thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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Anyways. Preliminary top 7 rb rankings:

 

1. Barkley

2. Guice

3. Chubb

4. Michel

5. Jones

6/7. Penny/Kerryon Johnson. 

 

Combine/Landing spot will change rankings but if I could land any of these RB's in a first round in Dynasty I'd be pretty stoked. Still need to watch more Kerryon Johnson but so far I like him a lot. 

 

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

Anyways. Preliminary top 7 rb rankings:

 

1. Barkley

2. Guice

3. Chubb

4. Michel

5. Jones

6/7. Penny/Kerryon Johnson. 

 

Combine/Landing spot will change rankings but if I could land any of these RB's in a first round in Dynasty I'd be pretty stoked. Still need to watch more Kerryon Johnson but so far I like him a lot. 

 

 

I'm a little worried about Johnson's durability. Otherwise I'd be higher on him. I read mixed things on Penny, but a few have said he just looks average. I'm currently high on Ballage. I'm resisting the urge to go all in on Michel because i think he'll be good not great. 

 

My updated ratings: 

 

RB    Saquon Barkley    Penn State
RB    Derrius Guice    LSU
RB    Kalen Ballage    Arizona State
RB    Royce Freeman    Oregon
RB    Ronald Jones    USC
RB    Nick Chubb    Georgia
RB    Mark Walton    Miami
RB    Lavon Coleman    Washington
RB    Sony Michel    Georgia
RB    John Kelly    Tennesse
RB    josh adams    Notre Dame
RB    Kerryon Johnson    Auburn
RB    Nyheim Hines    NC State
RB    Rashaad Penny    SD ST
RB    Akrum Wadley    Iowa
RB    Ty Johnson    Maryland
RB    Larry Rose III    New Mexico St
RB    Darrel Williams    LSU

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33 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

I'm a little worried about Johnson's durability. Otherwise I'd be higher on him. I read mixed things on Penny, but a few have said he just looks average. I'm currently high on Ballage. I'm resisting the urge to go all in on Michel because i think he'll be good not great. 

 

My updated ratings: 

 

RB    Saquon Barkley    Penn State
RB    Derrius Guice    LSU
RB    Kalen Ballage    Arizona State
RB    Royce Freeman    Oregon
RB    Ronald Jones    USC
RB    Nick Chubb    Georgia
RB    Mark Walton    Miami
RB    Lavon Coleman    Washington
RB    Sony Michel    Georgia
RB    John Kelly    Tennesse
RB    josh adams    Notre Dame
RB    Kerryon Johnson    Auburn
RB    Nyheim Hines    NC State
RB    Rashaad Penny    SD ST
RB    Akrum Wadley    Iowa
RB    Ty Johnson    Maryland
RB    Larry Rose III    New Mexico St
RB    Darrel Williams    LSU

 

Freeman, Ballage over Nick Chubb; Walton and Coleman over Michel and Johnson and Penny. I don't understand. After Guice did you randomly select the rest? Even the Ballage truthers don't have him at 3. He does have upside but over Chubb? Are you kidding? Chubb's proven consistently he's one of the best RB's in the NFL, great vision and power; people are overreacting to one game........ 

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8 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Freeman, Ballage over Nick Chubb; Walton and Coleman over Michel and Johnson and Penny. I don't understand. After Guice did you randomly select the rest? Even the Ballage truthers don't have him at 3. He does have upside but over Chubb? Are you kidding? Chubb's proven consistently he's one of the best RB's in the NFL, great vision and power; people are overreacting to one game........ 

Landing spot will matter a lot after Guice. I truly think that Ballage is a complete back and that he has more tread on hoods tires than the other guys. This isn't my list of where i think guys will be drafted. Chubb could hold up like Gurley has, his tape pre injury is different from post injury. That could change. His vision is what makes him great and a knee injury doesn't affect that. I'll continually be adjusting my list. 

 

Walton and Coleman both look like complete backs. Johnson is small and injury prone. I'm just not sold on Penny. We haven't been through the combine or draft so this is still a cap shoot. I do have reasoning for where guys are and I'm just a little fluid early on in evaluation. I'm excited to watch more tape, especially on Freeman. He had nice vision and can change direction nicely which compensates for his average athleticism. 

