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DerrickHenrysCleats

Amari Cooper 2018 Outlook

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Just now, lvsaint429 said:

My bad...but he's still gonna bounce back under Gruden. No doubt in my mind

You’re not concerned about Gruden being insanely old school?

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

You’re not concerned about Gruden being insanely old school?

Not at all. Gruden's offense features the position Cooper plays. He's young enough to bounce back strong 

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6 hours ago, lvsaint429 said:

Not at all. Gruden's offense features the position Cooper plays. He's young enough to bounce back strong 

 

Not tall. Can't jump.

 

Best case, Landry last two years.

 

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The more I look at it the more Coopers case reminds me of Gurley.

 

Clearly showed talent and an ability to be great in fantasy then seemingly lost confidence as the team took a huge step back. Now, with new personnel it seems like he has the potential to be a huge break out candidate. 

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5 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

Not tall. Can't jump.

 

Best case, Landry last two years.

 

Cooper is 6 1

Landry is 5 11

 

Cooper also jumped 4.5 inches higher for his vertical at the combine. 

 

What a atrocious comparison. It's equivalent to comparing Coopers measurables to Julio Jones in the opposite direction. 

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6 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

Not tall. Can't jump.

 

Best case, Landry last two years.

 

So he is going to set records in receptions?

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On 07/07/2018 at 7:50 PM, jmausen said:

 

Not tall. Can't jump.

 

Best case, Landry last two years.

 

 

Not sure why height matters for WRs.

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15 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Not sure why height matters for WRs.

This has to be sarcasm...Right?

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45 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This has to be sarcasm...Right?

While it's not a claim I would ever make, when the best WR in the game is only 5'10... at some point we have to concede that height, while beneficial, can't really matter THAT much.

 

2 of the top 4 WRs last year were under 6 foot.  AB is 5'10, Landy is 5'11.

 

The confusing part is that Amari Cooper is 6'1.  Which is the same height as #1 WR last year, DeAndre Hopkins.  Taller than AB, Landry, and Tyreek, all of whom were top 10 WRs last year.  AJ Green was the tallest of all top 10 WRs, at 6'4.  Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen come in at 6'2, while Fitz, Thomas, and Julio stand 6'3.


Cooks is 5'9. Tate, Baldwin, and Hilton are all 5'10 as well, all of whom usually end up in the top ~15, Sanders at 5'11 usually hovers in the 15-20 range too.

 

BUT... jmausen is correct in that Cooper can't jump.  A 33" vert is pathetic.  For perspective in 2015 Chris Conley, at 6'3, recorded a 45" vert.  2 inches taller, but can jump a foot higher.  33" wouldn't have even ranked top 15 among WRs in this years draft class, in fact, there were 3 offensive lineman and 6 defensive lineman who exceeded 33" in their vertical jumps.

 

So, Amari isn't going to be your jump ball guy on measurables, but when he lines up next to Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Jared Cook, no one should expect Amari to be the target of 50/50 balls any time soon anyways.  But... you don't have to be a high jumper to be successful in the NFL, and Amari has never pretended to be that type of player.  He's a quick, explosive, sharp route runner, who creates space with his feet.  The largest concern of late, is with his hands though.  Maybe it was a fluke, but his drops have become a legitimate problem for this team.  With the guys around him that OAK has, I don't expect his TD rate to change drastically, and depending on how Jordy looks on field, I'm not convinced that for 2018 Amari doesn't have his toughest competition for targets since he entered the league.  Bryant, Jordy, Cook, and Lynch.  Arguably the most talent Amari has ever had around him.  That doesn't make me confident that Amari is going to suddenly become a target hog.

 

Quote

81. Under Jon Gruden from 2005 to 2007, Joey Galloway accounted for 34.5 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (third-highest rate in the NFL in that time frame).

82. In 2008, under Jon Gruden, Antonio Bryant accounted for 32.9 percent of Tampa Bay's receiving yards (eighth-highest rate that year).

83. In Amari Cooper's 13 career games with 10-plus targets, he has averaged 21.8 PPG.

83a. In Amari Cooper's 22 career games with eight-plus targets, he has averaged 18.0 PPG.

84. Last season, Michael Crabtree, Cordarrelle Patterson and Clive Walfordcombined for 42.2 percent of Oakland's red zone targets.

