Corleone

Tyreek Hill 2018 Outlook

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

Last year Hunt/Tyreek/Kelce accounted for 55% of the targets and you think this year they will account for over 61%?

With Watkins present? 

 

Are you also assuming that Mahomes will be as efficient as Alex Smith was last year?

Because Im guessing that Mahomes will have a significantly lower completion rate, and throw way more than the 5 picks Smith had, resulting in way more aborted possesions than last season.

Again, I do not put much stock in Watkins being present. Why do you think Watkins will get so many targets? You realize he only got 70 targets last season despite being the Rams de facto #1 WR?

 

Those three very well could account for 61% of the targets for this upcoming year. There is also a good chance that Kelce does not see his career high in targets like he did last season and his target total drops.

 

No, and he doesn't have to be. Just because Mahomes may have a lower completion rate and throw more interceptions does not mean Hill will not have more opportunities. If anything it means KC will be trailing in games and needing to throw the ball more giving Hill more opportunities. 

 

I used stats/targets from last year to show that there is room for Hill to receive more targets even if everything stayed the same. However, last year was a very different year and this year Mahomes looks like he wants to feed Hill.

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4 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

2017 Targets (ones underlined are departed)

 

TE1: Travis Kelce - 122 targets, 24%

WR1: Tyreek Hill - 105 targets, 21%

RB1: Kareem Hunt - 63 targets, 12%

WR2: Albert Wilson - 62 targets, 12%

WR3: Demarcus Robinson - 39 targets, 8%

TE2: Demetrius Harris - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Charcandrick West - 34 targets, 7%

WR4/5: De'Anthony Thomas - 16 targets, 3%

**WR4/5: Chris Conley - 16 targets, 3%** (he only played 5 games, prorated to 16 games his targets come out to 51, 10%)

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest: 35 targets, 7%

 

2018 Projections

 

TE: Travis Kelce (keep constant) - 122 targets, 24%

RB1: Kareem Hunt (keep constant) - 63 targets, 12%

WR3: Chris Conley: I took Conley's targets per game when he operated as the WR3 during the first 5 games (3.2) and averaged them with Robinson's targets per game when he was the WR3 thereafter (3.71) and prorated them over 16 games - 55 targets, 11%

TE2: Demetrius Harris (kept constant) - 35 targets, 7%

RB2: Spencer Ware (substituted West's targets) - 34 targets, 7%

WR 4/5: De'Anthony Thomas (seems like enough of a unique player to keep his targets constant) - 16 targets, 3%

WR 4/5: Demarcus Robinson: I took his targets per game from the first 5 games when Conley was health and he operated as the WR4 and prorated them over 16 games - 10 targets, 2%

Ancillary Pieces/The Rest (kept constant): 35 targets, 7%

 

Leftover: 135 targets, 27%

 

CONCLUSION

 

If we keep things essentially constant from last year, there are only 135 targets available for both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins to split.  Obviously I don't think there will actually only be 135 targets for those two and other players on the team will see reduced targets to accommodate them.  However, it does show that it will be extremely difficult for Tyreek Hill attract more targets this year than last year.

 

My prior point was that last year's production is essentially Hill's ceiling unless he can: (1) increase his efficiency; or (2) increase his targets.  It is seemingly impossible for Tyreek Hill to increase his efficiency from last year given that he was historically efficient and most people on here agreed with that statement earlier.  Regarding the 2nd option, I think the projections show that it will also be extremely difficult for Hill to see more target as well.

 

EDIT: I messed up the numbers a little bit by not accounting for Mahommes' numbers in Week 17 but that's still not a substantial enough of a difference to make a serious dense and refute the point that it will be very, very hard for Tyreek to increase his targets.

I'm guessing you didn't read the article because if you did you would see there were 119 targets that left the Chiefs last year, not the 96 you came up with.

