Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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Tyreek Hill had quite a 2017. In his first year as the #1 WR for KC, Hill had the following achievements across 15 games (DNP in Week 17, as KC rested starters):

--75 catches (tied for 11th amongst WR's)

--1183 receiving yards (7th in the NFL)

--8 total TD's (7 receiving and 1 via punt return; the 8 TD's were tied for 7th in the NFL)

--59 rush yards & 204 punt return yards

 

What did that lead to fantasy-wise, prior to sitting out Week 17?

--#3 overall WR in .25 point PPR format (finished as #4 including Week 17)

--#4 overall WR in 1 point PPR format (finished as #8 including Week 17)
(the .25 point PPR format also grants 1 point for every 30 return yards, and gives a 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving game)
(the 1 point PPR format has no points for return yardage, 1 bonus point at 100 yards, 1.5 points at 150 yards, 2 points at 200 yards, and 1 point for 40+ yard receptions)

 

Despite this outstanding season, it seems some people continue to underrate Hill. Headed into the fantasy championship Week 16, I still saw people asking if they should start him or not. Many commenters on this forum continue to say that he's too inconsistent and too boom or bust for their tastes. So I figured let's take a crack to dispel the myths, as we look towards what 2018 holds for Hill. I looked at Hill's game-by-game totals, as well as every Top 35 WR, and here are some of the findings...

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is a one-trick pony. He's got great speed but that's it. 

REALITY: False. Hill is far from a one-trick pony. In 2017, Hill finished 7th in catch percentage amongst all WR's, at 71%, making 75 catches on 105 targets. And guess what? Hill was 7th in WR catch percentage in 2016, at 71%. On top of that, Hill is one of only 4 players to reach 70% in both 2016 & 2017 (M.Thomas, Sanu & Cobb are the others). Lastly, Hill finished the regular season within the top 10 of PFF's WR rankings as well. 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 1. He's no good in home games and flip-flops good with bad. 
REALITY: False. The Chiefs alternated away and home games for their first 9 games. And it's true that through 8 weeks, he alternated good games (the away games) with bad games (the home games), as all 4 of his duds (more on duds below) came at home in the first 8 weeks. Because of that, some people thought they had Hill figured out, pegging him as inconsistent. But after the Week 10 bye, he got double-digits FP's (1 point format)  in all 4 of his home games...plus their home playoff game too. On top of all that, in 2016, Hill scored a TD in 9 games, and 5 of the 9 were home games. Going back to 2017, I started tracking where Hill ranked in total WR points from Week 7 and on. He was as high as 2nd and never dropped below 4th...across the final 10 weeks of the standard fantasy season
 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 2. It's boom or bust with him.

REALITY: False. Hill rarely had busts in 2017. Across both scoring formats mentioned above, he only had 4 dud games. What do I classify as a dud? Less than 5 points in the .25 point format, and less than 10 points in the 1 point format. He never had back-to-back duds. How many other WR's across the top 35 had less dud games? 6 WR's (Hopkins, A.Brown, M.Thomas, Julio all had 3 or less duds, and in the full 1 point format, Landry & K.Allen had less than 4 - though they did have 4 in the .25 point format). So on an avoidance-of-duds basis, Hill was either the 5th or 7th best WR.

MYTH: Tyreek Hill gets all his FP's in one big game. He doesn't help you win that many individual weekly matchups. 

REALITY: False. Hill was actually one of the best WR's in putting up stud games. What do I classify as a stud? 10 or more points in the .25 point format, and 15 or more points in the 1 point format. Hill had 8 stud games in the .25 point format, and 9 stud games in the 1 point format. How many other WR's across the top 35 had more stud games? 2 or 3 WR's, depending on format (Hopkins had 12/11, A.Brown had 9 across both formats, and Landry had 11 in the 1 point format, and 7 in the .25 format). Now Hill's highs during those stud games were much higher than Landry's, so we can safely say that on a stud performance basis, Hill was the 3rd best WR.

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill was the best fantasy WR across the final 4 weeks of the standard fantasy season (Weeks 13--16).

