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Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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On 8/18/2018 at 8:19 AM, bhawks489 said:

I've been snatching up hill in the 3rd in practically every money draft since may. I've been aboard this train!

 

also bet some poster he would outscore Michael Thomas but we will see how's that turns out 

 

I can definitely see this! I hope you're right! Heavily invested.

Edited by ponza88

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Has looked great in the preseason. I'm thinking by this time next year, he will be in the conversation for top 5-7 fantasy WR.

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5 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

Has looked great in the preseason. I'm thinking by this time next year, he will be in the conversation for top 5-7 fantasy WR.

he's in that conversation this year

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9 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

Has looked great in the preseason. I'm thinking by this time next year, he will be in the conversation for top 5-7 fantasy WR.

 

1 minute ago, TommyKramer said:

he's in that conversation this year

 

i didn't include him in my top 12, but ... the connection with 'Homes looks seriously legit, while the KC defense doesn't - there's gonna be a ton of balls in the air this year as shootouts would seem to be the game script norm - they have the weapons to pressure any defense, pending 'Homes development (and i believe he'll be just fine), Hill will eat and feast.  

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Something just keeps me from totally buying into this guy, but I know that's starting to seem ridiculous. It's just hard to put him in the class with all the other WR1s considering his size and skillset. Relying on a rookie QB doesn't help much either.

 

In my 12-team, 3-WR PPR league, I'd ideally have him as a WR2 to complement a WR1 in a high-powered offense who gets fed the ball and is a primary red-zone target. Considering that, I'll probably miss out on him, unless I go RB-RB and need to grab a WR in the 3rd. In that case, I'd try to hedge my bets by loading up at the position with sleepers in the middle and later rounds.

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

Something just keeps me from totally buying into this guy, but I know that's starting to seem ridiculous. It's just hard to put him in the class with all the other WR1s considering his size and skillset. Relying on a rookie QB doesn't help much either.

 

In my 12-team, 3-WR PPR league, I'd ideally have him as a WR2 to complement a WR1 in a high-powered offense who gets fed the ball and is a primary red-zone target. Considering that, I'll probably miss out on him, unless I go RB-RB and need to grab a WR in the 3rd. In that case, I'd try to hedge my bets by loading up at the position with sleepers in the middle and later rounds.

I get where you’re coming from.  Hill gets his points from big plays and that can be scary.  He’s also not built like the prototypical #1 WR, like Julio, Evans, etc.

 

But, Tyreek Hill has speed that is unmatched.  No one in the NFL can catch him (on defense), they better jam him at the line or it’s over...  Hill also has fantastic hands, and doesn’t need to slow down it make catches.

 

Defenses could get the safety in the mix, but with Kelce creating mismatches they can’t, and they still have to worry about Hunt.  The main worry/knock against Hill was Watkins taking targets, but the preseason has shown the chemistry is Mahomes + Hill.  Watkins looks overpaid...

 

Ideally you want Hill as your WR2, but there’s no reason to expect he won’t finish in the top10 again this year.  I expect Hill to put up even more fantasy points because their Defense looks like trash.  It will be Mahomes to Hill to close out games.  I like Hill and the Chiefs offense so much, after drafting Hill, I reached and took Mahomes in the 8th round...

 

I went RB-WR-WR-WR (12 person PPR, RB Keeper, drafting 3rd)

David Johnson, Hopkins, Diggs, Hill

Edited by seanismorris
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1 hour ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

Something just keeps me from totally buying into this guy, but I know that's starting to seem ridiculous. It's just hard to put him in the class with all the other WR1s considering his size and skillset. Relying on a rookie QB doesn't help much either.

 

In my 12-team, 3-WR PPR league, I'd ideally have him as a WR2 to complement a WR1 in a high-powered offense who gets fed the ball and is a primary red-zone target. Considering that, I'll probably miss out on him, unless I go RB-RB and need to grab a WR in the 3rd. In that case, I'd try to hedge my bets by loading up at the position with sleepers in the middle and later rounds.

To be fair, Mahomes isn't a rookie. Sure he didn't play much last season, but he has been on the team 1 full season so he isn't exactly starting from scratch like a rookie QB. His arm is a great compliment to Hill's skillset. 

1 minute ago, seanismorris said:

I get where you’re coming from.  Hill gets his points from big plays and that can be scary.  He’s also not built like the prototypical #1 WR, like Julio, Evans, etc.