 

I have no idea what you did with your math but losing 32 targets somewhere in your equation is not a minuscule amount and is certainly a substantial enough to make a difference. (Hill's targets + Wilson's targets = 167 - the 135 you somehow came up with as the remaining targets for Hill/Watkins = 32)

 

Again, the Chiefs have 119 targets that left from last season and the only people they really added to soak up those targets are Watkins and Damien Williams (3rd down back). I don't see why Watkins would command (much) more targets than the 70 he saw last year on the Rams.

 

All you have to do is flip Kelce's targets from last year with Hill's and all of a sudden you have increased Hill's targets to 122. Kelce's career average for targets per year is right around 107 so him dropping down to 100 or 105 targets is not unreasonable.

 

Projecting targets is a losing mans game and worthless. What I've been trying to do is show a clear path to how Hill can have an increase in targets even if the team duplicated last season.

 

Every single year #1 WR's increase their target shares on their teams across the NFL so I don't see why it's so astronomical to think Hill will increase his target share.

 

Special talents demand targets and usage and Hill is among the most special talents in the NFL.

 

 

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I think my opinion of him before and after I drafted him in the 3rd round (25th overall) is so much easier than all of this arguing.  Hill was good last year.  Hill has been good in the preseason.  I feel he'll be good again this season, which is why I took him as my WR1 in the 3rd round.  Not worried in the slightest, and it should be fun parring him with Mahomes.

Edited by KilloWertz
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just a lil' reminder/appetizer - still amazed at that one vs. Dallas as the first half expired, with the Cowboys in DEEP prevent (7:35 mark) 

 

ETA: at the 11:00 mark, his last TD of the 2017 season, courtesy of Mahomes - nice preview of what we have on tap this season -

 

 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2

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2 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

just a lil' reminder/appetizer - still amazed at that one vs. Dallas as the first half expired, with the Cowboys in DEEP prevent (7:35 mark) 

 

ETA: at the 11:00 mark, his last TD of the 2017 season, courtesy of Mahomes - nice preview of what we have on tap this season -

 

 

 

How is it possible that every one of his TD highlights is amazing? There’s not one ho-hum TD in there. 

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8 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How is it possible that every one of his TD highlights is amazing? There’s not one ho-hum TD in there. 

 

someone mentioned DJax earlier in this thread, and i feel that's a most apt comparison atm - especially given the Reid connection - but i think 'Reek has the tools to be a much more complete WR than Jackson, as he now enters his third season ... this pairing with MyHomes is gonna shoot him up to the AB/Nuk/OBJ tier, imo.    matter of fact, since 1990, only two WRs have scored more TDs in their first two years: Moss and OBJ.

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3 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

just a lil' reminder/appetizer - still amazed at that one vs. Dallas as the first half expired, with the Cowboys in DEEP prevent (7:35 mark) 

 

ETA: at the 11:00 mark, his last TD of the 2017 season, courtesy of Mahomes - nice preview of what we have on tap this season -

 

 

 

 

Good stuff (though the last TD from Mahomes, was this preseason rather than 2017). Also, that TD against Dallas still amazes me as well. I was watching that game live and couldn't believe my eyes when it happened!

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34 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

someone mentioned DJax earlier in this thread, and i feel that's a most apt comparison atm - especially given the Reid connection - but i think 'Reek has the tools to be a much more complete WR than Jackson, as he now enters his third season ... this pairing with MyHomes is gonna shoot him up to the AB/Nuk/OBJ tier, imo.    matter of fact, since 1990, only two WRs have scored more TDs in their first two years: Moss and OBJ.

 

Agreed than Tyreek is much more complete than DJax at the same stage. From the original set of posts when opening this thread, I mentioned catch percentages across first two seasons for a number of prominent WR's, and these are the numbers for both of them:

 

Tyreek Hill: 72.3%

DeSean Jackson: 52.3%

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52 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How is it possible that every one of his TD highlights is amazing? There’s not one ho-hum TD in there. 

