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GeekUSA

Keep Bumgarner or Bregman?

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Hi Everyone,

 

This is a 12-team, 5x5 categories league - Hitting: (OBP, SLG, R, RBI, SB) Pitching: (ERA, WHIP, K, QS, SV+H). 

 

I'm in a keeper league and I'm trying to decide between between Bumgarner and Bregman for the 2018 season and beyond. We get to keep players UP TO 3 SEASONS IN A ROW, then we have to throw them back to the draft pool. We have to keep 2 players, my other player I'm keeping is Machado, which will be the 3rd year in a row he is kept. He will be a free agent in our league next season. Here are the pros and cons between both:

 

Bumgarner: Very reliable arm that is projected to be a top 5 SP for the 2018 season. My leaguemates think very highly of elite starting pitching and if I'm out of the playoff race come the trade deadline, Bumgarner would likely give me a nice trading chip for draft picks for 2019. On the other hand, Bumgarner is currently on his last season of keeper eligiblity for me. If he is kept this season, I would need to throw him back as a free agent. Any team acquiring Bumgarner in a trade would need to throw him back as well (it doesn't reset his clock).

 

Bregman: Going into his age 24 season, Bregman finished with a .903 OPS after the All-Star break last season. Love his energy and his contact rate at his young age, excellent lineup as well. I see him slotted in as 2nd in the lineup in Houston, with the green light in SB. He is going to be 3B/SS eligible. I've never kept Bregman, so if he is who I think he is, I could be eligible to keep him from 2018-2020. Not as much of a track record as Bumgarner, is it possible his 2nd half was a fluke?

 

One thing I need to mention: I am going to be the 11th overall pick this season, with my next pick being at 47th overall. I gave up my 2018 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks last season to go for the championship (which I won). With this being said, I don't feel super confident I'm putting myself in a fantastic position to be competitive for 2018. Because of that, if I were to keep Machado AND Bumgarner, I would have to rely on 2 other players to keep for 2019. I highly doubt Alex Bregman would be there at 11th overall in our draft this season, especially with his shiny shortstop eligibility.

 

I know this is a lot of information to take in, I really appreciate you taking time to read. If you have any thoughts on my debate, please let me know! Obviously, I'm happy to help in return!

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Thank you for the reply. I'm kind of leaning that way myself. Gives me some added security of a potential quality piece for the future. Based on my draft position, I could get another quality arm to replace Bumgarner, or another decent position player to keep.

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If we counted wins for pitching, Bumgarner probably wouldn't be considered. We roll with quality starts, though. He is one of the rare workhorses in the game, which makes him tough to dump. However, he probably is more replaceable with pitching in the aggregate. Bregman has 30/20 upside for a shortstop, which is pretty enticing.

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Definitely Bregman. It's close even for 2018, so no contest given the extra years of control.

 

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As others have said I’d keep Bergman - thanks for help with mine. 

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Breg, but maybe look to deal Bum, heck maybe trade Bum and Machado since cant be kept for stud who can...

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Bumgarner.  In a 12 team league you can get a decent 3B in re-draft.  Perhaps even a better one.  But not the number 5 starter in all of baseball.  Especially since you use QS over Wins in your league.

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Yeah, but he can keep Bregman for three years, and Bregman's currently his only keeper in 2019. I hear what you are saying about an elite arm, but I don't think it's that tough a decision. 

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On 1/10/2018 at 10:25 PM, schulni said:

Yeah, but he can keep Bregman for three years, and Bregman's currently his only keeper in 2019. I hear what you are saying about an elite arm, but I don't think it's that tough a decision. 

I really appreciate the feedback guys. I personally consider our league more of a redraft league because we are only keeping 24 players (2 per team), so the Bumgarner argument isn't outlandish at all. I guess the real problem is that I'm afraid if I throw Bregman back he develops into superstar status, and I have to live knowing I gave up a player I could have had control over for 3 more seasons. If I do keep Machado and Bumgarner it's not the end of the world, I just need to keep 2 different players I inherit this season because their contracts are up. Another scenario I'm starting to think about now is throwing Machado back this season and holding onto Bumgarner and Bregman. Since it's a contract year for Machado, I have more confidence in his 2018 than Bumgarner's velocity dip. Thanks again, really excellent discussion so far. Happy to comment on others.

Edited by GeekUSA

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