Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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I'm optimistic enough about Hill's preseason and potential with Mahomes, that I'm putting my money where my mouth is as the thread creator. I'm keeping Tyreek Hill over Antonio Brown.

 

It's an auction keeper league, where AB would be $51 and Hill is $16. Let's do it once again Tyreek.

 

Edited by Corleone
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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

I'm optimistic enough about Hill's preseason and potential with Mahomes, that I'm putting my money where my mouth is as the thread creator. I'm keeping Tyreek Hill over Antonio Brown.

 

It's an auction keeper league, where AB would be $51 and Hill is $16. Let's do it once again Tyreek.

 

Well duh the values make it worth it to keep hill.

 

Try doing that straight up with no dollar value or round value....thats ballsy

Edited by bhawks489
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12 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Well duh the values make it worth it to keep hill.

 

Try doing that straight up with no dollar value or round value....thats ballsy

 

Yes, that would be very ballsy to do it straight up. Even with the values, there's a risk in doing it and I think there would be many in auction format who would stick with the more-expensive AB...but we shall see what happens :) 

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Hmmm ty or hill? I'll have this choice at the 2/3 turn. Seems to me that Hill is everything Ty is but with a healthy exciting quarterback

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35 minutes ago, montgrove said:

Hmmm ty or hill? I'll have this choice at the 2/3 turn. Seems to me that Hill is everything Ty is but with a healthy exciting quarterback

Tyreek Hill easy choice!

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I was aiming for Doug Baldwin in the early 3rd, but his bum knee has changed my mind. I will be taking Tyreek instead. Looks like they will feed him plenty this year.

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I'm watching the preseason game against the Bears and I would not be surprised at all if Hill increases his catch total into the 80s or even 90s this year. Watching how DBs are giving him a 10 yard cushion on just about every single pass play means he is going to be open a ton regardless of his route running. 

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3 hours ago, montgrove said:

Hmmm ty or hill? I'll have this choice at the 2/3 turn. Seems to me that Hill is everything Ty is but with a healthy exciting quarterback

 

Disagree.

 

Tyreek's Ceiling

Last year looks to be close to Tyreek's ceiling given his awesome efficiency and the addition of Watkins.  It's hard for me to project Hill to either: (1) become even more efficient; or (2) significantly increase his targets given the addition of Watkins.

 

Thus, Tyreek's ceiling is likely around 80/1200/8.

 

TY Hilton

We've already seen Hilton put up a 90/1450/6 season with a healthy Luck and thus that looks like his ceiling with a healthy Luck + little target competition.  I would even say that Hilton's floor is pretty close to Tyreek's production from last year provided you have faith in Luck staying healthy the entire year.

 

Amari Cooper

I would even argue that Amari should be ranked above Tyreek as well. Assuming that you believe that Amari's 2017 was an outlier, his 2016 season was right around Tyreek's ceiling as he put up 83/1153/5.  I think it's reasonable to have 80/1000/5 as a baseline for Amari plus he has the potential to significantly top that line with Crabtree leaving and the new offensive system.

 

Conclusion

I like Tyreek a lot but I think that his preseason performances are inflating his value and his upside is being overblown.

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19 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Disagree.

 

Tyreek's Ceiling

Last year looks to be close to Tyreek's ceiling given his awesome efficiency and the addition of Watkins.  It's hard for me to project Hill to either: (1) become even more efficient; or (2) significantly increase his targets given the addition of Watkins.

 

Thus, Tyreek's ceiling is likely around 80/1200/8.

 

TY Hilton

We've already seen Hilton put up a 90/1450/6 season with a healthy Luck and thus that looks like his ceiling with a healthy Luck + little target competition.  I would even say that Hilton's floor is pretty close to Tyreek's production from last year provided you have faith in Luck staying healthy the entire year.

 

Amari Cooper

I would even argue that Amari should be ranked above Tyreek as well. Assuming that you believe that Amari's 2017 was an outlier, his 2016 season was right around Tyreek's ceiling as he put up 83/1153/5.  I think it's reasonable to have 80/1000/5 as a baseline for Amari plus he has the potential to significantly top that line with Crabtree leaving and the new offensive system.

 

Conclusion

I like Tyreek a lot but I think that his preseason performances are inflating his value and his upside is being overblown.

