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Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

So you agree that Watkins will at most have 100 targets and I gave around 100 targets to the WR3 and WR4. That still leaves 65 targets for Hunt and 120 or so for Kelce. Assuming KC throws the ball the same amount as last year (540 times) that still leaves 155 targets available for Hill.

 

Again, this is from preseason which I admit means nothing but Mahomes targeted Hill on 32.6% of his throws so far. If Mahomes throws even 500 times this year, at that target share Hill would get 163 targets. 

 

I don't think he's in line for 163 or even 155 targets but I think 120 or so is reasonable. 

 

His arrow is still pointing up.

+1 for the write up 

-1 for not including a pun at the end with the stadium hill plays in :lol:

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

So you agree that Watkins will at most have 100 targets (which I don't think he will, I think 70-80 is realistic) and I gave around 100 targets to the WR3 and WR4. That still leaves 65 targets for Hunt and 120 or so for Kelce. Assuming KC throws the ball the same amount as last year (540 times) that still leaves 155 targets available for Hill.

 

Again, this is from preseason which I admit means nothing but Mahomes targeted Hill on 32.6% of his throws so far. If Mahomes throws even 500 times this year, at that target share Hill would get 163 targets.

 

I don't think he's in line for 163 or even 155 targets but I think 120 or so is reasonable. 

 

His arrow is still pointing up.

 

On the surface something seems wrong with that math when Albert Wilson is the only significant departing player and they added Watkins.  If I have time later I’ll try the numbers myself 

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

So you agree that Watkins will at most have 100 targets (which I don't think he will, I think 70-80 is realistic) and I gave around 100 targets to the WR3 and WR4. That still leaves 65 targets for Hunt and 120 or so for Kelce. Assuming KC throws the ball the same amount as last year (540 times) that still leaves 155 targets available for Hill.

 

Again, this is from preseason which I admit means nothing but Mahomes targeted Hill on 32.6% of his throws so far. If Mahomes throws even 500 times this year, at that target share Hill would get 163 targets.

 

I don't think he's in line for 163 or even 155 targets but I think 120 or so is reasonable. 

 

His arrow is still pointing up.

Last year Hunt/Tyreek/Kelce accounted for 55% of the targets and you think this year they will account for over 61%?

With Watkins present? 

 

Are you also assuming that Mahomes will be as efficient as Alex Smith was last year?

Because Im guessing that Mahomes will have a significantly lower completion rate, and throw way more than the 5 picks Smith had, resulting in way more aborted possesions than last season.

Edited by cs3

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18 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Last year Hunt/Tyreek/Kelce accounted for 55% of the targets and you think this year they will account for over 61%?

With Watkins present? 

 

Are you also assuming that Mahomes will be as efficient as Alex Smith was last year?

Because Im guessing that Mahomes will have a significantly lower completion rate, and throw way more than the 5 picks Smith had, resulting in way more aborted possesions than last season.

Hill will benefit from Mahomes. He may not get as many catches but deep routes should be aplenty. Hurts Kelce and Hunt more. 

Edited by Travdaddy10

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I'm not buying that Mahomes is a big upgrade for Hill this year. Smith was actually pretty awesome last year, even throwing the ball deep.

How accurate do you expect Mahomes to be?

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I don't think Mahomes will be a better QB than Smith. Its just KC defense is likely to suck again and the Cheifs will find themselves behind even more often. Mahomes lead offense might have more stalled drives. Yet also more pass centic garbage time drives because the offense is less efficient.

