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Homerj24

Nick Castellanos 2018 Outlook

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This guy keeps teasing us. Big 2nd half last season after the trades of JD and J-Up. Thoughts?

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Im a fan....will be targeting him this year before he possibly loses 3B eligibility.  

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44 minutes ago, Homerj24 said:

This guy keeps teasing us. Big 2nd half last season after the trades of JD and J-Up. Thoughts?

 

Detroit said 2 or 3 days ago they are very open to trading him.  If theey do and he goes to a good team or say Coors or the AL East and their ball parks, his value could rise quite a bit.

 

Of course it is hard as anything to trade position players in these days of the new juiced era.  But still worth monitoring for increased RBIs if nothing else.

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Is Castellanos breakout year coming? Or are some overvaluing him because of hard hit data that seemed really inaccurate in Comerica?

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55 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Is Castellanos breakout year coming? Or are some overvaluing him because of hard hit data that seemed really inaccurate in Comerica?

I don't really envision a big breakout coming, but acknowledge it's possible. It's hard to interpret some of the peripherals knowing the guns are weird in Comerica, but of the peripherals I think we can comfortably look at, his plate discipline looks about the same as it ever was. He barely increased his fb/hr totals and his contact % (both about 1 point higher than his usual). He made a big jump in o-contact, but that's not something I see as valuable (mostly because I'm not sure it's a sustainable skill and even if it is I'm not sure it means anything good). He hit a career high in groundballs (though again only beating his previous high by about a point). He actually hit fewer fly balls last year than he did each of the previous two seasons. 

 

Now let's look at  his team batting around him. If Miggy isn't dead (I'm buying into a possible bounce back but there are definitely legitimate concerns), that's huge. Okay, maybe Victor Martinez can still do something when he isn't disabled. James McCann? Leonys Martin? Might Candelario be a hidden gem this year? Okay, maybe. Could Mike Mahtook give a tolerable performance? I guess. If all those players stay healthy and put up good to great seasons, Castellanos should have lots of opportunities.

 

Realistically we know that's unlikely to happen. I think we can safely expect him to roughly repeat what he did last year. 25ish home runs, 70 runs and 90 rbi's. Toss in a 260-270 average and I'd be happy to have him on my team, even if it's an OBP league (don't expect him to walk much). Those numbers won't tank your team. But I don't see where the major upside is going to come from. 

 

Now let's talk ADP. I mean...pretty much everyone is draftable if the price is right. Right now, fantasy pros has him going as the 15th 3rd baseman overall. That is a hard pass for me. I'm sure he'll end up falling as the season gets closer, but that's over the likes of Seager, Marwin, Gallo, Beltre, and Carpenter. I'd rather have all those guys. If we look at couchmanagers, his ADP is a much more reasonable 20th 3rd baseman off the board. If I can get him that late? Yes, I'm absolutely on board! But I'm not rushing to grab a seat on the train. I'm going to roll up to the station 5 minutes late and hang off the side like a tourist in SF on those trolley cars. If that means I miss a seat so be it. I suspect I'll be able to scoop him out of a dumpster at some point during the season.

 

 

Edited by AnonymousRob
Walls of text are bad. Paragraphs are good.
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The guy is a sold hitter. I’m thinking he’s still getting better too. 28 dingers and 95 ribbies in 2018.

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He’s playing with little help offensively speaking - VMart n Miggy can’t run ... Tigers are a mess no thank you (and I’m a Detroit resident - Suburbs) ???

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

I don't really envision a big breakout coming, but acknowledge it's possible. It's hard to interpret some of the peripherals knowing the guns are weird in Comerica, but of the peripherals I think we can comfortably look at, his plate discipline looks about the same as it ever was. He barely increased his fb/hr totals and his contact % (both about 1 point higher than his usual). He made a big jump in o-contact, but that's not something I see as valuable (mostly because I'm not sure it's a sustainable skill and even if it is I'm not sure it means anything good). He hit a career high in groundballs (though again only beating his previous high by about a point). He actually hit fewer fly balls last year than he did each of the previous two seasons. 

