Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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3 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

Does anybody else worry that his lack of targets, compared to other WR1s, will hurt him in the future?

He isn't used like other WR1s. Sure more targets are never a bad thing but a mixture of the unique ways they get him the ball (usually higher % catches) and that he is probably the best player in space in the league doesn't make it nearly as much of a concern as your typical WR. Sure he is bound to have a stinker or two eventually (he looked on his way to one this week after the 1st half goose-egg) but he also only needs 1 play to put up WR1 scoring numbers. Even Antonio Brown put up a few duds last year, no WR is immune to it. 

Edited by Jaw1
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8 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

That's a 1 year sample size where he had statistically the most accurate deep ball passer in the league. Now they added Sammy Watkins to the equation.

 

Like I said, he's a steal where he was drafted, but IMO there has to be some concern for him to bust several weeks.

 

I've previously addressed these topics in this thread (some addressed early on after starting this thread, and some addressed last week). But to mention again...

You: "That's a 1 year sample size where he had statistically the most accurate deep ball passer in the league"
 

Me (posted back in January): Towards Smith's downfield accuracy, he was fantastic in 2017. But what interests me is that 2017 was a complete outlier in terms of him throwing the deep ball. Here are his career stats for every season in which he's started at least 10 games, for passes thrown 21 or more yards downfield...

 

--2007 w/SF: 14 for 49 (28.6%) - 1 TD - 2 INT - 544 yards

--2009 w/SF: 15 for 34 (44.1%) - 6 TD - 3 INT - 527 yards

--2010 w/SF: 8 for 29 (27.6%) - 1 TD - 2 INT - 279 yards

--2011 w/SF: 13 for 36 (36.1%) - 3 TD - 1 INT - 457 yards

--2012 w/SF: 8 for 17 (47.1%) - 3 TD - 1 INT - 273 yards

--2013 w/KC: 10 for 36 (27.8%) - 3 TD - 0 INT - 309 yards

--2014 w/KC: 3 for 18 (16.7%) - 0 TD - 2 INT - 114 yards

--2015 w/KC: 10 for 32 (31.3%) - 2 TD - 1 INT - 311 yards

--2016 w/KC: 12 for 40 (30.0%) - 2 TD - 2 INT - 427 yards

--2017 w/KC: 27 for 56 (48.2%) - 11 TD - 0 INT - 1179 yards

 

So 2017 was easily Smith's best season throwing deep. We all knew Smith had been pretty reluctant to throw the deep ball in the past. But it's not like when he did throw deep, he was great at it and simply was afraid to take chances. In the 9 seasons above, prior to 2017, Smith had a combined 21 TD's & 14 INT's. Some downright awful numbers across complete individual seasons. And then in 2017 throwing deep, he had 11 TD's & 0 INT's. 

 

What did Smith have on the field in 2017, that he didn't have in the past? Tyreek Hill serving as his #1 wide receiver.
Of Smith's 27 deep pass completions, 13 went to Hill, for 6 TD's and 628 yards.

Overall, I think between knowing he had Mahomes waiting to take his job AND having Tyreek Hill, Smith was able to come up with an out-of-nowhere season in terms of deep passes. Switching back to the 2018 outlook, having a QB that wants to take deep shots and has the deep threat there, there's potential for another huge Tyreek season. 


You: "IMO there has to be some concern for him to bust several weeks."

Me (posted last week on Page 11): Since 2016, there are only 6 WR's to get a "stud" rating in at least 50% of overall games played. The stud rating I'm referencing can be seen in the quoted post. The percentage stat is simple. Stud games divided by overall games played from 2016--2018...
 

image.png.ac1d0c2f73bf40366687b929c2062af4.png

 

(the percentage has increased, since Tyreek did it again in Week 2 yesterday)

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With Week 2 nearly complete, here are the Top 10 WR standings so far. 

 

This is from my main league's scoring system (.25 point per catch, 6 points per TD, 1 point per 15 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per 30 return yards, 3 point bonus for 100 yard rushing/receiving game): 

 

--Top 10 for Total Points for WR's

1. Tyreek Hill 54.69
2. DeSean Jackson 44.83
3. Michael Thomas 40.75
4. Stefon Diggs 37.88
5. AJ Green 34.38
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster 32.34

7. Adam Thielen 31.88
8. Mike Evans 31.43
9. Emmanuel Sanders 27.75

10. Kenny Golladay 25.65

 

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6 minutes ago, Corleone said:

With Week 2 nearly complete, here are the Top 10 WR standings so far. 

