Jyeatbvg

Trevor Story 2018 Outlook

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He'd be more interesting if he stole bases like he did in the minors, but in the majors he is just the run of the mill high power low average hitter. You can find an unlimited amount of these guys. You can get Paul Dejong much later and expect pretty much the exact same stats, minus the 7 or so SB Story may throw in. Javiar Baez could be had much later as well who will produce very similar numbers. Tim Anderson another guy who you trade some power for speed but other than that they aren't far apart. Looking at other positions there's a myriad of 25+ HR low average guys you can get very late and go for a different SS rather than Story.

 

Story's 2016 was a huge anomaly based off his profile, minor league stats, and what he did last year, so it shouldn't be used to boost his value.

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^^^I don't think we know who Trevor is yet as he was coming off a very serious injury in 2016 that cost him the final 2-months of the year (torn thumb ligament in his bottom hand when swinging). Typically, the amount of time you miss at the MLB level is the amount of games you have to play at the MLB level to get back to your true talent level. Which may explain the severe slump to start the year in 2017. He also hurt his shoulder on a check swing in 2017 which he went on the DL for briefly.

 

But I agree, no one thought Story was as good as he proved to be in 2016 based on his MILB track record. He was however pick 45 overall in the 2011 MLB draft, so there has always been some talent in there.

 

Of course Coors acts as the giant equalizer, so I'd think I'd rather bet on Story (110) because he is always startable at home. And Coors has a way of turning turds into gold, which is why I'm curious to see what Trevor can do after a healthy off-season and a down year. If he pops 35 home runs, he will be much closer to the 2016 Story.

 

I just see too much streakness in those other names you mentioned due to their poor plate discipline, which can be tough to swallow when they are slumping. Not that Story won't slump, but he's a must start at Coors.

Dejong (146)

Anderson (187), but at least he provides SBs.

Baez (99) is going ahead of Story. (All per NFBC data)

 

Also, the Rockies lineup is not that good, which may bump Story up in the lineup. Currently Roster Resource projects him at 5th which is a big improvement from last year:

1-Blackmon
2-LeMahieu
3-Arenado
4-Parra (lol)
5-Story
6-Desmond
7-McMahon
8-Iannetta

 

Story 2017 ABs:
Batting #2 - 4
Batting #3 - 3
Batting #4 - 36
Batting #5 - 38
Batting #6 - 140
Batting #7 - 217
Batting #8 - 50
Batting #9 - 15

 

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23 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

I just see too much streakness in those other names you mentioned due to their poor plate discipline, which can be tough to swallow when they are slumping. Not that Story won't slump, but he's a must start at Coors.

 

You can't be serious. Trevor Story has been one of the streakiest players in the MLB over the last few years. He literally made a name for himself with the hottest month ever, and then followed that with some of the coldest months ever. Play the man at Coors if you want, but don't use streakiness as a reason to buy in.

 

And poor plate discipline...used as an advantage for Story? A 34% K rate seems to disagree with you.

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On 1/22/2018 at 2:19 PM, Jyeatbvg said:

You can't be serious. Trevor Story has been one of the streakiest players in the MLB over the last few years. He literally made a name for himself with the hottest month ever, and then followed that with some of the coldest months ever. Play the man at Coors if you want, but don't use streakiness as a reason to buy in.

 

And poor plate discipline...used as an advantage for Story? A 34% K rate seems to disagree with you.

 

Fair points all around.

 

But trying to project, I'm just looking at the profiles and tend to dislike guys that don't get on base via the walk. When they slump, they slump hard. In a standard 5x5, probably not that bad since those aggressive hitters use their aggressive approach and come out with a higher batting average as they tend to make more contact early in the count on those pitches out of zone pitches that you can't do much with. In the end, they end up putting the ball in play more which is better than a strike out.

 

Yes, Story has a crap K-rate, but it comes with a decent walk rate (Runs, sbs). Those other guys have a crap k-rate and an almost zero walk rate, showing no signs of plate discipline. Story at least has half the equation figured out. Not that I ever expect the swing and miss to go away.

 

To me, Coors eliminates the streakiness of starting Story. For Anderson, Baez and Dejong, I only feel confident starting them verse opposite hand pitching (the rare lefty). I'm a head to head guy. In roto (you can play the end of season stats only matter card), but I would rather have Story and try to manipulate the stats even more by benching him on the road verse righties.

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Three true outcome guys are going to be streakier, no matter where they play, because once you factor in a ~10% BB% and a ~30% K%, that doesn't leave enough balls in play for BABIP luck to regress toward whatever their natural level is.  It all *should* still converge by the end of a season, but if you're in a H2H format, you're going to have to deal with weeks where they win your matchup and weeks where they lose it.

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Don't draft this guy lol, he will plummet you with his .220-15hr bat. For all those who rememberred my stance on Trevor Story at the beginning of last year, also remember that I touted Brendan Rodgers as someone that could take over Story at some point after the ASB if Story continues to struggle. Most of everyone laughed at the mere thought of Rodgers taking over Story in March of 2017, but now it almost seems like a probability eh?

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10 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Don't draft this guy lol, he will plummet you with his .220-15hr bat. For all those who rememberred my stance on Trevor Story at the beginning of last year, also remember that I touted Brendan Rodgers as someone that could take over Story at some point after the ASB if Story continues to struggle. Most of everyone laughed at the mere thought of Rodgers taking over Story in March of 2017, but now it almost seems like a probability eh?

More power to you if you think that but, no, I don't think a guy who hasn't shown the ability to hit past High-A and who has questions about his defense is on the verge of taking Story's job. I think the Rockies would prefer Story makes some adjustments and stays healthy this year and Rodgers hits his way into the 2B job next spring when Lemahieu's contract runs out.

