Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, FF4life said:

Sell high.

 

Look at his upcoming schedule.

I wouldn't be selling any players from the #1 offense in football. That's a losing strategy.

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11 minutes ago, FF4life said:

Sell high.

 

Look at his upcoming schedule.

When are you guys going to realize this dude is matchup-proof?  You set him and forget him.  The Chiefs are going to score points EVERY SINGLE WEEK.  He's already scored double digit points against arguably the best corner in the league in Jalen Ramsey.  I could care less who his opponent is.  Nobody can cover him one on one.

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4 minutes ago, battle2heaven said:

 

Looks good to me. What games are you worried about?

 

Chiefs defense is swiss cheese. Chiefs will need to always have the peddle on the gas to win.

 

 

At home 3 of the next 4 games - the only road game is @ Cleveland which they'll be playing from in front.

 

Week 12 BYE

 

Bad playoff matchup week 14 home vs Ravens

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9 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

#1, #17, "bust", "respectable", "respectable", #1

 

That's 2 games - quite the oppisite of consistency, isn't it?

 

Okay, you want to see how consistent Tyreek is compared to the top players in the NFL?  Going back to 2016, Tyreek has double digit FP's in 20 of 37 games. How good is that? Only 5 RB's, WR's or TE's in the NFL have more such games.

---------
I consider a stud game as double-digit FP's in my main league's scoring system (.25 point PPR format for WR's & RB's, .50 point PPR for TE's, 6 points for a TD, 1 point for every 15 receiving/rushing yards, 1 point for every 30 return yards, and 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving/rushing game). And a dud is under 5 points in this format. 

 

**Players who "stud" at least 50% of the time**

Melvin Gordon - 26 studs (and 4 duds) out of 35 games played

Ezekiel Elliott - 25 studs (and 1 dud) out of 31 games played

Todd Gurley - 24 studs (and 6 duds) out of 37 games played

Antonio Brown - 24 studs (and 6 duds) out of 34 games played

Travis Kelce - 21 studs (and 9 duds) out of 37 games played

Davante Adams - 20 studs (and 9 duds) out of 35 games played

DeAndre Hopkins - 20 studs (and 7 duds) out of 37 games played

Tyreek Hill - 20 studs (and 8 duds) out of 37 games played

LeVeon Bell - 19 studs (and 1 dud) out of 27 games played

Mike Evans - 19 studs (and 8 duds) out of 36 games played

Zach Ertz - 17 studs (and 9 duds) out of 34 games played
Odell Beckham - 15 studs (and 7 duds) out of 26 games played

Alvin Kamara - 15 studs (and 3 duds) out of 21 games played

Kareem Hunt - 13 studs (and 3 duds) out of 22 games played
 

**Players who "stud" less than least 50% of the time**

Carlos Hyde - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 35 games played
LeSean McCoy - 17 studs (and 8 duds) out of 36 games played

Michael Thomas - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 36 games played

Julio Jones - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 36 games played
TY Hilton - 16 studs (and 17 duds) out of 36 games played

AJ Green - 15 studs (and 7 duds) out of 32 games played

Mark Ingram - 15 studs (and 8 duds) out of 33 games played

Jordan Howard - 15 studs (and 10 duds) out of 36 games played

Demaryius Thomas - 15 studs (and 11 duds) out of 38 games played

Adam Thielen - 15 studs (and 16 duds) out of 38 games played

Golden Tate - 15 studs (and 16 duds) out of 38 games played

Brandin Cooks - 14 studs (and 13 duds) out of 38 games played

Devonta Freeman - 14 studs (and 8 duds) out of 32 games played

Rob Gronkowski - 13 studs (and 8 duds) out of 28 games played

Stefon Diggs - 13 studs (and 13 duds) out of 33 games played 

Jarvis Landry - 13 studs (and 10 duds) out of 38 games played

Doug Baldwin - 11 studs (and 14 duds) out of 36 games played

Christian McCaffrey - 10 studs (and 7 duds) out of 21 games played

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 9 studs (and 6 duds) out of 20 games played

Keenan Allen - 8 studs (and 5 duds) out of 23 games played

(and if there's a non-rookie player you don't see here, I've done the research...and they don't get into Tyreek's 50% section either)

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50 minutes ago, Squats&Milk said:

Which players do you prefer that are the #1 reciever you could get in the 3rd round?

 

Thielen?

 

 

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Hill is flat out amazing.  There will be hit and miss games by nature in an offense predicated on deception....but he can never be benched.  

