yusko9

General Rule of Thumb - WHIR

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So this may be a tough question to answer. But I am curious how most view trading start up picks. Like what should moving down in a particular round or moving out of a round cost? For example I have the 1.02 in an upcoming Roto dynasty. I am fully content to sit tight and snag Altuve, Arenando, or Harper (at least that is who I am looking at right now). But for the sake of argument if I were to move back or out of the first all together what is a reasonable return. A 2nd and 3rd? Move from 1.02 and get 1.09 and a 2nd? 

 

Help me out I have never quite figured this out in baseball drafts. 

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* General rule of thumb for start up dynasty is forget the word dynasty, people will overpick because of the "future" and chances are the league wont be around, so just draft for 2018  I mean if its a coin flip, fine take the younger guy  but dont take Yoan Moncada in the first round of a start up dynasty.  

 

* I would say if you are dealing a Superstar, you need a haul, like if the person had the pick at the end of the first, I might want their 1st and 2nd?  Or I might want picks from rounds like 2-3-4 - they are gonna have to overpay, the biggest mistake I see on some of these is teams give up their first and then maybe get like a 4th, but then give up their 7th and the 4th and 7th rounds have players on similar tiers.  So I would ask for a haul, and if I had to give my picks back to make the number of picks equal, they would be like the last round.  So like the 2nd overall and my 22nd 23rd round picks for three picks in the first 5 rounds.  

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4 minutes ago, parrothead said:

* General rule of thumb for start up dynasty is forget the word dynasty, people will overpick because of the "future" and chances are the league wont be around, so just draft for 2018  I mean if its a coin flip, fine take the younger guy  but dont take Yoan Moncada in the first round of a start up dynasty.  

 

* I would say if you are dealing a Superstar, you need a haul, like if the person had the pick at the end of the first, I might want their 1st and 2nd?  Or I might want picks from rounds like 2-3-4 - they are gonna have to overpay, the biggest mistake I see on some of these is teams give up their first and then maybe get like a 4th, but then give up their 7th and the 4th and 7th rounds have players on similar tiers.  So I would ask for a haul, and if I had to give my picks back to make the number of picks equal, they would be like the last round.  So like the 2nd overall and my 22nd 23rd round picks for three picks in the first 5 rounds.  

 

That was my general though as well. And pretty much what the general rule of thumb is in dynasty football. Although I don't know if I have your same draconian outlook on league formation haha My experience is usually that people spend too heavily on win now and then end up leaving after the first year because they have no future! lol

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On 1/11/2018 at 1:07 PM, yusko9 said:

So this may be a tough question to answer. But I am curious how most view trading start up picks. Like what should moving down in a particular round or moving out of a round cost? For example I have the 1.02 in an upcoming Roto dynasty. I am fully content to sit tight and snag Altuve, Arenando, or Harper (at least that is who I am looking at right now). But for the sake of argument if I were to move back or out of the first all together what is a reasonable return. A 2nd and 3rd? Move from 1.02 and get 1.09 and a 2nd? 

 

Help me out I have never quite figured this out in baseball drafts. 

You Really need To Understand Where Your Picking and Where There is Value to be made. It's time consuming also especially if your doing a redraft. You can really ruin your draft by just wheeling and dealing picks.

 

That's about all I got since its something I don't mess with too much. 

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As zstlj said, there is no rule of thumb for first-rounders.  Especially given that it's a new league, you will want to solve this based on actual players, not slots.

 

Let's say you are considering trading 1.02 for 1.09 and 2.12.  For the sake of argument, let's say:

1.02 = Altuve

1.09 = Correa

2.12 = Votto

24.12 / replacement level = Justin Bour.

 

Would you trade Altuve and Bour for Correa and Votto?  That's how you have to think of it.

 

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3 hours ago, Ben Edelman said:

As zstlj said, there is no rule of thumb for first-rounders.  Especially given that it's a new league, you will want to solve this based on actual players, not slots.

 

Let's say you are considering trading 1.02 for 1.09 and 2.12.  For the sake of argument, let's say:

1.02 = Altuve

1.09 = Correa

2.12 = Votto

24.12 / replacement level = Justin Bour.