 

This is from my main league's scoring system (.25 point per catch, 6 points per TD, 1 point per 15 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per 30 return yards, 3 point bonus for 100 yard rushing/receiving game): 

 

--Top 10 for Total Points for WR's

1. Tyreek Hill 54.69
2. DeSean Jackson 44.83
3. Michael Thomas 40.75
4. Stefon Diggs 37.88
5. AJ Green 34.38
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster 32.34

7. Adam Thielen 31.88
8. Mike Evans 31.43
9. Emmanuel Sanders 27.75

10. Kenny Golladay 25.65

 

 

Your rankings, over the course of the season, will be different than 95% of the fantasy football population because your settings are kinda weird. 

 

Top 10 in .5 PPR with everything else standard on Yahoo looks like this:

 

1. Hill - 56.30

2. Michael Thomas - 54.90

3. DeSean Jackson - 50.00

4. Stefon Diggs - 44.00

5. AJ Green - 43.60

6. Mike Evans - 41.50

7. Juju - 39.00

8. Adam Thielen - 38.30

9. Emmanuel Sanders - 36.10

10. Davante Adams - 33.70

 

In PPR I'm sure it looks even more different because Michael Thomas has more than double the amount of receptions Tyreek has.

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12 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Your rankings, over the course of the season, will be different than 95% of the fantasy football population because your settings are kinda weird. 

 

Top 10 in .5 PPR with everything else standard on Yahoo looks like this:

 

1. Hill - 56.30

2. Michael Thomas - 54.90

3. DeSean Jackson - 50.00

4. Stefon Diggs - 44.00

5. AJ Green - 43.60

6. Mike Evans - 41.50

7. Juju - 39.00

8. Adam Thielen - 38.30

9. Emmanuel Sanders - 36.10

10. Davante Adams - 33.70

 

In PPR I'm sure it looks even more different because Michael Thomas has more than double the amount of receptions Tyreek has.

 

"Kinda weird"? In your league, 9 of the 10 players are the same as in the rankings I posted (including several in the same exact position).

 

Leagues that don't count return TD's or return yardage from offensive players are kinda weird IMO (and those leagues are out there), but to each their own. 

 

The point for the rankings I posted, is a way to illustrate to non-believers that Tyreek is really good. 

Edited by Corleone

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2 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

"Kinda weird"? In your league, 9 of the 10 players are the same as in the rankings I posted (including several in the same exact position).

 

Leagues that don't count return TD's or return yardage from offensive players are kinda weird IMO (and those leagues are out there), but to each their own. 

 

The point for the rankings I posted, is a way to illustrate to non-believers that Tyreek is really good. 

 

It's only two weeks, so the rankings are close but if you look at the point totals they're different and they will vary even more as the season progresses because you have niche league settings. I'm not saying standard is better or anything like that, just noting that standard league settings are what most people use.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

"Kinda weird"? In your league, 9 of the 10 players are the same as in the rankings I posted (including several in the same exact position).

 

Leagues that don't count return TD's or return yardage from offensive players are kinda weird IMO (and those leagues are out there), but to each their own. 

 

The point for the rankings I posted, is a way to illustrate to non-believers that Tyreek is really good. 

 

Leagues that don't count return TDs are weird. 

 

Seems to me that leagues that count return yards aren't very common at all. 

 

Pretty much none of the major podcasts or rankings include return yardarge which would indicate that it isn't common. 

Edited by RicFlair
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1 minute ago, lbjames6 said:

 

It's only two weeks, so the rankings are close but if you look at the point totals they're different and they will vary even more as the season progresses because you have niche league settings. I'm not saying standard is better or anything like that, just noting that standard league settings are what most people use.

 

 

 

I agree that the point totals will be different across varying leagues. Between standard (no PPR), .25 PPR, .50 PPR, and 1 point PPR, along with varying items such as return yardage, how many points are lost for fumbles, and points for yardage (some do 10, some do 15), they'll always be differences. Overall, if a league has the players themselves in vastly different ranking spots than the average league does, that's where things can be strange.

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9 minutes ago, RicFlair said:

 

Leagues that don't count return TDs are weird. 

 

Seems to me that leagues that count return yards aren't very common at all. 

 

Pretty much none of the major podcasts or rankings include return yardarge which would indicate that it isn't common. 

 

Agreed (though IMO, it should be common) :)

 

I know on CBS, it is very easy to customize that setting towards giving points for return yardage. 

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19 hours ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

Obviously he's probably the most explosive player in the NFL, but a lack of targets hurts anybody. 14 targets through 2 games isn't exactly ideal.

You asked if I was concerned.  A lack of targets hurts any player to a certain extent, but it hurts the most explosive player in the NFL the least bc he capitalizes on those targets by turning them into long chunk plays and TDs.  Conversely, a possession receiver who receives the same amount of targets may not even be rostered in FF... makes sense?