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4 minutes ago, eoschris said:

 

Thielen?

 

 

Great so we got the second best 3rd round WR. WHO CARES?

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14 minutes ago, eoschris said:

 

Thielen?

 

 

Possibly. He sure looks the part.

 

I like Hill in Keeper/Dynasty especially but theres still lots of season left for hill to be #1.

Edited by bhawks489

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55 minutes ago, FF4life said:

Sell high.

 

Look at his upcoming schedule.

 

I'll never forget the amount of people who screamed from the rooftops "Sell high on Gurley, look at his playoff schedule!" or "Trade Gurley for McCoy!" last season.

 

You don't sell elite players. Hill is set and forget, regardless of matchup. Selling the #1 WR in the best offense in the league (who also have to make up for their bad defense) is ridiculous, especially considering his schedule isn't even that bad.

Edited by Sartorialism
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Tyreek is on pace for 91 catches, 1512 yards, and 16 receiving TD's. Paces can of course drop as the season progresses. But that pace gives you an equivalent idea of what kind of numbers he's put up so far. 

Edited by Corleone
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42 minutes ago, FF4life said:

 

 

At home 3 of the next 4 games - the only road game is @ Cleveland which they'll be playing from in front.

 

Week 12 BYE

 

Bad playoff matchup week 14 home vs Ravens

 

Bad playoff matchup?  Sell High?  Lmao.  

 

This is the definition of making poor decisions based on a perceived matchup MONTHS down the road.   

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Sell high right now and get a MONSTER haul in return.

 

His blowup games are followed by mediocre games.

 

Now is the time to sell. Package him for a Mark Ingram, a Joe Mixon, etc.

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12 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Okay, you want to see how consistent Tyreek is compared to the top players in the NFL?  Going back to 2016, Tyreek has double digit FP's in 20 of 37 games. How good is that? Only 5 RB's, WR's or TE's in the NFL have more such games.

---------
I consider a stud game as double-digit FP's in my main league's scoring system (.25 point PPR format for WR's & RB's, .50 point PPR for TE's, 6 points for a TD, 1 point for every 15 receiving/rushing yards, 1 point for every 30 return yards, and 3 point bonus for a 100-yard receiving/rushing game). And a dud is under 5 points in this format. 

 

**Players who "stud" at least 50% of the time**

Melvin Gordon - 26 studs (and 4 duds) out of 35 games played

Ezekiel Elliott - 25 studs (and 1 dud) out of 31 games played

Todd Gurley - 24 studs (and 6 duds) out of 37 games played

Antonio Brown - 24 studs (and 6 duds) out of 34 games played

Travis Kelce - 21 studs (and 9 duds) out of 37 games played

Davante Adams - 20 studs (and 9 duds) out of 35 games played

DeAndre Hopkins - 20 studs (and 7 duds) out of 37 games played

Tyreek Hill - 20 studs (and 8 duds) out of 37 games played

LeVeon Bell - 19 studs (and 1 dud) out of 27 games played

Mike Evans - 19 studs (and 8 duds) out of 36 games played

Zach Ertz - 17 studs (and 9 duds) out of 34 games played
Odell Beckham - 15 studs (and 7 duds) out of 26 games played

Alvin Kamara - 15 studs (and 3 duds) out of 21 games played

Kareem Hunt - 13 studs (and 3 duds) out of 22 games played
 

**Players who "stud" less than least 50% of the time**

Carlos Hyde - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 35 games played
LeSean McCoy - 17 studs (and 8 duds) out of 36 games played

Michael Thomas - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 36 games played

Julio Jones - 17 studs (and 7 duds) out of 36 games played
TY Hilton - 16 studs (and 17 duds) out of 36 games played

AJ Green - 15 studs (and 7 duds) out of 32 games played

Mark Ingram - 15 studs (and 8 duds) out of 33 games played

Jordan Howard - 15 studs (and 10 duds) out of 36 games played

Demaryius Thomas - 15 studs (and 11 duds) out of 38 games played

Adam Thielen - 15 studs (and 16 duds) out of 38 games played

Golden Tate - 15 studs (and 16 duds) out of 38 games played

Brandin Cooks - 14 studs (and 13 duds) out of 38 games played

Devonta Freeman - 14 studs (and 8 duds) out of 32 games played

Rob Gronkowski - 13 studs (and 8 duds) out of 28 games played

Stefon Diggs - 13 studs (and 13 duds) out of 33 games played 

Jarvis Landry - 13 studs (and 10 duds) out of 38 games played

Doug Baldwin - 11 studs (and 14 duds) out of 36 games played

Christian McCaffrey - 10 studs (and 7 duds) out of 21 games played

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 9 studs (and 6 duds) out of 20 games played

Keenan Allen - 8 studs (and 5 duds) out of 23 games played

(and if there's a non-rookie player you don't see here, I've done the research...and they don't get into Tyreek's 50% section either)

 

Thanks for the in depth statistics, but you're making the point nobody asked for.