 

Would you trade Altuve and Bour for Correa and Votto?  That's how you have to think of it.

 

 

That's what I ended up doing. 

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I'm in the same boat as everyone else. Really have to look at who you realistically think will be available in those spots and look at it from a player perspective. For example, let's assume it's a 10 team league and you have the following picks:
1.02
2.09
3.02
4.09
etc.

I would probably offer 1.02 and 4.09 for 1.09 and 2.02. That would probably result in something like Altuve/Arenado + Marte/Hoskins for  Correa/T.Turner + Bryant/Machado. Now I'm not sure if the other side would take that; I'd be willing to provide them with a move up later in the draft if needed. But that's the kind of value I'd be looking for. 

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For reference I just gave: 

2.13, 4.13, and my 1st in the upcoming minor league draft 

I got: 

1.08, 7.08, and the guys 2nd in the minor league draft 

So far I got Arenado and he took Benintendi I will post again what it came out as at the end but I feel like I got the better end of the deal

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28 minutes ago, yusko9 said:

For reference I just gave: 

2.13, 4.13, and my 1st in the upcoming minor league draft 

I got: 

1.08, 7.08, and the guys 2nd in the minor league draft 

So far I got Arenado and he took Benintendi I will post again what it came out as at the end but I feel like I got the better end of the deal

 

Scratch that the 2nd I traded is on deck right now. He didn't take Benintendi with my pick.

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12 hours ago, yusko9 said:

 

Scratch that the 2nd I traded is on deck right now. He didn't take Benintendi with my pick.


Benintendi is probably a 4th round pick. So if he took him in the first two rounds over guys like Judge, Seager, Ramirez, Lindor, Springer, etc. then it's kind of hard to assess how you did. But either way I like the trade that you made. Something like C. Seager + Hosmer for Arenado + D. Murphy is what it should work out to in value.

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1 hour ago, Idoolittle said:


Benintendi is probably a 4th round pick. So if he took him in the first two rounds over guys like Judge, Seager, Ramirez, Lindor, Springer, etc. then it's kind of hard to assess how you did. But either way I like the trade that you made. Something like C. Seager + Hosmer for Arenado + D. Murphy is what it should work out to in value.

 

Well

1. I disagree on Benintendi being a 4th round pick in a roto dynasty, especially one this deep

2. It is 14 teams and Judge, Seager, Ramirez, Lindor and Springer were all taken already

 

But I agree I think I did well. I'm also not sure about Daniel Murphy being there for me in the 7th that is hard to imagine. 

 

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I promised to come back with the results so here we go. Now this doesn't include the minor league pick swap because we haven't started that draft yet. But here is the major league portion: 

I gave: 2.13 (JD Martinez) 4.13 (Jose Abreu)

I got: 1.08 (Nolan Arenado) 7.08 (Domingo Santana) 

 

I won't have first in the minor league portion but my first was the second to last pick and I will have two 2nds so I'd say I made out really well. 

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On 1/13/2018 at 8:33 PM, Idoolittle said:

I'm in the same boat as everyone else. Really have to look at who you realistically think will be available in those spots and look at it from a player perspective. For example, let's assume it's a 10 team league and you have the following picks:
1.02
2.09
3.02
4.09
etc.

I would probably offer 1.02 and 4.09 for 1.09 and 2.02. That would probably result in something like Altuve/Arenado + Marte/Hoskins for  Correa/T.Turner + Bryant/Machado. Now I'm not sure if the other side would take that; I'd be willing to provide them with a move up later in the draft if needed. But that's the kind of value I'd be looking for. 

Exaxtly . This is exactly what I would do but I don't think I'd ever accept it since dealing for the 1st and 2nd round is extremely tough to obtain. Especially so close...  I think if you added on top of that like ur 7th and 10th for his 8th and 17th haha Idk this stuff is way to hard imagining. 

 

Give: 1.2, 4.9, 7th, and 10th 

Get: 1.9, 2.2, 8th and 15th

 

Giving two picks so close together (1.9 and 2.2) for the 2nd pick would be terrible value. But idoolittle is right on

 

 

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