thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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9 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Imagine Penny in SF as a cheap replacement for Hyde.  Where would he rank then?

Or as the new Detroit RB?

Or in Oakland?

 

Id love to see him in any of those places.

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4 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Imagine Penny in SF as a cheap replacement for Hyde.  Where would he rank then?

Or as the new Detroit RB?

Or in Oakland?

 

SF > Oakland >> Detroit as far as situations go IMO. I think SF RB1 is gonna step up from low end to mid rage fantasy RB1 next year as the whole offense improves. Penny or Hyde, doesn't matter. Just my hunch. 

 

I know Detroit hasn't had great RBs but until that team and offense shows willingness to feed a guy, I'm staying away. Riddick at least will still have a prominent role which caps fantasy value. 

 

Oakland is high upside but low floor. Lots of good weapons, but Gruden for all the fan fare has never had great offenses. Crabtree is probably gone which could hurt too.

 

Don't they need to sign Hyde in FA before the draft, though? Kind of risky if you let Hyde walk and then miss your guy. They should really switch the order of draft and FA I feel like. Wouldn't have had the Peterson fiasco last year if so. 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 Don't they need to sign Hyde in FA before the draft, though? Kind of risky if you let Hyde walk and then miss your guy. They should really switch the order of draft and FA I feel like. Wouldn't have had the Peterson fiasco last year if so. 

 

I don't think they want Hyde for their system. IMO they could ride with Joe Williams, Matt Breida, and Kyle Juszczyk. There are a couple of RB that could thrive in SF. The end of last year demonstrated how Hyde isn't the right type of back for Kyle Shanahan.

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1 hour ago, thebrowns said:

 

I don't think they want Hyde for their system. IMO they could ride with Joe Williams, Matt Breida, and Kyle Juszczyk. There are a couple of RB that could thrive in SF. The end of last year demonstrated how Hyde isn't the right type of back for Kyle Shanahan.

 

Joe Williams is a jag imo.  He wasn't even on Lynch's draft board either. 

 

I'm curious, what did you see at the end of last year that made you think Hyde isn't the right type of back for Shanahan?

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

Joe Williams is a jag imo.  He wasn't even on Lynch's draft board either. 

 

I'm curious, what did you see at the end of last year that made you think Hyde isn't the right type of back for Shanahan?

 

I'm struggling to find the stats for game splits but I know that his receiving numbers dropped off after Garoppolo took over.  breaks seemed like the favorable option there.  Hyde was having a career year (finished with 59 receptions)  before Jimmy took over.  I'm just guessing they won't over spend to keep him. 

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48 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

I'm struggling to find the stats for game splits but I know that his receiving numbers dropped off after Garoppolo took over.  breaks seemed like the favorable option there.  Hyde was having a career year (finished with 59 receptions)  before Jimmy took over.  I'm just guessing they won't over spend to keep him. 

 

I don't get the feeling they will either FWIW.

 

Yes,  his targets dropped off but that was a function of Jimmy g being willing and able to throw the ball downfield to wrs as opposed to rookie beathard.

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4 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Joe Williams is a jag imo.  He wasn't even on Lynch's draft board either. 

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2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

I don't get the feeling they will either FWIW.

 

Yes,  his targets dropped off but that was a function of Jimmy g being willing and able to throw the ball downfield to wrs as opposed to rookie beathard.

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Great points. Thank you for the thoughtful discussion.

 

Hyde receiving:

 

2017: 16 Games - 88 Targets; 59 Receptions; 350 YDs; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate

 

2014-2016: 34 Games; 64 Targets; 50 Receptions; 284 YDS; 3TDs; 78% Completion Rate 

Final 5 games of 2017 (With Jimmy Garoppolo): 5 games; 15 Targets; 10 Receptions; 55 Yds; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate

 

Regarding Joe Williams being JAG; I’d argue that is what Hyde is too. Maybe it is a hot take. I think that you would read his stat line and not know who he is. Most of the NFL is interchangeable, so it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I’m just arguing that Williams (IF healthy, probably can fill in for Hyde with Matt Breida getting more work and for there to be no drop off). I don’t think it is “risky” to let Hyde go and try to draft a dynamic replacement.