 

KC was 17th in Pass Attempts last year. Could end up top 5 in pass attempts. Which has nothing to do with Mahomes being better

Edited by Slatykamora

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

 

2017 Targets (ones underlined are departed)

 

TE1: Travis Kelce - 122 targets, 24%

WR1: Tyreek Hill - 105 targets, 21%

RB1: Kareem Hunt - 63 targets, 12%

WR2: Albert Wilson - 62 targets, 12%

WR3: Demarcus Robinson - 39 targets, 8%

TE2: Demetrius Harris - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Charcandrick West - 34 targets, 7%

WR4/5: De'Anthony Thomas - 16 targets, 3%

**WR4/5: Chris Conley - 16 targets, 3%** (he only played 5 games, prorated to 16 games his targets come out to 51, 10%)

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest: 35 targets, 7%

 

2018 Projections

 

TE: Travis Kelce (keep constant) - 122 targets, 24%

RB1: Kareem Hunt (keep constant) - 63 targets, 12%

WR3: Chris Conley: I took Conley's targets per game when he operated as the WR3 during the first 5 games (3.2) and averaged them with Robinson's targets per game when he was the WR3 thereafter (3.71) and prorated them over 16 games - 55 targets, 11%

TE2: Demetrius Harris (kept constant) - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Spencer Ware (substituted West's targets) - 34 targets, 7%

WR 4/5: De'Anthony Thomas (seems like enough of a unique player to keep his targets constant) - 16 targets, 3%

WR 4/5: Demarcus Robinson: I took his targets per game from the first 5 games when Conley was health and he operated as the WR4 and prorated them over 16 games - 10 targets, 2%

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest (kept constant): 35 targets, 7%

 

Leftover: 135 targets, 27%

 

CONCLUSION

 

If we keep things essentially constant from last year, there are only 135 targets available for both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins to split.  Obviously I don't think there will actually only be 135 targets for those two and other players on the team will see reduced targets to accommodate them.  However, it does show that it will be extremely difficult for Tyreek Hill attract more targets this year than last year.

 

My prior point was that last year's production is essentially Hill's ceiling unless he can: (1) increase his efficiency; or (2) increase his targets.  It is seemingly impossible for Tyreek Hill to increase his efficiency from last year given that he was historically efficient and most people on here agreed with that statement earlier.  Regarding the 2nd option, I think the projections show that it will also be extremely difficult for Hill to see more target as well.

 

EDIT: I messed up the numbers a little bit by not accounting for Mahommes' numbers in Week 17 but that's still not a substantial enough of a difference to make a serious dense and refute the point that it will be very, very hard for Tyreek to increase his targets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Chwf3rd
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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

+1 for the write up 

-1 for not including a pun at the end with the stadium hill plays in :lol:

You can say his arrowhead is pointing up but that’s a bit odd don’t ya think?

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10 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

2017 Targets (ones underlined are departed)

 

TE1: Travis Kelce - 122 targets, 24%

WR1: Tyreek Hill - 105 targets, 21%

RB1: Kareem Hunt - 63 targets, 12%

WR2: Albert Wilson - 62 targets, 12%

WR3: Demarcus Robinson - 39 targets, 8%

TE2: Demetrius Harris - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Charcandrick West - 34 targets, 7%

WR4/5: De'Anthony Thomas - 16 targets, 3%

**WR4/5: Chris Conley - 16 targets, 3%** (he only played 5 games, prorated to 16 games his targets come out to 51, 10%)

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest: 35 targets, 7%

 

2018 Projections

 

TE: Travis Kelce (keep constant) - 122 targets, 24%

RB1: Kareem Hunt (keep constant) - 63 targets, 12%

WR3: Chris Conley: I took Conley's targets per game when he operated as the WR3 during the first 5 games (3.2) and averaged them with Robinson's targets per game when he was the WR3 thereafter (3.71) and prorated them over 16 games - 55 targets, 11%

TE2: Demetrius Harris (kept constant) - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Spencer Ware (substituted West's targets) - 34 targets, 7%

WR 4/5: De'Anthony Thomas (seems like enough of a unique player to keep his targets constant) - 16 targets, 3%

WR 4/5: Demarcus Robinson: I took his targets per game from the first 5 games when Conley was health and he operated as the WR4 and prorated them over 16 games - 10 targets, 2%

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest (kept constant): 35 targets, 7%

 

Leftover: 135 targets, 27%

 

CONCLUSION

 

If we keep things essentially constant from last year, there are only 135 targets available for both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins to split.  Obviously I don't think there will actually only be 135 targets for those two and other players on the team will see reduced targets to accommodate them.  However, it does show that it will be extremely difficult for Tyreek Hill attract more targets this year than last year.