 

Look at all of the different ways that he scores TD's. This is why TyFreak is not only fun to watch but an absolute stud. He scored TD's on deeps routes, from the slot, slants, draw plays, kick returns and yes as poster stated above, he is so efficient.

Edited by nonstopfan
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36 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Good stuff (though the last TD from Mahomes, was this preseason rather than 2017). Also, that TD against Dallas still amazes me as well. I was watching that game live and couldn't believe my eyes when it happened!

 

32 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Agreed than Tyreek is much more complete than DJax at the same stage. From the original set of posts when opening this thread, I mentioned catch percentages across first two seasons for a number of prominent WR's, and these are the numbers for both of them:

 

Tyreek Hill: 72.3%

DeSean Jackson: 52.3%

 

28 minutes ago, Corleone said:

And to add to the list of Hill's touchdowns, there was this one from late last season. It was inexplicably not ruled a touchdown (gotta love NFL officiating), but regardless, shows the amazing ability of Hill:

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article191509134.html

 

grazie, my good man ... you are truly the "Don" up in here  B)

 

Related image

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

grazie, my good man ... you are truly the "Don" up in here  B)

 

Related image

 

haha, thank you...though Tyreek is the true Don. It is from his talent on the field, that we all have a chance to appreciate excellence. 

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ADP (FFC) has now gone up to the 2nd round. People are starting to realize the talent.

Edited by nonstopfan
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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

 

Agreed than Tyreek is much more complete than DJax at the same stage. From the original set of posts when opening this thread, I mentioned catch percentages across first two seasons for a number of prominent WR's, and these are the numbers for both of them:

 

Tyreek Hill: 72.3%

DeSean Jackson: 52.3%

 

And that's it basically.  Hill has legitimate great hands.  He seems to catch everything, contested or not.  And his route running is just on-point.  He must work incredibly hard and you get the feeling he's very aware of all the doubters.  You combine all that with next level speed and quickness and you have potentially he best wr in the league, small or not.  

Edited by mikeflavaz
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45 minutes ago, mikeflavaz said:

 

And that's it basically.  Hill has legitimate great hands.  He seems to catch everything, contested or not.  And his route running is just on-point.  He must work incredibly hard and you get the feeling he's very aware of all the doubters.  You combine all that with next level speed and quickness and you have potentially he best wr in the league, small or not.  

 

Agreed with your points about his skills. Right now, I think AB is definitely the best WR in the league...but does Tyreek have the potential to grab hold of that title within a few years when (if?) Brown declines. I think so.  

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the one caveat to the kid's game ... we gotta up those RZ looks!

 

https://football.pitcherlist.com/red-zone-carriestargets-2017-review/

 

I’ve been going back and forth on Tyreek Hill all offseason. On one hand, he’s a 24-year-old freak athlete who could be hitting the prime of his career. He’s in an offense being run by a proven fantasy points producer in Andy Reid, and Hill produces explosive touchdowns on a regular basis. He was WR9 last year, even higher if you played in a league with long touchdown bonuses or return yard points. On the other hand, Tyreek received only 5% of his team’s red zone targets, 6 carries+targets total in the red zone, and scored 2 red zone fantasy points all year. Like Julio, Tyreek showed he can put up a top 10 season without red zone production. But Tyreek’s lack of red zone work might limit his upside in the end, and last year might turn out to be his ceiling.

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i'll say this for the kid, he's not lacking in confidence ... B)

 

 

"I know that we will be the best offense in this National Football League, without a doubt in my head," Hill told NFL Network's Stacey Dales on Saturday. "We got the best tight end, the best running back, we got two of the best deep-ball threat receivers -- Sammy Watkins addition, who can do it all -- great offensive line, Hall of Fame coach. So the sky's the limit for us. It's up to us to put all the pieces together."

