shakestreet

NFL Division Round -- Picks

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20 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

AFC: NE, PIT

NFC: ATL, MIN

 

NE:  game could be over before half, just don't see how the Titans keep it close.  41-10

PIT: should be a closer game but think PIT wins, Bortles on the road..just don't see it 20-13

ATL: With Wentz obviously a different story, think this game could end up high scoring 34-27

MIN: Game of the weekend here, interesting matchup.  Think Keenum does just enough to win 20-16

 

 

Agreed with this. 

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Titans

Steelers

Eagles

Vikings

 

Titans are boring enough to contain the Patriots and keep them off the ball.

 

Steelers offense will score just enough to scrape past the Jaguars.

 

Eagles' defense will harass Matt Ryan, breaking through the weakened interior of the Falcons offensive line; creating a few turnovers.

 

Vikings will force Drew Brees to throw 35-40 times, and their secondary will win the battle against the Saints receivers.

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23 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

One team has a good defense and a horrifically bad offense, and they are on the road.  The home team has a very good defense and an excellent, bordering on unstoppable, offense led by a two-time super bowl champion and future hall of fame quarterback.  I am going to go ahead and go with the home team.  Is that analysis complete enough for you?

Their offense isn't unstoppable. They wasn't even the best offense in the NFL this year.

Jacksonville (as well as 6 other teams) actually averaged more points per game than Pittsburgh and Jacksonville was right there in total yards per game at 365 yards where as Pitt averaged 377. 

 

Do the Steelers have a good offense, Yes. Are they unstoppable, No and that is a gross exaggeration that isn't even supported by stats. 

 

What has been the key to the Steelers success this season is winning most of the close games. They went 9-2 in games decided by less than one score. They make clutch plays down the stretch. That's why I'm picking them this week but it isn't because they are unstoppable. That is down right a laughable statement. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

That's what everyone said about KC last week lol

 

While mostly true you can’t account for key injuries like Kelce and fluke plays like Mariota TD to himself. We are making predictions here and not determining the future in advance. I’ve already predicted one underdog victory (JAX) on the possibility of strong defensive performance and flat performance by Steelers. Sure it could just as easily be TEN surprising the Pats, especially considering how flat Brady has been lately. 

 

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3 HOME + Saints

 

Markrc99

FlyinFiesta6

devaster

Malta69

 

3 HOME + Falcons

 

shakestreet

Corleone

Jushua

nrmomn

Murraygd13

Psidersider

nonstopfan

dmb3684

 

3 HOME + Jags

 

DaltonGang

 

3 HOME + Titans

 

predator05

Edited by shakestreet
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2 HOME + Falcons & Saints

 

Castzpg

Tomptastic

ZekePeake

GoHawks

sharkswimmer

RustyMiller

 

2 HOME + Falcons & Jags

 

RMJ12

Crotchcrickets

 

2 HOME + Jags & Saints

 

1stDownSyndrome

Jumper

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ill tell you what after hearing a lot of talking heads out there.....Eagles should just send their captains out to midfield, leave everyone else in the locker room and just wave a white flag at the coin toss and call it a day.

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1 hour ago, Cdub2k said:

Their offense isn't unstoppable. They wasn't even the best offense in the NFL this year.

Jacksonville (as well as 6 other teams) actually averaged more points per game than Pittsburgh and Jacksonville was right there in total yards per game at 365 yards where as Pitt averaged 377. 

 

Do the Steelers have a good offense, Yes. Are they unstoppable, No and that is a gross exaggeration that isn't even supported by stats. 

 

What has been the key to the Steelers success this season is winning most of the close games. They went 9-2 in games decided by less than one score. They make clutch plays down the stretch. That's why I'm picking them this week but it isn't because they are unstoppable. That is down right a laughable statement. 

 

 

Bordering on unstoppable is what I said.  And average points per game can be a misleading stat.  When Pittsburgh put teams away and did not keep scoring in the fourth quarters, that lowers their average.  While the game is in doubt and the opponents needed a stop, basically all season they could not get one.  Only the refs stopped the Steelers in that New England game. 

