Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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He might lead the league in receiving yards this season. Mahomes is gonna be dropping bombs Air Raid style. Air Reid style? 

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57 minutes ago, RoboFroogs said:

Only question now is if he continues the road/home split like last year. He was like the anti-Big Ben.

 

I remember the concerns about Tyreek's home numbers last year. But an interesting point is that his last 3 regular season games were at home, and he did this...

Week 14: 4 catches - 75 yards - 0 TD

Week 15: 5 catches - 88 yards - 1 TD

Week 16: 6 catches - 109 yards - 0 TD

 

Certainly a fine home finish for Tyreek during that stretch. 

 

His road numbers are straight insane though. Whether it is coincidence or not, take a look at his last 8 road games (all 7 from 2017, plus yesterday's 2018 game)...

 

@NE   - 7 catches - 133 yards - 1 TD (plus 5 rush yards)

@LAC - 5 catches - 77 yards - 1 TD (plus 13 rush yards)

@HOU - 4 catches - 68 yards - 0 TD & 2 punt returns - 75 yards - 1 TD

@OAK - 6 catches - 125 yards - 1 TD (plus 7 rush yards)

@DAL - 2 catches - 64 yards - 1 TD (plus 9 rush yards)

@NYG - 7 catches - 68 yards - 0 TD (plus 16 rush yards) [so an 84 yard, 0 TD performance was his worst road game]

@NYJ - 6 catches - 185 yards - 2 TD

@LAC - 7 catches - 169 yards - 2 TD & 2 punt returns - 95 yards - 1 TD (plus 4 rush yards)

 

So across 8 games, that's 44 catches for 889 yards, 8 TD catches, 2 punt return TD's, and 54 rush yards. Wow.

BTW, the 44 catches come on 58 targets (75.9% catch rate). Wow again. 

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19 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

For some reason, Tyreek can't blow up at home. Weather, field.....it's KANSAS CITY?

 

It was Alex Checkdown Smith? 

 

:) 

 

I have a good feeling it will be different this season at home as well. So hype up having this dude in return yardage league! Leggooooo

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14 hours ago, Pooskay said:

WR1

 

Looking like he'll put up a Randy Moss type season.

Yeah alright...

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10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah alright...

 

Right now, he's on pace 112 catches, 2,704 yds and  48 TDs. 

 

On pace for 2 Randy Mosses seasons ;)

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10 minutes ago, RicFlair said:

 

Right now, he's on pace 112 catches, 2,704 yds and  48 TDs. 

 

On pace for 2 Randy Mosses seasons ;)

Not bad but Fitzpatrick is on pace for 6,672 passing and 64 TDS. Throw in 576 rushing and 16 TDs on the ground.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Not bad but Fitzpatrick is on pace for 6,672 passing and 64 TDS. Throw in 576 rushing and 16 TDs on the ground.

 

Should probably pick him up and Trade for Tyreke Hill. 

 

You'll win your league. 

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Wtf is Rotoworld smoking in their afc targets and touches column? Last year's 4th ranked WR overall and the previous years 17th overall as a rookie...was only a wr3 with wr2 upside?

 

 

 

Hill’s explosiveness and big-play ability is what always kept him in the conversation as a WR3 with weekly WR2 upside. The difference now, though, is that he has a real shot at a sub-30% target share to go along with 4.34 40 elusiveness.

 

 

Edited by RicFlair
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2 minutes ago, RicFlair said:

Wtf is Rotoworld smoking in their afc targets and touches column? Last year's 4th ranked WR overall and the previous years 17th overall as a rookie...was only a wr3 with wr2 upside?

 

 

 

Hill’s explosiveness and big-play ability is what always kept him in the conversation as a WR3 with weekly WR2 upside. The difference now, though, is that he has a real shot at a sub-30% target share to go along with 4.34 40 elusiveness.

 

 

"He can legitimately finish as a top 6 receiver." They say that is if it is so tough to imagine and are conveniently forgetting when he finished as the #3 receiver from weeks 1-16 last year. 

 

This guy is a year behind in his analysis.

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Since Tyreek Hill missed Week 17 last season (as KC rested their starters), I combined his Week 1 from Sunday, to go with his 15 games from 2017...

 

16 game stats
82 catches

1352 receiving yards 

16.4 yards per catch

72.6% catch rate

9 TD's on catches

63 rush yards

299 punt return yards

2 TD's on punt returns

1714 total yards

:ph34r: :ph34r:

 

Edited by Corleone

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I knew the guy was fast but watching the game on Sunday I don't ever think I've seen such blazing speed in pads before.  These are all word class athletes and Reek makes em look like they're standing in mud.  Combined with Mahomes cannon and I think he will be this years WR1.  Wish I saw this coming and bought more shares, I have very little investment in the freak.

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Latest Tyreek stat I've researched...
Per Pro Football Reference, here are the WR's since 2000, who have at least 20 TD's in the first 32 regular season games of their career:

 

      Scoring
Rk   From To Lg Tm G W L T W-L% XPM XPA XP% FGM FGA FG% 2PM Sfty TD Pts
1 Odell Beckham 2014 2016 NFL NYG 32 12 20 0 0.375                 26 156
2 Tyreek Hill 2016 2018 NFL KAN 32 22 10 0 0.688                 23 138
3 A.J. Green 2011 2013 NFL CIN 32 19 13 0 0.594                 20 120
4 Julio Jones 2011 2013 NFL ATL 32 21 11 0 0.656                 20 120
5 Hakeem Nicks 2009 2011 NFL NYG 32 16 16 0 0.500                 20 120