 

My prior point was that last year's production is essentially Hill's ceiling unless he can: (1) increase his efficiency; or (2) increase his targets.  It is seemingly impossible for Tyreek Hill to increase his efficiency from last year given that he was historically efficient and most people on here agreed with that statement earlier.  Regarding the 2nd option, I think the projections show that it will also be extremely difficult for Hill to see more target as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are talking about a completly different QB. Target shares can be thrown out the window honestly. A young QB like him is more likely to tunnel vision than distbute the ball around.  Is it going to lead to a lower completion percentage and more INTs? Probably, but also likely to throw total passes/Garbage time.

Edited by Slatykamora

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You can say his arrowhead is pointing up but that’s a bit odd don’t ya think?

Yeah I'm sure something may have worked there :lol:

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17 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

2017 Targets (ones underlined are departed)

 

TE1: Travis Kelce - 122 targets, 24%

WR1: Tyreek Hill - 105 targets, 21%

RB1: Kareem Hunt - 63 targets, 12%

WR2: Albert Wilson - 62 targets, 12%

WR3: Demarcus Robinson - 39 targets, 8%

TE2: Demetrius Harris - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Charcandrick West - 34 targets, 7%

WR4/5: De'Anthony Thomas - 16 targets, 3%

**WR4/5: Chris Conley - 16 targets, 3%** (he only played 5 games, prorated to 16 games his targets come out to 51, 10%)

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest: 35 targets, 7%

 

2018 Projections

 

TE: Travis Kelce (keep constant) - 122 targets, 24%

RB1: Kareem Hunt (keep constant) - 63 targets, 12%

WR3: Chris Conley: I took Conley's targets per game when he operated as the WR3 during the first 5 games (3.2) and averaged them with Robinson's targets per game when he was the WR3 thereafter (3.71) and prorated them over 16 games - 55 targets, 11%

TE2: Demetrius Harris (kept constant) - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Spencer Ware (substituted West's targets) - 34 targets, 7%

WR 4/5: De'Anthony Thomas (seems like enough of a unique player to keep his targets constant) - 16 targets, 3%

WR 4/5: Demarcus Robinson: I took his targets per game from the first 5 games when Conley was health and he operated as the WR4 and prorated them over 16 games - 10 targets, 2%

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest (kept constant): 35 targets, 7%

 

Leftover: 135 targets, 27%

 

CONCLUSION

 

If we keep things essentially constant from last year, there are only 135 targets available for both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins to split.  Obviously I don't think there will actually only be 135 targets for those two and other players on the team will see reduced targets to accommodate them.  However, it does show that it will be extremely difficult for Tyreek Hill attract more targets this year than last year.

 

My prior point was that last year's production is essentially Hill's ceiling unless he can: (1) increase his efficiency; or (2) increase his targets.  It is seemingly impossible for Tyreek Hill to increase his efficiency from last year given that he was historically efficient and most people on here agreed with that statement earlier.  Regarding the 2nd option, I think the projections show that it will also be extremely difficult for Hill to see more target as well.

 

EDIT: I messed up the numbers a little bit by not accounting for Mahommes' numbers in Week 17 but that's still not a substantial enough of a difference to make a serious dense and refute the point that it will be very, very hard for Tyreek to increase his targets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This makes no sense.

 

And how can you completely ignore the combination of 105 (Hill last year) + 62 (WR2 last year)? That is 167 targets there. And this is also assuming that the pass attempts are not going to go up and Kelce will still hog as many as he did last year, when Smith was always known to shoot for the TE, whereas we have no idea if Mahomes will do the same. 

 

I understand why people put these statistics together but they always just look like they're being pulled out of a festering butthole.

 

We know absolutely nothing about this situation. The offense is going to be catered to the new QB's strengths and not the old QB. 