84a. All three of them are no longer with the Raiders.

85. Cooper is currently going in the sixth round, as WR22 on ESPN.com.

85a. He is only 24 years old.

 

 

I've read this, but when I look into them, I'm not sure they mean much.

 

In 2008, While Bryant may have had 33% of the targets, it only meant 138 total targets.  Amari had 130 and 131 targets in his first 2 years, and it didn't help him do anything special.  Furthermore, in 2008 the 2nd highest targeted WR on TB was Ike Hilliard with 58 targets.  Ike was essentially a nobody who in 8 years never broke 800 yards receiving.  If you think Jordy and Bryant are equal to Hilliard in threat to workload or won't both see more than 58 targets, then I guess you could try and use that logic to justify Amari dominating target shares in the same fashion.

 

As for Joey Galloway

2005 was essentially the same as 2008.  The second highest targeted WR on TB (Michael Clayton) got 55 targets.  Hilliard got 54.

2006... 142 targets, but no one mentioned he only caught 62 of them.  Perhaps these are Blake Bortles targets where it doesn't matter how many you have, if only half are catchable.  Clayton managed 64 targets this year in 12 games, and steady Ike managed 55, lol.

2007... Joey only had 96 targets.  Who cares what the target share is, 96 is not enough.  Ike finally breaks out with 85 targets!  Seemingly all at the expense of Joey though.  Not a good sign for Amari.

 

Targets aside, looking at actual production, Joey managed 83/1287/10, 62/1057/7, 57/1,014/6.  The latter 2 are barely top 20 WR production even in our drought of WR production last 2 years.  The first year was solid though.

Antonio Bryant's 84/1249/7 would have been good for 7th overall last year, but again... given the target shares these guys were given, the talent they had around them, I think it's actually a pretty damning stat that their yardage totals and TDs were so low.  If these are the type of production a Gruden #1 WR can get when dominating his entire team in talent/targets/production, then Amari is not looking good for 2018.

 

At WR17, he's too overpriced for my tastes.  He can easily return value on that investment, but it won't be for me.  I don't have any issues if people draft him there, but personally I'll have Demaryius, Tate, and likely Cooks ranked ahead of him, all of which have lower ADPs as of today on the WR front.  If I'm betting on a bounce back candidate, I think I'd rather take a chance with Jay Ajayi at the same price on the RB front.  At this same ADP, people will also have to contemplate if Amari can offer you a bigger PPG advantage than Rodgers/Watson might be able to.  That's for everyone to ask themselves.

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30 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

While it's not a claim I would ever make, when the best WR in the game is only 5'10... at some point we have to concede that height, while beneficial, can't really matter THAT much.

 

2 of the top 4 WRs last year were under 6 foot.  AB is 5'10, Landy is 5'11.

 

The confusing part is that Amari Cooper is 6'1.  Which is the same height as #1 WR last year, DeAndre Hopkins.  Taller than AB, Landry, and Tyreek, all of whom were top 10 WRs last year.  AJ Green was the tallest of all top 10 WRs, at 6'4.  Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen come in at 6'2, while Fitz, Thomas, and Julio stand 6'3.


Cooks is 5'9. Tate, Baldwin, and Hilton are all 5'10 as well, all of whom usually end up in the top ~15, Sanders at 5'11 usually hovers in the 15-20 range too.

 

BUT... jmausen is correct in that Cooper can't jump.  A 33" vert is pathetic.  For perspective in 2015 Chris Conley, at 6'3, recorded a 45" vert.  2 inches taller, but can jump a foot higher.  33" wouldn't have even ranked top 15 among WRs in this years draft class, in fact, there were 3 offensive lineman and 6 defensive lineman who exceeded 33" in their vertical jumps.

 

So, Amari isn't going to be your jump ball guy on measurables, but when he lines up next to Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Jared Cook, no one should expect Amari to be the target of 50/50 balls any time soon anyways.  But... you don't have to be a high jumper to be successful in the NFL, and Amari has never pretended to be that type of player.  He's a quick, explosive, sharp route runner, who creates space with his feet.  The largest concern of late, is with his hands though.  Maybe it was a fluke, but his drops have become a legitimate problem for this team.  With the guys around him that OAK has, I don't expect his TD rate to change drastically, and depending on how Jordy looks on field, I'm not convinced that for 2018 Amari doesn't have his toughest competition for targets since he entered the league.  Bryant, Jordy, Cook, and Lynch.  Arguably the most talent Amari has ever had around him.  That doesn't make me confident that Amari is going to suddenly become a target hog.