 

He has never rushed for 1000 yards (988 in 13 games in 2016 and 938 in 16 games in 2017). He was 13th in the league in yards from scrimmage this year (82 yards ahead of the 34 year old Frank Gore.) He was 27th in the league in yards from scrimmage in (13 games) 2016.

 

That sounds like a JAG to me. It is weird because we know the name. He just doesn’t have the production, in 4 years. He will be 28 in 2018. There was even talk in the offseason that he could be cut. That seems like an average stat line. If Hyde was good to great those numbers would really pop. Two of his worst 5 games of 2017 came with Garoppolo under center (both wins). Both games were top 5 in usage (rushes and targets). 2017: 240 attempts/938yds/3.91yds-an-attempt/8tds | 88 targets/59receptions/350yds/67%ctch%/0tds.
That 3.91 yds an attempt is 28th in the NFL in 2017. That sounds like JAG production.

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, thebrowns said:

He has never rushed for 1000 yards (988 in 13 games in 2016 and 938 in 16 games in 2017). He was 13th in the league in yards from scrimmage this year (82 yards ahead of the 34 year old Frank Gore.) He was 27th in the league in yards from scrimmage in (13 games) 2016.

 

That sounds like a JAG to me.

 

I would be hesitant to put too much stock in the numbers considering the OL was pretty bad, and they had 3 different QBs over the course of the year. Eye test shows good tackle breaking, quick feet, average pass catching.  He may be an average RB by NFL-starter  standards but you can still go to war with those kind of guys. 

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12 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I would be hesitant to put too much stock in the numbers considering the OL was pretty bad, and they had 3 different QBs over the course of the year. Eye test shows good tackle breaking, quick feet, average pass catching.  He may be an average RB by NFL-starter  standards but you can still go to war with those kind of guys. 

 

Definitely go to war with them. But at what cost? 

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19 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

Definitely go to war with them. But at what cost? 

 

Agree the price should be a factor deciding whether to keep him or not.

 

I was just talking to your point that Hyde appears to be JAG, which I disagree with. Different from the cost/benefit discussion which I think we're on the same page about. 

 

I view guys like Alfred Blue as JAGs. But to be 13th in yards from scrimmage despite the OL and 3 QBs is a decent accomplishment. I.e. Just view the stats differently, when taking it with film.  There's 32 starters and countless backups. Maybe 12 of those starters fall into the JAG category (aka utterly replacable).  Abdullah, Jamaal Williams, Lamar Miller, Thomas Rawls, Bilal Powell, Isaiah Crowell, M Lynch .... These guys are fine but nothing special, JAGs.  I do think Hyde gives you more than those guys. Just my opinion tho. 

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I agree with our Lord !

 

Gurley's stats after 2016 probably didn't "pop" either but like Hyde he was a victim of a weak line, poor coaching and playing on a losing team without other threats to take the defenses attention away. Playing from behind doesn't lend itself to playing to Hyde's strength. While serviceable as a receiving back he's never been a top hurry up offense / 2 minute drill back. So he gets substituted for .

 

Don't think he will see a huge market willing to pay top dollar with so many rookies as potential starter types. That may keep Hyde affordable enough to bring back in the '49er fold. Personally I like his talent over almost every rookie not named Guice or Barkley. But a rookie contract price for Penny, Chubb or paying twice as much for Carlos I could see him being let go. 

 

Would take him late in FA for our Lions at a reasonable cost gladly.

Edited by howlin' 2
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1 hour ago, howlin' 2 said:

Would take him late in FA for our Lions at a reasonable cost gladly.

 

I think he is perfect for Detroit.  With Riddick owning 3rd downs (I think we can cut Abdullah who is redundant to Riddick, and save some money), we really just need an early down hammer.  I would much rather the Lions spend all their draft stock on Defensive Front 7, maybe an OL or two, and then just sign Hyde to a friendly deal.  That way we don't need to spend a 1st/2nd round pick on a stud running back.  Much as I'd love a 3 down bell cow, Riddick is not going away.