REALITY: True. Hill was the best WR at the most important time of the fantasy season. With fantasy owners fighting for playoff berths, playoff seeding, a potential bye week, and the playoffs themselves, Hill went off for 94.10 FP's (1 point PPR format). In Week 13, he had 42 FP's, Week 14 he had 12.50 FP's, Week 15 he had 20.80 FP's, and Week 16 he had 18.80 FP's. So across the final quarter of the fantasy season, Hill was the best WR in the game

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill can't put up two huge fantasy seasons like this in a row.

REALITY: False. Hill ALREADY HAS put up two fantasy seasons like this in a row. As discussed above, he was the #3 WR through Week 16 in the .25 point format that also incorporates return yardage. And in that same format, he was the #4 WR in 2016. I suppose if you don't count return yardage in your league, the 2016 stat may not be as impressive to you. But think about this...how many WR's finished in the top 5 across 2016 and 2017? 2 WR's...Hill and A.Brown (who was #1 both seasons). If you stretch to Top 10 seasons, then you can add Julio to the mix. And if you look at 2015 & 2016, Odell was 5th across both seasons. So it's pretty rare these days, to see a WR put up back-to-back Top 10 seasons (let alone back-to-back Top 5). The only players who have achieved that within 2015--2017 are Brown, Odell, Julio and our title subject, Tyreek Hill

 

When you look at everything in total, I have no doubt in my mind that Tyreek Hill was the 3rd best fantasy WR in 2017 (behind only Brown and Hopkins). Does that mean he is a lock to do that again in 2018? Of course not. We still don't know for sure who the KC QB will be...will Alex Smith be let go and Pat Mahomes take over? Who will KC's offensive coordinator be? What other personnel changes will happen in the offseason? These questions all need to be answered. But as many people are interested in getting offseason rankings together and getting an early start on 2018 roster preparation, I thought it would be a good idea to put this info out about Hill sooner rather than later. 

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I appreciate the write up - a lot of good stuff!  I think a lot of people saw Hill's rookie year as a big play guy who got a lot of special teams TDs, and it wouldn't be sustainable into 2017.  And I think in 2017 Hill proved to people that he can be a legit WR and difference maker in this league.  I would absolutely feel confident with Hill as my WR1 for next season if I take RB with my first pick.  I think it's all but given the Chiefs turn to Mahomes next year, which I also imagine will help open up the offense.  Alex Smith did a great job this year of pushing the ball downfield, something we had not previously seen.  However, the arm talent from Mahomes is second to none, and I think the switch to Mahomes will provide monster years for both Hill and Travis Kelce.  

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55 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I appreciate the write up - a lot of good stuff!  I think a lot of people saw Hill's rookie year as a big play guy who got a lot of special teams TDs, and it wouldn't be sustainable into 2017.  And I think in 2017 Hill proved to people that he can be a legit WR and difference maker in this league.  I would absolutely feel confident with Hill as my WR1 for next season if I take RB with my first pick.  I think it's all but given the Chiefs turn to Mahomes next year, which I also imagine will help open up the offense.  Alex Smith did a great job this year of pushing the ball downfield, something we had not previously seen.  However, the arm talent from Mahomes is second to none, and I think the switch to Mahomes will provide monster years for both Hill and Travis Kelce.  

 

Thanks, I appreciate that! I agree that Mahomes could end up meaning very good things for Hill (and Kelce). With his arm and Hill's ability to break long plays (he led the league in 40+ yard catches), it's a very interesting combo. The potential downside is that Mahomes is untested and who knows for sure how he'll perform. But hopefully he'll develop a good chemistry with Hill in offseason drills/preseason. If reports on Mahomes are positive, I believe Hill can be a top 5 WR for a third straight season. 

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Quick fun fact towards Hill's big-play ability...he led the NFL with the most 40+ yard catches in 2017, with 9. 

Question: How many WR's have had as many as 9 40+ yard catches across the past 5 seasons?

Answer: 4 WR's (Hill with 9 in 2017, DeSean Jackson with 13 in 2014, Josh Gordon & AJ Green with 9 in 2013).

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Posted (edited)

The guy is a playmaker, but it's unproven whether or not he can make plays consistently as an outside receiver running a traditional route tree. He's an ace on shallow crosses, go routes, comebacks, and gadget plays, but can he make the plays down the sideline in 1 on 1 coverage against taller corners? That will make the difference between getting 75 and 90 catches. 

Edited by P@ckersFan

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I was wrong about him this year but that being said he is still a DND for me next year if his ADP is around where most of us expect it to be.

