Sign in to follow this  
brockpapersizer

Colin Moran 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

He's going to be the Pirates 3b, and per Roster Resource he's batting 2nd. I like this guy a lot, posted about him last year. The upside isn't sky high and he's more of a deep leaguer. Nothing to get too excited about, but this is obviously huge for his value as he was blocked in Houston.  He for some pretty damn good power in the minors last year 18 Home Runs in 338 PAs. He had an amazing 16+% walk rate and almost 10 bb%. 

 

I don't expect those numbers in the majors, but even regressing that back some would be impressive. PNC isn't a great park, but for Left Handed Power it's a 97 per stat corner, which is basically league average.  Moran is mostly pull power, so I think he has some OK power upside despite the perception of the ballpark. Having juiced balls won't hurt either.

 

I'm not sure he'll have value in 12 teamers right away, but certainly 14 and above with potential for better.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Moran’s situation is entirely different than Arcia’s. The sixth pick in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft had never demonstrated much power in the minors prior to this year with previous single-season highs of 10 homers and a .153 ISO. In 338 plate appearances at Triple-A Fresno, he obliterated those previous highs with 18 homers and a .235 ISO. The surge in power is made all the more impressive by the park factors in Fresno. The third baseman teased his breakout in the spring. In 41 plate appearances in spring training, he hit .389/.439/.611 with two homers, four walks and seven strikeouts. The strong spring and excellent year at the Triple-A level followed an offseason of refining his swing — you can read more about the swing changes and see some still images comparing his 2016 stance to 2017 here. Prior to this year, Moran’s FB% hovered around 30%. In 2017, he kicked that up to 40.2%, and he also ripped line drives at a new career-high 26.0% clip. It’s safe to say the swing changes worked out for him."

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/digging-deep-oswaldo-arcia-and-colin-moran/

 

Also

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-colin-moran-finding-his-swing/c-217065824

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Is he your next gausman?

 

No, don't think he has GOAT upside.  Again, I think he's a deep league play. In such leagues, he just gained a lot of value with this move. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

No, don't think he has GOAT upside.  Again, I think he's a deep league play. In such leagues, he just gained a lot of value with this move. 

Yeah I just wowed by your back to back in-depth posts about him. Hopefully he works out for the pirates. Most people seem to think they got a bad deal 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yeah I just wowed by your back to back in-depth posts about him. Hopefully he works out for the pirates. Most people seem to think they got a bad deal 

 

You'd like a bigger centerpiece back for Cole, but thats a lot of solid parts with longer control. 

 

Baseball Twitter and reactions are probably not a good indicator of actual value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yeah I just wowed by your back to back in-depth posts about him. Hopefully he works out for the pirates. Most people seem to think they got a bad deal 

 

"Much like Justin Turner, Yonder Alonso and others before him, Moran retooled his swing, learned to love the fly ball and reaped the benefits. Such an extreme makeover may not work for everyone, but it was a perfect fit for Moran. He's big (6-foot-4, and likely more than his listed 204 pounds), strong and has always had excellent hand-eye coordination that led to plenty of contact."
Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/morans-power-surge-may-long-lasting/#HR7J61CRDFbh2zhc.99"

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just adding some more to @brockpapersizer's great info on Colin Moran. I do see some upside in Moran for a few reasons! 1st, he hit .308/.373/.543 in AAA last year with 18 HRs in 338 PAs, good for a 133 wRC+ which tied with everyone's favorite sleeper prospect Willie Calhoun. Note that Moran posted very solid 9.2 BB% and 16.3 K% in AAA which show he has a strong approach and quality contact skills. Moran's batted ball profile in AAA is pretty darn sexy too, with a 26% Line-drive rate, a 33.7% ground-ball rate, and a 40.2% fly-ball rate. That's a TON of line-drives (for reference, a 26% LD rate would have been the 5th highest in the majors last year) which is awesome for his batting average as line-drives are the best contact outcome for BAPIP. That 40.2% Fly-ball is also going to help him maximize his power potential. Especially when you mention that he's 6 foot 4, 204 lbs and that he posted a well above-average exit velocity in his small sample in the majors last year (Moran posted a 91.89 MPH avg exit velocity, MLB average is 87.32). If you believe in the fly-ball revolution, I think he's an easy guy to buy into as the changes in the minors look pretty darn legitimate. Overall, I see a guy that has good contact skills, has a quality approach and eye, he emphasizes airborne contact which should help him to maximize his power upside which could be 20-25 HRs easy, and he should be in a position to play pretty well every day. Looks like a potential sleeper to me that you'll likely be able to grab super late in drafts or off the wire in the majority of leagues. I like the acquisition of Moran for Pittsburgh!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, duke of queens said:

One other caveat for Moran. He has the MLB pedigree going for him. His uncle is BJ Surhoff.

