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Fuzzy_Slippers

Manny Machado 2018 Outlook

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Machado had another good season in 2017. He should be a lock in 2018 for 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and 90+ R with a handful of stolen bases. His average dipped pretty low last season, but his BABIP was considerably lower than it should be moving forward. His K% of 16.7% was very good and his BB% was about league average. Although his average suffered in 2017, his hard% was up and his soft% was down. He should be a fantastic second round selection. It should be noted, however, that he is only 3B eligible now. Also, let's hope he gets traded to a better team.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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Owned last season on one H2H league team.  Really only performed at an elite level in July and August. Last two September stat lines were not very impressive, maybe next year will be different.  I'm sure he'll continue produce at a high level at home, but I'm going to use my 2nd round pick on someone else in 2018.

 

Edited by MrBrett
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Got a little too home run happy with his swing last season but still the same player.  Don’t think it would shock anyone if he had a year where everything is clicking and he put up a top 5 offensive player season.  Displayed remarkable durability the last 3 years too.  I would be thrilled to use a 2nd rounder on him.  Read that he is asking to be moved back to SS too.

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Lost SS eligibility.  Still a stud but difficult to take early like he went last year

 

He has said he wants Baltimore play him as SS this season.  We all know he prefers SS but this might be more to jack his value up a bit more as a FA later as well.  So this is something to monitor.  If he stays in Baltimore this year and if his demand is met then maybe he re-qualifies again at SS early on in the season.

 

Meanwhile Tim Beckham may have something to say about all that.

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Should be good for 35 HR and a .270 average. 5% walk rate over the past 3 years depresses OBP value. SB totals starting in 2015: 20, 0, 9..so his speed value is a bit tough to judge. In the current environment where steals have become scarce, his production fluctuations make him a value gamble. He's an easy 180 R + RBI guy, with 190 being probable. 

3b I like more: arendado, Bryant, Donaldson, Sandoval (lol). I don't value him the same as those 3 (I play obp), but like him as a top end 2nd tier guy with potential for 1st tier if the speed and average/ OBP are better. 

 

Obvious gaining ss eligibility would be yuge and would put him in the correa/trea/Lindor tier (aka top shelf)

 

Oh snap: also his contract year

 

Edited by 2ndCitySox
Oh snap

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On 12/30/2017 at 5:46 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

 

Oh snap: also his contract year

 

Largely meaningless. He might be more likely to play through some nicks and bruises, but no reason to project it to impact his production. 

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So tired of hearing about Machado's knees. Has played 156 or more games the past 3 seasons. He's fine. I'm hoping to draft him in as many leagues as possible this season with supreme confidence.

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On 1/1/2018 at 6:50 PM, Low and Away said:

Most analysts on MLB don't feel his knees hold up to playing SS full time. 

Are they stupid? 

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11 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Are they stupid? 

I wouldn't go as far as calling these analysts stupid, they're analysts for a reason (let's hope so), and they do raise a valid concern. I get it, major surgeries on both knees, switching to a position that requires more physical demand, seems logical. BUT he is a few years removed from these surgeries, and has been a gamer ever since. I vote draft him with full confidence, with the hopeful shortstop eligibility as a bonus, not a burden. Bottom line, 3 years of 156+ games is a decent enough track record to be confident, and if something happens, chalk it up to bad luck. His top 5 upside is worth every penny in my opinion.

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Not quite sure I see "top-5 upside" given the lack of steals (I realize he swiped 9 last year but don't see that repeating) and the fact that he's always been more of a good than great hitter. I know he's only 25 but he's only OPSed above .800 in 2 of his 6 major league seasons so far. If we're talking purely from a fantasy standpoint I would not put him in the top-5 upside conversation. 

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9 hours ago, GeekUSA said:

I wouldn't go as far as calling these analysts stupid, they're analysts for a reason (let's hope so), and they do raise a valid concern. I get it, major surgeries on both knees, switching to a position that requires more physical demand, seems logical. BUT he is a few years removed from these surgeries, and has been a gamer ever since. I vote draft him with full confidence, with the hopeful shortstop eligibility as a bonus, not a burden. Bottom line, 3 years of 156+ games is a decent enough track record to be confident, and if something happens, chalk it up to bad luck. His top 5 upside is worth every penny in my opinion.

Nah, they're stupid. 

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24 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Nah, they're stupid. 

i trust half the people here more than most analyst (cough tao cough)

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36 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i trust half the people here more than most analyst (cough tao cough)

I'd agree. My favorite is from Razzball when they do the Ken "Get Him in Your Lineup" Rosenthal stick. I giggle like  a school girl every damn time.

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5 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I'd agree. My favorite is from Razzball when they do the Ken "Get Him in Your Lineup" Rosenthal stick. I giggle like  a school girl every damn time.

do you like grey from razzball?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

do you like grey from razzball?

Usually. A lot of times I get tired of his schtick by August, but I think he makes a lot of sense. 

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Grey tries too hard to seem clever with the way he writes his articles. In fact, all of Razzball's writers are the same way.

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Grey tries too hard to seem clever with the way he writes his articles. In fact, all of Razzball's writers are the same way.

Well that is the way they write... it's intentional... 

 

Anyway, they have pretty good analysis overall. Good site, imo.

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so does this put MM back in the late first round?

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44 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

so does this put MM back in the late first round?

Not for me, his BB% is too low and I'm not a fan of the lineup. Early second rounder, in my opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Not for me, his BB% is too low and I'm not a fan of the lineup. Early second rounder, in my opinion. 

it puts him ahead of correa and lindor IMO

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

it puts him ahead of correa and lindor IMO

I don't know, I think both Correa and Lindor are better players than Machado and they play in much better lineups. 

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