 

But, Tyreek Hill has speed that is unmatched.  No one in the NFL can catch him (on defense), they better jam him at the line or it’s over...  Hill also has fantastic hands, and doesn’t need to slow down it make catches.

 

Defenses could get the safety in the mix, but with Kelce creating mismatches they can’t, and they still have to worry about Hunt.  The main worry/knock against Hill was Watkins taking targets, but the preseason has shown the chemistry is Mahomes + Hill.  Watkins looks overpaid...

 

Ideally you want Hill as your WR2, but there’s no reason to expect he won’t finish in the top10 again this year.  I expect Hill to put up even more fantasy points because their Defense looks like trash.  It will be Mahomes to Hill to close out games.  I like Hill and the Chiefs offense so much, after drafting Hill I reached and took Mahomes in the 8th round...

 

I went RB-WR-WR-WR (12 person PPR, RB Keeper, drafting 3rd)

David Johnson, Hopkins, Diggs, Hill

I agree with this guy 100%. The Chiefs still have a pretty talented offense surrounding Hill and, with Kelce drawing middle coverage, can create some good mismatches for Hill. 

 

I'm hoping I can go RB-RB-WR (10 man league, pick 10) and be able to grab Hill at #30. I'm all in on this guy this season.

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5 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I get where you’re coming from.  Hill gets his points from big plays and that can be scary.  He’s also not built like the prototypical #1 WR, like Julio, Evans, etc.

 

But, Tyreek Hill has speed that is unmatched.  No one in the NFL can catch him (on defense), they better jam him at the line or it’s over...  Hill also has fantastic hands, and doesn’t need to slow down it make catches.

 

Defenses could get the safety in the mix, but with Kelce creating mismatches they can’t, and they still have to worry about Hunt.  The main worry/knock against Hill was Watkins taking targets, but the preseason has shown the chemistry is Mahomes + Hill.  Watkins looks overpaid...

 

Ideally you want Hill as your WR2, but there’s no reason to expect he won’t finish in the top10 again this year.  I expect Hill to put up even more fantasy points because their Defense looks like trash.  It will be Mahomes to Hill to close out games.  I like Hill and the Chiefs offense so much, after drafting Hill, I reached and took Mahomes in the 8th round...

 

I went RB-WR-WR-WR (12 person PPR, RB Keeper, drafting 3rd)

David Johnson, Hopkins, Diggs, Hill

Lol at a league letting Hopkins fall to 22 and hill to 44 in ppr.

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5 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Lol at a league letting Hopkins fall to 22 and hill to 44 in ppr.

The run on RBs made my day.  I was thrilled to get Diggs and Hill.  For some reason CBS is down on Hopkins, I had to scroll down to get him.  The guy in front of me took OBJ...

 

Hill might be my favorite player in the league, he made some unbelievable catches last year.  People write him off as just a speed guy, but he’s a physical freak.  I’m a Broncos fan that frequently goes holy @#$& that was a great catch (watching Hill).  The Chiefs offense might be the best in the league...

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22 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

To be fair, Mahomes isn't a rookie. Sure he didn't play much last season, but he has been on the team 1 full season so he isn't exactly starting from scratch like a rookie QB. His arm is a great compliment to Hill's skillset. 

I agree with this guy 100%. The Chiefs still have a pretty talented offense surrounding Hill and, with Kelce drawing middle coverage, can create some good mismatches for Hill. 

 

I'm hoping I can go RB-RB-WR (10 man league, pick 10) and be able to grab Hill at #30. I'm all in on this guy this season.

Hill’s ADP at CBS is 31 so there’s hope.  The range is 21st to 48th.  Hopefully no one in your league watches the preseason...

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12 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

The run on RBs made my day.  I was thrilled to get Diggs and Hill.  For some reason CBS is down on Hopkins, I had to scroll down to get him.  The guy in front of me took OBJ...

 

Hill might be my favorite player in the league, he made some unbelievable catches last year.  People write him off as just a speed guy, but he’s a physical freak.  I’m a Broncos fan that frequently goes holy @#$& that was a great catch (watching Hill).  The Chiefs offense might be the best in the league...

 

Well you obviously took advantage of your league-mates inexperience lol. Never ever use any platforms generated ADP's in the draft room. CBS, while a great platform for fantasy, has s---y rankings and ADP's in their draft room. You will have a leg up on any person who did just two hours of research before the draft and will use their rankings/ADP as a point of reference.