 

He's largely dependant on big plays plus Smiths season was an anomaly. He is boom or bust in a sense that often times if one play doesn't go his way it's a dud. Now of course, you can say that for basically any WR in the NFL but Tyreke is that to the extreme. 

 

I'd take him as my 3rd pick but he will settle in around the 2nd round in the end.

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16 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I was wrong about him this year but that being said he is still a DND for me next year if his ADP is around where most of us expect it to be.

 

He's largely dependant on big plays plus Smiths season was an anomaly. He is boom or bust in a sense that often times if one play doesn't go his way it's a dud. Now of course, you can say that for basically any WR in the NFL but Tyreke is that to the extreme. 

 

I'd take him as my 3rd pick but he will settle in around the 2nd round in the end.

I’d also take him as my 2nd or 3rd (preferred) draft pick.  I think he’s going to be more reliable than you think.  The team needs to be more creative getting the ball in his hands... he’s more than just a field stretcher.

 

Hill is a spread guy rather than a physically dominant WR1 (in the mold of Julio, Evans, Green) but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a consistent WR1.  Having a monster/athletic TE like Kelce helps him.

 

Between Hill, Hunt, Kelce KC has one of the most talented offenses in the league.  Alex Smith leaving might help them.  The problem is Reid is a defense first guy, he needs to adapt and I don’t know if he can...

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I'll need to wait until my schedule opens up but Hill was interesting this year as I remember him working a lot of traditional WR routes and making a ton of contested grabs since Smith would under throw him 75% of the time. I'm going to review his season and will post in the Spring most likely. I'll focus more on his route running and play calls. I may be crazy but dude reminds me of less refined AB .. 

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I thought he was going to be another Brandin Cooks type and I was wrong, he is ahead of Cooks now

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Imagine if this guy got more consistent looks in the passing game and had a QB with a stronger arm. Oh wait....lol...2018 is looking extremely promising. Fun to watch, game changing talent and a scary ceiling. 

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Make of this what you will as far as Tyreek goes...

 

Tyreek Hill has played 2 seasons. I did a check on current and somewhat-recently retired WR's, who had a significant role during their first 2 seasons. How often in their first 2 seasons did the WR either A.) score a touchdown or B.) tally 100 yards receiving? A game in which a player had a TD and 100 yards only counts once (no double-counting). Here are the results...
 

(26 active players in blue; 14 retired players in red)
 

1. Odell Beckham: in 20 of first 27 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (74.1%)

2. AJ Green: in 22 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (68.8%)

3. Randy Moss: in 21 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (65.6%)

4. Marques Colston: in 18 of first 30 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (60.0%)

5. Allen Robinson: in 15 of first 26 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (57.7%)

6. Larry Fitzgerald: in 18 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (56.3%)

7. Julio Jones: in 16 of first 29 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (55.2%)

*******8t. Tyreek Hill: in 17 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (54.8%)*******

8t. Calvin Johnson: in 17 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (54.8%)

10. Mike Evans: in 16 of first 30 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (53.3%)

11t. Dez Bryant: in 14 of first 27 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (51.9%)

11t: Hakeem Nicks: in 14 of first 27 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (51.9%) 

13. Percy Harvin: in 15 of first 29 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (51.7%)

14. DeSean Jackson: in 16 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (51.6%)

15. Torry Holt: in 16 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (50.0%)

16. Sammy Watkins: in 14 of first 29 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (48.3%)

17. Greg Jennings: in 13 of first 27 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (48.1%)

18. Mike Wallace: in 15 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (46.9%) 

19. Michael Thomas: in 14 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (45.2%)

20t. Amari Cooper: in 14 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (43.8%)

20t. Dwayne Bowe: in 14 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (43.8%) 

22. Josh Gordon: in 13 of first 30 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (43.3%)

23. Keenan Allen: in 12 of first 29 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (41.4%)

24. Darrell Jackson: in 13 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (40.6%)

25. TY Hilton: in 12 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (38.7%)

26t. Marvin Harrison: in 12 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (37.5%)

26t. Torrey Smith: in 12 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (37.5%)

28. Jeremy Maclin: in 11 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (35.5%)

29. Stefon Diggs: in 9 of first 26 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (34.6%)

30. Brandin Cooks: in 10 of first 29 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (34.5%)

31t. Andre Johnson: in 11 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (34.4%)