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On 1/8/2018 at 8:00 PM, markrc99 said:

 

I picked the Saints, but the people eaters can definitely win this game! Of course, if this was then and a dome team had to go there, I mean, forget it! i never understood taking that inside, that epitomized what the Vikings were about. Can you imagine that now, a little bombo-geni action going on this weekend? Omg, the Saints wouldn't even show up! e; Seriously, all they have to do is expose Brees' weakness, which is his lack of height. There he is right now, frozen on my screen, being interviewed by a female reporter for the NFL Network, who is as tall as he is....!! 

 

He can't make all the throws, not w/o the Vikings helping him. A guy that short can't get the ball to his receivers over the middle w/o throwing lanes. By making him throw everything over defenders will alter the trajectory of every throw of 15 yards or less. More likely it would discourage a lot of them. While in the back, you'd funnel every route back inside. Exposing his weakness, as best they can, will limit the area of the field he can effectively attack. 

huh? Seriously?  ... Drew Brees has made every freaking throw for 17 freaking years.

 

 

3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If Sam Bradford were healthy and had played the entire season, then I might agree.  Case Keenum?  Don't think so.

 

N.O. >>  Carolina >> Minnesota w/ Keenum.

let me remind you what you wrote last week

 

 

Chiefs. (Tennessee is one of the worst teams to make the playoffs in years).

Rams (Falcons just really aren't very good).

Bills (Jax is a fraud).

Panthers (Carolina stuffs the run, Drew's arm won't be able to beat them through the air.  Carolina is hot, Saints backed in with a BAD loss to Tampa.  Cam is always a defensive scheme buster because of what he can do with his legs).

 

Edited by shakestreet
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Yep, I blew that one.  Thought Carolina had the matchup and the momentum.  Keenum is no Cam. 

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40 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

huh? Seriously?  ... Drew Brees has made every freaking throw for 17 freaking years.

 

No kidding.  You'd think the guy who's thrown for over 5,000 yards multiple times, had the all-time best season completion percentage this year (and 3 of the top 4 overall all-time), AND will be #1 on the NFL all time passing yards list early next year absent career ending injury would get a lot more respect.  Gun to head and my life depending on picking a QB who would accurately make any throw asked of him then Brees would probably be the guy I'd pick to make that pass. 

Edited by jumper
typo

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Yep, I blew that one.  Thought Carolina had the matchup and the momentum.  Keenum is no Cam. 

As you stated before, apparently all that matters is your QB.

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4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Keenum is no Cam. 

Correct, Keenum can throw.

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If anyone thinks Brees can't beat a team through the air they need to find a new hobby.

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Would like to see people’s opinions ATS. 

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8 hours ago, shakestreet said:

"huh? Seriously?  ... Drew Brees has made every freaking throw for 17 freaking years."

 

8 hours ago, jumper said:

"No kidding.  You'd think the guy who's thrown for over 5,000 yards multiple times, had the all-time best season completion percentage this year (and 3 of the top 4 overall all-time), AND will be #1 on the NFL all time passing yards list early next year absent career ending injury would get a lot more respect. ..." 

 

Both of these comments were addressed to me, but neither has anything to do with what I said. Every single player, whether it be Tom Brady or Drew Brees, has strengths & weaknesses. How do you beat Drew Brees? The reason why a QB that's 6' 0" is at a disadvantage is because the bigger bodies in front of him can impede his vision. If that same QB has to throw over them, the trajectory of the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle) can be altered. We're not talking about the deeper zones or even perhaps the back end of the intermediate zone. Certainly not throws to the boundary or check downs, none of that. But routes over the middle, the DL can really factor.

 

Even at his advanced age, Brees can still scramble & effectively throw on the move. So up front you have to contain him. What's odd is that taking away his passing lanes, again, over the middle goes hand & hand with containing him. While you're doing one you're doing the other, that's part of how you defend him! I do agree that to this point of his career his stature hasn't made any difference, none whatsoever....

 

Another variable is how much punishment can an old, small guy take? This 1st one involves the 49ers Ahmad Brooks, an arm tackle across the upper chest. Yes, the head snaps forward & the neck makes contact with the forearm, but for me, this isn't an illegal hit.  "Folks, the human body is not suppose to be smacking concrete like that!" e; 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000283425/Ahmad-Brooks-strip-sack-reversed-for-illegal-contact  

 

This next one is the Bucs Adrian Clayborn, I see shoulder pad to shoulder pad, another limp call. This video is the full game, you have to scroll to 37:45, the hit occurs early 2nd quarter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrS1lD1Gkr0

 

Brees is leveled on both of these & the ball is out, he is not a guy that can withstand a heavy dose. But a big hit, instead of it being a sack & potential turnover, ends up being a penalty and a 1st down for New Orleans. The Vikings have to be overly disciplined as to how they caress this guy to the ground. They'll make a few plays, but my expectation is very low.  