 

 

 

I've read this, but when I look into them, I'm not sure they mean much.

 

In 2008, While Bryant may have had 33% of the targets, it only meant 138 total targets.  Amari had 130 and 131 targets in his first 2 years, and it didn't help him do anything special.  Furthermore, in 2008 the 2nd highest targeted WR on TB was Ike Hilliard with 58 targets.  Ike was essentially a nobody who in 8 years never broke 800 yards receiving.  If you think Jordy and Bryant are equal to Hilliard in threat to workload or won't both see more than 58 targets, then I guess you could try and use that logic to justify Amari dominating target shares in the same fashion.

 

As for Joey Galloway

2005 was essentially the same as 2008.  The second highest targeted WR on TB (Michael Clayton) got 55 targets.  Hilliard got 54.

2006... 142 targets, but no one mentioned he only caught 62 of them.  Perhaps these are Blake Bortles targets where it doesn't matter how many you have, if only half are catchable.  Clayton managed 64 targets this year in 12 games, and steady Ike managed 55, lol.

2007... Joey only had 96 targets.  Who cares what the target share is, 96 is not enough.  Ike finally breaks out with 85 targets!  Seemingly all at the expense of Joey though.  Not a good sign for Amari.

 

Targets aside, looking at actual production, Joey managed 83/1287/10, 62/1057/7, 57/1,014/6.  The latter 2 are barely top 20 WR production even in our drought of WR production last 2 years.  The first year was solid though.

Antonio Bryant's 84/1249/7 would have been good for 7th overall last year, but again... given the target shares these guys were given, the talent they had around them, I think it's actually a pretty damning stat that their yardage totals and TDs were so low.  If these are the type of production a Gruden #1 WR can get when dominating his entire team in talent/targets/production, then Amari is not looking good for 2018.

 

At WR17, he's too overpriced for my tastes.  He can easily return value on that investment, but it won't be for me.  I don't have any issues if people draft him there, but personally I'll have Demaryius, Tate, and likely Cooks ranked ahead of him, all of which have lower ADPs as of today on the WR front.  If I'm betting on a bounce back candidate, I think I'd rather take a chance with Jay Ajayi at the same price on the RB front.  At this same ADP, people will also have to contemplate if Amari can offer you a bigger PPG advantage than Rodgers/Watson might be able to.  That's for everyone to ask themselves.

Moss and Cooper had the same vertical.

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Moss and Cooper had the same vertical.

 

If you truly believe that, you should stop analyzing football.
I see the site you're looking at, but it's BS, it doesn't have his 40 time right either.

Quote

 

“With 4.25 speed in the 40-yard-dash … an impressive 39-inch vertical leap and huge hands with tentacle-like fingers that rarely drop passes,” is how The Associated Press’ Jim Vertuno put it in 1997. 

 

Randy Moss is 6'4", two inches shorter than Pryor, but in his prime he had a vertical leap of 51 inches.

 

WR Randy Moss workout numbers from 1998 Marshall Pro Day: 6-4, 215 4.25 40-yd dash 47-inch vertical

 

 

I don't know which of these is true, but I for damn sure know it isn't 33.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Moss and Cooper had the same vertical.

lol....no. Just no.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

If you truly believe that, you should stop analyzing football.
I see the site you're looking at, but it's BS, it doesn't have his 40 time right either.

 

I don't know which of these is true, but I for damn sure know it isn't 33.

I wasn’t actually trying to make the point that Moss has a bad vertical. Anyone that watched Moss could see he jumped higher just like the 40 for Rice is total BS.

 

My point was using combine stats as a definitive isn’t the way to go. While Cooper hasn’t been a prime candidate of going and getting it I’m sure he got a little bit more bunnies.

 

Also, 51 inches is stupider than 33. His vertical wasn’t 51. 

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42 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Randy moss and I actually have the same erect penis vertical at 3.3 inches 

Picture or it isn't true.

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Best to re-rail this thread immediately.