31t. Lee Evans: in 11 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (34.4%)

33. Terrell Owens: in 10 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (31.3%)

34. Anquan Boldin: in 8 of first 26 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (30.8%)

35. DeVante Parker: in 9 of first 30 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (30.0%)

36. Michael Crabtree: in 8 of first 27 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (29.6%)

37t. DeAndre Hopkins: in 9 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (28.1%)

37t. Jarvis Landry: in 9 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (28.1%)

39. Kenny Stills: in 7 of first 31 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (22.6%)

40. Ted Ginn: in 7 of first 32 games did he score a TD or gain 100 yards (21.9%)

Edited by Corleone

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Same 40 WR's as listed above in the last post; here are catch percentages across their first 2 seasons:
 

(26 active players in blue; 14 retired players in red)
 

1. Michael Thomas: 72.6%

*******2. Tyreek Hill: 72.3%*******

3. Kenny Stills: 71.4%

4. Jarvis Landry: 69.8%

5. Stefon Diggs: 69.4%

6. Brandin Cooks: 69.2%

7t. Keenan Allen: 65.5%

7t. Percy Harvin: 65.5%

9. Marques Colston: 65.1%

10. Odell Beckham: 64.9%

11: Hakeem Nicks: 62.4%

12. Dez Bryant: 61.4%

13. Jeremy Maclin: 61.2%

14. DeVante Parker: 59.9%

15. Julio Jones: 59.6%

16. Amari Cooper: 59.2%

17. Terrell Owens: 59.0%

18. DeAndre Hopkins: 58.7%

19. Anquan Boldin: 58.4%

20. Marvin Harrison: 58.3%

21. Mike Wallace: 58.2%

22. AJ Green: 58.1%

23. Lee Evans: 57.8%

24. TY Hilton: 57.6%

25. Larry Fitzgerald: 57.5%

26t. Randy Moss: 57.1%

26t. Dwayne Bowe: 57.1%

28. Torry Holt: 56.8%

29. Andre Johnson: 56.4%

30. Sammy Watkins: 55.8%

31. Allen Robinson: 55.2%

32. Michael Crabtree: 55.1%

33. Ted Ginn: 54.9%

34. Darrell Jackson: 54.7%

35. Josh Gordon: 53.7%

36. Mike Evans: 52.6%

37. DeSean Jackson: 52.3%

38. Greg Jennings: 52.1%

39. Calvin Johnson: 51.9%

40. Torrey Smith: 48.3%

 

So for these 40 WR's, who had significant roles in their first 2 NFL seasons, Tyreek Hill is one of just 3 to finish in the Top 10 across both catch percentage and touchdown/100 yard game percentage (the other two in the Top 10 for both categories are Odell Beckham and Marques Colston).

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New analysis from PFF today...
 

TYREEK HILL, WR, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

If you’re like me, you had no idea just how good Hill was this season. Sure, he was a WR1 by all accounts with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven scores, but only once you look beyond the raw numbers do you really appreciate how efficient Hill was this season. For starters, he had the best deep-pass catch rate, hauling in over half of his 24 deep (20-plus air yards) targets. That level of efficiency no doubt helped him finish sixth in yards per route-run at 2.35 (min. 80 targets) despite finishing 61st out of 120 qualifying receivers in average depth of target at just 11.8 yards.

Verdict: Buy. Hill would already be considered a hot dynasty commodity this offseason but count me among the people that is more excited if the Chiefs follow through with their quarterback transition to Patrick Mahomes. By all accounts, Mahomes has a bigger arm than incumbent Alex Smith, which means more of those deep targets for Hill to capitalize on. Furthermore, Mahomes had the seventh-best adjusted completion percentage in college his last season, which should help alleviate any concerns about a significant increase in turnovers from the Kansas City offense. Hill will be just 24 next season and has a clear path to targets despite the presence of Pro Bowlers Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. His stock is already high but could go even higher.

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On 1/9/2018 at 1:24 PM, nonstopfan said:

Imagine if this guy got more consistent looks in the passing game and had a QB with a stronger arm. Oh wait....lol...2018 is looking extremely promising. Fun to watch, game changing talent and a scary ceiling. 

