DoTheRoar

Javier Baez 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

“Groin tightness”

 

That could be out for a few days or done for the year. Let’s hope for the best :) 

 WHATT? 

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3 minutes ago, ramox15 said:

 WHATT? 

 

I’m making fun of the vague injury update

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The swing he took, just before his home run, would've sent most people to the hospital. I'm just guessing he may have tweaked something during that "SuperStroke".

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Back in the lineup and hitting third today. Good old Maddon

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Baez needs a big game out of the three hole to get that 8 spot out of Maddon's head.

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So early look at hitting metrics is interesting.  .313 ISO is pretty nuts.  Swinging a lot more,  both in and out of the zone.  Contact is up,  hitting a lot more pull side.  

Hr/fb is pretty high at 26%, babip actually looks low at  .280. SwStr is still way high. 

 

Confusing profile.  Things to like,  things to be nervous about

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46.1% O-Swing rate. Highest in baseball by nearly 4%. I sold a couple weeks back because I just can't believe a guy with that type of plate discipline can do it for 600 PA's, but at least he has a lot of pop in that bat. 

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48 minutes ago, absknicks said:

46.1% O-Swing rate. Highest in baseball by nearly 4%. I sold a couple weeks back because I just can't believe a guy with that type of plate discipline can do it for 600 PA's, but at least he has a lot of pop in that bat. 

These type of guys are always the hardest for me to make judgements on.  Contact and power are up,  but man alive take a pitch off the plate kid

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On 5/16/2018 at 10:04 PM, WahooManiac said:

These type of guys are always the hardest for me to make judgements on.  Contact and power are up,  but man alive take a pitch off the plate kid

yes he will make you lose hair in a OBP league lol

Edited by cdd10
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On 5/16/2018 at 10:14 PM, absknicks said:

46.1% O-Swing rate. Highest in baseball by nearly 4%. I sold a couple weeks back because I just can't believe a guy with that type of plate discipline can do it for 600 PA's, but at least he has a lot of pop in that bat. 

 

Vlad Guerrero towards the end of his career (2006 - 2011) was between 39% and 46%. And he put up some pretty nice numbers those years; not his peak years, but well above average. Somehow he kept his K rate under 14% while swinging at everything in sight.

 

That's the only other player I can think of who swings at so much crap, and his it hard most of the time.

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2 minutes ago, Ben Edelman said:

 

Vlad Guerrero towards the end of his career (2006 - 2011) was between 39% and 46%. And he put up some pretty nice numbers those years; not his peak years, but well above average. Somehow he kept his K rate under 14% while swinging at everything in sight.

 

That's the only other player I can think of who swings at so much crap, and his it hard most of the time.

Dude hit a dinger on a bounced pitch he was a complete outlier. 

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I don't really see what all the confusion is about. Javier Baez isn't some rookie; he already has 1500+ major league plate appearances to his credit.

 

He's playing everyday now, and is hitting for more power, and getting more plate appearances higher up in the lineup, especially when he's streaking. All of this lends itself well to more roto value of course. 

 

Baez has a legitimate shot at a 30/15 season and should bat about .260 the rest of the way. When you add his position eligibility, and his above average lineup, he starts to creep into the discussion of the best roto producers in the league. 

 

A final line of .260 BA, 30 HR, 15 SB, 80 R, 100 RBI with SS/2B eligiblity is pretty damn sexy -- especially when you consider his draft-cost.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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21 hours ago, collucho said:

Dude hit a dinger on a bounced pitch he was a complete outlier. 

 

This. Vlad is the exception of exceptions. Guys like him, Ichiro, etc. are innately special. 

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21 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

I don't really see what all the confusion is about. Javier Baez isn't some rookie; he already has 1500+ major league plate appearances to his credit.

 

He's playing everyday now, and is hitting for more power, and getting more plate appearances higher up in the lineup, especially when he's streaking. All of this lends itself well to more roto value of course. 

 

Baez has a legitimate shot at a 30/15 season and should bat about .260 the rest of the way. When you add his position eligibility, and his above average lineup, he starts to creep into the discussion of the best roto producers in the league. 

 

A final line of .260 BA, 30 HR, 15 SB, 80 R, 100 RBI with SS/2B eligiblity is pretty damn sexy -- especially when you consider his draft-cost.

 

those are some lofty projections. especially for someone that bats bottom third most of the time due to his OBP. 

Edited by cdd10

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3 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

those are some lofty projections. 

Baez is on pace for 40/20/136/100, so he’s being conservative. 

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In the 8 hole. I know he’s been scuffling a little bit, but Joe Maddon never instills the confidence in the young man.

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I’m in a obp and K league. Will be my next drop. Counting stats are nice but he hasn’t done anything in a month. Kills me in 3 categories. Pitch recognition regressing badly. 

Edited by Grace17

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1 hour ago, Grace17 said:

I’m in a obp and K league. Will be my next drop. Counting stats are nice but he hasn’t done anything in a month. Kills me in 3 categories. Pitch recognition regressing badly. 

If he’s your next drop, your team must be loaded. ?

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Somewhere I can hear Dennis Green shouting down from heaven "he is who we thought he is!"

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The strikeouts and OBP are bad by even Baez standards. Becoming unrosterable really quickly. 

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11 minutes ago, Grace17 said:

The strikeouts and OBP are bad by even Baez standards. Becoming unrosterable really quickly. 

 

I’m not ready to say he’s unrosterable, but we know Maddon will sit the guy if it isn’t happening for him. 

Edited by Stickfig13

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4th in the NL in RBI's, 10th in SB, 5th in Extra Base Hits, 4th in Homeruns, 8th in slugging... I understand the guy has had a bad week or two but how is he not rosterable? coming from the SS or 2B position I will take the production and the knowledge he is going to be somewhat inconsistent and streaky during an entire season. 

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21 minutes ago, Nitto22 said:

4th in the NL in RBI's, 10th in SB, 5th in Extra Base Hits, 4th in Homeruns, 8th in slugging... I understand the guy has had a bad week or two but how is he not rosterable? coming from the SS or 2B position I will take the production and the knowledge he is going to be somewhat inconsistent and streaky during an entire season. 

 

I'm with you, he's not unrosterable, but also depends on league size/bench.  There's no question he is struggling mightily after a really hot April.  He's turning back into the guy he has always been (see my Dennis Green comment above).  In order to win leagues, the idea of 'hoping' he will snap out of it may lend to you losing out on another guy that goes on a streak.  In deep leagues, he's a must hold though, I agree.

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1 hour ago, Nitto22 said:

4th in the NL in RBI's, 10th in SB, 5th in Extra Base Hits, 4th in Homeruns, 8th in slugging... I understand the guy has had a bad week or two but how is he not rosterable? coming from the SS or 2B position I will take the production and the knowledge he is going to be somewhat inconsistent and streaky during an entire season. 

 

8x8 league that counts offensive Ks and OBP....224 Obp the last month with a 35% K rate. League context matters. He has 12RBI since the start of May. 

 

Unless I am missing something those numbers are putrid 

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