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44 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Don't draft this guy lol, he will plummet you with his .220-15hr bat. For all those who rememberred my stance on Trevor Story at the beginning of last year, also remember that I touted Brendan Rodgers as someone that could take over Story at some point after the ASB if Story continues to struggle. Most of everyone laughed at the mere thought of Rodgers taking over Story in March of 2017, but now it almost seems like a probability eh?

 

Nope.

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Story is definitely not going to lose his job to Rodgers. His defense is way better.

 

I’m all over him this year. He’s exactly the same player he was in 2016.

Edited by Magoo

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I'm still a fan. Helps that I traded for him right last year right before he turned it around but I think he's a plus plus power guy and at SS, in Coors Field, that definitely has value. Little disappointing that his contact% actually got worse in 2017, though... that's the area he really needs to make progress in if he wants to take the next step. 

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Good luck gentlemen, I will be staying far away. The Rockies also have Garret Hampson in the farm, so if its not 2018 where Story risks losing his job, 2019 is definitely probable if he continues to hit like he did last year. Didn't this guy get benched and lose ABs to another MI last year, even though he was healthy?

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Maybe a bit but he still had 550 PA. I don't see this as a Villar-like situation where I'm terrified if he doesn't come out and light it up in the first few weeks, he may not get regular at-bats the rest of the season. Story will at least be given through the All-Star break, in my view, to show what he can do. Add in that he's shown an ability to adjust in his minor league career and, in fact, did hit far better in the second half last year; I think there are reasons to be optimistic.

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I like Story but surprised is ADP isn't a little lower.  He was putrid for a long stretch last season.

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He had just a god awful stretch that seemingly lasted for a few months last season.  And still ended with 24 HR, 82 RBI and a .765 OPS.  Looking at his profile when he was aggressive early in counts he was legendary, if he got into an extended count falling behind it was all but over.  That’s pretty common with young hitters as they evolve.  The positive is he had a terrible stretch where many owners moved on last year and he adjusted well enough to still put up solid positional stats.  Now in his third season this will really begin to show us who he truly is.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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7 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

He had just a god awful stretch that seemingly lasted for a few months last season.  And still ended with 24 HR, 82 RBI and a .765 OPS.  Looking at his profile when he was aggressive early in counts he was legendary, if he got into an extended count falling behind it was all but over.  That’s pretty common with young hitters as they evolve.  The positive is he had a terrible stretch where many owners moved on last year and he adjusted well enough to still put up solid positional stats.  Now in his third season this will really begin to show us who he truly is.  

 Yep the fact that he still went 24/82 with that horrific start is why im still bullish.  He's also a very good SB threat and could easily get 15-20 bags.  It's the bags that has him definitely in the top 130 for me.

Edited by Magoo

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As someone mentioned above, I’m not really worried about Rodgers because Story’s defense should keep him in the lineup unless he is really struggling for a long stretch. Maybe it was just a streak but maybe he can build off of his 2017 finish 

 

Story's 2-for-4 performance in the postseason contest followed a 23-game tear to end the regular season: hits in all but four of the games, a .302 batting average, five home runs, eight doubles, two triples and 18 RBIs. Story's numbers over 145 games were problematic with a .239 average and an NL-leading 191 strikeouts to go along with 24 home runs. But the ending of Story's second Major League season may have been a beginning.

 
"I told him after the last game that whatever we worked on toward the end of the year, don't forget that," Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado said. "Write it down, whatever it is, so you know going into the offseason this is what you've got
Edited by Under500Forever
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I have no idea how Story is going to do this year but I will say this

 

there isn't a more polarizing player on Rotoworld forum.....there are guys who tout him like hes going to be the best SS or think hes a complete bum and strikeout 200 times

 

 

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8 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I have no idea how Story is going to do this year but I will say this

 

there isn't a more polarizing player on Rotoworld forum.....there are guys who tout him like hes going to be the best SS or think hes a complete bum and strikeout 200 times

 

 

I mean he wasn't far off last year

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9 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I have no idea how Story is going to do this year but I will say this

 

there isn't a more polarizing player on Rotoworld forum.....there are guys who tout him like hes going to be the best SS or think hes a complete bum and strikeout 200 times

 

 

 

He was both two years ago. He was one of the best SS in Fantasy and on pace to strikeout around 200 times.

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Bud Black said he could hit cleanup this year.  Dare someone to tell me that drafting the cleanup hitter for the Colorado Rockies is a bad idea.  

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On 2/22/2018 at 9:10 AM, Cmilne23 said:

Bud Black said he could hit cleanup this year.  Dare someone to tell me that drafting the cleanup hitter for the Colorado Rockies is a bad idea.  

Amazing if true, but always have to take all stories coming out of spring training with a grain of salt.  If rumors of improved plate discipline are true I could see it, but to believe that a guy that k'd 190 times is suddenly gonna start laying off pitches is a little tough to imagine.

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On 2/22/2018 at 12:10 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Bud Black said he could hit cleanup this year.  Dare someone to tell me that drafting the cleanup hitter for the Colorado Rockies is a bad idea.  

If you take this guy in the top 5 rounds based on that anecdote you're going to have a bad time.

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13 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

If you take this guy in the top 5 rounds based on that anecdote you're going to have a bad time.

I’m struggling to find where he wrote take Story “in the top 5 rounds.” 

FTR I’m seeing his ADP ~116. That’s round 9 in a 12 team league. 🤷🏽‍♂️

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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This is completely gut meaning I haven't stared at his batted ball profile. But I feel 2018 will be his complete collapse opening the door for that top pick kid waiting in the minors. 2-3 months and I feel the hook will be quick and suddden, even though he's just 25.

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