 

I think Hill falls off quite a bit when Smith leaves. 

 

Everyone was so pumped for Pryor to leave Cleveland last year and it looked like a bad fit for me. 

 

Although different players in different situations I see similar here. 

 

Mahomes won't be accurate IMO. He does throw a lot of short stuff though like bubble screens that I think Hill is used to. But I don't expect nearly the same level of downfield accuracy. 

 

Alex Smith is extremely underrated when it comes to accuracy downfield and not turning it over. 

 

Mahomes should be the exact opposite. 

 

That could cause the Chiefs to chronically play from behind though and end up increasing his targets about 60+. If that happens this will be a wash, however if  targets remain similar I expect sizeable drop off for Hill. 

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On 1/9/2018 at 7:45 AM, Corleone said:

Tyreek Hill had quite a 2017. In his first year as the #1 WR for KC, Hill had the following achievements across 15 games (DNP in Week 17, as KC rested starters):

--75 catches (tied for 11th amongst WR's)

--1183 receiving yards (7th in the NFL)

--8 total TD's (7 receiving and 1 via punt return; the 8 TD's were tied for 7th in the NFL)

--59 rush yards & 204 punt return yards

 

What did that lead to fantasy-wise, prior to sitting out Week 17?

--#3 overall WR in .25 point PPR format (finished as #4 including Week 17)

--#4 overall WR in 1 point PPR format (finished as #8 including Week 17)
(the .25 point PPR format also grants 1 point for every 30 return yards, and gives a 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving game)
(the 1 point PPR format has no points for return yardage, 1 bonus point at 100 yards, 1.5 points at 150 yards, 2 points at 200 yards, and 1 point for 40+ yard receptions)

 

Despite this outstanding season, it seems some people continue to underrate Hill. Headed into the fantasy championship Week 16, I still saw people asking if they should start him or not. Many commenters on this forum continue to say that he's too inconsistent and too boom or bust for their tastes. So I figured let's take a crack to dispel the myths, as we look towards what 2018 holds for Hill. I looked at Hill's game-by-game totals, as well as every Top 35 WR, and here are some of the findings...

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is a one-trick pony. He's got great speed but that's it. 

REALITY: False. Hill is far from a one-trick pony. In 2017, Hill finished 7th in catch percentage amongst all WR's, at 71%, making 75 catches on 105 targets. And guess what? Hill was 7th in WR catch percentage in 2016, at 71%. On top of that, Hill is one of only 4 players to reach 70% in both 2016 & 2017 (M.Thomas, Sanu & Cobb are the others). Lastly, Hill finished the regular season within the top 10 of PFF's WR rankings as well. 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 1. He's no good in home games and flip-flops good with bad. 
REALITY: False. The Chiefs alternated away and home games for their first 9 games. And it's true that through 8 weeks, he alternated good games (the away games) with bad games (the home games), as all 4 of his duds (more on duds below) came at home in the first 8 weeks. Because of that, some people thought they had Hill figured out, pegging him as inconsistent. But after the Week 10 bye, he got double-digits FP's (1 point format)  in all 4 of his home games...plus their home playoff game too. On top of all that, in 2016, Hill scored a TD in 9 games, and 5 of the 9 were home games. Going back to 2017, I started tracking where Hill ranked in total WR points from Week 7 and on. He was as high as 2nd and never dropped below 4th...across the final 10 weeks of the standard fantasy season
 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 2. It's boom or bust with him.

REALITY: False. Hill rarely had busts in 2017. Across both scoring formats mentioned above, he only had 4 dud games. What do I classify as a dud? Less than 5 points in the .25 point format, and less than 10 points in the 1 point format. He never had back-to-back duds. How many other WR's across the top 35 had less dud games? 6 WR's (Hopkins, A.Brown, M.Thomas, Julio all had 3 or less duds, and in the full 1 point format, Landry & K.Allen had less than 4 - though they did have 4 in the .25 point format). So on an avoidance-of-duds basis, Hill was either the 5th or 7th best WR.

MYTH: Tyreek Hill gets all his FP's in one big game. He doesn't help you win that many individual weekly matchups. 