 

I'm not debating that Hill is a damn good football player - he is. I'm just saying at the moment he is a hit or miss player.

It's a new season, new QB, new WR2. Last year was last year. Let's do this on this year, since that's what we're going to measure him at the end of the season.

 

I'm playing in 1PPR so I adapt you're evaluation a little bit.

Dud <10

Stud >20

So its Dud / Between / Stud

And just for fun I put some more numbers there.

 

 

Name D B S Total Best Score Lowest Score Difference Weekly Avg
Thielen 5 1 0 153,20 31,10 16,20 14,90 25,53
Hill 2 3 1 142,96 46,10 8,80 37,30 23,83
Hopkins 3 3 0 128,50 33,90 14,60 19,30 21,42
Brown 3 3 0 124,80 28,10 15,70 12,40 20,80
Jones 3 3 0 116,80 28,00 11,20 16,80 19,47
Woods 2 3 1 114,80 33,70 7,30 26,40 19,13
Sanders 2 4 0 113,40 29,50 11,30 18,20 18,90
Smith-Schuster 3 3 0 113,10 31,10 10,00 21,10 18,85
Thomas 3 1 1 111,90 38,00 8,70 29,30 22,38
Green 1 5 0 110,40 29,90 10,80 19,10 18,40
Boyd 4 0 2 109,00 25,70 7,60 18,10 18,17

 

These are the top WR in PPR.

 

Out of the Elite WR...

...who is all over the place in DBS?

...whose Difference high-low is the highest?
 

Result:

Tyreek Hill hasn't been consistent this year. At least not as consistent as the Elites. Is he a damn good player? - Yes! Did he score a lot of points? - Yes! Does these two questions affect his concistency? - No!

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Great so we got the second best 3rd round WR. WHO CARES?

The people who asked for it? :rolleyes:
And who's first and second is still up for debate.

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

When are you guys going to realize this dude is matchup-proof?  You set him and forget him.  The Chiefs are going to score points EVERY SINGLE WEEK.  He's already scored double digit points against arguably the best corner in the league in Jalen Ramsey.  I could care less who his opponent is.  Nobody can cover him one on one.

Yep.  The only limits are that KC has so many mouths to feed.   But that’s ok-  every WR has off games.   Few have tyreeks ceiling or capacity to break it anytime you cover him 1 v 1.    

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There's only a few players in the league that aren't hit and miss so that to me is a moot point. Michael Thomas for example is great, but he's had down weeks just like Hill. Theilan, Brown,  Hopkins, Julio are maybe the only WRs that week in and week out get it done with a consistent high floor.  But Hill's ceiling is ridiculous and honestly, his floor is pretty good too.

Edited by mikeflavaz
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13 minutes ago, mikeflavaz said:

There's only a few players in the league that aren't hit and miss so that to me is a moot point. Michael Thomas for example is great, but he's had down weeks just like Hill. Theilan, Brown, Julio are maybe the only WRs that week in and week out get it done with a consistent high floor.  But Hill's ceiling is ridiculous and honestly, his floor is pretty good too.

And MAHOMES!!!!  The guy never stops pushing.  He can have a bad half and it’s like it never happened after the break.    2 games now he’s been absolutely clutch with massive comebacks.   2-3 tds in one half for Hill is possible any game regardless of opponent.   It’s one mistake-  and he’s GONE.    

 

I despise the Chefs but you’ve gotta start their weapons every week. 

 

records will fall.

Edited by Impreza178

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35 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

I'm playing in 1PPR so I adapt you're evaluation a little bit.

Dud <10

Stud >20

So its Dud / Between / Stud

And just for fun I put some more numbers there.