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18 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I think he is perfect for Detroit.  With Riddick owning 3rd downs (I think we can cut Abdullah who is redundant to Riddick, and save some money), we really just need an early down hammer.  I would much rather the Lions spend all their draft stock on Defensive Front 7, maybe an OL or two, and then just sign Hyde to a friendly deal.  That way we don't need to spend a 1st/2nd round pick on a stud running back.  Much as I'd love a 3 down bell cow, Riddick is not going away.

 

I think Kerryon would be a better fit to pair with Riddick/Abdullah. 

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So now Jaylen Samuels is going through the combine as a TE? I don't really understand this. Is he really going to try to be a 5'11" TE in the NFL, or is he just showing off his versatility? 

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2 hours ago, wonderbread said:

So now Jaylen Samuels is going through the combine as a TE? I don't really understand this. Is he really going to try to be a 5'11" TE in the NFL, or is he just showing off his versatility?

 
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I'm interested to see where he measures. I've heard natural comps to Delanie Walker.  I've also read a Joique Bell comp. So I guess we'll just see. I am super intrigued by him but I'm not sure I'm clamoring to draft him for fantasy.

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On 2/3/2018 at 3:49 PM, thebrowns said:

 

I'm struggling to find the stats for game splits but I know that his receiving numbers dropped off after Garoppolo took over.  breaks seemed like the favorable option there.  Hyde was having a career year (finished with 59 receptions)  before Jimmy took over.  I'm just guessing they won't over spend to keep him. 

I’m interested to see where Crowell ends up.  He wasn’t used as much in the passing game as Hyde, but he did look a bit better at it.

 

In the draft everyone is going to be looking for the next Kamara.  Veteran’s like Hyde and Crowell will be available cheap, I suspect the demand is going to be greatest for those that can block.  Rookie RB’s are typically terrible at blocking...

 

But if you’re the Colts, Giants, or Seattle a veteran could get some very good playing time.

 

I included Seattle because their RB injuries have to be incredibly annoying... I rooting for Chris Carson, but what a mess for fantasy.

 

I’m not finding any pass blocking grades for last year...

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Do you find yourself falling for each guy in this class as you watch this class on film and read analysis?

 

I'm constantly moving guys into my to three. There are like 8 guys in my to 3.

 

Right now I really like Bark, Guice, and Jones II as my top 3. Michel, Chubb, Kerryon, Penny, Freeman, John Kelly.  All guys i like. 

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Are you watching highlights or specific games they play?   Easy to fall in love with them from highlights but I like the guys you mentioned.  This does seem like a fairly deep class of talented RBs but Barkley is 1, 2, and 3 for me.  Then the others follow.

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14 minutes ago, JHM_13 said:

Are you watching highlights or specific games they play?   Easy to fall in love with them from highlights but I like the guys you mentioned.  This does seem like a fairly deep class of talented RBs but Barkley is 1, 2, and 3 for me.  Then the others follow.

 

Agreed Barkley in his own tier. Then everyone else is landing spot dependent

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25 minutes ago, JHM_13 said:

Are you watching highlights or specific games they play?   Easy to fall in love with them from highlights but I like the guys you mentioned.  This does seem like a fairly deep class of talented RBs but Barkley is 1, 2, and 3 for me.  Then the others follow.

 

10 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

 

Agreed Barkley in his own tier. Then everyone else is landing spot dependent

 

I despise highlights. I watch every snap against top 50 rush defenses. With 8-10 solid prospects it's hard to find time to do more. I want to see how a back blocks and how they deal with contact at or before the line.

 

Nick Chubb has a great play against Oklahoma where he breaks two tackles and then accelerates for a big gain, I'm sick of seeing it on Twitter, I'm concerned with his inability at times to pick the right hole and to power over defenders. He has good strength and vision, but those aren't always in play. 

