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Manny Machado 2018 Outlook

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25 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

What?

Here are his splits:

Home: 48 games 203 AB's.360/.448/.691 17 homers

Away: 48 games 210 AB's .274/.329/.468 7 homers

 

That's what he's doing this season. It's actually what's happening now. Those numbers are significantly different. Are you guys kidding? 

 

You're missing the point. This coudl very well have less to do with home ballpark and have everything to do with familiarity. 


Jose Ramirez 2018 splits

Home: 49 games 182 AB .330/.435/.692 17 hr

Away: 45 games 176 AB .273/.365/.563 12 hr

 

Mookie Betts 2018 splits

Home: 33 games 122 AB .410/.497/.787 9 hr

Away: 44 games 179 AB .324/.413/.626 14 hr 

 

Mike Trout 2018 splits

Home: 46 games 150 AB .287/.451/.540 10 hr

Away: 50 games 185 AB .330/.457/.659 15 hr

 

Jose Altuve 2018 splits

Home: 53 games 200 AB .300/.369/.430

Away: 46 games 189 AB .365/.421/.513

 

Those are some giant gaps. This is the crutch of small samples. Altuve was better on the road last year too, yet Houston has the crawford boxes. Mike Trout was better at home last year, but better on the road this year. Betts had a higher BA at home last year but higher slugging on the road. Jose Ramirez was better on the road last year but has been far better at home this year. 

Stop reading too far into small samples. Yeah, it's happening now, and it's completely irrelevant. The road parks he's playing at include NYY and Boston. He's a CAREER hitting of .214 in Philly, oh no! Wait, just 4 games... Houston .238 (20 games), US Cellular .286 (17 games), .240 in Toronto (49 games). You think he's a scrub if he goes those places? 

A lot of guys have big home road splits. They may change year to year and completely reverse. Yeah, Camden is good for home runs. There is no denying it, but I'll take that trade off for a much, much better lineup where he'll see more pitches to hit and have more R/RBI opportunity. 


FWIW : Dodger stadium is 7th overall in park factor for homers this year. Not the worst landing place. They were 15th last year. 

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I'm completely with you when it comes to concern about hrs. Over his career he's hit roughly 62% of his hrs at home. So not a stark difference between home and away, but a difference.

 

The reason i was really hoping for the Phillies, besides being a fan, was how CBP would have played perfectly to Manny, and wasn't markedly different from Camden. Oh well.

45 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

What?

Here are his splits:

Home: 48 games 203 AB's.360/.448/.691 17 homers

Away: 48 games 210 AB's .274/.329/.468 7 homers

 

That's what he's doing this season. It's actually what's happening now. Those numbers are significantly different. Are you guys kidding? 

 

Edited by High&Inside

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Well Manny isn't a Dodger ... yet:

 

Quote

Wed, Jul 18

 

According to Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio, there is a "possible snag" in the Dodgers' expected acquisition of Orioles superstar Manny Machado.

Advice: Phillips hears from a source that "one or more" of the prospects that the Dodgers offered to Baltimore had some "issues in their physicals" -- as in, medical issues. This is not new territory for the Orioles, who have multiple times in the recent past rejected trades and asked for contracts to be reworked following physical examinations. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Tuesday night, during the MLB All-Star Game, that Machado was all but certain to be dealt to Los Angeles before the start of the second half. Phillips now writes that this situation "may open the door for other clubs" to jump back in. Stay tuned.

 

More: Steve Phillips on Twitter         (Rotoworld.com)

 

Baltimore is busy annoying yet another team with this crap they pull all the time.

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Jon Heyman of Fancred reports that the medical holdup with the Manny Machado trade isn't related to Dodgers outfield prospect Yusniel Diaz.

Diaz is the headliner of the deal, so any problem with him probably would've meant the deal falling apart. Since the medical issue is with more of a complementary piece, the two sides still figure to work things out even if it means having to alter the trade a bit. It wouldn't appear to be a slam dunk anymore, though, so it's possible the Phillies and/or Brewers put in a call to see if they can jump back in.
 
Make the Call Phils !!!! 

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Phillies have a very good chance of landing him in the off-season.  He may be the difference on their team winning the NL East but I dunno, I still feel as if they're a year or 2 away overall.  I would LOVE to see him on the Phillies but they gotta be smart about depleting their farm system prematurely.

