JeterPimpedUrGF

Daniel Murphy 2018 Outlook

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Was looking for a 2018 thread on him as I’m trying to gauge what people are making of him as I’m currently sitting on an offer that would bring him to my team. 

 

The more research I do the more concerned I am. 

 

He had microfracture surgery in the offseason and while I can’t say I recall any baseball players having it I can recall several basketball players and they were never the same. Now with that said these sports are very different and in baseball u don’t need a quick first step or to be explosive off the dribble so I don’t know how much this impacts his season. He wasn’t fleet of foot in the first place. What he is is a very consistent quality bat at a very tough position to fill. Here’s the thing though, he struggled mightily down the stretch last year while dealing with injury and it caused him to hack quite a bit. Injuries tend to do this to a player. They start expanding the strike zone to compensate for the injury. This was explained very well I believe in the Villar thread when his back injury from last season was being discussed. 

 

Is this guy guy worth investing in at this point? What’s his value in a keeper/dynasty? I feel like in redraft he’s gonna go higher than his risk should allow with not much reward. Gonna pay for his past production more so than future imo. 

Edited by JeterPimpedUrGF

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3 hours ago, JeterPimpedUrGF said:

Here’s the thing though, he struggled mightily down the stretch last year while dealing with injury and it caused him to hack quite a bit. 

 

Did he really struggle down the stretch though?  I was just looking at his splits:

 

Monthly G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
April - 105 17 36 9 1 5 26 6 12 0 0 .343 .378 .590 .969
May - 86 15 26 6 0 4 10 10 11 0 0 .302 .381 .512 .893
June - 104 21 37 9 1 5 19 9 8 1 0 .356 .405 .606 1.011
July - 81 14 25 9 0 3 18 7 12 0 0 .309 .364 .531 .895
August - 80 14 21 5 0 3 11 9 16 1 0 .263 .348 .438 .785
September - 75 12 25 5 1 3 9 11 17 0 0 .333 .419 .547 .965
October - 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .667 .667 .667 1.333

 

 

 

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Love this dude. Excellent K% and decent BB%. He misses 15 - 20 games every season, but the rest keeps him fresh. Outstanding 3rd round selection. 

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Why would you take him ADP of 36 or less in a 12 team redraft?  There are way better options at 2nd base with Murphy ranked 19th on ESPN PR for the 2017 season. Granted some of those won't qualify this year at 2nd but still.

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I’d agree with u on Gordon, I’d call Dozier a wash cause they give u different stats, I’d imagine Murphy is coming off the board first though in average draft position. I’d definitely agree with u on Jose Ramirez. Kinsler though I’m gonna hafta disagree with u on and I haven’t seen enough of Albies to agree with u there either. 

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30 minutes ago, JeterPimpedUrGF said:

I’d agree with u on Gordon, I’d call Dozier a wash cause they give u different stats, I’d imagine Murphy is coming off the board first though in average draft position. I’d definitely agree with u on Jose Ramirez. Kinsler though I’m gonna hafta disagree with u on and I haven’t seen enough of Albies to agree with u there either. 

I like players that end up hitting around Trout.

 

I still wouldn't take Murphy as a top 36 pick. But that is me. Others have different opinions and I wanted to gain info on why a third-round pick.

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15 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

Kinsler over Murphy seems like quite a stretch.

 

Completely agree.  I dont think I could ever take Kinsler over Murphy in any format.

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Kinsler in round 12+ or Murphy in the 3rd?  Murphy will be dropping in the Nats order this year till injuries happen. 

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14 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Kinsler in round 12+ or Murphy in the 3rd?  Murphy will be dropping in the Nats order this year till injuries happen. 

 

Comparing players at their ADP is completely different than comparing them straight up.

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2 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Comparing players at their ADP is completely different than comparing them straight up.

Started out with Murphy in the third as the original post. Draft position plays a part of value also

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29 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Started out with Murphy in the third as the original post. Draft position plays a part of value also

 

You were asked for better options though

 

"Please list what those better options are"

 

The intent is what better options in the abstract, not at their ADP.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

you are right it is an outstanding 3rd selection. Excellent value. 

 

Not sure who this refers to but I never said anything about him being a good 3rd selection??

 

I think you are getting confused.

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3 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

Not sure who this refers to but I never said anything about him being a good 3rd selection??

 

I think you are getting confused.

No he was referenced as an excellent third round pick which equates to value

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On 1/10/2018 at 11:54 AM, Low and Away said:

Why would you take him ADP of 36 or less in a 12 team redraft?  There are way better options at 2nd base with Murphy ranked 19th on ESPN PR for the 2017 season. Granted some of those won't qualify this year at 2nd but still.

 

23 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Dozier, Gordon, Albies, Ramirez, and Kinsler to name a few.

 

Come on. Kinsler? Albies? Dozier? I mean, i can see calling Dozier a push, but you can't take Albies or Kinsler over Murphy in a redraft league. Well, i guess you can, but it's a bit reckless IMO. 

I think calling him an "oustanding third round selection" as he was before was a bit much. He's a fair pick in the late third, and a good pick after that IMO. But, a lot of this depends how the spring goes. Chance he misses games early in the year last I heard, and if that's the case you should be able to pick him up for real cheap

 

My only locks at 2B over him (pending he's healthy) are JoRam, Altuve, and Rizzo. 2 of them likely won't play 2B in 2018, but that doesn't really matter, they're eligible there anyway. Gordon isn't necessarily a lock for me over Murphy, it depends on how my draft early goes. If I end up with Turner at SS in the first, Betts in the 2nd at OF, I'm passing on Gordon for Murphy. If I go Correa in the first, Machado in the second then I'm going Gordon over Murphy. This only applies in categorical scoring. 

 

Murphy was 19th on the PR? Where do you see that? He was barely behind Rizzo on the player rater, and arguably more valuable. Among 2B,  Murphy was 8th for 2B. Turner won't be eligible there again, I'm not taking Dozier or Merrifield over him. In the first 3 rounds Altuve, JoRam, Gordon, and Rizzo will all be gone. After that, there's a ton of judgement calls. 

 

I love that Murphy is super dependable on what he'll give you. In 140-145 games, you're gonna get a .320 BA, 25 HR, 95 RBI. The BA is a tough category. 

I hate that Murphy is super not dependable about being on the field. The microfracture surgery makes me worry more. 

Personally, I probably sleep on 2B if I don't address it with Altuve/Rizzo/JoRam, and just see what value falls to me later in the draft. 

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