Dude is pound 4 pound one of the best football players in the nfl. Line him up at rb or wr he would excel. I don’t get how his preseason performances are inflating when DBs are giving him 10 yard split. For Christ sakes, give this guy a basketball he’ll give you a windmill dunk or a jelly layup with a eurostep. Back to the subject of the 10 yard split, the reason these DB are giving him cushion because they respect his speed so much there going to openly hand him hitches,curls,slants,in, and out, but won’t give him post, corners, or streaks. I’m not saying I’m an expert but I know my football facts. You guys are just stating opinions by backing it up with opinions and stats. Not hating on stats but for stats to become stats they have to become facts before a stat

Edited by Watitdookie

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22 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Disagree.

 

Tyreek's Ceiling

Last year looks to be close to Tyreek's ceiling given his awesome efficiency and the addition of Watkins.  It's hard for me to project Hill to either: (1) become even more efficient; or (2) significantly increase his targets given the addition of Watkins.

 

Thus, Tyreek's ceiling is likely around 80/1200/8.

 

TY Hilton

We've already seen Hilton put up a 90/1450/6 season with a healthy Luck and thus that looks like his ceiling with a healthy Luck + little target competition.  I would even say that Hilton's floor is pretty close to Tyreek's production from last year provided you have faith in Luck staying healthy the entire year.

 

Amari Cooper

I would even argue that Amari should be ranked above Tyreek as well. Assuming that you believe that Amari's 2017 was an outlier, his 2016 season was right around Tyreek's ceiling as he put up 83/1153/5.  I think it's reasonable to have 80/1000/5 as a baseline for Amari plus he has the potential to significantly top that line with Crabtree leaving and the new offensive system.

 

Conclusion

I like Tyreek a lot but I think that his preseason performances are inflating his value and his upside is being overblown.

Sophomore year is a ceiling with an overrated Watkins added and different QB? I disagree. Mahommes is Locked onto tyreek and the KC defense is trash. I'm guessing more yards with 8-10 tds

Edited by bhawks489
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Watkins presence is not overrated, dude can ball but I agree with you. I fairly think they both compliment each other quite well. We didn’t even mention Kelce who’s a stud

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16 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Sophomore year is a ceiling with an overrated Watkins added and different QB? I disagree. Mahommes is Locked onto tyreek and the KC defense is trash. I'm guessing more yards with 8-10 tds

 

He either needs to become more efficient or increase his targets to outproduce last season.  Which do you predict happens?

 

Im not even saying that I believe in Watkins but it’s hard for me to imagine him increasing his targets when KC just paid $16/year you Watkins while keeping everyone else.  Plus it’s almosy impossible for him to be any more efficient than he was last year

Edited by Chwf3rd

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7 minutes ago, Watitdookie said:

Watkins presence is not overrated, dude can ball but I agree with you. I fairly think they both compliment each other quite well. We didn’t even mention Kelce who’s a stud

Kelce is irrelevant because he's already been competing with Hill for targets and Kelce has proven to be around a 1,000 yards and between 4-8 TD guy. Watkins presence on the KC offense is vastly overrated because no one knows how he will be utilized or how many targets he'll get. People are assuming Watkins presence means less targets for Hill which could could easily spin the other way (less coverage for Hill, less safety help against Hill, etc.).

 

The point is with a new QB and new OC there is no way to know what this offense will look like. However, I will bet on Tyreek's talent every time and the current passing game seems to be focused on him. 

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1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

He either needs to become more efficient or increase his targets to outproduce last season.  Which do you predict happens?

I think he's almost guaranteed to get more targets. Not sure how the efficiency will end up. 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

I think he's almost guaranteed to get more targets. Not sure how the efficiency will end up. 

 

How do you think his targets increase when the team added Watkins at $16/per while keeping everyone else around? Even if you hate Watkins he’s guaranteed to draw significantly more targets than KC’s WR2 last year.

 

Only way I see it happening is: (1) KC’s passing attempts increase significantly overall; or (2) Kelce is in for a very, very disappointing season.

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7 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Kelce is irrelevant because he's already been competing with Hill for targets and Kelce has proven to be around a 1,000 yards and between 4-8 TD guy. Watkins presence on the KC offense is vastly overrated because no one knows how he will be utilized or how many targets he'll get. People are assuming Watkins presence means less targets for Hill which could could easily spin the other way (less coverage for Hill, less safety help against Hill, etc.).

 

The point is with a new QB and new OC there is no way to know what this offense will look like. However, I will bet on Tyreek's talent every time and the current passing game seems to be focused on him. 