REALITY: False. Hill was actually one of the best WR's in putting up stud games. What do I classify as a stud? 10 or more points in the .25 point format, and 15 or more points in the 1 point format. Hill had 8 stud games in the .25 point format, and 9 stud games in the 1 point format. How many other WR's across the top 35 had more stud games? 2 or 3 WR's, depending on format (Hopkins had 12/11, A.Brown had 9 across both formats, and Landry had 11 in the 1 point format, and 7 in the .25 format). Now Hill's highs during those stud games were much higher than Landry's, so we can safely say that on a stud performance basis, Hill was the 3rd best WR.

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill was the best fantasy WR across the final 4 weeks of the standard fantasy season (Weeks 13--16).

REALITY: True. Hill was the best WR at the most important time of the fantasy season. With fantasy owners fighting for playoff berths, playoff seeding, a potential bye week, and the playoffs themselves, Hill went off for 94.10 FP's (1 point PPR format). In Week 13, he had 42 FP's, Week 14 he had 12.50 FP's, Week 15 he had 20.80 FP's, and Week 16 he had 18.80 FP's. So across the final quarter of the fantasy season, Hill was the best WR in the game

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill can't put up two huge fantasy seasons like this in a row.

REALITY: False. Hill ALREADY HAS put up two fantasy seasons like this in a row. As discussed above, he was the #3 WR through Week 16 in the .25 point format that also incorporates return yardage. And in that same format, he was the #4 WR in 2016. I suppose if you don't count return yardage in your league, the 2016 stat may not be as impressive to you. But think about this...how many WR's finished in the top 5 across 2016 and 2017? 2 WR's...Hill and A.Brown (who was #1 both seasons). If you stretch to Top 10 seasons, then you can add Julio to the mix. And if you look at 2015 & 2016, Odell was 5th across both seasons. So it's pretty rare these days, to see a WR put up back-to-back Top 10 seasons (let alone back-to-back Top 5). The only players who have achieved that within 2015--2017 are Brown, Odell, Julio and our title subject, Tyreek Hill

 

When you look at everything in total, I have no doubt in my mind that Tyreek Hill was the 3rd best fantasy WR in 2017 (behind only Brown and Hopkins). Does that mean he is a lock to do that again in 2018? Of course not. We still don't know for sure who the KC QB will be...will Alex Smith be let go and Pat Mahomes take over? Who will KC's offensive coordinator be? What other personnel changes will happen in the offseason? These questions all need to be answered. But as many people are interested in getting offseason rankings together and getting an early start on 2018 roster preparation, I thought it would be a good idea to put this info out about Hill sooner rather than later. 

 

A budding ffCollusion.

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5 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I think Hill falls off quite a bit when Smith leaves. 

 

Everyone was so pumped for Pryor to leave Cleveland last year and it looked like a bad fit for me. 

 

Although different players in different situations I see similar here. 

 

Mahomes won't be accurate IMO. He does throw a lot of short stuff though like bubble screens that I think Hill is used to. But I don't expect nearly the same level of downfield accuracy. 

 

Alex Smith is extremely underrated when it comes to accuracy downfield and not turning it over. 

 

Mahomes should be the exact opposite. 

 

That could cause the Chiefs to chronically play from behind though and end up increasing his targets about 60+. If that happens this will be a wash, however if  targets remain similar I expect sizeable drop off for Hill. 

 

He may not be as accurate as Smith downfield, but he’s a lot more likely to take increased shots to an open Hill rather than the two yard dump off on third and four that Smith liked so much.

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6 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I think Hill falls off quite a bit when Smith leaves. 

 

Everyone was so pumped for Pryor to leave Cleveland last year and it looked like a bad fit for me. 

 

Although different players in different situations I see similar here. 

 

Mahomes won't be accurate IMO. He does throw a lot of short stuff though like bubble screens that I think Hill is used to. But I don't expect nearly the same level of downfield accuracy. 

 

Alex Smith is extremely underrated when it comes to accuracy downfield and not turning it over. 

 

Mahomes should be the exact opposite. 

 

That could cause the Chiefs to chronically play from behind though and end up increasing his targets about 60+. If that happens this will be a wash, however if  targets remain similar I expect sizeable drop off for Hill. 

 

1 hour ago, petekrum said:

 

He may not be as accurate as Smith downfield, but he’s a lot more likely to take increased shots to an open Hill rather than the two yard dump off on third and four that Smith liked so much.

