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Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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He's been hyper efficient his first two years, and I'm not sure if that continues with Mahomes. The cool thing about Tyreke is that he can tack on 150 rushing yards, a rushing td, and another punt return td or two to whatever receiving stats he gets. Let's say he does end up less efficient, and drops to the 60 catch range. Given his big play ability and the added rush yardage, he's still going to near 1,000 yards and tack on 6-8 td's. Basically, I think worst case scenario has Hill as a boom/bust wr2 type. The upside is another top 10 season. Given his diversity, he's well worth a round 3 pick to me. 

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53 minutes ago, affliction said:

Prefer him over guys like Diggs, Thielen, Hilton and Baldwin. I would even take him over Keenan Allen.

In a 1 pt PPR league, it would be unwise to take Hill over Keenan Allen or Doug Baldwin. Assuming they all play 16 games, Allen and Baldwin will be top 10, possibly top 5 in targets and catches alone.

 

In standard, I would think about Hill over them however.

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Last year, he was the #4 WR in standard, #8 in .5 PPR, and #9 in PPR.  If your league has bonuses for long scores, he ranked even higher (#3 in one of my leagues).  This is where focusing on targets is overrated.  He doesn't need a lot of targets to do a lot of damage.  There's big play potential every time he touches the ball.  And now he has a QB with a huge arm.  There will be couple plays every single game where Mahomes says just outrun everyone and I'll heave it to you.  And they will connect on a bunch of those.

 

Forget about being a WR1 or WR2 (which is ridiculous).  I predict Hill will challenge for #1 overall WR.  And to draft him where you typically can get him represents a rare bargain.

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I still don't understand why we are looking to last season for how many targets Hill could/will get this year. He has a different QB this season and one who appears to be willing to siphon Hill the ball as we've seen so far this preseason (I get that preseason is a joke). Hill only averaged 7 targets per game last year with only one game with double digit targets (11). Mahomes and Hill look to have great rapport and I don't think it would be shocking for Hill to up his average targets per game to at least 8 or even 9.

 

Freak talent + increased targets = a huge potential to increase on his 2017 production.

Edited by munde53
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1 hour ago, Chardo said:

Last year, he was the #4 WR in standard, #8 in .5 PPR, and #9 in PPR.  If your league has bonuses for long scores, he ranked even higher (#3 in one of my leagues).  This is where focusing on targets is overrated.  He doesn't need a lot of targets to do a lot of damage.  There's big play potential every time he touches the ball.  And now he has a QB with a huge arm.  There will be couple plays every single game where Mahomes says just outrun everyone and I'll heave it to you.  And they will connect on a bunch of those.

 

Forget about being a WR1 or WR2 (which is ridiculous).  I predict Hill will challenge for #1 overall WR.  And to draft him where you typically can get him represents a rare bargain.

 

This is a bit much. I drafted him and like him a lot, but he's not going to put up numbers close to Brown or OBJ. In standard scoring, he would have to put up equivalent to 7 or 8 more TDs to get in that range. 

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6 minutes ago, LurkingFFPlayer said:

 

This is a bit much. I drafted him and like him a lot, but he's not going to put up numbers close to Brown or OBJ. In standard scoring, he would have to put up equivalent to 7 or 8 more TDs to get in that range. 

 

Or another 200 yards and 4 TDs.  The upside is there, and it's no pipe dream.  I expect him to be around 1400/10, which would put him right in the mix for #1.  Let's just say he will finish closer to #1 than #13.  The idea of him as a WR2 is ridiculous.  

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24 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

The idea of him as a WR2 is ridiculous.  

I could accept "debatable," but I don't see how it's ridiculous going into this season. If we see him back it up again this year, I'd probably have him ranked at the the end of WR1 next season. If you want to be more judicious, you could call him a WR1 with WR2 upside, a WR 1/2, if you will. For what it's worth, I take an automatically cautious approach to fantasy values. Uncertainties and suspicions usually lead me to be more conservative in my projections.

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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6 minutes ago, EaglesRocker97 said:

I could accept "debatable," but I don't see how it's ridiculous going into this season. If we see him back it up again this year, I'd probably have him ranked at the the end of WR1 next season. If you want to be more judicious, you could call him a WR1 with WR2 upside, a WR 1/2, if you will. For what it's worth, I take an automatically cautious approach to fantasy values. Uncertainties and suspicions usually lead me to be more conservative in my projections.

 

Ok, so we're debating.  I don't see how the #4 receiver last year, entering his third NFL year, in an explosive offense, is considered a WR 1/2.  What's the impetus for ranking him lower than his actual performance?

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39 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

Ok, so we're debating.  I don't see how the #4 receiver last year, entering his third NFL year, in an explosive offense, is considered a WR 1/2.  What's the impetus for ranking him lower than his actual performance?

Well, he's only put up those numbers for one year, so I'm hesitant to accept it as the norm. Regardless, I only put so much stock it last year's performances for anybody since there are so many variables that you have that go into a guy's production, a lot of which is out of his control. If there is significant continuity from one year to the next, then I will put more stock in the previous year as a predictor. If the guy is an established veteran who's consistebtly thrived in different situations, I have less anxiety about a drop off in production due to changes around him. If a guy gets consistent red zone usage, I consider his scoring potential to be more reliable than a guy whose work is mostly confined to deep throws, slants, and screens. 

