Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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31 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

However it is the strength of schedule based on last year’s statistics. The NFL can change a lot in one off season. Case on point the Seahawks. Plus, the Chiefs can beat you in so many ways offensively that their opponents can’t sell out on any aspect of their offense. With a great offense the advantage more often goes to the high powered offense. I’m not putting much into SOS for this team. 

Preseason SoS has a slight negative correlation with actual SoS results at the end of the year, as I've already posted elsewhere. So thank you, SoS is useless right now.

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1 hour ago, AirForceOne said:

 

 

Similar situation here... My cool story bro:  I went RB heavy in my dynasty draft, and then flipped Fournette for Tyreek plus a 2019 1st. 

 

 

Let's not mistake Watkins for a stud WR. *When he's been on the field (big bold asterisk there) operating as the clear #1 in Buffalo (ie very little competition for targets) he had his best season. I don't doubt Watkins has the talent to put up a few big games in KC, but it's looking like he's going to be the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game. 

 

That's a great deal for you IMO, and I agree with your take on Watkins as well. 

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As far as Tyreek's perceived difficult strength of schedule, this is what happened the last time he faced the NFL's best CB in Casey Hayward from the Chargers, during Week 15 of the 2017 season...

 

 

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

However it is the strength of schedule based on last year’s statistics. The NFL can change a lot in one off season. Case on point the Seahawks. Plus, the Chiefs can beat you in so many ways offensively that their opponents can’t sell out on any aspect of their offense. With a great offense the advantage more often goes to the high powered offense. I’m not putting much into SOS for this team. 

 

>a great offense

>Mahomes 1 career start

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

If she’s on these forums I would like to meet her :wub:

 

She looks familiar but I can't think of her name...

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Monster. Mahomes and TyFreak are a match made in heaven. This year is going to be so fun.

 

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26 minutes ago, pjbyrne707 said:

lock for top 5 WR this season, especially in return yardage leagues. 

I don't understand why they still kick to him, just kick the thing out of bounds.  

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Half Freak! Half Amazing!

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The majority of "experts" were advising to stay away from this guy and are just going to be flat out wrong. This dude is a beast.

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But wait.

 

But Sammy Watkins is there.

 

But Alex Smith was close to an MVP last year so Hill has to drop off with a new QB.

 

But too many mouths to feed on the KC offense.

 

But Mahomes is unproven and surely he can't do what Smith did last year.

 

But Hill's efficiency has to drop off. 

 

But he only scores from 30+ yards out so his touchdowns aren't reliable and are going to drop off.

 

But he's not going to get close to as many targets as he did last year.

 

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On 1/9/2018 at 7:45 AM, Corleone said:

Tyreek Hill had quite a 2017. In his first year as the #1 WR for KC, Hill had the following achievements across 15 games (DNP in Week 17, as KC rested starters):

--75 catches (tied for 11th amongst WR's)

--1183 receiving yards (7th in the NFL)

--8 total TD's (7 receiving and 1 via punt return; the 8 TD's were tied for 7th in the NFL)

--59 rush yards & 204 punt return yards

 

What did that lead to fantasy-wise, prior to sitting out Week 17?

--#3 overall WR in .25 point PPR format (finished as #4 including Week 17)

--#4 overall WR in 1 point PPR format (finished as #8 including Week 17)
(the .25 point PPR format also grants 1 point for every 30 return yards, and gives a 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving game)
(the 1 point PPR format has no points for return yardage, 1 bonus point at 100 yards, 1.5 points at 150 yards, 2 points at 200 yards, and 1 point for 40+ yard receptions)

 

Despite this outstanding season, it seems some people continue to underrate Hill. Headed into the fantasy championship Week 16, I still saw people asking if they should start him or not. Many commenters on this forum continue to say that he's too inconsistent and too boom or bust for their tastes. So I figured let's take a crack to dispel the myths, as we look towards what 2018 holds for Hill. I looked at Hill's game-by-game totals, as well as every Top 35 WR, and here are some of the findings...

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is a one-trick pony. He's got great speed but that's it. 