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15 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

Freeman, Ballage over Nick Chubb; Walton and Coleman over Michel and Johnson and Penny. I don't understand. After Guice did you randomly select the rest? Even the Ballage truthers don't have him at 3. He does have upside but over Chubb? Are you kidding? Chubb's proven consistently he's one of the best RB's in the NFL, great vision and power; people are overreacting to one game........ 

Did you mean to type that Chubb has proven that he was one of the best backs in college football?

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Did you mean to type that Chubb has proven that he was one of the best backs in college football?

 

Yes. 

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My top 3

 

barkley

Guice

Michel 

 

guice and Michel are neck and neck. Depends on landing spot

 

 I’m avoiding Chubb. Doesn’t catch passes though no one did at UGA. And I don’t think he’s the same guy since the injury.

Edited by Wild Thing
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21 hours ago, thebrowns said:

Otherwise I'd be higher on him. I read mixed things on Penny, but a few have said he just looks average. 

 

Who said that?  They're absolutely insane and it's obvious they never watched him play.  Top 3 RB in terms of value.

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38 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Who said that?  They're absolutely insane and it's obvious they never watched him play.  Top 3 RB in terms of value.

 I couldn't find my source on that one, I've dug a little more on outside analysis and think i might move him up. It does seem he may depend on fit. He could be like his predecessor pomphrey.

 

RB    Rashaad Penny    SD ST 

   "Good Vision ********Just looks average all around. Lacks lateral quickness and agility.****** | Mel Kiper: ""I think Penny could go in the second round, though he doesn't have the all-around game of Hunt. Penny is going to test well."" | DRAFT BLASTER: ""He checks off all of the boxes for what teams are looking for in a running back- size, speed, pass catching ability, pass protection and not only contributes but excels on special teams. He will most likely drop as teams could label him as a system guy."" |  Josh Norris ROTOWORLD Jan 22: ""At his best, Penny is a one cut, hit the seam and go runner. His long speed is great for his size, and that frequently popped up on long runs. It is difficult for running backs to show their contact balance at all-star games, since defenders are not attempting to take ball carriers to the ground. However, that is my question with Penny, as is his reaction to well-defended fronts. Will he pick up what is blocked, create more, or lose yards by trying to do too much? And possibly most importantly, how is his pass protection?"" |"

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44 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Who said that?  They're absolutely insane and it's obvious they never watched him play.  Top 3 RB in terms of value.

 

 

I'm definitely moving him up on my list, he's showing out this week at senior bowl. Had good speed. Him and Ballage are big and quick and can catch. Qualities i like I  my backs. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 I couldn't find my source on that one, I've dug a little more on outside analysis and think i might move him up. It does seem he may depend on fit. He could be like his predecessor pomphrey.

 

RB    Rashaad Penny    SD ST 

   "Good Vision ********Just looks average all around. Lacks lateral quickness and agility.****** | Mel Kiper: ""I think Penny could go in the second round, though he doesn't have the all-around game of Hunt. Penny is going to test well."" | DRAFT BLASTER: ""He checks off all of the boxes for what teams are looking for in a running back- size, speed, pass catching ability, pass protection and not only contributes but excels on special teams. He will most likely drop as teams could label him as a system guy."" |  Josh Norris ROTOWORLD Jan 22: ""At his best, Penny is a one cut, hit the seam and go runner. His long speed is great for his size, and that frequently popped up on long runs. It is difficult for running backs to show their contact balance at all-star games, since defenders are not attempting to take ball carriers to the ground. However, that is my question with Penny, as is his reaction to well-defended fronts. Will he pick up what is blocked, create more, or lose yards by trying to do too much? And possibly most importantly, how is his pass protection?"" |"

 

Dude, Pomphrey is like 160 pounds....there's no comparison there physically.  Pomphrey was never going to be a lead back in the NFL sadly, despite how slick he is.  Penny just put up over 2,000 yards and strung together 4 200+ yard games to end the season.  They're not wrong about special teams either, as he took several to the house.  I highly implore you to watch his highlights from last year, he jumps off the screen.

