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Jyeatbvg

Trevor Story 2018 Outlook

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39 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

This is completely gut meaning I haven't stared at his batted ball profile. But I feel 2018 will be his complete collapse opening the door for that top pick kid waiting in the minors. 2-3 months and I feel the hook will be quick and suddden, even though he's just 25.

 

I think you mean Brendan Rodgers.  He is being groomed to take DJ's place at 2nd after DJ becomes a free agent at the end of this year because (1) they will need a 2B and (2) Story is a far better defensive SS then Rodgers is. 

 

And "top pick kid" has slowed down a little in his ascent to being king of the hill (or mountain this being Colorado) as well.  Still really highly rated but slipped a little on prospect lists this season for the very first time and may need some more seasoning in the minors. Still a really good future big leaguer but not necessarily Superman.

 

And since Story took off like crazy with his bat the last two months of 2017 I think his obituary is rather premature to say the least.

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His bat will decide where he'll hit in the lineup. '2016 Story will have a great spot in the lineup, the 2017 version will end up hitting somewhere near the bottom. Managers can say all they want but it's up to the hitter to produce.

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This is one guy whom I will be paying close attention to his spring training. His spring approach and batted ball profile could tell a lot of what we should expect this season.

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Im not one to read into spring training stats, buuuuuuttttt.......

 

Trevor Story scored twice while racking up two hits Wednesday in the Rockies’ Cactus League win over the Rangers.

Both of his hits went for extra bases including a leadoff triple in the second inning. He drove in his only run on a double to center field off Clayton Blackburn. Story has been on fire this spring, cruising to a .467 average over 15 Cactus League at-bats. The 25-year-old flashed power with 24 homers and 32 doubles last year but led the National League with 191 strikeouts.

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1 hour ago, herschel said:

Im not one to read into spring training stats, buuuuuuttttt.......

 

Trevor Story scored twice while racking up two hits Wednesday in the Rockies’ Cactus League win over the Rangers.

Both of his hits went for extra bases including a leadoff triple in the second inning. He drove in his only run on a double to center field off Clayton Blackburn. Story has been on fire this spring, cruising to a .467 average over 15 Cactus League at-bats. The 25-year-old flashed power with 24 homers and 32 doubles last year but led the National League with 191 strikeouts.

Please get off to fast start for the forum entertainment value alone!

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I think I'm getting pretty close to be willing to take a real gamble on him in my upcoming draft.  SS is fairly weak as it usually is, so even if only hits .250 or so, he could be a good value.  I just have no idea how soon I'd be willing to pick him yet.

 

I'm not going to go crazy or anything though.  Spring Training is just Spring Training, and we've seen plenty of players have great stats in Spring Training and then tank when the season starts.  It is at least encouraging to hear that his approach has improved though.

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I’m trying hard to avoid this thread as I’m afraid i’ll be seduced into taking him in the 3rd rd again this year.

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Cargo dropping Story to 5th in the lineup.  He's looking pretty solid in his abs from what I have seen though...

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Posted (edited)

Despite all the disappointment last year he still managed about .240/24HRs with his 8% BB rate + his defense at SS improved. 

 

No is expecting him to hit .280. Still potential to have a .260/30 HR upside season. Its for sure in cards especially if his SS defense is respectable to keep him the lineup. All the projections are between .240-250 and 24-31 HRs

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Despite all the disappointment last year he still managed about .240/24HRs with his 8% BB rate + his defense at SS improved. 

 

No is expecting him to hit .280. Still potential to have a .260/30 HR upside season. Its for sure in cards especially if his SS defense is respectable. All the projections are between .240-250 and 24-31 HRs

 

 

 

Yeah that's kinda where I'm at with Story too. I do see a bit more upside on the top as well, but the baseline if he plays a full season looks like it's .240/24/8, which isn't all that bad. A modest improvement to .260/30/10 makes him an easy top 100 player. I'm willing to buy back in. 

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Dropped outside the top 100 (111) in the latest update to the Yahoo rankings. I'm intrigued now... Got burned last season and he was bad for sooooo long but I may be willing to bite again this season. 

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah that's kinda where I'm at with Story too. I do see a bit more upside on the top as well, but the baseline if he plays a full season looks like it's .240/24/8, which isn't all that bad. A modest improvement to .260/30/10 makes him an easy top 100 player. I'm willing to buy back in. 

I'm trying to decide if waiting a few more rounds and grabbing Paul DeJong might not be a better idea given how uncertain Story is to bounce back or repeat last year.

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21 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

I'm trying to decide if waiting a few more rounds and grabbing Paul DeJong might not be a better idea given how uncertain Story is to bounce back or repeat last year.

 

I'm not too interested in DeJong really. The risk may seem the same but DeJong doesn't walk or have as good of an eye. 

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I'm not too interested in DeJong really. The risk may seem the same but DeJong doesn't walk or have as good of an eye. 

In a standard redraft there won't be a significant difference unless Story improves on last year which is no sure thing.

DeJong's OBP was a little higher than Story as was SLG last year as a rookie.  A new six year extension as well for DeJong.

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6 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

In a standard redraft there won't be a significant difference unless Story improves on last year which is no sure thing.

DeJong's OBP was a little higher than Story as was SLG last year as a rookie.  A new six year extension as well for DeJong.

 

Again that depends on what you think of the players. I'm not willing to buy into DeJong sustianing his success at a high level or a good level with his PD. Not yet anyway. 

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story's ADP is basically a reflection of his numbers from last year which i think is safe to say is his floor.  given his last month of the season, his relatively young age plus the colorado factor, there is decent reason to believe he should be able to improve upon his numbers.  i get people not wanting to get burnt by him and staying away, but i still see him as a solid value pick if you want to wait to draft a ss and would think he has a very good chance of putting up better numbers vs where he is being drafted.

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20 minutes ago, herschel said:

story's ADP is basically a reflection of his numbers from last year which i think is safe to say is his floor.  given his last month of the season, his relatively young age plus the colorado factor, there is decent reason to believe he should be able to improve upon his numbers.  i get people not wanting to get burnt by him and staying away, but i still see him as a solid value pick if you want to wait to draft a ss and would think he has a very good chance of putting up better numbers vs where he is being drafted.

Story rebounded in the second half after a disastrous first half which destroyed his batting average for the year.

I was all aboard The Story Train last year. 

Just being more cautious to see if his plate discipline really has improved and would like to see his average finish closer to .260 this year which s/b reasonable.

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Was very frustrating to own last year but I kept him in the lineup all year not wanting to take a flier on another SS. I have him on my potentially draft list...but wonder when I will come to my senses. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Again that depends on what you think of the players. I'm not willing to buy into DeJong sustianing his success at a high level or a good level with his PD. Not yet anyway. 

I'm more with you in regards to DeJong.  He could have another solid season, but there's no sure thing there either given that what he did last season caught everyone by surprise (even the Cardinals I would imagine).  Is it for real or a fluke?  Who knows, and while I can understand waiting on him rather than Story, I also can see taking Story instead if you think improvements he's made in Spring Training are for real.

 

I had issues at SS last year in my keeper league due to injuries (ended up trading Segura and Nunez when they got hurt), so I remember using Story on a regular basis late in the season and he was actually pretty good.  If he can at least get his average to around .260, then I think he'll definitely be worth taking in Round 10 or so.

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7 K in 12 AB so far this season. 22 K in 54 AB in spring training. The power numbers are going to be there but I think Fangraphs was being overly optimistic when they predicted he will have a career low K% this season...

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.174 with 8 k's in 23 at bats.  didn't take story long to get into mid-season form.

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