Fuzzy_Slippers

Carlos Carrasco 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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Carrasco had a great season in 2017. It was his first time pitching 200 innings and his numbers were excellent.

 

ERA - 3.29

FIP - 3.10

xFIP - 3.24

SIERA - 3.35

K/9 - 10.17

BB/9 - 2.07

HR/9 - 0.95

 

Those are pretty elite numbers. From the mocks that I have seen, Carrasco seems to be going in the 5th round in 12 team leagues. For those that wait on pitching, he would be an excellent SP1. He strikes guys out, limits the free passes, and keeps the ball in the yard. The fact that he plays for the Indians and should win 15 - 18 games in 2018, is just icing on the cake. 

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Carrasco has been dynamite four seasons running.  

 

2014 he was a swingman, 14 games started, 26 in relief, best ratio's of his career

 

2015-2017 he had a couple of dl stints (shoulder, missed minimum (30 gs)...and hamstring, limited Carlos to 25 gs).  ERA down to 3.29.  WHIP roughly a 1.1.  Elite first strike and swinging strike.  Great ground ball rate near 50% (another elite category).  

 

This guy is just below tier 1's kersh, Kluber, and Sale.  If you get him the season he reaches 225 innings, he'll be a cy young candidate.  

Edited by unknownrotoguru
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  I remember being turned off by last March's elbow swelling right before the season started which turned out to be nothing significant. Anyone still think of him as an elbow injury risk?

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/03/cleveland_indians_carlos_carra_14.html

 

He had Tommy John surgery back in 2011. At what point are pitchers at a greater risk for another elbow injury after having tj surgery. I remember reading something like most pitchers last on average ~6-8 years. 

 

http://www.imaginarybrickwall.com/high-risk-starting-pitchers-in-the-post-tommy-john-surgery-death-zone/

Edited by dsd10988
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Kinda reminds me of an AL Carlos Martinez in terms of fantasy profile. Cmart was going 5th last year too. I'll probably target CC in a similar spot, probably earlier if there's a run on pitching.

Edited by peelpub94

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On 1/5/2018 at 12:55 PM, dsd10988 said:

  I remember being turned off by last March's elbow swelling right before the season started which turned out to be nothing significant. Anyone still think of him as an elbow injury risk?

 

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2017/03/cleveland_indians_carlos_carra_14.html

 

He had Tommy John surgery back in 2011. At what point are pitchers at a greater risk for another elbow injury after having tj surgery. I remember reading something like most pitchers last on average ~6-8 years. 

 

http://www.imaginarybrickwall.com/high-risk-starting-pitchers-in-the-post-tommy-john-surgery-death-zone/

The elbow issue scared me off my plan to draft him, mistake on my part. Sixth ranked SP in my leagues only 2 points behind Greinke.

 

I worry about injuries for all my picks in the first 5 rounds, but nothing specific about Carlos worries me. Plan on owning at least one share.

 

 

 

 

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Carrasco is a stud, unfortunately last year was probably the last time we could get him as a stud. He throws hard, he doesn't walk guys, he strikes guys out, he's on a winning team... a lot to like. Would be very happy to have him as an SP1.

 

Not afraid of the injury risk, he has as much risk as any other pitcher of getting injured at this point.

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should there be any concern with his LD% increasing?

17- 21.7%

16- 20.0%

15- 19.0%

 

for 3 years between 2013 and 2015 he had a GB% over 50, but the last 2 seasons he has dropped to 48.5% and 45.2%.

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5 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

should there be any concern with his LD% increasing?

17- 21.7%

16- 20.0%

15- 19.0%

 

for 3 years between 2013 and 2015 he had a GB% over 50, but the last 2 seasons he has dropped to 48.5% and 45.2%.

 

Well now you did it. You made me double take on LD% because I originally misread it as LSD%.  I was like whoa how is that a performance ENHANCING drug.  (Wow like the ball is like round like the earth and like they both rotate too so that means ... oh wow look at my finders).

 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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In leagues with Wins, I have Carrasco in my 2nd tier of pitchers. Cleveland should dominate the division again as it looks baaaaaad bad bad. KC, CWS and Detroit could all be bottom 5 teams. Otherwise, when he's healthy, he's been a stud. 

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I've owned him for 3 years, hes the worst "best" pitcher in fantasy baseball, never come up big when you need him

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Studly tonight:

 

CG 3-hitter with the only run coming off a HR to off all people Leonys Martin. 6Ks 2BBs.

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1 minute ago, SuperJoint said:

Studly tonight:

 

CG 3-hitter with the only run coming off a HR to off all people Leonys Martin. 6Ks 2BBs.

 

Martin apparently just has his number, he had all three of the Tigers hits.

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something went wrong against Seattle. 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER (5 R), 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR.

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14 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

something went wrong against Seattle. 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER (5 R), 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR.

 

Mariners have his number and he was also missing his spots. He's allowed 10 of his 14 runs this year against the M's. 

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3 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I know he was getting lit up, but was there another reason he was pulled after just 64 pitches?  Was he hurt or just off?

 

That start was going nowhere - mercy killing.

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