 

Name D B S Total Best Score Lowest Score Difference Weekly Avg
Thielen 5 1 0 153,20 31,10 16,20 14,90 25,53
Hill 2 3 1 142,96 46,10 8,80 37,30 23,83
Hopkins 3 3 0 128,50 33,90 14,60 19,30 21,42
Brown 3 3 0 124,80 28,10 15,70 12,40 20,80
Jones 3 3 0 116,80 28,00 11,20 16,80 19,47
Woods 2 3 1 114,80 33,70 7,30 26,40 19,13
Sanders 2 4 0 113,40 29,50 11,30 18,20 18,90
Smith-Schuster 3 3 0 113,10 31,10 10,00 21,10 18,85
Thomas 3 1 1 111,90 38,00 8,70 29,30 22,38
Green 1 5 0 110,40 29,90 10,80 19,10 18,40
Boyd 4 0 2 109,00 25,70 7,60 18,10 18,17

 

These are the top WR in PPR.

 

Out of the Elite WR...

...who is all over the place in DBS?

...whose Difference high-low is the highest? 
 

Result:

Tyreek Hill hasn't been consistent this year. At least not as consistent as the Elites. Is he a damn good player? - Yes! Did he score a lot of points? - Yes! Does these two questions affect his concistency? - No!

 

There are so many things about your post, I don't even know where to begin. But here goes (your comments are in italics below)...

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part I - if your format only has 1 Stud (S) game for Tyreek, then the format makes no sense. He's had TWO games with 7 catches, 140+ receiving yards and 2 or more receiving touchdowns. That's not a Stud game for you?

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part II - your format lists only 5 total Stud games from the above top 11 WR's overall! How is their weekly average so high if that's the case? 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part I - of course Tyreek's difference is the highest. That's because he's had the BEST game for ANY WR in the NFL this season (by the way, he's also had the THIRD-BEST game for any WR too). And not only was Tyreek's best game for any WR this season the best, but it was the best by 8.3 points (at least in my system, as his best tops Ridley's Week 3 performance by 8.3). 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part II - forget my scoring system where I mention the 8.3 difference. Let's look at your own system posted above. Tyreek's best game was 46.10. The second-best is Thomas at 38. That's a difference of 8.1 points. On top of that, the low game for Thomas is lower than Tyreek's lowest game. But you are going to use as justification for your consistency argument, the fact that Tyreek's high-low difference is the highest? Wow...

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One of the reasons you draft and/or trade for a stud is for those few weeks out of a season where they single-handily carry your team to victory. Yes, a stud is a model of consistency, but a stud, at least in my opinion, should also have that eye-popping ceiling. Hill has demonstrated that not once but already twice this year. He has that home-run hitting ability that others just don't have and that gives him the edge in a debate over some other studs.

 

Only thing that's stopping him is targets. He has had at least 12 targets in 2 out of his last three games. If he continues to get double digit targets, watch out!

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4 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

 

There are so many things about your post, I don't even know where to begin. But here goes (your comments are in italics below)...

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part I - if your format only has 1 Stud (S) game for Tyreek, then the format makes no sense. He's had TWO games with 7 catches, 140+ receiving yards and 2 or more receiving touchdowns. That's not a Stud game for you?

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part II - your format lists only 5 total Stud games from the above top 11 WR's overall! How is their weekly average so high if that's the case? 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part I - of course Tyreek's difference is the highest. That's because he's had the BEST game for ANY WR in the NFL this season (by the way, he's also had the THIRD-BEST game for any WR too). And not only was Tyreek's best game for any WR this season the best, but it was the best by 8.3 points (at least in my system, as his best tops Ridley's Week 3 performance by 8.3). 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part II - forget my scoring system where I mention the 8.3 difference. Let's look at your own system posted above. Tyreek's best game was 46.10. The second-best is Thomas at 38. That's a difference of 8.1 points. On top of that, the low game for Thomas is lower than Tyreek's lowest game. But you are going to use as justification for your consistency argument, the fact that Tyreek's high-low difference is the highest? Wow...

And how the heck does Thielen have 5 duds and 1 average game?? What an extremely weird post. 

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3 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

One of the reasons you draft and/or trade for a stud is for those few weeks out of a season where they single-handily carry your team to victory. Yes, a stud is a model of consistency, but a stud, at least in my opinion, should also have that eye-popping ceiling. Hill has demonstrated that not once but already twice this year. He has that home-run hitting ability that others just don't have and that gives him the edge in a debate over some other studs.

 

Only thing that's stopping him is targets. He has had at least 12 targets in 2 out of his last three games. If he continues to get double digit targets, watch out!

 

 

The only reason Hill just had a monster game, is because he was playing on the road against the elite Patriots offense, so the Chiefs had to constantly play catchup all game.

 

After this week, expect a bunch of down games.

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