 

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

 

Both of these comments were addressed to me, but neither has anything to do with what I said. Every single player, whether it be Tom Brady or Drew Brees, has strengths & weaknesses. How do you beat Drew Brees? The reason why a QB that's 6' 0" is at a disadvantage is because the bigger bodies in front of him can impede his vision. If that same QB has to throw over them, the trajectory of the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle) can be altered. We're not talking about the deeper zones or even perhaps the back end of the intermediate zone. Certainly not throws to the boundary or check downs, none of that. But routes over the middle, the DL can really factor.

 

Even at his advanced age, Brees can still scramble & effectively throw on the move. So up front you have to contain him. What's odd is that taking away his passing lanes, again, over the middle goes hand & hand with containing him. While you're doing one you're doing the other, that's part of how you defend him! I do agree that to this point of his career his stature hasn't made any difference, none whatsoever....

 

Another variable is how much punishment can an old, small guy take? This 1st one involves the 49ers Ahmad Brooks, an arm tackle across the upper chest. Yes, the head snaps forward & the neck makes contact with the forearm, but for me, this isn't an illegal hit.  "Folks, the human body is not suppose to be smacking concrete like that!" e; 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000283425/Ahmad-Brooks-strip-sack-reversed-for-illegal-contact  

 

This next one is the Bucs Adrian Clayborn, I see shoulder pad to shoulder pad, another limp call. This video is the full game, you have to scroll to 37:45, the hit occurs early 2nd quarter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrS1lD1Gkr0

 

Brees is leveled on both of these & the ball is out, he is not a guy that can withstand a heavy dose. But a big hit, instead of it being a sack & potential turnover, ends up being a penalty and a 1st down for New Orleans. The Vikings have to be overly disciplined as to how they caress this guy to the ground. They'll make a few plays, but my expectation is very low.  

 

 

Dude don't get me wrong I think the Vikes are going to give Brees all the business and he'll need to work his a** off to escape there with a win, no one is saying it's going to be a cakewalk or that he won't get beat up.  As for "old. small guy" he's 38 y.o. and 6'0" and 209,  so not hugely different than Case Keenum at 6'1" / 215 or Tom Brady who's 2 years older yet just won a Super Bowl last year.  And while I respect the general adage that a taller quarterback is better I'm arguing it's not 100% predictive.  Especially since in the case of Brees he seems to be above league average in the 'short' portion of your "the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle)" and almost exactly on league average for the 'intermediate' stuff. 

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_BRE229498_20

 

If anything your analysis should reflect that he's MUCH worse at throwing to the deep left than those "short to intermediate" routes.  So if you see Ted Ginn is lined up on the right you need to provide extra safety help over the top and not worry about Kamara or Michael Thomas in the slot or left .  Otherwise you might spend a long day seeing plays like this: 

 

ginn_and_tonic.0.gif

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I’m rooting for the Jags.

 

I used to be annoyed when the Steelers lost to inferior teams.

 

Now I just think it’s funny.

 

I had to change my mindset...

 

Titan’s win?  There’s not enough weed in Colorado to make me think that’s a possibility.

 

Saints.  I’m not betting against Brees.  Dude needs another RING.

 

Falcons.  Ryan found his mojo?  Belichick must have “borrowed” it...

Edited by seanismorris

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3 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

 

Both of these comments were addressed to me, but neither has anything to do with what I said. Every single player, whether it be Tom Brady or Drew Brees, has strengths & weaknesses. How do you beat Drew Brees? The reason why a QB that's 6' 0" is at a disadvantage is because the bigger bodies in front of him can impede his vision. If that same QB has to throw over them, the trajectory of the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle) can be altered. We're not talking about the deeper zones or even perhaps the back end of the intermediate zone. Certainly not throws to the boundary or check downs, none of that. But routes over the middle, the DL can really factor.