Now, I don't think Hill is a one-dimensional player by any means; there are just handful of guys I'd rather have at my top WR spot because they have a more established history of consistently producing at the top of their position. We can even call Hill a WR1 at the moment based on recent production, but I would just consider him a more risky guy in that position than others. Generally, I want my WR1 to be the first read on passes into the end zone, but if a guy returns the same value on yardage and receptions with 7 tds as a guy catching 10, then he's just as good.

With all of that said, the main things that will give me pause for at least one more season before I have confidence in him at the top of my depth chart are 1) the uncertainty of a first-year starting quarterback playing in a division with stong defenses and for a coach who has been known to become one-dimensional and keep throwing the ball beyond the point of reason 2) Only one year of WR1 production is a small sample size considering the resume of the other strating receivers. What makes this game so hard is the volatility of player performances, both on a weekly and yearly basis, so I try to be vigilant for circumstances that might hinder certain players from returning a good investment.

Edited by EaglesRocker97

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The 69 yard bomb in preseason week 2 was great to see but i was far more excited about his week 3 performance.  Mahomes him Hill 8 times and just about all over the field.  Not every defense is the bears and this is preseason but I think teams are going to have a really hard time accounting for him this season. He's everything I want in a wr and his volume is now looking like it will go up, maybe significantly as Watkins now takes the top off while Tyreek is moving the chains.  Ya gotta go with your gut when you draft though I think you can't go wrong with Tyreek if you're on the fence. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:


 unless they start feeding him 9-12 targets a game on a regular basis, he's not in the WR1 discussion for me.

 

He had 6.5 targets a game last season and he was a strong WR1 (#4 overall).

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47 minutes ago, mikeflavaz said:

The 69 yard bomb in preseason week 2 was great to see but i was far more excited about his week 3 performance.  Mahomes him Hill 8 times and just about all over the field.  Not every defense is the bears and this is preseason but I think teams are going to have a really hard time accounting for him this season. He's everything I want in a wr and his volume is now looking like it will go up, maybe significantly as Watkins now takes the top off while Tyreek is moving the chains.  Ya gotta go with your gut when you draft though I think you can't go wrong with Tyreek if you're on the fence. 

 

 

 

Man, had not seen this. I'm even more excited I got him. 

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He's an easy WR1 in leagues that count return yards...I'm in a 25 yards/pt league and he's been a top 5 WR in back to back years. Also his rushing stats were a little down last year and I expect those to increase to closer to his rookie year totals.

Edited by bearjew289
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7 hours ago, affliction said:

Prefer him over guys like Diggs, Thielen, Hilton and Baldwin. I would even take him over Keenan Allen.

LOL I took him over all those exact guys

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Watching the week 3 highlights is starting to really make me wonder if I need to take this guy early in round 3. Wouldn't take him over Keenan Allen, but am starting to consider him over Doug Baldwin now, even in a ppr. It looks like they are really trying to get him the ball everywhere on the field, especially the short bubble screens that Denver used to do with Demaryius when he was in his prime.

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5 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

The 69 yard bomb in preseason week 2 was great to see but i was far more excited about his week 3 performance.  Mahomes him Hill 8 times and just about all over the field.  Not every defense is the bears and this is preseason but I think teams are going to have a really hard time accounting for him this season. He's everything I want in a wr and his volume is now looking like it will go up, maybe significantly as Watkins now takes the top off while Tyreek is moving the chains.  Ya gotta go with your gut when you draft though I think you can't go wrong with Tyreek if you're on the fence. 

 

 

Bears D is good. Yes, its preseason, but Hill is going to be a stud. 

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9 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

another punt return td or two

 

4 hours ago, bearjew289 said:

e's an easy WR1 in leagues that count return yards

 

I'm pretty sure Hill is permanently off punt/kickoff returns. He was gradually taken off them last year and I don't think he's going to continue those duties.

 

IIRC I know he was taken off kickoffs, and I'm like 99% sure he's off punts too.

Edited by omnom1337

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6 minutes ago, omnom1337 said:

 

 

I'm pretty sure Hill is permanently off punt/kickoff returns. He was gradually taken off them last year and I don't think he's going to continue those duties.

 

IIRC I know he was taken off kickoffs, and I'm like 99% sure he's off punts too.

Hill returned 25 punts last year with De'Anthony Thomas returning 8. Hill was the primary punt returner all the way though week 17.

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

Hill returned 25 punts last year with De'Anthony Thomas returning 8. Hill was the primary punt returner all the way though week 17.

 

Ah, good to know. I seemed to have been lumping the two together.

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It would however make sense that Hill is eventually taken off punts, if he isn't already. I believe Reid did the same with Desean Jackson, who after a while would only be back to return punts when they needed a spark.  

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I think people on this board are probly 1st year owners.....I drafted him 4th round last year and picked him up in the second with Diggs/Thielen/fitz still there. There’s no one in the NFL like cheetah hill and he wants to mold his game to an AB type receiver from my research from last year. Dude has potential to be WR1

Edited by Watitdookie
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8 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

It would however make sense that Hill is eventually taken off punts, if he isn't already. I believe Reid did the same with Desean Jackson, who after a while would only be back to return punts when they needed a spark.  

 

Sparky ...

 

 

 

Reid does produce some head scratching moments, but, yeah, Hill will be called upon for return duties when the big guy needs that big play

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