I agree with your post, but put Watkins in teams that need Wr badly would make his ADP would soar tremendously to the point he would be in the same tier of 2-4 rd WR going in their respective picks. The scheme and personnel they got in KC means they don’t have to cater or force feed watkins. You can’t say Kelce is irrelevant because without him there’s no breakout season for Tyreek. Without Kelce the entire defense focus is on Tyreek and hunt.

Edited by Watitdookie

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Tyreek Hill is one of the rare receivers with full blown jets to succeed and it’s amazing to watch. 

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This is better with multiple years of data.  I just pulled it together using last year's numbers.

 

Career yards per target is a good metric. 

Career TDs per target is a good metric.

Total targets is pretty much the only metric we're guessing for draft day.

 

Use Gronk and AB as baselines.

Tyreek's volume is going up.  Mahomes targeted the crap out of him during preseason.  Watkins is new and doesn't know the routes yet.

Hill's ceiling is top 5.  His floor is about the same as last year.

 

Chris Godwin has me drooling.  He started breaking out late last year.

Tyrell Williams......gaahhhhhh..........

Who uses actual data for selecting12th round draft picks?  That's supposed to come off some useless list of magical guesses.

 

 

 

 

 

Player    TAR    Yards per Target    TDs per Target
JuJu Smith-Schuster    79    11.60759494    0.088607595
Tyreek Hill    105    11.26666667    0.066666667
Ted Ginn    70    11.24285714    0.057142857
Tyrell Williams    69    10.55072464    0.057971014
Rob Gronkowski    105    10.32380952    0.076190476
Marvin Jones    107    10.28971963    0.08411215
Kenny Golladay    48    9.9375    0.0625
Julio Jones    148    9.756756757    0.02027027
Chris Godwin    55    9.545454545    0.018181818
Brandin Cooks    114    9.49122807    0.061403509
Antonio Brown    163    9.404907975    0.055214724
Vernon Davis    69    9.391304348    0.043478261
Hunter Henry    62    9.338709677    0.064516129
Cooper Kupp    94    9.244680851    0.053191489
Robert Woods    85    9.188235294    0.058823529
Marquise Goodwin    105    9.161904762    0.019047619
Rishard Matthews    87    9.137931034    0.045977011
Ed Dickson    48    9.104166667    0.020833333
Keelan Cole    83    9.012048193    0.036144578
Adam Thielen    142    8.985915493    0.028169014
Stefon Diggs    95    8.936842105    0.084210526
Albert Wilson    62    8.935483871    0.048387097
Kelvin Benjamin    78    8.871794872    0.038461538
T.Y. Hilton    109    8.862385321    0.036697248
Ryan Grant    65    8.815384615    0.061538462
Paul Richardson    80    8.7875    0.075
Keenan Allen    159    8.761006289    0.037735849
Travis Benjamin    65    8.723076923    0.061538462
Sterling Shepard    84    8.702380952    0.023809524
Allen Hurns    56    8.642857143    0.035714286
Doug Baldwin    116    8.543103448    0.068965517
Travis Kelce    122    8.508196721    0.06557377
Sammy Watkins    70    8.471428571    0.114285714
Will Fuller    50    8.46    0.14
Golden Tate    120    8.358333333    0.041666667
Michael Thomas    149    8.355704698    0.033557047
J.J. Nelson    61    8.327868852    0.032786885
Donte Moncrief    47    8.319148936    0.042553191
Robby Anderson    114    8.254385965    0.061403509
George Kittle    63    8.174603175    0.031746032
Josh Bellamy    46    8.173913043    0.02173913
T.J. Jones    49    8.142857143    0.020408163
Mike Wallace    92    8.130434783    0.043478261
Austin Hooper    65    8.092307692    0.046153846
Nelson Agholor    95    8.084210526    0.084210526
Deonte Thompson    69    8.072463768    0.028985507
Kenny Stills    105    8.066666667    0.057142857
Jared Cook    86    8    0.023255814
Jermaine Kearse    102    7.941176471    0.049019608
DeAndre Hopkins    174    7.913793103    0.074712644
Dontrelle Inman    44    7.818181818    0.022727273
Tyler Lockett    71    7.816901408    0.028169014
Cameron Brate    77    7.675324675    0.077922078
Danny Amendola    86    7.662790698    0.023255814
Jamison Crowder    103    7.660194175    0.029126214
Adam Humphries    83    7.602409639    0.012048193
