Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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All the flack Hill takes stems from so many being wrong that Hill is more than a gadget player.  They were so convinced and when proved wrong, they just won't let it go.  They nitpick and hang on to every little scenario that could possibly spell HIlls demise and prove them right.  It's sad really. Move on guys.  Hill is here to stay.  Pick another battle to fight.  

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50 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

Thanks for the in depth statistics, but you're making the point nobody asked for.

 

I'm not debating that Hill is a damn good football player - he is. I'm just saying at the moment he is a hit or miss player.

It's a new season, new QB, new WR2. Last year was last year. Let's do this on this year, since that's what we're going to measure him at the end of the season.

 

I'm playing in 1PPR so I adapt you're evaluation a little bit.

Dud <10

Stud >20

So its Stud / Between / Dud

And just for fun I put some more numbers there.

 

 

Name S B D Total Best Score Lowest Score Difference Weekly Avg
Thielen 5 1 0 153,20 31,10 16,20 14,90 25,53
Hill 2 3 1 142,96 46,10 8,80 37,30 23,83
Hopkins 3 3 0 128,50 33,90 14,60 19,30 21,42
Brown 3 3 0 124,80 28,10 15,70 12,40 20,80
Jones 3 3 0 116,80 28,00 11,20 16,80 19,47
Woods 2 3 1 114,80 33,70 7,30 26,40 19,13
Sanders 2 4 0 113,40 29,50 11,30 18,20 18,90
Smith-Schuster 3 3 0 113,10 31,10 10,00 21,10 18,85
Thomas 3 1 1 111,90 38,00 8,70 29,30 22,38
Green 1 5 0 110,40 29,90 10,80 19,10 18,40
Boyd 4 0 2 109,00 25,70 7,60 18,10 18,17

 

These are the top WR in PPR.

 

Out of the Elite WR...

...who is all over the place in SBD?

...whose Difference high-low is the highest?
 

Result:

Tyreek Hill hasn't been consistent this year. At least not as consistent as the Elites. Is he a damn good player? - Yes! Did he score a lot of points? - Yes! Does these two questions affect his concistency? - No!

 

 

 

 

The people who asked for it? :rolleyes:
And who's first and second is still up for debate.

 

Sorry I put Stud Between Dud in the wrong order, my bad.

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7 minutes ago, peleincubus said:

And how the heck does Thielen have 5 duds and 1 average game?? What an extremely weird post. 

 

It is very weird. I'm not sure if perhaps he mistakenly switched the columns around, or what. I thought for a moment it was a column switch, but that wouldn't make sense either, since Tyreek should have 3 stud games by his format (Week 1, Week 2, Week 6). Bizarre. 

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Hill imo due to the offense he is in is top 4 ros and I thought he was hopkins quality at a late 2nd early 3rd round discount this year. In a 10 team league i misclicked and took larry fitz over him in 1 league and knew right away I made a mistake (not joking). Thankfully I have a lot more shares from auction leagues. He was my no 1 wr target in auctions for his price point. As long as he and mahomes stay healthy he will have his mediocre 5 catch 60 yard games as every wr does but no one has his ceiling not even theilen. Theilen sure does have the safest floor. 

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6 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

It is very weird. I'm not sure if perhaps he mistakenly switched the columns around, or what. I thought for a moment it was a column switch, but that wouldn't make sense either, since Tyreek should have 3 stud games by his format (Week 1, Week 2, Week 6). Bizarre. 

 

Week 1 > 20

Week 2 10-20

Week 3 < 10

Week 4 10-20

Week 5 10-29

Week 6 > 20

 

So 2-3-1 SBD

 

You marked him as one of the most consistent WR over his career. I argued he is not this season so far and I compared him to the top receivers of the season so far and he is not as consistent as most Elite receivers are.

 

(Sorry if what I write is weird but it has to be translated while input and output, so there is room for errors. Also I mixed the order of SBD for which I apologize again...mea culpa)

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Just now, thebadferret said:

 

Week 1 > 20

Week 2 10-20

Week 3 < 10

Week 4 10-20

Week 5 10-29

Week 6 > 20

 

So 2-3-1 SBD

 

You marked him as one of the most consistent WR over his career. I argued he is not this season so far and I compared him to the top receivers of the season so far and he is not as consistent as most Elite receivers are.

 

(Sorry if what I write is weird but it has to be translated while input and output, so there is room for errors. Also I mixed the order of SBD for which I apologize again...mea culpa)

 

Wait, so for Week 2 (5 catches, 90 yards and 1 TD), you're counting him as a Between game because he had exactly 20 (and not over 20, aka 20.1)? That's a flaw in methodology, to say the least. 

 

Also, not sure if you missed me quoting you before, but here it is again...