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29 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Phillies have a very good chance of landing him in the off-season.  He may be the difference on their team winning the NL East but I dunno, I still feel as if they're a year or 2 away overall.  I would LOVE to see him on the Phillies but they gotta be smart about depleting their farm system prematurely.

 

The NL is pretty wide open, as a Phillies fan id be fine seeing them give sixto Sanchez and another couple prospects for Britton and machado. If worst case machado walks you get a draft pick to recoup the minor leagues and you’ve addressed the bullpen and given your team a chance to win this year. 

 

From what I’ve seen with the nationals and the Mets in recent years, the worst thing you can do is to slow play a year where you can compete by assuming you’ll be there’s in future. It rarely works that way. If you see an opportunity, seize it. That’s what the eagles did and the sixers failed to do... and I’m hoping it’s what the phils do here.

Edited by cyberer

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1 minute ago, cyberer said:

 

The NL is pretty wide open, as a Phillies fan id be fine seeing them give sixto Sanchez and another prospect for Britton and machado. If worst case machado walks you get a draft pick to recoup the minor leagues and you’ve addressed the bullpen and given your team a chance to win this year. 

 

From what I’ve seen with the nationals and the Mets in recent years, the worst thing you can do is to slow play a year where you can compete by assuming you’ll be there’s in future. It rarely works that way. If you see an opportunity, seize it. That’s what the eagles did and the sixers failed to do... and I’m hoping it’s what the phils do here.

 

I believe it was stated either here or in the trade deadline thread that a comp pick doesn't transfer over if the player is traded.  It goes away.

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2 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

I believe it was stated either here or in the trade deadline thread that a comp pick doesn't transfer over if the player is traded.  It goes away.

 

Is that new in the latest cba? It didn’t used to work that way. Regardless I still think they should do it for the other reasons noted.

Edited by cyberer

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  On 7/17/2018 at 1:18 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Bottom line with the compensation picks a team will get for Machado rental I’m not letting any low level pitching prospect stand in way of a deal. 

Teams that trade for players with comp picks attached to them don't receive those comp picks...they go away. If/When Manny walks away from the Dodgers at the end of the season, the Dodgers will get nothing.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry for the terrible layout.

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Just now, cyberer said:

 

Is that new in the latest cba? It didn’t used to work that way. 

 

I have no idea.  I would ask @Halo Fan

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1 minute ago, cyberer said:

 

The NL is pretty wide open, as a Phillies fan id be fine seeing them give sixto Sanchez and another prospect for Britton and machado. If worst case machado walks you get a draft pick to recoup the minor leagues and you’ve addressed the bullpen and given your team a chance to win this year. 

 

From what I’ve seen with the nationals and the Mets in recent years, the worst thing you can do is to slow play a year where you can compete by assuming you’ll be there’s in future. It rarely works that way. If you see an opportunity, seize it. That’s what the eagles did and the sixers failed to do... and I’m hoping it’s what the phils do here.

 

I don't believe you get picks for players you trade for, but I could be mistaken there.

 

And I disagree on moving Sixto.  Pitching prospects are so fickle, but he looks like he could be special and young star pitching is, IMO, key to long term success of a team. And while the NL open to a degree, I don't see them taking down the top AL teams this year.  I'd rather be great in 2-3 years than good now.  I see what you're saying about missing your window though.

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16 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

I don't believe you get picks for players you trade for, but I could be mistaken there.

 

And I disagree on moving Sixto.  Pitching prospects are so fickle, but he looks like he could be special and young star pitching is, IMO, key to long term success of a team. And while the NL open to a degree, I don't see them taking down the top AL teams this year.  I'd rather be great in 2-3 years than good now.  I see what you're saying about missing your window though.

 

I love prospects and the whole thing but minor league arms are a dime a dozen and getting that head start on negotiating with machado, after he’s had a chance to know and love the team, have purchased a home, etc so having the inside track to signing him is worth some guy who could be bumgarner or could be Jacob turner. Not to mention the added benefit of a possible pennant this year. 