Edited by oliminator123

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

This makes no sense. Why would the WR3 targets go up by 14 when they just signed a big name like Watkins? 

 

 

Read the explanation.  Conley was the WR3 for the first 5 games and Robinson was the WR3 for the final 11 games.  Thus I took Conley's targets per game for those 5 games and Robinson's targets per game for the final 11 games and averaged them.

3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

And how can you completely ignore the combination of 105 (Hill last year) + 62 (WR2 last year) + 14 (the random extra you gave to the WR3)? And this is also assuming that the pass attempts are not going to go up?

 

1. I left Hill (WR1) and Watkins (WR2) out of the projection so you could see how much was leftover for them both.  See the section titled "Leftover: 135 targets, 27%"

5 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

I understand why people put these statistics together but they always just look like they're being pulled out of a festering butthole.

 

I messed up the math a little bit in that I forgot to account for Week 16 in which Mahommes was the QB and Kelce + Tyreek Hill were injured.  Including that would make the projection more favorable towards Hill but it still wouldnt increase the available targets by a huge amount.  Thus, the point still remains that it will be difficult for Tyreek Hill to increase his targets barring a big change to the offensive scheme or a big increase in overall passing attempts.

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

Read the explanation.  Conley was the WR3 for the first 5 games and Robinson was the WR3 for the final 11 games.  Thus I took Conley's targets per game for those 5 games and Robinson's targets per game for the final 11 games and averaged them.

 

1. I left Hill (WR1) and Watkins (WR2) out of the projection so you could see how much was leftover for them both.  See the section titled "Leftover: 135 targets, 27%"

 

I messed up the math a little bit in that I forgot to account for Week 16 in which Mahommes was the QB and Kelce + Tyreek Hill were injured.  Including that would make the projection more favorable towards Hill but it still wouldnt increase the available targets by a huge amount.  Thus, the point still remains that it will be difficult for Tyreek Hill to increase his targets barring a big change to the offensive scheme or a big increase in overall passing attempts.

I edited my post, I missed the one part. I still dont understand how you got 135 from 105 + 62. 

 

I don't understand how it is fair for you to assume the pass attempt count will go down but unfair for us to assume it will go up, when all signs point to it going up.

 

If the expectation is that the defense is gonna be bad, that means high scoring games. 

If the expectation is that Mahomes is going to throw a lot of INTs, that means the opponent likely gets more scoring opportunities meaning playing catch up. 

If the expectation is that Mahomes has a big arm and can sling the ball, that means the offense should take advantage of that. 

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1 minute ago, oliminator123 said:

I edited my post, I missed the one part. I still dont understand how you got 135 from 105 + 62. 

 

 

I ****** up the math a little.  The "Ancillary Pieces" targets should probably be decreased a little and everyone's target % should be decreased around 1% with the exception of Tyreek and Kelce because I forgot to account for the game that Mahommes started and Kelce + Hill sat out.  

 

Nonetheless, even accounting for those errors it shouldn't greatly affect the overall targets available.

6 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

I don't understand how it is fair for you to assume the pass attempt count will go down but unfair for us to assume it will go up, when all signs point to it going up.

 

Again, I mistakenly calculated the overall attempts based on Alex Smith's attempts (505) instead of the total team attempts (540) because I forgot to account for the Mahommes game in Week 17.  I was trying to keep the passing attempts constant, not decrease them.

9 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

 

I don't understand how it is fair for you to assume the pass attempt count will go down but unfair for us to assume it will go up, when all signs point to it going up.

 

If the expectation is that the defense is gonna be bad, that means high scoring games. 

If the expectation is that Mahomes is going to throw a lot of INTs, that means the opponent likely gets more scoring opportunities meaning playing catch up. 

If the expectation is that Mahomes has a big arm and can sling the ball, that means the offense should take advantage of that. 

 

The passing attempts could very well go up and that would provide an avenue for Tyreek to increase his targets.

