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Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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16 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

I fail to see how the KC offense improves when Smith is coming off a career year and Hunt was already the rushing leader

 

Good point -- they probably won't improve in any one statistic. Especially if Mahomes does not protect the ball. What if Mahomes falls in love with Sammy Watkins as a target and just does not develop a rapport with Hill? I guess, even if Hill's numbers end up similar to this year when it is all said and done, you took more risk in order to get that production. 

Edited by AJJones
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 I DO feel confident he will make those deep ball attempts because he likes to launch the ball however I do feel confident he will be inaccurate and have more interceptions than Smith did as he learns the position.

 

That's a different conversation and one that impacts overall team success (turnovers lose games, less time of possession) than WR fantasy impact.  I'd expect lower catch rates but higher ypc.

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Lotta Sammy wat camp buzz has people fading tyreek. 

It is to my understanding that mahomes & tyreek hate each other. Apparently Tyreek took Mahomes ol lady for a night out on the KC streets. They no longer speak to each other. Mahomes refuses to look at tyreek. According to camp "buzz" I'm guessing tyreek sees a 86% dip in targets...In Sammy we trust.

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Haha that’s hilarious.. Tyreek will eat .. trust that! And so will Sammy but not at that expense of the cheetah .. this offense is gonna explode

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Mahomes to Tyreek is a match made in heaven!!! One of the most impressive throws I've ever seen. 70 yard bomb with Tyreek leaving 3 dudes in the dust. Wow.

 

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Lol. He embarrassed what looked to be their entire secondary.  You can't find a single fantasy expert dude that champions him for 2018. I'll gladly take my chances. 

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There are a lot of fantasy expert dudes hyping up Tyreek Hill, right? Yes, there are others who label him as a likely bust. But from most rankings, he's going in the 2nd round, or 3rd at worst. That's pretty high praise for a RB turned WR with a new QB where there are a lot of other weapons. I like him this season, but don't think that he's exactly going under anyone's radar. Below is one of the many commentaries championing Hill. I can't say if it's from an "expert," but it's exemplary of many other pro-Hill write ups.

 

Undervalued

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
ADP: 3.11, WR15

The case for Hill being undervalued: He’s coming off a PPR WR6 (FPts/G) and only getting better in this third year in the league.

The case against Hill being undervalued: Team changes include a new quarterback, new offensive coordinator, and the addition of Sammy Watkins. Also, it’s unlikely that Hill will score seven touchdowns from 30+ yards out again.

Verdict: One of my biggest fantasy writing regrets from 2017 was not including Tyreek Hill in my undervalued wide receivers column last season. Anyone who read my stuff last year (and this year) knows my affinity for Hill (the player, not the human). I can’t tell you why I didn’t include him last year, but I’m certainly not making the same mistake twice.

I understand the counterarguments. The unlikelihood of long touchdowns. Alex Smith was the best deep ball passer in the league last year. Pat Mahomes is a huge unknown. Sammy Watkins is around. None of this is false. However, Hill is the most dangerous playmaker in the league. He is the best deep threat in the league. He made Smith, not the other way around. While Mahomes won’t be as efficient as Smith, I expect Mahomes to uncork it deep to Hill more often. Hill also saw 105 targets last season in 15 games. Many analysts are projecting that to decrease. Why? Why would Andy Reid replace conservative Smith with gun-slinging Mahomes if he wasn’t looking to run a more aerial offense?

Watkins’ guaranteed money does not matter. Talent matters and Hill is the most talented WR on the Chiefs and it’s not close. The Chiefs are not going to funnel targets away from their most explosive player, who has done nothing but succeed over his first two years. Hill will never see nor see 140+ targets in a season. That doesn’t mean he can’t see 120 as he continues to hone his craft and still leave room for 90-100 targets for Watkins.

Hill is going to be a WR1 in fantasy this year. You can take that to the bank. You currently do not have to pay a WR1 price to acquire him. The guy returned second round value from the fourth round last year and his ADP barely moved. The market is offering you almost the same discount on him this year. Take it.

Edited by bsong71
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12 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

Mahomes to Tyreek is a match made in heaven!!! One of the most impressive throws I've ever seen. 70 yard bomb with Tyreek leaving 3 dudes in the dust. Wow.

 

 

 

Did mahommes just toss a 70yd PASS?

 

I said PASS not play meaning where he threw it to where it was caught.

 

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8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Did mahommes just toss a 70yd PASS?

 

I said PASS not play meaning where he threw it to where it was caught.

 

Mahommes let it go when he was on the 25 and Reek caught at the 6.  :o

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23 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Did mahommes just toss a 70yd PASS?

 

I may have said somewhere the kid isn't fully ripe for the NFL yet but DAYUM he can throw. That makes Hill a lot more interesting.

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I've been telling myself Tyreek is a fluke, he isn't big enough, he can't keep making the big plays, there is no way he can continue being an WR1 and is overvalued at his draft position.  I am no longer a naysayer.  They are going to feed this kid the ball.  He's got wheels and Mahomes has a cannon, so we are probably going to see a lot more of what we saw last night.  Count me in as a believer in Tyreek.

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12 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

Mahomes to Tyreek is a match made in heaven!!! One of the most impressive throws I've ever seen. 70 yard bomb with Tyreek leaving 3 dudes in the dust. Wow.

 

 

Beautiful throw and catch. Who were those safeties though? 

 

That's how you NOT make an NFL roster letting a receiver get behind all of you

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4 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

That's how you NOT make an NFL roster letting a receiver get behind all of you

Easier said than done when the WR you're trying to cover runs a 4.24 40

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5 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Easier said than done when the WR you're trying to cover runs a 4.24 40

 

That's what the SAFETY is for

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12 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

I've been telling myself Tyreek is a fluke, he isn't big enough, he can't keep making the big plays, there is no way he can continue being an WR1 and is overvalued at his draft position.  I am no longer a naysayer.  They are going to feed this kid the ball.  He's got wheels and Mahomes has a cannon, so we are probably going to see a lot more of what we saw last night.  Count me in as a believer in Tyreek.

 

I've always been sold on Hill, but that same chatter from "experts" about the presence of Watkins, the inexperience of Mahomes, who will Mahomes target, Hill being a one year fluke, etc, etc, etc started getting louder in my ear. Luckily, we were all reminded just how dynamic and fun this guy can be. Yes, this was only preseason, but still Hill reminds us how he is one of the best value picks in this years draft.

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11 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

Lol. He embarrassed what looked to be their entire secondary.  You can't find a single fantasy expert dude that champions him for 2018. I'll gladly take my chances. 

I've been snatching up hill in the 3rd in practically every money draft since may. I've been aboard this train!

 

also bet some poster he would outscore Michael Thomas but we will see how's that turns out 

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He kinda reminds me of the progression of Steve Smith. Not as physical. But a guy who was just a speed dude and kept working on his craft to build an all around game. 

 

 

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On 8/18/2018 at 5:19 AM, bhawks489 said:

I've been snatching up hill in the 3rd in practically every money draft since may. I've been aboard this train!

 

also bet some poster he would outscore Michael Thomas but we will see how's that turns out 

I very highly doubt he outscores Thomas. Thomas is the model of consistency.

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I very highly doubt he outscores Thomas. Thomas is the model of consistency.

Oh, I think it will be close. Id love to have both.

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