DerrickHenrysCleats

Amari Cooper 2018 Season Outlook

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New year, new coach for Amari.

 

Jon Gruden in coaching stints as an OC in Philly and HC in Oakland and TB has peppered his #1 WR in targets.

 

He had Irving Fryar in Phily, Tim Brown and Jerry Rice in Oakland and Michael Clayton in TB.

 

Gruden targeted his WR1 with 140-150 targets a season. Not including the years he had Tim Brown and Jerry Rice on the same team they were both 1,000+ yd receivers for those seasosns.

 

With Crabtree likely to leave that will leave Carr with Amari as his most familiar receiver.

 

Major bounce back for Amari this year under Gruden.

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45 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

New year, new coach for Amari.

 

Jon Gruden in coaching stints as an OC in Philly and HC in Oakland and TB has peppered his #1 WR in targets.

 

He had Irving Fryar in Phily, Tim Brown and Jerry Rice in Oakland and Michael Clayton in TB.

 

Gruden targeted his WR1 with 140-150 targets a season. Not including the years he had Tim Brown and Jerry Rice on the same team they were both 1,000+ yd receivers for those seasosns.

 

With Crabtree likely to leave that will leave Carr with Amari as his most familiar receiver.

 

Major bounce back for Amari this year under Gruden.

I guess if he gets 150 targets and doesn't drop half of them he could be a steal. 

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You don't get recruited by Alabama, become highly coveted at the professional level, if you can't catch the football. It's something else, I have no idea what I'm looking for but it's centered around Derek Carr's ability to lead. If he needs to man up & go back into that locker room & get it right, he best do it!  

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37 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

You don't get recruited by Alabama, become highly coveted at the professional level, if you can't catch the football. It's something else, I have no idea what I'm looking for but it's centered around Derek Carr's ability to lead. If he needs to man up & go back into that locker room & get it right, he best do it!  

 

I don't know, I don't think Derek Carr's ability to lead (or not lead) is causing Amari Cooper to drop as many passes as he does...

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As far as Cooper's drops go, I know there was a fairly-recent thread in which it was being discussed whether Cooper drops a lot of passes or not. Here are a couple of articles on the topic...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-raiders-push-cooper-to-work-on-drops (Sept. 2017)

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-drops-still-problem-for-raiders-wr-amari-cooper (Sept. 2016)

 

I do think Cooper is a rebound candidate due to sheer volume with Crabtree out of the picture, and the focus Gruden historically has put on his #1 WR. 


But Gruden has been out of the coaching game for quite a while, and Cooper has his own flaws independent of teammates/coaching, so me personally, I'm tempering expectations.

 

Edited by Corleone

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Why is Crab being talked about like he is certainly gone? He has been in the bay area for nine years now, he won't restructure at all to stay with the team? I have been looking and can't find anything beyond a Review Journal article saying maybe he is gone but nothing definitive.

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

"Why is Crab being talked about like he is certainly gone? He has been in the bay area for nine years now, he won't restructure at all to stay with the team? I have been looking and can't find anything beyond a Review Journal article saying maybe he is gone but nothing definitive."

 

I appreciate you making mention of this, here's Mike Florio, although, he's simply citing Gehlken, your source. 

 

Quote

 

"Michael Gehlken ... reports that the Raiders are expected to move on from receiver Michael Crabtree after the season. ... there has been a measure of dysfunction behind the scenes” involving Crabtree, and Crabtree’s “baggage” outweighs his production. The report has no specifics regarding the dysfunction or baggage." http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/12/31/report-raiders-expected-to-part-ways-with-michael-crabtree/ 

 

 

 

 

Now, here's what's In the comments section: 

"Crabtree probably sealed his fate today and vetted this article by taking himself out of the game today for no explanation. You can’t win with a tool like this."

 

"I’ve recently noticed the frustration between Carr and Crabtree, did you guys see Crabtree leaving Carr hanging when Carr went up to him to shake his hand after the touchdown? (Vs the cowboys, I believe)"

 

Is there merit to these statements? The report itself says there's stuff going on, do you know what your source is referring to?  


 


 

Edited by markrc99

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

Why is Crab being talked about like he is certainly gone? He has been in the bay area for nine years now, he won't restructure at all to stay with the team? I have been looking and can't find anything beyond a Review Journal article saying maybe he is gone but nothing definitive.

 

if gruden wants him, he stays

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Prime bounce back situation for AC and will definitely be looking to draft him at a discount in next season's drafts.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

"... I don't think Derek Carr's ability to lead (or not lead) is causing Amari Cooper to drop as many passes as he does... personally, I'm tempering expectations."