Edited by Magman
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9 hours ago, Corleone said:

[insert wall of text pushing exceptionally variance vulnerable propaganda]

 

When has Alex Smith had a great deep threat to showcase his deep ball accuracy? He's been a game manager his whole life. Andy Reid sparked a renaissance-like jolt into Smith in KC, but his main weapons over the years have been short yardage targets (Charles and Kelce). He didn't have good deep threats. I agree that Tyreek obviously helped his accuracy, but it doesn't dissolve the fact that he was the most accurate last year, so Mahomes has to be # 1 by default to replicate that. I'm not saying that he won't, but I am saying that there isn't much, if any, room to improve. And adding another mouth to feed (Watkins) without vacating any targets makes it hard for me to rank him as a top 5 WR ROS, like some here are suggesting. I have him ranked 8th or 9th right now. He doesn't procure enough targets, especially red zone opportunities, as other top guys do for me to rank him higher.

 

In theory, I have a lot more to say, and if you fire back with more arguing I guess I might, but I don't have the time now to go into more depth. I feel as though I presented a valid opinion. As a big Hill fan and stock holder in 2 leagues, I obviously hope he continues his torrid pace, but I do wish he got more targets.

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13 minutes ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

When has Alex Smith had a great deep threat to showcase his deep ball accuracy? He's been a game manager his whole life. Andy Reid sparked a renaissance-like jolt into Smith in KC, but his main weapons over the years have been short yardage targets (Charles and Kelce). He didn't have good deep threats. I agree that Tyreek obviously helped his accuracy, but it doesn't dissolve the fact that he was the most accurate last year, so Mahomes has to be # 1 by default to replicate that. I'm not saying that he won't, but I am saying that there isn't much, if any, room to improve. And adding another mouth to feed (Watkins) without vacating any targets makes it hard for me to rank him as a top 5 WR ROS, like some here are suggesting. I have him ranked 8th or 9th right now. He doesn't procure enough targets, especially red zone opportunities, as other top guys do for me to rank him higher.

 

In theory, I have a lot more to say, and if you fire back with more arguing I guess I might, but I don't have the time now to go into more depth. I feel as though I presented a valid opinion. As a big Hill fan and stock holder in 2 leagues, I obviously hope he continues his torrid pace, but I do wish he got more targets.

 

He ended up as a top 5 WR last year (#4) even with game manager Alex Smith, because, once again, he's the fastest and most explosive player in the NFL.  You should not be concerned.

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Are we really back to the Watkins argument and "there isn't room to improve?" This is the same baseless arguments that have already been proven to be false though just two weeks.

 

Hill's highest point total in standard in 2017 was 30.5 points and Hill already dropped 35.3 points in week 1. It already has improved and for some reason people are too blind to see what is right in front of their face. 

 

Hill does not need more targets but I wouldn't complain if he got them.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Singing in Dwayne said:

 

When has Alex Smith had a great deep threat to showcase his deep ball accuracy? He's been a game manager his whole life. Andy Reid sparked a renaissance-like jolt into Smith in KC, but his main weapons over the years have been short yardage targets (Charles and Kelce). He didn't have good deep threats. I agree that Tyreek obviously helped his accuracy, but it doesn't dissolve the fact that he was the most accurate last year, so Mahomes has to be # 1 by default to replicate that. I'm not saying that he won't, but I am saying that there isn't much, if any, room to improve. And adding another mouth to feed (Watkins) without vacating any targets makes it hard for me to rank him as a top 5 WR ROS, like some here are suggesting. I have him ranked 8th or 9th right now. He doesn't procure enough targets, especially red zone opportunities, as other top guys do for me to rank him higher.

 

In theory, I have a lot more to say, and if you fire back with more arguing I guess I might, but I don't have the time now to go into more depth. I feel as though I presented a valid opinion. As a big Hill fan and stock holder in 2 leagues, I obviously hope he continues his torrid pace, but I do wish he got more targets.

 

So I post actual facts with statistics...and you quote that with a snide/failed attempt at humor. Hmm...

 

Your initial reference to Smith made it sound like Hill was a product of Smith's deep-ball accuracy. Now you say his prior NINE YEARS of poor deep-ball work was simply because he didn't have good deep threats. You agree that Tyreek helped his accuracy, but quickly change to a (flawed) different point, saying that Mahomes has to be #1 by default for Tyreek to succeed in a big way.

 

Maybe Smith was the #1 deep-ball passer last year because he had Tyreek. Point blank.