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part I - of course Tyreek's difference is the highest. That's because he's had the BEST game for ANY WR in the NFL this season (by the way, he's also had the THIRD-BEST game for any WR too). And not only was Tyreek's best game for any WR this season the best, but it was the best by 8.3 points (at least in my system, as his best tops Ridley's Week 3 performance by 8.3). 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part II - forget my scoring system where I mention the 8.3 difference. Let's look at your own system posted above. Tyreek's best game was 46.10. The second-best is Thomas at 38. That's a difference of 8.1 points. On top of that, the low game for Thomas is lower than Tyreek's lowest game. But you are going to use as justification for your consistency argument, the fact that Tyreek's high-low difference is the highest? Wow...

 

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Unfortunetly I‘m on my phone right now so I can‘t comfortly access the stats in the margin I‘d need to redo this.

 

Quick to your 2 points.

 

1

Yes I use it, bc I‘m not trying to argue that he is not great, I argue that he is not consistent. Which is proven by the fact, that his scores are all over the place with 2 being as high as it gets, 1 being great, 2 being okay and 1 being bad.

Thats not constant.

 

2

Yeah I use him. Because after his first 3 great games he has been bad. So not consistent good.

 

 

Again in general, I‘m not making the point that thielen wins you more championships than Hill or loses you more. I just prefer to not to rely on a huge game to win my matchup.

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4 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

Unfortunetly I‘m on my phone right now so I can‘t comfortly access the stats in the margin I‘d need to redo this.

 

Quick to your 2 points.

 

1

Yes I use it, bc I‘m not trying to argue that he is not great, I argue that he is not consistent. Which is proven by the fact, that his scores are all over the place with 2 being as high as it gets, 1 being great, 2 being okay and 1 being bad.

Thats not constant.

 

So in your eyes, 20 points (5 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD) is not a stud or consistent game (even though it broke into the 20 point barrier). Okay, well, we've got that established...

 

6 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

2

Yeah I use him. Because after his first 3 great games he has been bad. So not consistent good.

 

Again in general, I‘m not making the point that thielen wins you more championships than Hill or loses you more. I just prefer to not to rely on a huge game to win my matchup.

 

So in your eyes, a player who has the best WR game in the NFL and then has a floor game comparable to other elite WR's, is not consistent because his high-low disparity has a big difference. Okay, well, we've got that established too...

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10 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

So in your eyes, 20 points (5 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD) is not a stud or consistent game (even though it broke into the 20 point barrier). Okay, well, we've got that established...

 

 

So in your eyes, a player who has the best WR game in the NFL and then has a floor game comparable to other elite WR's, is not consistent because his high-low disparity has a big difference. Okay, well, we've got that established too...

Exactly. It would be better if Hill’s best 4 games of the season were on average 10 points less per game. Then the spread would not be as large from his lowest point games of the season and therefore a better fantasy player. 

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

 

 

There are so many things about your post, I don't even know where to begin. But here goes (your comments are in italics below)...

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part I - if your format only has 1 Stud (S) game for Tyreek, then the format makes no sense. He's had TWO games with 7 catches, 140+ receiving yards and 2 or more receiving touchdowns. That's not a Stud game for you?

 

"...who is all over the place in DBS?" Part II - your format lists only 5 total Stud games from the above top 11 WR's overall! How is their weekly average so high if that's the case? 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part I - of course Tyreek's difference is the highest. That's because he's had the BEST game for ANY WR in the NFL this season (by the way, he's also had the THIRD-BEST game for any WR too). And not only was Tyreek's best game for any WR this season the best, but it was the best by 8.3 points (at least in my system, as his best tops Ridley's Week 3 performance by 8.3). 

 

"...whose Difference high-low is the highest?" Part II - forget my scoring system where I mention the 8.3 difference. Let's look at your own system posted above. Tyreek's best game was 46.10. The second-best is Thomas at 38. That's a difference of 8.1 points. On top of that, the low game for Thomas is lower than Tyreek's lowest game. But you are going to use as justification for your consistency argument, the fact that Tyreek's high-low difference is the highest? Wow...

Based on his numbers, I don't think S is stud, maybe Sit(as in outside the top 30?)

 

or S could stand for single since only the players who have had games under 10 points have an S game.

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21 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

So in your eyes, 20 points (5 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD) is not a stud or consistent game (even though it broke into the 20 point barrier). Okay, well, we've got that established...

 

 

So in your eyes, a player who has the best WR game in the NFL and then has a floor game comparable to other elite WR's, is not consistent because his high-low disparity has a big difference. Okay, well, we've got that established too...

 

As i said I maybe overput the barrier but (as I stated) I‘m not in the position to redo the table rn and I don’t want to refer to it as long as I don‘t know the overall change.

 

So I stated his performances as „as high as it gets“ x 2, great, good x 2 and bad. That still is all over the place. That still is not consistent great like other Elite receivers are.