 

What is cited above was taken from the separate comments. Corleone, you may want to consider my previous post. What we had previously was a rumor that Carr had lost the locker room or that there was internal discord. That rumor was linked to a player's wife, from another team. It may have been believed that she was the source to her own rumor, but that's refuted below. Here's a report back in mid-late November raising the same question: 

 

 

Quote

 

"I bring this up because of the Raiders. They are a talented team that’s seemingly not playing together. Their offensive line hasn’t protected Derek Carr as well as last year, and the receivers have been abysmal. ... Could it be that quiet resentments are festering below the surface because the team hasn’t addressed the anthem issue?" http://www.knbr.com/2017/11/20/division-in-raiders-locker-room-over-player-protests-could-be-furthering-teams-poor-play/


 

 

As I had sourced elsewhere, Cooper isn't the one dropping passes. The team has either led the league or been near the top of the list for several seasons.  

With respect to the material you sourced, there's this from the 2016 article: "The strange thing with Cooper is that the trait seems to have developed in the NFL." I should further note that neither of those articles offered any explanation for the drops. Perhaps there's nothing to it, if so, perhaps they'll put it behind them moving forward? But I'm Leary to just dismiss it, given the product on the field.   

 

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Ugh is what I say having owned him in 2017. That probably means he’s a buy low but I am not going there back to back years. Maybe round 5.

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2 hours ago, Wild Thing said:

Ugh is what I say having owned him in 2017. That probably means he’s a buy low but I am not going there back to back years. Maybe round 5.

 

Round 5 for what? To draft Amari?

 

No way he is available in the 5th rd. In my opinion.

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19 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Round 5 for what? To draft Amari?

 

No way he is available in the 5th rd. In my opinion.

Yes that is where he would need to drop for me to draft him again. And yes, I know that means I won’t be drafting him. Part of me worries he’s actually Tedd Ginn Jr.

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18 hours ago, markrc99 said:

 

 

What is cited above was taken from the separate comments. Corleone, you may want to consider my previous post. What we had previously was a rumor that Carr had lost the locker room or that there was internal discord. That rumor was linked to a player's wife, from another team. It may have been believed that she was the source to her own rumor, but that's refuted below. Here's a report back in mid-late November raising the same question: 

 

 

As I had sourced elsewhere, Cooper isn't the one dropping passes. The team has either led the league or been near the top of the list for several seasons.  

With respect to the material you sourced, there's this from the 2016 article: "The strange thing with Cooper is that the trait seems to have developed in the NFL." I should further note that neither of those articles offered any explanation for the drops. Perhaps there's nothing to it, if so, perhaps they'll put it behind them moving forward? But I'm Leary to just dismiss it, given the product on the field.   

 

I'm not following here. As far as rumors about who is sleeping with who and how that is affecting the team, I can't speak to that whatsoever.

 

As far as the comment that "Cooper isn't the one dropping passes", I'd have to strongly disagree. He is dropping them. Whether other players on the team drop passes or not, Cooper is still dropping more than his fair share of passes. Consider these numbers...

Cooper 2015: 18 drops - 72 catches - 20.0% drop rate

Cooper 2016:   4 drops - 83 catches -  4.6% drop rate

Cooper 2017: 10 drops - 48 catches - 17.2% drop rate

---------------

Cooper Career: 32 drops - 203 catches - 13.6% drop rate


For context, the league-average drop rate across the past two seasons was 7.5%. So Cooper was significantly worse than that in 2 of his 3 NFL seasons.

 

Towards looking at teammate Michael Crabtree, his drop rates the past 3 seasons: 2015: 8.6%, 2016: 12.7% and 2017: 9.4%. Not good. But a lot better than that of Cooper. 


And if your argument is that Carr (who will be the Raiders QB again in 2018) throws the ball in a way that's making good players drop the ball more than they should, take a look at Crabtree's drop rate across his 6 seasons in San Francisco. It was a cumulative 10.2% as a 49er. It is 10.4% as a Raider. 

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Corleone, I'm afraid you don't understand any part of the argument. The situation with the Raiders may be as simple as a new season and a new coach. I'm in the not so convinced camp.

Edited by markrc99

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On 1/17/2018 at 3:17 PM, FlashGordon401 said:

Prime bounce back situation for AC and will definitely be looking to draft him at a discount in next season's drafts.

 

I'm in this camp, but will have to see the price.

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19 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

Corleone, I'm afraid you don't understand any part of the argument. The situation with the Raiders may be as simple as a new season and a new coach. I'm in the not so convinced camp.