 

Now let's look at  his team batting around him. If Miggy isn't dead (I'm buying into a possible bounce back but there are definitely legitimate concerns), that's huge. Okay, maybe Victor Martinez can still do something when he isn't disabled. James McCann? Leonys Martin? Might Candelario be a hidden gem this year? Okay, maybe. Could Mike Mahtook give a tolerable performance? I guess. If all those players stay healthy and put up good to great seasons, Castellanos should have lots of opportunities.

 

Realistically we know that's unlikely to happen. I think we can safely expect him to roughly repeat what he did last year. 25ish home runs, 70 runs and 90 rbi's. Toss in a 260-270 average and I'd be happy to have him on my team, even if it's an OBP league (don't expect him to walk much). Those numbers won't tank your team. But I don't see where the major upside is going to come from. 

 

Now let's talk ADP. I mean...pretty much everyone is draftable if the price is right. Right now, fantasy pros has him going as the 15th 3rd baseman overall. That is a hard pass for me. I'm sure he'll end up falling as the season gets closer, but that's over the likes of Seager, Marwin, Gallo, Beltre, and Carpenter. I'd rather have all those guys. If we look at couchmanagers, his ADP is a much more reasonable 20th 3rd baseman off the board. If I can get him that late? Yes, I'm absolutely on board! But I'm not rushing to grab a seat on the train. I'm going to roll up to the station 5 minutes late and hang off the side like a tourist in SF on those trolley cars. If that means I miss a seat so be it. I suspect I'll be able to scoop him out of a dumpster at some point during the season.

 

 

 

What do you think of this 

 

https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/01/08/nick-castellanos-will-never-cheap/

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One thing I want to mention that has me really excited about Castellanos this year is that he joined the fly-ball revolution part way through the year. 

1st half: 26.3 Line-drive%, 41.1 Ground-ball%, 32.6 Fly-ball%

2nd half: 22.8 Line-drive%, 33.6 Groundball %, 43.6 Fly-ball%

The results were positive! In the first half, he hit 10 HRs in 323 PAs. In the second half, he 16 HRs with a .299/.329/.553 in the second half in 291 PAs with a 16.9 K% and 4.2 BB%. He's always been a statcast darling, so if those flyball gains stick, I think there's a pretty good chance he hits 30 or more HRs in 2018.

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4 minutes ago, garlando said:

He's always been a statcast darling, so if those flyball gains stick, I think there's a pretty good chance he hits 30 or more HRs in 2018.

 

But is he a statcast darling last year because the gun was hot in Comerica? He was ranked like top 5 in hard hit contact ?

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Casty is a bonafide hitter. If he played on another team in a hitters ballpark then nobody would question his ADP. A change of scenery would be very nice indeed.

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19 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

But is he a statcast darling last year because the gun was hot in Comerica? He was ranked like top 5 in hard hit contact ?

I don't think it's fair to trust his 43.4% overall hard contact rate from last year because it's so far out in front Castellano's career average. I mean the hot gun had Castellanos with a 56.7% hard contact rate in March/April...that's ridiculous. He has shown an ability to consistently hit the ball hard though and post really good quality of contact figures. He has posted consistently well above average exit velocity numbers ( 89.1 MPH in 2017, 89.4 MPH in 2016, 88.3 MPH in 2015). MLB average is 87.27 MPH. He did have a 35.7% hard contact rate in 2016 which is above-average. His Hard Contact% in the second half of 2017 was 37.3% and I think that's a pretty accurate number for his skillset. A 37.3% hard contact rate over a full season would have ranked 34th best in baseball, in the same range as Freddie Freeman, Logan Morrison, and Travis Shaw. Remember that he's just 25 (will be 26 on opening day) and now entering his physical prime and so him having more strength and hitting the ball harder makes sense. Again, the changes he made in the 2nd half are really encouraging, and I really like Castellanos for this year!

Edited by garlando
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15 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I think it's interesting, but I'm still not seeing any reason to change my thoughts. I'm only looking at him from a redraft perspective. Dynasty values can vary a fair amount.

 

Their main argument seems to be what if he only has two good halves, instead of the one good half and one bad half like he's had each of the good seasons. That's nice, but I don't see any reason to change my expectations. 

The most intriguing thing for me is his increased fly ball rate in the second half of last year. Fangraphs had an article showing a big change in that can be somewhat sticky. But again it's not enough for me to fight for a spot on the train.

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On 1/16/2018 at 11:43 AM, Big Tuna said:

Im a fan....will be targeting him this year before he possibly loses 3B eligibility.  