 

I googled mlb rules and can’t see anything about a traded player not getting compensatory picks. The process was revised in the new cba but only as pertains to revenue sharing teams vs luxury tax teams getting different rounds. 

 

Edit: I found another source that says you can’t make a qualifying offer to a traded player, so that’s why. 

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mlb.com/259650658-mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained.amp.html

 

 

What kind of compensation pick will a club that loses such a player receive?
It depends.

Under the previous CBA, if a team made a qualifying offer to a player and he signed elsewhere, it would get a supplemental first-round Draft pick (right after the end of the first round). That has all changed.

Under the new rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2018 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Astros, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The nine clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox.

If the team that loses the player went over the luxury-tax threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed (as with the previous scenario, it doesn't matter how much the player signs for). The five clubs in this group are the Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Tigers and Yankees.

Keep in mind, these team designations could change every season. As a quick rule of thumb, Draft-pick compensation breaks down like this:

* General rule: Compensation after Comp Round B (in pick 75-80 range)
* Exception 1: Team paid luxury tax = Compensation after fourth round (mid-100s)
* Exception 2: Team received revenue sharing AND free agent signed for more than $50 million = Compensation after the first round

Edited by cyberer
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18 minutes ago, cyberer said:

after he’s had a chance to know and love the team, have purchased a home, etc so having the inside track to signing him

 

Wait, why would he buy a house when he's only guaranteed to be with the club for two months?  Hotels and short-term rentals still exist, do they not?  Meanwhile "know and love the team" is a very quaint notion that I'm afraid will have no basis in reality.  Guys with 10 years devoted to a club might take a small hometown discount, but nobody is going to bond with a team in two months.  The Phils would be lucky if he can remember where the bathroom is at CBP given how much time they'll spend on the road.

 

The one and only reason to shell out for Manny is if you think it substantially increases your chance to win it all this year.  I think with the way things are set up now, without any other moves that we know about, it maybe doubles their chances -- from one percent to two percent.  That is not worth Sixto or Medina to me.

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24 minutes ago, cyberer said:

 

The NL is pretty wide open, as a Phillies fan id be fine seeing them give sixto Sanchez and another couple prospects for Britton and machado. If worst case machado walks you get a draft pick to recoup the minor leagues and you’ve addressed the bullpen and given your team a chance to win this year. 

 

From what I’ve seen with the nationals and the Mets in recent years, the worst thing you can do is to slow play a year where you can compete by assuming you’ll be there’s in future. It rarely works that way. If you see an opportunity, seize it. That’s what the eagles did and the sixers failed to do... and I’m hoping it’s what the phils do here.

 

No way Sixto should be traded.  That is WAY WAY overpay for a rental or even rentals.  Get Manny in the off season.  Don't screw up your future for a couple of months.  Sixto is the real deal.  Not some dime a dozen prospect.

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Orioles love failing physicals at last second when they get buyer/seller remorse.

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36 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

I don't believe you get picks for players you trade for, but I could be mistaken there.

 

And I disagree on moving Sixto.  Pitching prospects are so fickle, but he looks like he could be special and young star pitching is, IMO, key to long term success of a team. And while the NL open to a degree, I don't see them taking down the top AL teams this year.  I'd rather be great in 2-3 years than good now.  I see what you're saying about missing your window though.

Nope you are right they wouldn't get a pick and trading Sixto is not a good move.  

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54 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Orioles love failing physicals at last second when they get buyer/seller remorse.

This is our only good chip.  Need to get everything possible for Manny. 

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32 minutes ago, tcorb22 said:

so is he playing friday?

I don’t see why not. He has tomorrow to travel and meet the team and has had a break with the ASG anyway. It wasn’t a surprise I’m sure he was prepared for the move already. 

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After Diaz, they got 2 RHP and 2 INF, and I've never heard of any of them. LOL

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“Did you see what he was wearing today on the red carpet? That’s Hollywood right there," Kemp said with a laugh.

 

ny-1531878144-hr1m10ae8o-snap-image

 

I'd say he's ready to play for LA.

 

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Does anyone have any data/links thereof about players switching leagues at or near the trade deadline in terms of performance? I'm really curious what the projections are for Manny switching coasts and leagues.

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Congrats to the Dodgers, aka Handy Manny and the Tools!

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