For the sake of accuracy, the league's premier tight end still resides in New England, but Kelce is gaining on perennial All-Pro Rob Gronkowski. The larger point remains, however: The golden-armed Mahomes is set up for success with a loaded arsenal at his exposure.

That starts with Hill, a 2016 draft steal who has evolved from kick-return ace and gadget player to one of the most feared wide receivers in football.

 

"I feel like I'm the fastest -- the best at my position," Hill added. "I do everything that I'm supposed to do as a route runner. I am the fastest."

Blessed with difference-making speed to take the ball to the house or burn defenses over the top, Hill led the NFL with nine plays of 40 or more yards last year. Now that his quarterback can throw the ball from one end of the field to the other, the game's fastest receiver will draw even more attention in his third season.

The Chiefs' aerial attack is going to be nightmare fuel for defensive coordinators in 2018.

 

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Almost exactly one year ago I wrote this in the Tyreek Hill 2017 Thread....happy to have him for a 3rd Year.

On 9/7/2017 at 7:42 PM, Spina said:

Wanted to get this on record before the start of the season:

 

Tyreek is one of the most electric WR in the NFL -- literally can take any touch, from anywhere to the house. Had him last year and made sure to have him on the squad this year with Maclin gone.

 

Season Prediction: 77/1100/10-12 Total TDs, 400 rushing yards

Tonights Prediction: he goes bananas....my hopeful thinking anyway

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6 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

KC faces the #1 most difficult WR schedule, and the #1 most difficult QB schedule.

 

http://walterfootball.com/fantasy2018wrsos.php

 

That might be a problem for an inexperienced and unproven QB.

 

 

Have you seen that defense? Swiss Cheese style...

 

Garbage Air yard baby..

 

Besides... if you watch the 3rd pre season game, you'd see TyFreak getting short to intermediate routes... it seems that they are trying to grow his game in Yr 3.

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I'm not concerned about Sammy eating into Hill's production. Everyone knows Hill is the bigdog at this point, and more importantly, Hill confidently takes on that role.

 

Sammy will however demand respect from the DEF. That only helps Hill.

 

Also, not concerned about them facing the worst WR/QB schedule. Studs going to stud. We've covered this a million times. 

 

 

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On 8/28/2018 at 10:38 PM, Corleone said:

I'm optimistic enough about Hill's preseason and potential with Mahomes, that I'm putting my money where my mouth is as the thread creator. I'm keeping Tyreek Hill over Antonio Brown.

 

It's an auction keeper league, where AB would be $51 and Hill is $16. Let's do it once again Tyreek.

 

 

Similar situation here... My cool story bro:  I went RB heavy in my dynasty draft, and then flipped Fournette for Tyreek plus a 2019 1st. 

 

On 8/29/2018 at 4:36 PM, Chwf3rd said:

 

How do you think his targets increase when the team added Watkins at $16/per while keeping everyone else around? Even if you hate Watkins he’s guaranteed to draw significantly more targets than KC’s WR2 last year.

 

Only way I see it happening is: (1) KC’s passing attempts increase significantly overall; or (2) Kelce is in for a very, very disappointing season.

 

Let's not mistake Watkins for a stud WR. *When he's been on the field (big bold asterisk there) operating as the clear #1 in Buffalo (ie very little competition for targets) he had his best season. I don't doubt Watkins has the talent to put up a few big games in KC, but it's looking like he's going to be the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game. 

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54 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Most difficult schedule equals Garbage points 

 

Not the most difficult schedule in terms of opponent wins.   Most difficult schedule in terms of opponent pass defense.

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23 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

Not the most difficult schedule in terms of opponent wins.   Most difficult schedule in terms of opponent pass defense.

However it is the strength of schedule based on last year’s statistics. The NFL can change a lot in one off season. Case on point the Seahawks. Plus, the Chiefs can beat you in so many ways offensively that their opponents can’t sell out on any aspect of their offense. With a great offense the advantage more often goes to the high powered offense. I’m not putting much into SOS for this team. 

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