 

Yes, Cooper has had drop issues, his mind not in the game. Overall, the Raiders had lots-o-issues, so will Carr level up, will Gruden lead the team to success? More relevantly, will Cooper be fantasy-viable, and where is he a value pick? Some truths:

 

1) In the past three years, we’ve seen Cooper’s share of target percentage fluctuate slightly, but last year it was abyssal:

 

2015 = 21.86% (of total Raiders targets), with Crabtree at 24.6%

2016 = 23.4% (Crabtree at 25%)

2017 = 17.33% (Crabtree at 18.72%)

 

On paper, looks like Carr spread the ball around in 2017, in reality he was simply rotting.

 

For perspective, Copper’s percentage of targets was just above Shady (and even with Graham), just below Engram, RB and TE, not anywhere near where you’d expect for a team’s “#1” WR (though, savvy drafters knew last year that Crabtree should be the first Raider drafted).

 

2) More comparison. If you’re drafting a team’s #1 WR (even if he’s your #2, even if it’s Round 3 or $25 auction), do you want a WR who’s targeted less than 1-in-5 attempts? (Disclaimer: you do if he’s scoring TDs half of those targets, but Fuller’s 2017 is another exception.)

 

TE-focused passing teams like KC are exceptions, other teams vary from season to season (e.g. Doyle’s 23% of Colts’ targets). Same for RB-heavy (CMcC’s 25% of Cam’s targets).

 

For comparison’s sake—seeing Cooper’s 3-year target share average at 20.8%, but highlighting the super-low 17.3% from last season—other “#1” WRs from 2017 include Nuk at 35% (KA slightly lower), AJG at 30%. But for a more realistic comparison—comparing WRs in Cooper’s ADP range—DT’s target share was at 27.3% and Fitzgerald at 30%.

 

I'm hesitant to invest in him considering Cooper’s lessened target percentage. Yet, I see so much upside. Yet, so many changes: new coach; one WR who’s shown exceptional skills at times but has flamed out at other times (both on and off the field); another WR who just two seasons ago was at the top of the league (yet with a top QB...). (Obviously, Cooper’s aforementioned draft-kin also have major changes at QB.)

 

Will Cooper see a 25+% target share in 2018? Will Carr finally highlight one WR?

 

3) One additional thing to consider alongside with target share might be percentage of total air yards. Cooper’s % is at 24.02% of Carr’s air yardage. The top 5 WRs—AJG, JJ, NUK, AB, MThomas, in that order—are all leagues ahead, 41.62% and higher. Cooper is ranked #33 in the NFL...

 

Will Nelson or Bryant replace Crabtree as Carr’s slight #1? If I had to answer now, I’d say “No,” but I’d also caution anyone who jumps quick at an answer, partially because of the talent of Bryant and Nelson, partially because of Carr’s performance (lack), partially because of Carr’s spreading the ball and not elevating any WR in particular, partially because of Cooper’s performance. 

 

It would not surprise me if Cooper’s target share (and percentage of air yards) is comparatively low because Carr is spreading the ball around (despite Gruden-heads insisting he’ll make Cooper a focal point).

 

Wouldn't call Cooper a safe bet, yet not as safe as some with similar ADPs, yet his price is not exorbitant. My three cents.

 

 

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Cooper's career drop rate is higher than Will Fuller's. Good thing he's going to get fed this year.

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Rather than catching bricks to improve his hands this offseason Amari Cooper has allegedly done most of his offseason training at Olive Garden, bulking up to 225 lbs against what you think would be common sense. This tells me what I already suspected; that Amari Cooper had trepidations about contact. 

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5 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

Rather than catching bricks to improve his hands this offseason Amari Cooper has allegedly done most of his offseason training at Olive Garden, bulking up to 225 lbs against what you think would be common sense. This tells me what I already suspected; that Amari Cooper had trepidations about contact. 

Is cooper a WR1 this year?

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On 7/7/2018 at 11:38 AM, Panthers8912 said:

You’re not concerned about Gruden being insanely old school?

 

I'm more concerned that Gruden is just insane.

 

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On 2018-07-10 at 1:30 AM, Panthers8912 said:

Randy moss and I actually have the same erect penis vertical at 3.3 inches 

Huh?

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On 7/31/2018 at 11:50 AM, boshtrich17 said:

Is cooper a WR1 this year?

 

Yes

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