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

Latest Tyreek stat I've researched...
Per Pro Football Reference, here are the WR's since 2000, who have at least 20 TD's in the first 32 regular season games of their career:

 

      Scoring
Rk   From To Lg Tm G W L T W-L% XPM XPA XP% FGM FGA FG% 2PM Sfty TD Pts
1 Odell Beckham 2014 2016 NFL NYG 32 12 20 0 0.375                 26 156
2 Tyreek Hill 2016 2018 NFL KAN 32 22 10 0 0.688                 23 138
3 A.J. Green 2011 2013 NFL CIN 32 19 13 0 0.594                 20 120
4 Julio Jones 2011 2013 NFL ATL 32 21 11 0 0.656                 20 120
5 Hakeem Nicks 2009 2011 NFL NYG 32 16 16 0 0.500                 20 120

And he wasn't really even a full time starter his rookie season like those other guys. He was a ST/gadget player most of the year.

 

Edit: Also, I want to point out that he didn't necessarily come out of no where either. Remember he was a star in the making at OK State but he was rightfully given the boot by Gundy after abusing his pregnant girlfriend. I'm not saying he is a scumbag and he's paid his dues, but had he not done that he may have been a first or second round pick in the 2016 draft. He had to go some JuCo and lost his scholarships IIRC.

Edited by RoboFroogs

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My league is a bit different as WRs and RBs must either score a TD or get over 100 yards to accumulate points. And longer TDs are worth much more than short ones. So with this scoring in mind I was EXTREMELY high on Hill and I "reached" and took him at 18th overall. Needless to say I couldn't be happier so far. 

 

One thing that does have me worried though is that teams might just decide to play a safety deep on Hill to prevent the big play. I know that's easier said than done as he doesn't just run straight lines. But do you guys see Hill's production slipping as defenses try the "bend, but dont break" method of containing Hill? 

 

One thing I did like to hear was how Andy Reid explained that there are so many weapons on his offense (Kelce, Watkins, Hunt, Mahomes) that defenses are forced to be somewhat honest when it comes to containing Hill. Which is true but still, as a Hill owner I think there will be games where Hill will be the focal point of a defense and other offensive pieces will eat. Wouldn't be surprised if theres a game where a defense takes pride in clamping down on Hill but the Chiefs still win by 20-30 and Kelce/Hunt/Watkins dominate. That week might suck for us Hill owners but in the long run it should help him since defenses will know that they cant just key in on him with such a talented and balanced offense and an intelligent and crafty coach running said offense. 

Edited by cbsholy

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40 minutes ago, cbsholy said:

My league is a bit different as WRs and RBs must either score a TD or get over 100 yards to accumulate points. And longer TDs are worth much more than short ones. So with this scoring in mind I was EXTREMELY high on Hill and I "reached" and took him at 18th overall. Needless to say I couldn't be happier so far. 

 

One thing that does have me worried though is that teams might just decide to play a safety deep on Hill to prevent the big play. I know that's easier said than done as he doesn't just run straight lines. But do you guys see Hill's production slipping as defenses try the "bend, but dont break" method of containing Hill? 

 

One thing I did like to hear was how Andy Reid explained that there are so many weapons on his offense (Kelce, Watkins, Hunt, Mahomes) that defenses are forced to be somewhat honest when it comes to containing Hill. Which is true but still, as a Hill owner I think there will be games where Hill will be the focal point of a defense and other offensive pieces will eat. Wouldn't be surprised if theres a game where a defense takes pride in clamping down on Hill but the Chiefs still win by 20-30 and Kelce/Hunt/Watkins dominate. That week might suck for us Hill owners but in the long run it should help him since defenses will know that they cant just key in on him with such a talented and balanced offense and an intelligent and crafty coach running said offense. 

That may be the case, but as we saw this past weekend, he is still burning defenses on short routes...after he catches the ball he's off to the races.  He's simply a very tough guy to defend with his skill set.

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In order to stop Hill with a safety deep you'll essentially have to line your safety up with his heels on the goal line otherwise Hill would still run past him. Even that would be useless because an underneath throw would just turn Hill into a punt returner and he would make that lone safety miss every time. 

 

You simply cannot defend against Hill's speed for the entire game. 

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Hill has graduated to WR1 status to me. Cheers to all the shootout games that the Chiefs will be slanging in!! Andy Reid ‘s diverse formations and designed play calls that all have routes going to each level of the field(flat/middle/deepball). Tyreek Hill speed kills because he can catch the ball on all levels and turn it up for a TD!! Expect Success with a Tyreek and a great seasons as a WR1

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7 hours ago, soccerphysio said:

That may be the case, but as we saw this past weekend, he is still burning defenses on short routes...after he catches the ball he's off to the races.  He's simply a very tough guy to defend with his skill set.

 

and hard AF to catch !! even if you get "close"....LOL

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Tyreek produced the following numbers in Week 2...
 

5 catches (on 6 targets)

90 receiving yards

1 TD catch

6 punt return yards

 

He now has 24 TD's in 33 career regular season games. 

 

At the end of Week 3 2017, he was the #3 WR

At the end of Week 7 2017, he was the #2 WR

At the end of Week 8 2017, he was the #3 WR

At the end of Week 9 2017, he was the #3 WR

At the end of Week 10 2017, he was the #3 WR

At the end of Week 13 2017, he was the #3 WR

At the end of Week 14 2017, he was the #4 WR

At the end of Week 16 2017, he was the #3 WR
(Tyreek then sat out Week 17 2017 along with other KC starters)

At the end of Week 1 2018, he was the #1 WR.

And by the end of Week 2 2018, he'll be the #1 WR.
Chiefs_Steelers_Football_12459.jpg

 

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