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1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I ****** up the math a little.  The "Ancillary Pieces" targets should probably be decreased a little and everyone's target % should be decreased around 1% with the exception of Tyreek and Kelce because I forgot to account for the game that Mahommes started and Kelce + Hill sat out.  

 

Nonetheless, even accounting for those errors it shouldn't greatly affect the overall targets available.

 

Again, I mistakenly calculated the overall attempts based on Alex Smith's attempts (505) instead of the total team attempts (540) because I forgot to account for the Mahommes game in Week 17.  I was trying to keep the passing attempts constant, not decrease them.

 

The passing attempts could very well go up and that would provide an avenue for Tyreek to increase his targets.

I understand. 

 

I still think it is unfair to assume the target count will remain constant. I see Kelces numbers dipping and Hill + Watkins seeing an uptick, as well as an overall uptick in pass attempts across the team. 

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Alex Smith had 18 less pass attempts than Bortles last year.  People that are high on Hill figure going from an ultra efficient QB with a good defense to a gunslinger with a crappy defense will be a net positive for Hill.

 

Most people that have bought Hill figure he’ll again finish top10.

 

For fantasy purposes it’s a question of this guy or that guy.  The other option might be Baldwin or TY, both also have question marks.

 

At least with Hill the downside isn’t as great...

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Yall over thinking this.

 

Pat can throw it 60+ yards

Hill can out run any a CB

 

1+1=2

 

Dude is going to eat and regardless of targets, i see hill with more than a few monster games

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1 minute ago, Elviplatinum said:

Yall over thinking this.

 

Pat can throw it 60+ yards

Hill can out run any a CB

 

1+1=2

 

Dude is going to eat and regardless of targets, i see hill with more than a few monster games


And a couple duds. You may call it overthinking, but this is something you have to consider - I call it thinking.

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I wouldn't want him as a #1 WR, but he is an awesome #2 WR that can win you some weeks.  He just has a lower floor than WRs going around him, but has a higher ceiling.  He will have a few duds and will win you some weeks. I think he is much better in standard than PPR though.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in KC even with that awful defense.

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12 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

Yall over thinking this.

 

Pat can throw it 60+ yards

Hill can out run any a CB

 

1+1=2

 

Dude is going to eat and regardless of targets, i see hill with more than a few monster games

Actually Pat said he threw 83 yards in college, but he can throw 80-85 yards in the air depending on wind.

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36 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

For fantasy purposes it’s a question of this guy or that guy.  The other option might be Baldwin or TY, both also have question marks.

In recent drafts and mocks Ive done (at least PPR) the more realistic question is somehting like Hill or one of CMac/AJG/Gronk/Evans. He's been going right around those guys and his auction price is shooting up into that range. Baldwin and TY haven't been in that tier from what I've been seeing the past few days.

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

I'm not buying that Mahomes is a big upgrade for Hill this year. Smith was actually pretty awesome last year, even throwing the ball deep.

How accurate do you expect Mahomes to be?

well he was pretty accurate to hill in preseason

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49 minutes ago, cs3 said:

In recent drafts and mocks Ive done (at least PPR) the more realistic question is somehting like Hill or one of CMac/AJG/Gronk/Evans. He's been going right around those guys and his auction price is shooting up into that range. Baldwin and TY haven't been in that tier from what I've been seeing the past few days.

Hes been going early third round in pretty much every draft ive done. Maybe a mid 3rd

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The last 3 YPros I've drafted (since Sun 8/26) he went:

 

2.10(#20 overall) - immediately after CMac and AJG, and immediately before Evans/Gronk

 

$37 - (McKinnon $39, Gronk $37, AJG $35, CMac $36, Baldwin $26, TY $23)

 

$38 - (Adams $41, Gronk $40, Evans $40, AJG $36, Baldwin $24, TY $26)

 

So not really even the same tier as Baldwin/TY which is what the original post was insinuating.

 

Mocks have been the same. He's consistently going off the board in the WR8 - WR11 range, and 20-24 overall from what I see this week.

Edited by cs3

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