 

I like Barkley too. He ous a very good prospect but I don't think he's transcendent. Definitely the #1 but he's not guaranteed to be the best of this class. He definitely has a rediculous blend of size, strength, agility, speed, etc with great running and catching instincts. 

 

I'm really interested to see where Jones II measures are the end of the month. The dude had shown improvement every year. 

 

Kerryon Johnson is a nasty runner with probably the best home run burst we've seen in awhile. 

 

Guice rarely gets caught at the line. Sometimes he chooses a 3 year run through a wall instead of breaking on by waiting for a developing hole. Guice doesn't do a great job yet of making a seamless catch, it's hitchy instead of fluid. He is a pure runner. 

 

Barkley and Jones are my favorite blockers. 

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Currently hold the Rookie 1:09, 1:12, and 2:02 in a 12 Team IDP Dynasty League (team in signature).

 

Realizing my top 5 (Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, and Kerryon) will not fall to me, I've got eyes on RB Kalen Ballage (1st) and Damien Harris (2nd). I'm not a fan AT ALL of the tape I've watched on Penny. If memory serves me correctly, I saw him continuously bottled up by less than stellar defensive competition (if someone can point me to some positive film I'd definitely check it out).

 

So, if it comes down to it, and Ballage is gone by 1:09  (I'll draft a top LB), and if Harris is gone by 1:12, I'll probably tag another top LB at 1:12 or QB LJackson, and just reach for a RB at 2:01 (Freeman/Adams, and then Jones).

 

Disclaimer: landing spots will be the final variable in draft slot determination.

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51 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

Currently hold the Rookie 1:09, 1:12, and 2:02 in a 12 Team IDP Dynasty League (team in signature).

 

Realizing my top 5 (Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, and Kerryon) will not fall to me, I've got eyes on RB Kalen Ballage (1st) and Damien Harris (2nd). I'm not a fan AT ALL of the tape I've watched on Penny. If memory serves me correctly, I saw him continuously bottled up by less than stellar defensive competition (if someone can point me to some positive film I'd definitely check it out).

 

So, if it comes down to it, and Ballage is gone by 1:09  (I'll draft a top LB), and if Harris is gone by 1:12, I'll probably tag another top LB at 1:12 or QB LJackson, and just reach for a RB at 2:01 (Freeman/Adams, and then Jones).

 

Disclaimer: landing spots will be the final variable in draft slot determination.

I thought Damien Harris was returning to school in 2018. 

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1 minute ago, wonderbread said:

I thought Damien Harris was returning to school in 2018. 

 

I'll double check that, and thanks for the heads-up!

 

EDIT: you are correct, wonderbread B) *pretty sure I would have figured that out prior to drafting, but it's always good to remove variables from the thought process which are not even plausible :thumbs-up:

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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On 2/8/2018 at 11:32 AM, FollowTheLeader said:

Currently hold the Rookie 1:09, 1:12, and 2:02 in a 12 Team IDP Dynasty League (team in signature).

 

Realizing my top 5 (Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, and Kerryon) will not fall to me, I've got eyes on RB Kalen Ballage (1st) and Damien Harris (2nd). I'm not a fan AT ALL of the tape I've watched on Penny. If memory serves me correctly, I saw him continuously bottled up by less than stellar defensive competition (if someone can point me to some positive film I'd definitely check it out).

 

So, if it comes down to it, and Ballage is gone by 1:09  (I'll draft a top LB), and if Harris is gone by 1:12, I'll probably tag another top LB at 1:12 or QB LJackson, and just reach for a RB at 2:01 (Freeman/Adams, and then Jones).

 

Disclaimer: landing spots will be the final variable in draft slot determination.

 

Ronald Jones won’t fall to you. Kerryon Johnson more likely to fall to you. 

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On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 8:07 AM, boltup15 said:

 

Ronald Jones won’t fall to you. Kerryon Johnson more likely to fall to you. 

 

That would be awesome! I would rather Kerryon fell to me (notice I said Kerryon was in my top 5 RBs, and going in the first 8 picks). Jones is my least favorite of the 9 RBs I listed (removed Harris as he is staying at AL)

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