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All you have to do is watch him and see that his talent goes far beyond his speed.  He has great hands and runs great routes. And as far as play-making ability goes, you can probably do no better.  The one box that you leave unchecked for him is ideal WR size. Though, I loved Steve Smith, prime Desean Jackson and Santana Moss and I just think his attributes far outweigh whatever negatives you can find.  I also do not buy into the logic that because he scored most of his TDs outside  the redzone,  it is cause for concern...  Essentially saying that his ability to score from anywhere on the field is somehow a negative.  

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I can't see him quite jumping up into the Antonio, Odell, DeAndre level, but overall WR4 isn't out of the question.

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51 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

I can't see him quite jumping up into the Antonio, Odell, DeAndre level, but overall WR4 isn't out of the question.

 

I think you get the hype train ? award so far this year 

 

giphy.gif

 

 

I do like Hill this year, though. 

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51 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

I can't see him quite jumping up into the Antonio, Odell, DeAndre level, but overall WR4 isn't out of the question.

he would need the targets they get to jump to their level 

 

i wouldnt be surprised if hill scored the most points per target last year tho 

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1 hour ago, mikeflavaz said:

All you have to do is watch him and see that his talent goes far beyond his speed.  He has great hands and runs great routes. And as far as play-making ability goes, you can probably do no better.  The one box that you leave unchecked for him is ideal WR size. Though, I loved Steve Smith, prime Desean Jackson and Santana Moss and I just think his attributes far outweigh whatever negatives you can find.  I also do not buy into the logic that because he scored most of his TDs outside  the redzone,  it is cause for concern...  Essentially saying that his ability to score from anywhere on the field is somehow a negative.  

 

The Cheetah's red zone starts at the OTHER twenty yard line ?

 

Edited by thirdeye
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People knock Hill's size but 2 of the top 3 WR's this year are also 5'10" and under 200 lbs. He might not be on their level, but he might be in the next couple years. Hill is obviously an ascending talent. To me, it looks like he has been working on becoming a better route runner as to not just be known as a speed guy. 

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I haven't really been considering Hill at all but that 8/88 statline this week popped out. Mahomes is such a perfect fit at QB for a guy like Hill and if he keeps peppering him with targets (12/12 this preseason) I just can't see Hill not being a legit #1. I'm drafting #1 and am strongly considering going with a Gurley, Diggs, Hill start if I can. 

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14 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

All you have to do is watch him and see that his talent goes far beyond his speed.  He has great hands and runs great routes. And as far as play-making ability goes, you can probably do no better.  The one box that you leave unchecked for him is ideal WR size. Though, I loved Steve Smith, prime Desean Jackson and Santana Moss and I just think his attributes far outweigh whatever negatives you can find.  I also do not buy into the logic that because he scored most of his TDs outside  the redzone,  it is cause for concern...  Essentially saying that his ability to score from anywhere on the field is somehow a negative.  

That's all valid, but I think it still makes him a prototypical WR2. Undersized, speedy receivers certainly hold considerable fantasy value as playmakers, but my impression is that TDs come more reliably with guys who are primary targets in the red zone and endzone. I don't have the stats to back this up, but I think it's pretty common that long receptions fall short of the goal line. The receiver often gets hauled down by a safety or training corner somewhere inside the 20-yard line. NFL defensive backs and coordinators are too good to get consistently burned downfield, and the better ones are able to constrain dynamic offenses by playing deep zone and bracket coverages that keep the plays in front of them. Then, they tighten up the coverage and turn up the pass rush, using the shortened field as a way to mitigate their opponents' speed by getting physical and making them work with smaller windows. This is where one-dimensional teams fizzle out and settle for field goals, while elite teams have large-bodied receivers who gain separation in closed quarters. At the end of the day, I think a lot of speedster receivers often end up supplying 80% of the yards gained on a given drive while either the drive stalls or someone else cleans up the TD. Elite receivers who are primary red zone targets could reasonably be given benchmark of about 10 TDs to be considered a "good" season. Receivers who are used primarily downfield or out of the slot rarely hit that mark. For them, you'd probably hope for around 5-7 TDs. Honestly,  I'd be interested to see an advanced stats composed looks at something like yards/rec., total rec. red zone targets, and long passes as a predictor of TDs. I'm inclined to believe that a lot of guys who average over 15+ yards/rec.  score on the order of several TDs less than those with 120+ rec. and upper tier red-zone usage.