 

-

 

From a statistical view this is exactly true. Throwing a dart 6 times hitting 40,40,20,20,15,10 is not at consistent as 25,25,20, 20,18,18 although it’s less overall

 

 

@poleincubus

Stop trolling. I‘m not talking taking it away. I’m talking distribution over times.

Edited by thebadferret

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17 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

 

As i said I maybe overput the barrier but (as I stated) I‘m not in the position to redo the table rn and I don’t want to refer to it as long as I don‘t know the overall change.

 

So I stated his performances as „as high as it gets“ x 2, great, good x 2 and bad. That still is all over the place. That still is not consistent great like other Elite receivers are.

 

-

 

From a statistical view this is exactly true. Throwing a dart 6 times hitting 40,40,20,20,15,10 is not at consistent as 20, 20,18,18,15,15 although it’s less overall

 

Okay, I played league darts for several years...

 

The first set of numbers totals 145. 

The second set of numbers totals 106.

 

Now you do acknowledge that the second set is less overall. But you also say that the first set is not as consistent.

You are wrong on stating it isn't as consistent.

 

Since you know darts, you know that the best number to go for is 20. 

The first set hit 20 on FOUR different throws. The dart hit where it was supposed to hit 4 of 6 times. Not only that, it hit double 20 twice. Great darts!

The second set hit 20 on TWO different throws. The dart hit where it was supposed to hit 2 of 6 times. Not only that, it didn't hit any doubles at all. 

 

There's still game to be played, but you have a much-better chance to win 501, 301 or Cricket, with the first set of dart throws.  

And there's still football to be played, but you have a much-better chance to win at fantasy football with Tyreek Hill. 

 

Edited by Corleone
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1 hour ago, FF4life said:

 

 

The only reason Hill just had a monster game, is because he was playing on the road against the elite Patriots offense, so the Chiefs had to constantly play catchup all game.

 

After this week, expect a bunch of down games.

What's the excuse for Week 1 against the Chargers?

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15 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

What's the excuse for Week 1 against the Chargers?

 

On the road against an elite offense....same as the Pats

 

 

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34 minutes ago, FF4life said:

 

On the road against an elite offense....same as the Pats

 

 

KC led this game from the start, but nice try.  And the Chargers are a good offense, but they're not the Chiefs, Rams or Saints.  I wouldn't call them elite.

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Just now, JoeJoe88 said:

KC led this game from the start, but nice try.  And the Chargers are a good offense, but they're not the Chiefs, Rams or Saints.  I wouldn't call them elite.

 

 

It was Week 1 of the season. He had a string of meh games after a decent Week 2.

 

 

How is this any different?

 

I encourage Tyreek Hill owners to sell high right now and get a Mark Ingram/ Joe Mixon + another WR in return.

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4 minutes ago, FF4life said:

 

 

It was Week 1 of the season. He had a string of meh games after a decent Week 2.

 

 

How is this any different?

 

I encourage Tyreek Hill owners to sell high right now and get a Mark Ingram/ Joe Mixon + another WR in return.

And I would encourage people to not listen to you.  

 

"Sell high" is about as overused as "JAG" on these boards.

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1 hour ago, FF4life said:

 

On the road against an elite offense....same as the Pats

 

40 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

KC led this game from the start, but nice try.  And the Chargers are a good offense, but they're not the Chiefs, Rams or Saints.  I wouldn't call them elite.

 

Yup, KC did lead from the start (never trailing in the game). And let's see, how did they get the lead?

 

Oh yeah, Tyreek Hill returned a punt 91 yards for a TD on KC's first touch of the season. That made it 7-0. Then after the Chargers got a FG, KC had their first offensive series of the season...and Tyreek made a 58-yard TD catch to make it 14-3. 

 

But yeah, Tyreek built all his stats in that game because the Chiefs were playing catchup against an elite offense...:rolleyes:

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3 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

Naysayers need to put in more effort and do a better job, because this is all very painful to read.  

I'm not sure what else the dude can do to make people happy.  We're talking about a guy that was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round of most drafts and he's the NUMBER 2 FANTASY WR.  

 

Sell high?  Screw that.  I'm riding him to the finals.

Edited by JoeJoe88
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5 hours ago, thebadferret said:

I argued he is not this season so far and I compared him to the top receivers of the season so far and he is not as consistent as most Elite receivers are.


My favorite part of your methodology is where you take the fact that he's scored around 10 points higher than any of the top-10 receivers in PPR's highest outputs twice and manage to turn it into a slight against him.

kcjerk.0.gif

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I picked him up late 3rd in Dynasty....not planning on selling, this year anyway as I'll be 4-2 after tonight.

 

You want him in the offseason you better come with a something big for me to let him go.

Edited by Pimpin'Texas

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I cant comprehend this consistency thing. We are not even halfway into the FF season. Let's see this play out. All I know is there's maybe 2 WRs I'd consider over Hill. CONSIDER.

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