 

Was also the 6th overall pick in the draft 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@2ndCitySox screw it, he's my guy. I was big on Albies for next year as soon as the season ended but he's getting ridiculous hype. I think Albies is going to be fantastic next year, but the profit is quickly shrinking.

 

I peg Moran as someone who could be this year's Yonder Alonso, and hopefully can come closer to sustaining it for a full season. 25 bombs with a decent average is probably not the craziest ceiling to get excited over, but I feel like he has a fair enough chance of achieving it and the cost could be super cheap.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Minimal power, minimal speed, solid average. Honestly, David Freese is probably what we're talking about here. Yes, I know he has seen his power improve in AAA, but I suspect that that's a PCL effect that won't carry over to Pittsburgh.

 

May be a bench guy in a 16+ teamer for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oswald737 said:

Minimal power, minimal speed, solid average. Honestly, David Freese is probably what we're talking about here. Yes, I know he has seen his power improve in AAA, but I suspect that that's a PCL effect that won't carry over to Pittsburgh.

 

May be a bench guy in a 16+ teamer for me.

 

I would disagree on the minimal power assessment, though I clearly agree it won't be elite. He had 18 home runs in 338 PA last year. Slugged 818 in his meaningless 12 AB in the majors. He launch angled a big change last year.

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I would disagree on the minimal power assessment, though I clearly agree it won't be elite. He had 18 home runs in 338 PA last year. Slugged 818 in his meaningless 12 AB in the majors. He launch angled a big change last year.

 

I've watched him a fair bit while scouting other players. I take stats in the PCL as a 24 year old with a grain of salt. My eyes simply tell me that this guy will hit 20 HR in a career year, but otherwise, I see a plug. I'm not some professional scout, but that's just what my aged eyeballs tell me.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oswald737 said:

 

I've watched him a fair bit while scouting other players. I take stats in the PCL as a 24 year old with a grain of salt. My eyes simply tell me that this guy will hit 20 HR in a career year, but otherwise, I see a plug. I'm not some professional scout, but that's just what my aged eyeballs tell me.

 

I think the power upside is a tad more than 20, but not by much. I really do believe in the swing change.  He's always made good contact. 18-22 homers with a 275 or so average isn't something to get super giddy over.... I totally get it. Still think that had value in deeper leagues.  I play in quite a few leagues with 14+ teams and an MI spot. He has big appeal in NL only as a corner if he's the starter at 3rd. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think the power upside is a tad more than 20, but not by much. I really do believe in the swing change.  He's always made good contact. 18-22 homers with a 275 or so average isn't something to get super giddy over.... I totally get it. Still think that had value in deeper leagues.  I play in quite a few leagues with 14+ teams and an MI spot. He has big appeal in NL only as a corner if he's the starter at 3rd. 

 

We'll see who is right. Yes, he'll have value. Basically, any league where you  would roster a guy like Solarte is where you want to own peak Moran. I expect this year to be like .260/55/12/60/2 or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was at Barnes & Noble today having a coffee grabbed a fantasy baseball magazine.

one article I read —

                        Finding the next Rhys Hoskins..     The first name this author mention —— Colin Moran 

maybe just maybe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I was at Barnes & Noble today having a coffee grabbed a fantasy baseball magazine.

one article I read —

                        Finding the next Rhys Hoskins..     The first name this author mention —— Colin Moran 

maybe just maybe

 

what magazine was this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

what magazine was this?

I don’t remember ...

Three magazines were on the rack. It was not Lindys or Street & Smith’s ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2018 at 7:18 PM, shakestreet said:

I don’t remember ...

Three magazines were on the rack. It was not Lindys or Street & Smith’s ..

 

Was there a picture of Brock Lesnat on the cover?

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Was there a picture of Brock Lesnat on the cover?

Who is Brock Lesnat? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Who is Brock Lesnat? 

 

Obvious typo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/16/2018 at 7:20 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

what magazine was this?

The Fantasy Baseball Guide

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.