REALITY: False. Hill is far from a one-trick pony. In 2017, Hill finished 7th in catch percentage amongst all WR's, at 71%, making 75 catches on 105 targets. And guess what? Hill was 7th in WR catch percentage in 2016, at 71%. On top of that, Hill is one of only 4 players to reach 70% in both 2016 & 2017 (M.Thomas, Sanu & Cobb are the others). Lastly, Hill finished the regular season within the top 10 of PFF's WR rankings as well. 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 1. He's no good in home games and flip-flops good with bad. 
REALITY: False. The Chiefs alternated away and home games for their first 9 games. And it's true that through 8 weeks, he alternated good games (the away games) with bad games (the home games), as all 4 of his duds (more on duds below) came at home in the first 8 weeks. Because of that, some people thought they had Hill figured out, pegging him as inconsistent. But after the Week 10 bye, he got double-digits FP's (1 point format)  in all 4 of his home games...plus their home playoff game too. On top of all that, in 2016, Hill scored a TD in 9 games, and 5 of the 9 were home games. Going back to 2017, I started tracking where Hill ranked in total WR points from Week 7 and on. He was as high as 2nd and never dropped below 4th...across the final 10 weeks of the standard fantasy season
 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill is too inconsistent Part 2. It's boom or bust with him.

REALITY: False. Hill rarely had busts in 2017. Across both scoring formats mentioned above, he only had 4 dud games. What do I classify as a dud? Less than 5 points in the .25 point format, and less than 10 points in the 1 point format. He never had back-to-back duds. How many other WR's across the top 35 had less dud games? 6 WR's (Hopkins, A.Brown, M.Thomas, Julio all had 3 or less duds, and in the full 1 point format, Landry & K.Allen had less than 4 - though they did have 4 in the .25 point format). So on an avoidance-of-duds basis, Hill was either the 5th or 7th best WR.

MYTH: Tyreek Hill gets all his FP's in one big game. He doesn't help you win that many individual weekly matchups. 

REALITY: False. Hill was actually one of the best WR's in putting up stud games. What do I classify as a stud? 10 or more points in the .25 point format, and 15 or more points in the 1 point format. Hill had 8 stud games in the .25 point format, and 9 stud games in the 1 point format. How many other WR's across the top 35 had more stud games? 2 or 3 WR's, depending on format (Hopkins had 12/11, A.Brown had 9 across both formats, and Landry had 11 in the 1 point format, and 7 in the .25 format). Now Hill's highs during those stud games were much higher than Landry's, so we can safely say that on a stud performance basis, Hill was the 3rd best WR.

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill was the best fantasy WR across the final 4 weeks of the standard fantasy season (Weeks 13--16).

REALITY: True. Hill was the best WR at the most important time of the fantasy season. With fantasy owners fighting for playoff berths, playoff seeding, a potential bye week, and the playoffs themselves, Hill went off for 94.10 FP's (1 point PPR format). In Week 13, he had 42 FP's, Week 14 he had 12.50 FP's, Week 15 he had 20.80 FP's, and Week 16 he had 18.80 FP's. So across the final quarter of the fantasy season, Hill was the best WR in the game

 

MYTH: Tyreek Hill can't put up two huge fantasy seasons like this in a row.

REALITY: False. Hill ALREADY HAS put up two fantasy seasons like this in a row. As discussed above, he was the #3 WR through Week 16 in the .25 point format that also incorporates return yardage. And in that same format, he was the #4 WR in 2016. I suppose if you don't count return yardage in your league, the 2016 stat may not be as impressive to you. But think about this...how many WR's finished in the top 5 across 2016 and 2017? 2 WR's...Hill and A.Brown (who was #1 both seasons). If you stretch to Top 10 seasons, then you can add Julio to the mix. And if you look at 2015 & 2016, Odell was 5th across both seasons. So it's pretty rare these days, to see a WR put up back-to-back Top 10 seasons (let alone back-to-back Top 5). The only players who have achieved that within 2015--2017 are Brown, Odell, Julio and our title subject, Tyreek Hill

 

When you look at everything in total, I have no doubt in my mind that Tyreek Hill was the 3rd best fantasy WR in 2017 (behind only Brown and Hopkins). Does that mean he is a lock to do that again in 2018? Of course not. We still don't know for sure who the KC QB will be...will Alex Smith be let go and Pat Mahomes take over? Who will KC's offensive coordinator be? What other personnel changes will happen in the offseason? These questions all need to be answered. But as many people are interested in getting offseason rankings together and getting an early start on 2018 roster preparation, I thought it would be a good idea to put this info out about Hill sooner rather than later. 


Week 1

7 catches (on 8 targets)

169 receiving yards

2 TD catches (including a 58 yard TD)

2 carries for 4 yards

91 yard punt return TD

3 total TD's

 

I told you all that Tyreek was really good when starting this thread. Some of you already knew. Some of you didn't. I hope those who didn't know listened (though we know many didn't listen...oh well). :ph34r:

 

Edited by Corleone
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1 hour ago, murraygd13 said:

I don't understand why they still kick to him, just kick the thing out of bounds.  

Maybe at least some of them have Hill on their fantasy teams?

 

Obviously I was excited to be able to pair Hill with Mahomes in my draft, but damn, even I didn't expect what happened today.

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