 

I agree with Pete, in terms of the possibility for Mahomes to give increased shots to Hill downfield. My understanding of Mahomes is that he likes to throw the deep ball, and is a gunslinger along the lines of Brett Favre & Jay Cutler (hopefully he's closer to Favre, though Cutler got some big fantasy seasons out of WR's in his prime too). 

Towards Smith's downfield accuracy, he was fantastic in 2017. But what interests me is that 2017 was a complete outlier in terms of him throwing the deep ball. Here are his career stats for every season in which he's started at least 10 games, for passes thrown 21 or more yards downfield...

 

--2007 w/SF: 14 for 49 (28.6%) - 1 TD - 2 INT - 544 yards

--2009 w/SF: 15 for 34 (44.1%) - 6 TD - 3 INT - 527 yards

--2010 w/SF: 8 for 29 (27.6%) - 1 TD - 2 INT - 279 yards

--2011 w/SF: 13 for 36 (36.1%) - 3 TD - 1 INT - 457 yards

--2012 w/SF: 8 for 17 (47.1%) - 3 TD - 1 INT - 273 yards

--2013 w/KC: 10 for 36 (27.8%) - 3 TD - 0 INT - 309 yards

--2014 w/KC: 3 for 18 (16.7%) - 0 TD - 2 INT - 114 yards

--2015 w/KC: 10 for 32 (31.3%) - 2 TD - 1 INT - 311 yards

--2016 w/KC: 12 for 40 (30.0%) - 2 TD - 2 INT - 427 yards

--2017 w/KC: 27 for 56 (48.2%) - 11 TD - 0 INT - 1179 yards

 

So 2017 was easily Smith's best season throwing deep. We all knew Smith had been pretty reluctant to throw the deep ball in the past. But it's not like when he did throw deep, he was great at it and simply was afraid to take chances. In the 9 seasons above, prior to 2017, Smith had a combined 21 TD's & 14 INT's. Some downright awful numbers across complete individual seasons. And then in 2017 throwing deep, he had 11 TD's & 0 INT's. 

 

What did Smith have on the field in 2017, that he didn't have in the past? Tyreek Hill serving as his #1 wide receiver.
Of Smith's 27 deep pass completions, 13 went to Hill, for 6 TD's and 628 yards.

Overall, I think between knowing he had Mahomes waiting to take his job AND having Tyreek Hill, Smith was able to come up with an out-of-nowhere season in terms of deep passes. Switching back to the 2018 outlook, having a QB that wants to take deep shots and has the deep threat there, there's potential for another huge Tyreek season. 

 

Edited by Corleone

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8 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I think Hill falls off quite a bit when Smith leaves. 

 

Everyone was so pumped for Pryor to leave Cleveland last year and it looked like a bad fit for me. 

 

Although different players in different situations I see similar here. 

 

Mahomes won't be accurate IMO. He does throw a lot of short stuff though like bubble screens that I think Hill is used to. But I don't expect nearly the same level of downfield accuracy. 

 

Alex Smith is extremely underrated when it comes to accuracy downfield and not turning it over. 

 

Mahomes should be the exact opposite. 

 

That could cause the Chiefs to chronically play from behind though and end up increasing his targets about 60+. If that happens this will be a wash, however if  targets remain similar I expect sizeable drop off for Hill. 

 

I agree with this.  I am more risk adverse when it comes to drafting, especially with my top 3-4 picks.  The guy is obviously talented but a change at quarterback and OC hits the top of the charts on the riskometer for me. 

 

I haven't done a ton of homework on Mahomes but from the games I did watch he looked good throwing against Big 12 defenses... if those even exist.  Not saying he won't be successful but I don't see him putting up passing numbers anywhere near what Smith did this year.

 

With that being said and with the OC ? still unknown, at this point I wouldn't take him before round 4. 

 

I could see the chiefs relying heavily on the run next season, with Ware coming back and using him and Hunt as a two headed monster.  A lot of short passes, screeens and bubble screens to set up the run and not put to much pressure on Mahomes.  When and if he does throw down field I see them rolling him out and moving the pocket a lot and on those plays I could see a lot of deep shots to Tyreek.... But I think he will tuck and run more than Smith did and that will hurt Mr. Hill.  On the flipside I like Kelce more next season than this season as long as Mahomes looks to him in the redzone like Smith did.