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3 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

 

I'm definitely moving him up on my list, he's showing out this week at senior bowl. Had good speed. Him and Ballage are big and quick and can catch. Qualities i like I  my backs. 

 

Yeah, and outside of Ballage, most of the RB's on that list aren't highly touted.

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2 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Dude, Pomphrey is like 160 pounds....there's no comparison there physically.  Pomphrey was never going to be a lead back in the NFL sadly, despite how slick he is.  Penny just put up over 2,000 yards and strung together 4 200+ yard games to end the season.  They're not wrong about special teams either, as he took several to the house.  I highly implore you to watch his highlights from last year, he jumps off the screen.

1

 

You are right about Pumphrey.  I didn't mean to imply that Pumphrey and Penny are the same player. I think their first year could be similar. It's hard to tell until the draft, I could have said the same thing about Kareem Hunt last year (and would have been wrong).

I just glanced at Penny's YouTube film against the number 11 run defense (Fresno St), number 16 RD (Northern Illinois), and number 17 RD (Boise St). The three top 50 run defenses he faced.

He definitely flashes that same brilliance he had against lesser defenses. He can get around the corner and has potential to break tackles. I know he's big but he really looks like an upright runner. I like him; I don't love him.

Good vision, nice strength, nice ability to get to the edge. Just want to see more, I think system is key for him. Here is some statistical info to go along with the videos.


 

Top 50 Defense

Rushing

Receiving

Special Teams

YDS

Car

Avg

Fum

TD

Rec

YDS

TD

Punt yards avg

Punt TD

Kick Yards Avg

Kick TD

11

Fresno State

69

15

4.6

1

0

1

9

0

-

-

14.2

0

16

Northern Illinois

107

25

4.3

0

0

2

32

1

-

-

28.7

 

17

Boise State

53

21

2.5

0

1

-

-

-

-

-

17

0

TOTAL against top defenses

229

61

3.8

1

1

3

41

1

0

0

20.0

0

10 other teams

2019

228

8.9

2

22

16

94

1

35

1

30.6

2

 

The three games he played against top 20 run defenses were at home. San Diego St was 1-2 in those games.

 

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 28 @ SAN DIEGO STATE 34, 9/30/2017

 

 

BOISE STATE 31 @ SAN DIEGO STATE 14, 10/14/2017

 

FRESNO STATE 27 @ SAN DIEGO STATE 3,  10/21/2017

 

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On 1/25/2018 at 9:51 PM, boltup15 said:

 

Freeman, Ballage over Nick Chubb; Walton and Coleman over Michel and Johnson and Penny. I don't understand. After Guice did you randomly select the rest? Even the Ballage truthers don't have him at 3. He does have upside but over Chubb? Are you kidding? Chubb's proven consistently he's one of the best RB's in the NFL, great vision and power; people are overreacting to one game........ 

 

I'm not reacting to the championship game. I stayed this post with Chubb at 3. As I look at players I truly see more fantasy potential in other players. 

 

Regarding your assertion that I've overvalued Ballage. I truly think he'll have an immediate impact and have longevity. Just a couple tweets from senior bowl:

 

 

 

 

 

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Just saw this tweet from roster watch. I've been intrigued by Jaylen Samuels. He has shown great straight line speed. Maybe i should have him on my list. 

 

 

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Rashaad Penny sure showed out at the senior bowl. I think we saw his limitations for sure; hey also did enough to demonstrate his vision and agility. Just no elite breakaway speed. 

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5 hours ago, thebrowns said:

Rashaad Penny sure showed out at the senior bowl. I think we saw his limitations for sure; hey also did enough to demonstrate his vision and agility. Just no elite breakaway speed. 

 

What's "elite" breakaway speed...... What limitations? 

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He's good at creating space but doesn't have the ability to capitalize on that space like some players. There are guys that, once they are loose, will be good for a td. Penny isn't one of them, can can take it to the house like he did on that td reception but he can't do it regularly. It's something you can see in the film from his play against the three top defenses he played. He's faster than some of the defense, not all of the defense. 

