a bench coach question...) my low opinion of his cost in redraft extends to keeper value.  Keeper questions always depend on the number of guys you can keep, who else you'd be pushing out, etc.  If you have another option for steals or think you can go get one at a more affordable price, I'd do that.

 

Agree with this, there's no reason to expect a big jump. Average is no guarantee with Marte, so betting on that is paying for something with no base to argue with. And the power has been absent 2 years in a row now, in addition to those years being pre-PED suspension. Not sure the speed will fade away this year but its definitely a risk. Better chance it goes down than up at this point. I think you also have to consider at this point the small chance he starts to lose playing time if he struggles out of the gate. We may see some trades soon, but its not a guarantee for now. If its March and McCutcheon and Harrison are still on the team, there is a legitimate chance Marte could lose some ABs to guys like Frazier and eventually Meadows if the season starts off poorly.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

I don't see how Marte can really be called a buy low at this point.  It's true that guys with 40+ SB potential don't grow on trees, but in 2016, without the PED suspension taking away from his value, he was 25th overall on the ESPN player rater.  He's going off the board around 35 in offseason mocks.  That's about a round of profit if you believe he can repeat 2016, but why should we believe that?  He's going into his age 29 season, which is an age where speed can begin to fade.  Meanwhile his average slipped to .275 last season, and the counting stats are unlikely to be anything to write home about in a weak Pirates lineup.

 

I think a lot of his ADP is being sustained by a belief among some folks that he can add plus power back to his game, and I just don't see it.  It could happen, but there's no reason to pay up thinking it will happen.  If he's just a plus steals guy with maybe plus average, I'm out at the top 3-4 round price he's going at.

 

As for keeper value (and assuming this isn't a bench coach question...) my low opinion of his cost in redraft extends to keeper value.  Keeper questions always depend on the number of guys you can keep, who else you'd be pushing out, etc.  If you have another option for steals or think you can go get one at a more affordable price, I'd do that.

love this

 

id be scared he has a carl crawford like fall

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I totally agree he isn a 2-3 rounder, but I don’t think he falls there. Everyone is down on him. 4th and 5th round in a roto league seems like it could be ok, but I actually think he might fall behind that in a lot of leagues.

 

he could turn into a nice sleeper

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19 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I totally agree he isn a 2-3 rounder, but I don’t think he falls there. Everyone is down on him.

 

Who's down on him?  ADP of 35 across 4 expert mocks (35, 35, 36, 43) == 3rd rounder.  If you think industry people are more likely to be high on him, he went 37 in the first RW forums mock, and 33 in the 2nd.  I'm not seeing a lot of skepticism in those numbers -- it's a pretty narrow range, and all within the first three rounds of 15-team leagues.

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He’s going to get taken early in roto because he’s a legit SB threat that doesn’t kill you in other areas.  I’m not terribly crazy about drafting him early in points leagues.   Even head to head where stats reset every week he’s not as valuable as he is in straight 5x5.  

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Who's down on him?  ADP of 35 across 4 expert mocks (35, 35, 36, 43) == 3rd rounder.  If you think industry people are more likely to be high on him, he went 37 in the first RW forums mock, and 33 in the 2nd.  I'm not seeing a lot of skepticism in those numbers -- it's a pretty narrow range, and all within the first three rounds of 15-team leagues.

 

You might be right, but I see that coming up big time. I agree at that price, I wouldn't touch it. 

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Shandler likes him (whats new)

 

One thing to consider is most of these early drafts are 5x5 or leagues with no transactions.  Trying to trade for steals in a large 5x5 is a royal pain. Also in expert leagues, many want to "set it and forget it".  They don't want to try to trade because they're busy with other leagues and responsibilities. Marte still has 40-50 sb potential.  Some of those early NFBC leagues set the stage for ADP and it trickles down.  Draft champions tend to take SB and closers earlier than others

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I can see the market being all over Marte in the 3rd round.

 

The 2nd round price last year was rich. But hey, that was the cost of locking in a safe 40 steals with satisfactory power (little did managers know!).

 

A third round price tag, with the suspension behind him and similar potential, will seem like a bargain.

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IF he's able to play 150+ games, I'm projecting Marte's line will be something like

 

.290 75 R / 12 HR / 55 RBI / 35 SB

 

Pretty valuable IMO


We can also dream that he finally has a breakout and revenge year he has the potential for : 

 

.300 90 R / 17 HR / 80 RBI / 50 SB

 

 

 

 

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Have suspicion he might be a really good auction value this year, its one of those deals where I think auction can bring more value than draft.  In a draft he is a "name" someone will pick him sooner than later, but probably wont be really happy about it, in an auction, its a different dynamic.  Last year he went $42 I think on a 260 scale, I could see a 50% reduction on that...

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Just got him late 5th in our mock.... seems like good value there as I think OF is pretty shallow at the top 25 the a large dip.... 

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I am more concerned with the drop in his slugging % last year than a fear of age related steals decline.  He hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down but without those extra base hits he is just a glorified Ben Revere.

 

The reason he will always get drafted where he gets drafted is because he is really the only guy available in Rds 3+ who can provide the certainty of 30-40 bags without the risk of being a complete bleeding hole in the power department. Some managers find it easier to get a guy like that up front and not mess around with low floor steals specialists.

 

 Whether or not Marte is a good investment at that price really depends on how good a job people do in rounding out their roster later in the draft.  Someone who locks him up early might have a lot of cheap power hitting or starting pitching sleepers lined up for later and was wise to draft Marte that early.  Someone who passes him up might have some cheap speed options lined up that pan out this year and will similarly be proven wise. Hard to judge in the abstract.

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This guy seems to be slipping in drafts.  I got him in the 8th round of mine and I don't even like the guy that much.  Couldn't pass him up at that spot.

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Posted (edited)

What? LOL

 

 

 

Quote

 

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has decided to bat Starling Marte sixth on Opening Day vs. the Tigers. (Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Fantasy Impact:

This decision is nothing short of a head scratcher. Hurdle has decided to bat his best hitter Marte sixth, while opting to bat Adam Frazier leadoff and Gregory Polanco third. It is hard to imagine the Pirates’ lineup will remain this way for long, but as long as it does Marte takes a slight hit in value. Bizarre.

 

 

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/news/152657/starling-marte-batting-sixth-opening-day-lineup.php

Edited by Carlos Correa

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So their hottest hitter all spring is going to bat 6th.  Seems about right, if you are trying to land the #1 overall pick.  #HurdleFail

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Hmm i wish i drafted a few days later now. SMH this can't be a lasting thing right? 

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4 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

 

Has to be some kind of weird metrics thing right? Like Marte has bad stats against the opposing pitcher that day? I can't fathom how he can hit 6th all year. 

I think "the book" actually does state a base stealing threat should bat 6th.  Hurdle has been blamed the last couple of years for his line up decisions but the Pirates' front office might be making this call based on analytics.

 

Either way Marte has definitely batted 6th for stretches before while John Jaso lead off and David Freese hit 3rd.

 

God help us all.

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Yikes. This certainly does not help his value much seeing as he is already in a pretty poor lineup. I don't get why it wouldn't be Frazier, Marte, Polanco or Frazier, X, Marte, Polanco. Pretty annoying but I doubt it lasts.

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18 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

 

Has to be some kind of weird metrics thing right? Like Marte has bad stats against the opposing pitcher that day? I can't fathom how he can hit 6th all year. 

 

Correct. Marte has a bad history against Jordan Zimmermann. He will bat 2nd usually.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/pirates-starling-marte-will-bat-second-after-opening-day/

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