 

All in all I think he is very talented but wont be on any of my rosters next year due to the unknown of his situation.  He has the ability to break off big plays I just have no idea how defenses will respect Mahomes.

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Can I feature the entire OP in a blog post w/ credit given? @Corleone

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10 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

Can I feature the entire OP in a blog post w/ credit given? @Corleone

 

As long as the blog post isn't to say that picking Hill is the worst idea ever but there are some people who think he's a good pick, sure, that'd be fine by me (and feel free to share the link as well) :) 

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

As long as the blog post isn't to say that picking Hill is the worst idea ever but there are some people who think he's a good pick, sure, that'd be fine by me (and feel free to share the link as well) :) 

 

TyreekHillsCleats?

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Will be interesting to see his ADP, I'd look at him in the third round, but then I'd rather have Kelce around the same ADP if he's available due to positional scarcity.

Edited by LongBalls

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Assuming its Mahomes in 2018, the key is what they can do outside of the flashy deep balls.     Tyreek got at least 6 targets every game last year.   Provided that keeps up, and they can hit the home runs just as often, Tyreek pays off.      KC doesn't have a first round pick, and is over the cap right now, so its unlikely that they'll be able to add a strong WR opposite him this spring.     I'm personally comfortable with him as a back end WR1, after the obvious perennial stud WR's are gone.   Top 25 pick for me.   There's as much reason to think he improves as there is to think he declines in 2018.    

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On 1/10/2018 at 10:43 AM, Corleone said:

Same 40 WR's as listed above in the last post; here are catch percentages across their first 2 seasons:
 

(26 active players in blue; 14 retired players in red)
 

1. Michael Thomas: 72.6%

*******2. Tyreek Hill: 72.3%*******

3. Kenny Stills: 71.4%

4. Jarvis Landry: 69.8%

5. Stefon Diggs: 69.4%

6. Brandin Cooks: 69.2%

7t. Keenan Allen: 65.5%

7t. Percy Harvin: 65.5%

9. Marques Colston: 65.1%

10. Odell Beckham: 64.9%

11: Hakeem Nicks: 62.4%

12. Dez Bryant: 61.4%

13. Jeremy Maclin: 61.2%

14. DeVante Parker: 59.9%

15. Julio Jones: 59.6%

16. Amari Cooper: 59.2%

17. Terrell Owens: 59.0%

18. DeAndre Hopkins: 58.7%

19. Anquan Boldin: 58.4%

20. Marvin Harrison: 58.3%

21. Mike Wallace: 58.2%

22. AJ Green: 58.1%

23. Lee Evans: 57.8%

24. TY Hilton: 57.6%

25. Larry Fitzgerald: 57.5%

26t. Randy Moss: 57.1%

26t. Dwayne Bowe: 57.1%

28. Torry Holt: 56.8%

29. Andre Johnson: 56.4%

30. Sammy Watkins: 55.8%

31. Allen Robinson: 55.2%

32. Michael Crabtree: 55.1%

33. Ted Ginn: 54.9%

34. Darrell Jackson: 54.7%

35. Josh Gordon: 53.7%

36. Mike Evans: 52.6%

37. DeSean Jackson: 52.3%

38. Greg Jennings: 52.1%

39. Calvin Johnson: 51.9%

40. Torrey Smith: 48.3%

 

So for these 40 WR's, who had significant roles in their first 2 NFL seasons, Tyreek Hill is one of just 3 to finish in the Top 10 across both catch percentage and touchdown/100 yard game percentage (the other two in the Top 10 for both categories are Odell Beckham and Marques Colston).

16. Amari Cooper: 59.2%

17. Terrell Owens: 59.0%

18. DeAndre Hopkins: 58.7%

19. Anquan Boldin: 58.4%

20. Marvin Harrison: 58.3%

 

Very interesting.

 

Thanks for posting.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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27 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

16. Amari Cooper: 59.2%

17. Terrell Owens: 59.0%

18. DeAndre Hopkins: 58.7%

19. Anquan Boldin: 58.4%

20. Marvin Harrison: 58.3%

 

Very interesting.

 

Thanks for posting.

 

Amari was lucky that Year 3 stats weren't part of this analysis (since Tyreek has only played 2 seasons), as Amari's stats would drop quite a bit after 2017's 50.0% catch percentage. 

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