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11 hours ago, thebrowns said:

Rashaad Penny sure showed out at the senior bowl. I think we saw his limitations for sure; hey also did enough to demonstrate his vision and agility. Just no elite breakaway speed. 

 

Le'Veon Bell doesn't have elite breakaway speed either, and he's turned out ok.

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Le'Veon Bell doesn't have elite breakaway speed either, and he's turned out ok.

 

 

That is true. I don't want it to sound like I hate Penny. I think that, especially in the right situation. Chances are I end up drafting him high. I'm posting my list periodically as I change my opinion about different prospects.

 

For example, Ballage had risen to 3 on my RB list (admittedly high) I'll adjust. After seeing him more I agree with those who pontificate that he ought to be moved to WR. I think he is a bigger version of Tyreke Hill (loose comp here). 

 

As for Penny, I will definitely be moving him up. I overreacted to my study of his 3 toughest games; that Boise tape is rough. He tends to get caught at the line a lot. However, that doesn't mean he won't excel. Look at those numbers (not just last year as the premier back but in 2016 when he was the RB2). He definitely has great skill in some areas. I don't know if we have seen the LeBron James of football yet, it is hard to have a complete player.

 

Seeing limitations for a player doesn't mean they won't be great. Brady doesn't have elite arm strength or mobility... pretty sure he turned out okay as well.

 

If the fit is right I will definitely take Penny early (first two rounds). However, this isn't about my specific needs but rather evaluating and ranking players based on how we think they will perform for FF in general. I'm definitely moving him back up my board. I'm thankful for this feed for helping me find placement.

 

Hopefully, we will all find benefit for our individual boards by having an open conversation regarding the strengths and limitations of each player.

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13 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

For example, Ballage had risen to 3 on my RB list (admittedly high) I'll adjust. After seeing him more I agree with those who pontificate that he ought to be moved to WR. I think he is a bigger version of Tyreke Hill (loose comp here). 

 

Bigger version of Tyreek, Ballage has upside, a lot of it, but he's not there yet. Maybe he shows up like Kamara did if put in a good situation.

 

13 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

As for Penny, I will definitely be moving him up. I overreacted to my study of his 3 toughest games; that Boise tape is rough. He tends to get caught at the line a lot.

 

Probably because he's behind a San Diego offensive line. He did great against Stanford. My only issue with Penny is his pass pro is weak. But that can get fixed. Penny is probably one of the best in this class between the tackles, can split out and play wr, and definitely has enough speed... his feel for running between the tackles is what I like most. Combine that with his burst and how quickly he can take the ball to the second level. He's going to be good. 

Edited by boltup15
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On 1/4/2018 at 2:21 PM, CooL said:

Agreed, and none of us were playing fantasy football then...

 

But I do agree that you can't judge a guy by where he went to school.  If he's got talent, he's going to ball when given the chance.  I'm hoping he'll drop to the late first, but I doubt it by the time the hype train gets chugging.

 

This topic is obviously premature, as we don't even know where these RBs will end up.  And by the time you have all the draft guys talking about them, player profiler, all the other fantasy sites... there's no such thing as sleepers anymore in fantasy football unless you're playing with a bunch of prepubescent kids or geezer dinosaurs who don't know how to get on the internet.

hey heyyyye now

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The comparison in the NFL right now imo is Melvin Gordon, Penny is that type of back, good all around back who will have some monster games if given a chance.  Was one of the best kick returners in college as well

 

Penny moved up to my no 4 (depending on situation, could even be my no 2 rb off board)

 

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15 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

The comparison in the NFL right now imo is Melvin Gordon, Penny is that type of back, good all around back who will have some monster games if given a chance.  Was one of the best kick returners in college as well

 

Penny moved up to my no 4 (depending on situation, could even be my no 2 rb off board)

 

 

230 lb guys that can catch and were excellent kick returners are rare players... like DJ and Mixon rare.   They possess special qualities that you just can't teach.

 

I personally have Penny #2 atm in a vacuum.

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