Devin Funchess    111    7.567567568    0.072072072
Davante Adams    117    7.564102564    0.085470085
Charles Clay    74    7.540540541    0.027027027
A.J. Green    143    7.538461538    0.055944056
Zach Ertz    110    7.490909091    0.072727273
Pierre Garcon    67    7.462686567    0
Chris Hogan    59    7.440677966    0.084745763
DeSean Jackson    90    7.422222222    0.033333333
Taylor Gabriel    51    7.411764706    0.019607843
Mike Evans    136    7.382352941    0.036764706
Mohamed Sanu    96    7.322916667    0.052083333
Marqise Lee    96    7.3125    0.03125
Terrance Williams    78    7.282051282    0
Delanie Walker    111    7.27027027    0.027027027
Larry Fitzgerald    161    7.180124224    0.037267081
Martavis Bryant    84    7.178571429    0.035714286
Trent Taylor    60    7.166666667    0.033333333
Randall Cobb    92    7.097826087    0.043478261
Amari Cooper    96    7.083333333    0.072916667
Seth Roberts    65    7    0.015384615
Jermaine Gresham    46    7    0.043478261
DeVante Parker    96    6.979166667    0.010416667
Jaron Brown    69    6.913043478    0.057971014
Seth DeValve    58    6.810344828    0.017241379
Eric Decker    83    6.78313253    0.012048193
Demaryius Thomas    140    6.778571429    0.035714286
Kendall Wright    91    6.747252747    0.010989011
Eric Ebron    86    6.674418605    0.046511628
Dede Westbrook    51    6.647058824    0.019607843
Marcedes Lewis    48    6.625    0.104166667
Benjamin Watson    79    6.607594937    0.050632911
Stephen Anderson    52    6.576923077    0.019230769
Alshon Jeffery    120    6.575    0.075
Kyle Rudolph    81    6.567901235    0.098765432
Tyler Higbee    45    6.555555556    0.022222222
Tyler Kroft    62    6.516129032    0.112903226
Martellus Bennett    44    6.5    0
Jason Witten    87    6.436781609    0.057471264
Josh Doctson    78    6.435897436    0.076923077
David Njoku    60    6.433333333    0.066666667
Jack Doyle    108    6.388888889    0.037037037
Dez Bryant    132    6.348484848    0.045454545
Torrey Smith    68    6.323529412    0.029411765
Evan Engram    115    6.27826087    0.052173913
Julius Thomas    62    6.258064516    0.048387097
Bennie Fowler    56    6.25    0.053571429
Rashard Higgins    50    6.24    0.04
Brandon LaFell    89    6.157303371    0.033707865
Jarvis Landry    161    6.130434783    0.055900621
Michael Crabtree    101    6.118811881    0.079207921
Jeremy Maclin    72    6.111111111    0.041666667
Antonio Gates    52    6.076923077    0.057692308
Emmanuel Sanders    92    6.032608696    0.02173913
Kenny Britt    43    5.953488372    0.046511628
Jesse James    63    5.904761905    0.047619048
Ricardo Louis    61    5.852459016    0
Bruce Ellington    57    5.789473684    0.035087719
Roger Lewis    72    5.777777778    0.027777778
Corey Davis    65    5.769230769    0
Jordy Nelson    88    5.477272727    0.068181818
John Brown    55    5.436363636    0.054545455
Jimmy Graham    96    5.416666667    0.104166667
Aldrick Robinson    48    5.416666667    0.041666667
Corey Coleman    58    5.25862069    0.034482759
Cole Beasley    63    4.984126984    0.063492063
Austin Seferian-Jenkins    74    4.824324324    0.040540541
Zay Jones    74    4.27027027    0.027027027
Kamar Aiken    44    3.022727273    0

 

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13 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

How do you think his targets increase when the team added Watkins at $16/per while keeping everyone else around? Even if you hate Watkins he’s guaranteed to draw significantly more targets than KC’s WR2 last year.

 

Only way I see it happening is: (1) KC’s passing attempts increase significantly overall; or (2) Kelce is in for a very, very disappointing season.

KC threw the ball 540 times last year. If you simply total up all the targets the players currently on the team had last season (including the 70 Watkins had) they had 513 targets last year. In other words they can actually throw the ball less and Tyreek can still improve his numbers. 

 

The Chiefs had 119 targets depart from last year (22.5% share) so even if you give Watkins 100 of those (which I doubt he gets) that means Hill can still improve by 19 targets even if the Chiefs keep the status quo from last season in terms of pass attempts. 

