Sidearmer

Mike Clevinger 2018 Outlook

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Clevinger had a mini break out last season as a swing man, pitching as a starter and reliever and putting up very solid numbers: 3.11 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.1 K/9. He has always shown strikeout potential in his profile and everything seemed to come together last year. Unfortunately, I think this is similar to the Brad Peacock situation where he will be the odd man out in the rotation (Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, Salazar). Maybe they will give him a shot to beat out Tomlin but I'd expect them to give the nod to the veteran there. At this point, like Peacock, he's a mid to late round option that is worth stashing.

 

If and when he does have the chance to start, what are everyone's thoughts on him? He has a tendency to lose command and/or nibble, so I don't think he will ever be an innings eater. However, he makes up for that with his high strikeout rate. Even when he was really hot last year, he was mostly throwing 6 inning games. His WHIP won't be elite either because of this, but he has enough strikeout potential to still deliver strong numbers albeit a mediocre WHIP. Think sub 3.50 ERA with strong W and K numbers when he is a starter. He threw 155 innings between the minors and majors last year so I think he should be fine to go 180 innings this year, just a matter of being given the opportunity.

 

This is easy mid round value considering he wouldn't need to improve anywhere from last year to deliver those numbers, just needs a chance. He's not even rated on the ESPN top 300 Fantasy listing.  In our first mock, he went pick 17.7 (199 overall). In the second mock, he went pick 18.5 (209 overall). So it seems in the mock drafts his value is a little more recognized. At or around pick 200 is still tremendous value.

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Yeah, it's all about whether he's in the rotation on opening day.  One of those guys whose ADP will be low until he gets the job.  If he does, I think McCullers-esque value (on a per-game basis, but without as much injury risk) is a fair expectation.  I'm all in on that if signs are looking good for a rotation spot, but for some reason, Tito seems to have a soft spot for Tomlin.

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Salazar is the one to watch, his leash has to be extremely short. I could see them skipping right over him, but most likely he gets his last chance to be somebody. Clev will be right there waiting

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I have 2 early drafts - hoping to get him at a discount before he officially lands a spot.....I dont see how he is not in the rotation with that upside

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How does he not beat out Tomlin?  The numbers say he is better than Tomlin

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4 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

The most glaring comparison point is that Clevinger still has an option left.

 

Yeah it is Tomlin's to lose with Clevinger in the wings.  it is usually not about the best pitchere in these cases.  It is about who has options.  What would they do with Tomlin, who they went out an re-signed in the off season so they want him, if Clevinger took the fifth spot?  He can't be sent down. 

 

Just wait and let nature take it's course.  These things work there way out in time.  Hopefully in a short amount of time for us Clevinger owners.  But he is definitely a hold in dynasty leagues even if it takes a bit longer.

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I'm sorry but with what Clevinger did last year, and no spring chicken at 27 years old it would be an absolute embarassment if 33 year old, soft tossing, Josh Tomlin and his 4.98 ERA is starting, especially considering he makes only $3 MM in the final year of his deal. 

 

There's no competition in my mind,  I don't care what's being said, you can't look your team in the face and tell them you are putting them in the best position to win of you are starting Tomlin over Clevinger. You would lose the respect of the clubhouse. 

 

Tomlin to the bulpen/spot starter and it shouldn't even be a debate. 

 

This is an Occam's Razor situation to me. I'm taking Clevinger with full faith he will be starting.

Edited by StevieStats
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I think very few people realize how freakin good this guy is. I can see him evolving into a strong number 2--- probably not this season but he's gonna ball out this year too.

Seriously guys and gals. check him out

 

 

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salazar already behind schedule....the opening is there for Clev to grab a spot....hoping he stays under radar long enough to get him on the cheap!  

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Tribe fan here.  I fully expect Clevinger to win a spot in the rotation and will likely be the 4th starter.  He has great stuff.  Opponents hit for low average against him.  If he can get his BB's down he could be very good. 


Salazar is behind in his rehab and will probably start the season in the pen.  Tomlin is steady but is more of a 5th starter but typically starts the season fast and slows after the break.

 

I'd bank on Clevinger winning a rotation spot and having a solid year.

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