 

I don't follow the Tigers very closely, but thought he would be the primary 3B option when I picked him up in a keeper league.  Are they really planning to keeping him in the OF all season or is this temporary?  I was really hoping he would maintain 3B.

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17 minutes ago, TekilaAF said:

 

I don't follow the Tigers very closely, but thought he would be the primary 3B option when I picked him up in a keeper league.  Are they really planning to keeping him in the OF all season or is this temporary?  I was really hoping he would maintain 3B.

 He's brutal on defense.  Cande is manning 3b and they're trying Nick in the OF this year.  Problem is Nick sucks in RF about as bad as he did at 3b. Given the state of the tigers,  I don't think the lack of D will cost him much PT. But I wouldn't bank on a lot of 3b appearances this season either

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, TekilaAF said:

 

I don't follow the Tigers very closely, but thought he would be the primary 3B option when I picked him up in a keeper league.  Are they really planning to keeping him in the OF all season or is this temporary?  I was really hoping he would maintain 3B.

OF will most likely be permanent for him going forward. Candelario was the best piece that they received from the Cubs when they dealt their closer (Justin Wilson) & Alex Avila as part of their midseason fire sale. He should be their 3B of the future. Nick was a bit of a liability at third as it was, so there isn't much to gain by forcing a platoon. He seems serviceable at best  in right field. 

On a better note for your situation, you should expect career numbers out of Castellanos. Cabrera is healthy in front of him, and Nick has been locked in all spring and also to start the season. He's 26 and in his prime. I expect .275-.280 with 30 home runs and 85-90 RBIs (only because the top of the order is weaker than it's been in a decade). Nick and Cabby will be solid, but will be in for a long season while everyone else around them struggles. 

Edited by Motown_Magic
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28 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

OF will most likely be permanent for him going forward. Candelario was the best piece that they received from the Cubs when they dealt their closer (Justin Wilson) & Alex Avila as part of their midseason fire sale. He should be their 3B of the future. Nick was a bit of a liability at third as it was, so there isn't much to gain by forcing a platoon. He seems serviceable at best  in right field. 

On a better note for your situation, you should expect career numbers out of Castellanos. Cabrera is healthy in front of him, and Nick has been locked in all spring and also to start the season. He's 26 and in his prime. I expect .275-.280 with 30 home runs and 85-90 RBIs (only because the top of the order is weaker than it's been in a decade). Nick and Cabby will be solid, but will be in for a long season while everyone else around them struggles. 

i don't own him in any leagues, but I mostly agree with your analysis. I actually think he will be a little better than your expectations. Assuming Miggy is healthy, I think he will at least be around 30 Homers and 90 RBIs. The team was constantly changing and Miggy was hurt last year and he still ended up with 26 and 101. 

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4 hours ago, TekilaAF said:

 

I don't follow the Tigers very closely, but thought he would be the primary 3B option when I picked him up in a keeper league.  Are they really planning to keeping him in the OF all season or is this temporary?  I was really hoping he would maintain 3B.

 

Candelario is their full time 3B from now on.  I think they even announced that at the end of last year even.  I saw it posted here last fall I'm pretty sure.  Nick is in the OF to stay.

 

If you check any good baseball site including Rotoworld's main baseball page there is usually a DEPTH CHART menu option.  Definitely best not to make dynasty moves or even keeper league moves without checking something like that in the future.

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4 hours ago, TekilaAF said:

 

I don't follow the Tigers very closely, but thought he would be the primary 3B option when I picked him up in a keeper league.  Are they really planning to keeping him in the OF all season or is this temporary?  I was really hoping he would maintain 3B.

 

4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Candelario is their full time 3B from now on.  I think they even announced that at the end of last year even.  I saw it posted here last fall I'm pretty sure.  Nick is in the OF to stay.

 

If you check any good baseball site including Rotoworld's main baseball page there is usually a DEPTH CHART menu option.  Definitely best not to make dynasty moves or even keeper league moves without checking something like that in the future.

RosterResource.com is another good option. They do a great job of breaking down the entire roster and notable MILB players. 

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Homerun!!...hopefully this will kickstart a hotstreak. He deserves it, he has been hitting the ball hard and has one of the lowest soft contact rates while keeping a good bb/k rate.

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