 

By the way, how is Alex Smith doing as a deep ball passer this season? Only 2 games, but let's see, oh Smith is actually the WORST deep ball passer in football. The worst? Why do I say that? He didn't throw a single deep ball (a pass 21+ yards) in Week 1. And as I understand it, didn't throw any until garbage time in Week 2 (in a game where he couldn't get his team to score a single touchdown against the Colts). Maybe saying worst might be taking it too far, and it is a small sample size, but he certainly hasn't had any big success.

 

I don't think Mahomes has to be #1 at the deep ball for Tyreek to have another big season like he did last year, even if he gets the same amount of targets. That's a false equivalence. 

 

Quibbling over whether he will be Top 5 or Top 8/9 is not really worth it. At the end of the day, we both believe Tyreek can be a WR1. So I'm not sure why you're arguing with me (and really against yourself). Let's hope he is indeed a WR1.

 

Edited by Corleone
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[1.  Quoting someone and summarizing it as "insert wall of text pushing exceptionally variance vulnerable propaganda" is a jerk move.  Don't do that.  If you don't feel like reading a wall of text, don't.  If you read it but don't want to quote the whole thing, quote a section of it.  If you just want to respond to the person without quoting anything in particular, just @ them.

2.  Dibs on the band name "Exceptionally Variance Vulnerable Propaganda".]

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On 9/16/2018 at 9:02 PM, Singing in Dwayne said:

Does anybody else worry that his lack of targets, compared to other WR1s, will hurt him in the future?

 

Who cares? Was anybody worried about his lack of targets last season when he ended up as an elite WR? This dude is gonna ball all season, locked and loaded as a WR1.

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To all the people citing Smith's deep ball efficiency last year as a reason why you think Hill will drop off ever considered this to be a chicken or the egg situation?

 

Did Alex Smith who has proven over the course of his 12 year career to be a poor deep ball thrower suddenly learn how to throw the deep ball in 2017 which allowed Hill to breakout? Or, does simply having Hill as a full time receiver make anyone a great deep ball thrower including check down artist Alex Smith?

 

Did Smith make Hill in 2017 or did Hill make Smith in 2017? I don't think it's a coincidence that after 11 NFL seasons, in his 12th season Smith suddenly posted his highest yardage total, highest completion rate, highest yards per game, highest yards per attempt, most 300+ yard passing games, most touchdowns, and least interceptions with Tyreek Hill as a full time receiver.

 

Hill is unlike any other receiver in the NFL and thus should not be looked at in the same scope. 

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This is more for discussion purposes than actually predicting that he should be a sell high, but definitely a disappointing day today.  Mahomes is throwing it to a ton of different people now (11 different guys were targeted today), which did end up actually limiting Hill today to only 2 catches on 4 targets.

 

One thing I do think this is indicating is that the predictions in here of him being the #1 WR in fantasy might have been a bit premature.  I'm a Hill owner, so I'm not just trolling in here or anything.

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Mahomes spreads the love around big time. Not great for us as far as consistency with Hill. 

 

I mean, it's working for the team of course, but is doing freak all for my fantasy points lol

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Not quite sure why there was a laughing response to my post.  My post was definitely a legitimate one, and Mahomes spreading the ball around so much isn't something that should just be laughed off.  I'm not saying that games like today will be the norm.  Just that the claims of him being the top WR in fantasy or right up there might have been a bit premature after his amazing first game.

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3 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Not quite sure why there was a laughing response to my post.  My post was definitely a legitimate one, and Mahomes spreading the ball around so much isn't something that should just be laughed off.  I'm not saying that games like today will be the norm.  Just that the claims of him being the top WR in fantasy or right up there might have been a bit premature after his amazing first game.

 

Games like these are necessary so defenses aren't able to funnel too large of a portion of defensive attention to any one guys way, whether it be Kelce or Hill or Watkins or Hunt. It just goes to show how many different weapons there are to account for in this offense. These types of games are honestly not a bad thing for Hill's rest of season outlook.

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1 minute ago, KilloWertz said:

Not quite sure why there was a laughing response to my post.  My post was definitely a legitimate one, and Mahomes spreading the ball around so much isn't something that should just be laughed off.  I'm not saying that games like today will be the norm.  Just that the claims of him being the top WR in fantasy or right up there might have been a bit premature after his amazing first game.

Over 3 games, 14 catches on 18 targets, run plays designed for him, and return yardage.  Overreaction to 1 week is a common thread around here.  Even in his "non" productive games he still put up at 42 yard catch which is what he can do anytime the ball is in his hands. This week has less to do with Mahomes and more to do with the defense blanketing him.  With the other threats putting up production, DEF will not be able to just key in on him.  Maybe you're right in the end but reacting to 1 game instead of the looking at the 3 weeks as a whole isn't practical IMO.

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