 

So far this preseason Mahomes has thrown the ball 43 times and targeted Hill on 14 of those passes. That's a 32.6% target share for Hill. Obviously an extremely small sample size, Watkins hasn't been with the team long, etc. but it shows that Mahomes is locked in on Hill and their rapport cannot be denied. 

 

So as for your points:

(1) KC's passing attempts do not need to increase significantly if anything they can stay the same or even decrease a bit.

(2) Kelce is irrelevant to this discussion.

Edited by munde53

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Pre-season targets listed below.

Hill will some good games.  He will also have some GREAT games.

 

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs - show all

Tyreek Hill 13 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 2
Preseason Wk 2 3
Preseason Wk 3 8
 
Travis Kelce 8 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 3
Preseason Wk 2 3
Preseason Wk 3 2
 
Kareem Hunt 6 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 1
Preseason Wk 2 4
Preseason Wk 3 1
 
Sammy Watkins 6 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 -
Preseason Wk 2 3
Preseason Wk 3 3
 
Chris Conley 4 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 -
Preseason Wk 2 -
Preseason Wk 3 4
 
Spencer Ware 3 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 -
Preseason Wk 2 -
Preseason Wk 3 3
 
Demarcus Robinson 1 +
 
Preseason Wk 1 -
Preseason Wk 2 -
Preseason Wk 3 1
 
De'Anthony Thomas 1 +
Edited by jmausen

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45 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

How do you think his targets increase when the team added Watkins at $16/per while keeping everyone else around? Even if you hate Watkins he’s guaranteed to draw significantly more targets than KC’s WR2 last year.

 

Only way I see it happening is: (1) KC’s passing attempts increase significantly overall; or (2) Kelce is in for a very, very disappointing season.

Well the KC defense seems really s---y so I can see more pass attempts. Albert Wilson is gone too so I can see Watkins getting his share 

 

 

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This video was created before last season but it illustrates why it was clear he was going to breakout last season. It also illustrates how Smith's limitations as a deep ball passer limited Hill's production (at least as a rookie). The video also illustrates just how much defenses respect Hill's skills and how many yards they are simply willing to just "give" him so they do not get burned by a long TD. As pointed out in the video, Hill had a very limited route tree as a rookie and we saw it grow as a sophomore. In his third season Hill has a QB who in theory matches his skill set and has improved his overall football IQ/route running ability. There is still room for Hill to grow and he has not hit his ceiling as a player. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, gimme the ball said:

 

If you think that Amari Cooper is going to have a better season than Tyreek Hill, you need your head checked.

 

Great counter argument!

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

KC threw the ball 540 times last year. If you simply total up all the targets the players currently on the team had last season (including the 70 Watkins had) they had 513 targets last year. In other words they can actually throw the ball less and Tyreek can still improve his numbers. 

 

The Chiefs had 119 targets depart from last year (22.5% share) so even if you give Watkins 100 of those (which I doubt he gets) that means Hill can still improve by 19 targets even if the Chiefs keep the status quo from last season in terms of pass attempts. 

 

So far this preseason Mahomes has thrown the ball 43 times and targeted Hill on 14 of those passes. That's a 32.6% target share for Hill. Obviously an extremely small sample size, Watkins hasn't been with the team long, etc. but it shows that Mahomes is locked in on Hill and their rapport cannot be denied. 

 

So as for your points:

(1) KC's passing attempts do not need to increase significantly if anything they can stay the same or even decrease a bit.

(2) Kelce is irrelevant to this discussion.

 

Good write up.

 

I think you’re underestimating Watkins’ target numbers (I think he’ll get around 90 - 100) and you’re also leaving out the tertiary players like the new WR3 and WR4 who’ll receive bumps as well.

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29 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

Good write up.

 

I think you’re underestimating Watkins’ target numbers (I think he’ll get around 90 - 100) and you’re also leaving out the tertiary players like the new WR3 and WR4 who’ll receive bumps as well.

So you agree that Watkins will at most have 100 targets (which I don't think he will, I think 70-80 is realistic) and I gave around 100 targets to the WR3 and WR4. That still leaves 65 targets for Hunt and 120 or so for Kelce. Assuming KC throws the ball the same amount as last year (540 times) that still leaves 155 targets available for Hill.

 

Again, this is from preseason which I admit means nothing but Mahomes targeted Hill on 32.6% of his throws so far. If Mahomes throws even 500 times this year, at that target share Hill would get 163 targets.

 

I don't think he's in line for 163 or even 155 targets but I think 120 or so is reasonable. 

 

His arrow is still pointing up.

Edited by munde53
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