Of the three former receivers you mentioned, DeSean Jackson and Santana Moss were also guys that I put ideally in the WR2 mould. Jackson had a lot of games had around something like 3 receptions for 125 yards and a TD on a good day. A of days would be like 5 rec. for 70 yards, and often got taken out of important games by physical corners. That's not reliable enough for a WR1.  

Having said that, I think Hill is a more talented receiver than either Jackson or Moss because of some of the things you pointed out. He's a better route runner and has enough shiftiness to go along with his speed that allows him to get separation at the line more consistently and be effective receiver between the hashmarks. He's also a more physical runner who exhibits the vision of a RB. In that regard, they even use him  as a runner out of the backfield, which gives another dimension to his game beyond those guys. Honestly,  writing it all out makes Hill sound better than I give him credit. Hill is a more dynamic and well-rounded player than those two, but I'd still ideally have him at WR2 based on usage and uncertainty at the QB position. I definitely believe in his talent, I just don't have enough overall confidence in his role and situation to go all-in.

I don't think Steve Smith is much like any of the others. His game was on another level. Smith had speed and lacked stature, but he was known for his physicality and tenacity while playing with a psychological edge. He was small, but he was 185 pounds of dense muscle who had no qualms about contact. Smith is unique in that he's maybe one of the only small WRs in the modern era to possess the traits of an all-around elite receiver. 

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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3 hours ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

That's all valid, but I think it still makes him a prototypical WR2. Undersized, speedy receivers certainly hold considerable fantasy value as playmakers, but my impression is that TDs come more reliably with guys who are primary targets in the red zone and endzone.


I am a much more shallow person. I don't look for a typical size, weight, or any other factor. What I see with Tyreek is that they send on average 6 targets his way - that's just not enough to be a dependable WR1. 

The guy is insane fun to watch in real life, but unless they start feeding him 9-12 targets a game on a regular basis, he's not in the WR1 discussion for me.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:


I am a much more shallow person. I don't look for a typical size, weight, or any other factor. What I see with Tyreek is that they send on average 6 targets his way - that's just not enough to be a dependable WR1. 

The guy is insane fun to watch in real life, but unless they start feeding him 9-12 targets a game on a regular basis, he's not in the WR1 discussion for me.

It's more about predicting a guy's role and production based on how coaches use particular kinds of players. My point was just a speculation that bigger-bodied, possession-type receivers are usually targeted more regularly in the red zone and on third down, leading to higher catches and TDs on average for those kinds of receivers over speed demons who often move the chains into scoring position but don't get the TD. However, I recognize Hill's got more value than your typical burner as a guy who is morr highly in the short and intermediate game.

Edited by EaglesRocker97
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5 hours ago, Boudewijn said:


I am a much more shallow person. I don't look for a typical size, weight, or any other factor. What I see with Tyreek is that they send on average 6 targets his way - that's just not enough to be a dependable WR1. 

The guy is insane fun to watch in real life, but unless they start feeding him 9-12 targets a game on a regular basis, he's not in the WR1 discussion for me.

 

That was with smith. People are valuing him higher because he now has a qb who has an amazing deep ball paired with one of the best deep ball threats out there. It’s going to be Moss+Brady all over again. It’ll be beautiful. He also seems to be one of the new qbs favorite targets so his 6 targets/game average seems like it’ll go up. 

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I'm glad other people are thinking the same as me.

 

In a 10 team league, I have #2, and Have been struggling with RB-RB-RB, or RB-RB-Hill....or maybe even RB-Hill-RB just to be sure I get the guy I want. It's hard because he's rated SO much lower than the rest of the second tier of receivers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, FooserX said:

I'm glad other people are thinking the same as me.

 

In a 10 team league, I have #2, and Have been struggling with RB-RB-RB, or RB-RB-Hill....or maybe even RB-Hill-RB just to be sure I get the guy I want. It's hard because he's rated SO much lower than the rest of the second tier of receivers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He will for sure be there at 3.2. I was able to get him at 4.1 in my 10 teamer.

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Prefer him over guys like Diggs, Thielen, Hilton and Baldwin. I would even take him over Keenan Allen.

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