 

Even at his advanced age, Brees can still scramble & effectively throw on the move. So up front you have to contain him. What's odd is that taking away his passing lanes, again, over the middle goes hand & hand with containing him. While you're doing one you're doing the other, that's part of how you defend him! I do agree that to this point of his career his stature hasn't made any difference, none whatsoever....

 

Brees has been mastering his craft for over 15 years in the NFL with his small stature. He knows how to create passing lanes against any defense. That doesn't really concern me as much as it might have 10 years ago.

 

The stature argument is real though, just not for Brees. One of the many reasons shorter QBs struggle when coming into the NFL, like you have explained.

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1 hour ago, jumper said:

"As for "old. small guy" he's 38 y.o. and 6'0" and 209,  so not hugely different than Case Keenum at 6'1" / 215 or Tom Brady who's 2 years older yet just won a Super Bowl last year.  And while I respect the general adage that a taller quarterback is better I'm arguing it's not 100% predictive.  Especially since in the case of Brees he seems to be above league average in the 'short' portion of your "the short to intermediate stuff (just outside the hash marks into the middle)" and almost exactly on league average for the 'intermediate' stuff. ..."

 

Again, the argument isn't whether or not Brees can make all the throws or is proficient in the short to intermediate zones.... it's how he's defended. Even there, my argument isn't any or every area of the field,  just the short-intermediate middle. When everybody up front is 6'4", 6'5" and he's looking for a receiver over the middle, he's forced to look around them. Unless of course, he's afforded a passing lane or window! The very play you source, he's stepping into one of those windows to throw in. It's a deep ball so it's not what we're talking about, the key is the window! Take away those windows and make it difficult for him see his receivers & defenders. As for Case Keenum,  he's a journeyman with a pedestrian career, whereas Brees is this prolific passer, future HOF inductee. Hardly comparable.  

Edited by markrc99

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35 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

 

Again, the argument isn't whether or not Brees can make all the throws or is proficient in the short to intermediate zones.... it's how he's defended. Even there, my argument isn't any or every area of the field,  just the short-intermediate middle. When everybody up front is 6'4", 6'5" and he's looking for a receiver over the middle, he's forced to look around them. Unless of course, he's afforded a passing lane or window! The very play you source, he's stepping into one of those windows to throw in. It's a deep ball so it's not what we're talking about, the key is the window! Take away those windows and make it difficult for him see his receivers & defenders. As for Case Keenum,  he's a journeyman with a pedestrian career, whereas Brees is this prolific passer, future HOF inductee. Hardly comparable.  

 

Your argument is flawed, even if the front line is 6'4-6'6 they don't play at that height 100% of the time.  I would argue that the only time they are actually standing straight up is when the offensive lineman has stopped them completely and all they can do is look to bat a ball down.  Also, If you watch Bree's he stands on his toes a ton especially when he is about to throw.  I don't think this is going to be as big of an issue as you are making it out to be. 

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18 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

ill tell you what after hearing a lot of talking heads out there.....Eagles should just send their captains out to midfield, leave everyone else in the locker room and just wave a white flag at the coin toss and call it a day.

The Eagles DEF outlined the blueprint for beating this team at their peak last year - play keepaway and shut down the run. 

 

As worried as people are about Foles, my primary concern is the Ajayi effort.  This is a game built for him to win or lose IMO.  

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New England - 38
Tennessee - 13

Atlanta - 27

Philly - 24

Pittsburgh - 27
Jacksonville - 9

New Orleans - 25
Minnesota - 16

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On 1/9/2018 at 12:20 AM, murraygd13 said:

AFC: NE, PIT

NFC: ATL, MIN

 

NE:  game could be over before half, just don't see how the Titans keep it close.  41-10

PIT: should be a closer game but think PIT wins, Bortles on the road..just don't see it 20-13

ATL: With Wentz obviously a different story, think this game could end up high scoring 34-27

MIN: Game of the weekend here, interesting matchup.  Think Keenum does just enough to win 20-16

 


Overall love the assessment. I'm on the same page with slightly different outcomes. I'm going NO simply because I think Ingram/Kamara/Brees/Thomas find a way to get it done against one of the best defenses in the league.
 

4 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

New England - 38
Tennessee - 13

Atlanta - 27

Philly - 24

Pittsburgh - 27
Jacksonville - 9

New Orleans - 25
Minnesota - 16

 

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