 

No, I don't really understand your argument. If you believe the change of the calendar to 2018 and addition of Gruden as coach will cure Cooper's drops (the drops being what I've posted about in this thread), hey, that's cool. 

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Just now, Corleone said:

 

No, I don't really understand your argument. If you believe the change of the calendar to 2018 and addition of Gruden as coach will cure Cooper's drops (the drops being what I've posted about in this thread), hey, that's cool. 

 

Any idea what OBJ, Dez, or Mike Evans are gonna do about their drops too?

 

With 150 targets i would not care if he dropped 20 passes, he would still have a 100 catch season.

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7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Any idea what OBJ, Dez, or Mike Evans are gonna do about their drops too?

 

With 150 targets i would not care if he dropped 20 passes, he would still have a 100 catch season.

 

If Cooper gets 150 targets, the only way he gets 100 catches is if he catches way more passes than he ever has before.

 

In 2015, Cooper's catch percentage was 55.4%. 

In 2016, Cooper's catch percentage was 62.9%.

In 2017, Cooper's catch percentage was 50.0%.

 

So if he gets 150 targets in 2018, in order to get 100 catches he would need a catch percentage of 66.7%.

 

If he stays at his current career catch percentage of 56.7%, 150 targets would give him about 85 catches (not 100). 

 

Maybe he does improve, it could happen. As I posted yesterday, "I do think Cooper is a rebound candidate due to sheer volume with Crabtree out of the picture, and the focus Gruden historically has put on his #1 WR.". But as also mentioned "Gruden has been out of the coaching game for quite a while, and Cooper has his own flaws independent of teammates/coaching, so me personally, I'm tempering expectations". 

 

For what it's worth, here's how Cooper finished amongst WR's across his career...

--2015: 27th ranked WR in .25 point PPR / 20th ranked WR in 1 point PPR

--2016: 13th ranked WR in both .25 and 1 point PPR

--2017: 27th ranked WR in .25 point PPR / 33rd ranked WR in 1 point PPR

(and when he had the monster Week 7 in 2017, many fantasy owners probably had him on the bench, since he had been so bad prior)

 

Cooper was a high draft pick. He *looks* like he should be a dominant WR. My thought is that because of those two things, he's been over-drafted every season of his career. But maybe 2018 is the year Cooper comes through, despite all the documented issues he's had so far. 

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14 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

If Cooper gets 150 targets, the only way he gets 100 catches is if he catches way more passes than he ever has before.

 

In 2015, Cooper's catch percentage was 55.4%. 

In 2016, Cooper's catch percentage was 62.9%.

In 2017, Cooper's catch percentage was 50.0%.

 

So if he gets 150 targets in 2018, in order to get 100 catches he would need a catch percentage of 66.7%.

 

If he stays at his current career catch percentage of 56.7%, 150 targets would give him about 85 catches (not 100). 

 

Maybe he does improve, it could happen. As I posted yesterday, "I do think Cooper is a rebound candidate due to sheer volume with Crabtree out of the picture, and the focus Gruden historically has put on his #1 WR.". But as also mentioned "Gruden has been out of the coaching game for quite a while, and Cooper has his own flaws independent of teammates/coaching, so me personally, I'm tempering expectations". 

 

For what it's worth, here's how Cooper finished amongst WR's across his career...

--2015: 27th ranked WR in .25 point PPR / 20th ranked WR in 1 point PPR

--2016: 13th ranked WR in both .25 and 1 point PPR

--2017: 27th ranked WR in .25 point PPR / 33rd ranked WR in 1 point PPR

(and when he had the monster Week 7 in 2017, many fantasy owners probably had him on the bench, since he had been so bad prior)

 

Cooper was a high draft pick. He *looks* like he should be a dominant WR. My thought is that because of those two things, he's been over-drafted every season of his career. But maybe 2018 is the year Cooper comes through, despite all the documented issues he's had so far. 

 

Sometimes you can get lost in the numbers, this year was a dumpster fire by the entire team, 1st year was a rookie with a 1,000yd season, go by this year and derek carr looked like the worst QB in the league and Amari was terrible. Go by last year with Bill Musgrave as OC and Carr was an MVP candidate and Amari was a 1,000yd receiver on the rise.

 

If amari gets 150 targets and only catches 85 thats 65 targets either uncatchable or dropped?

 

Unfathomable. If that happens i promise to get off the Amari train.

 

I think Del Rio made a huge mistake going with Downing as OC, he just didnt have the experience.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Sometimes you can get lost in the numbers, this year was a dumpster fire by the entire team, 1st year was a rookie with a 1,000yd season, go by this year and derek carr looked like the worst QB in the league and Amari was terrible. Go by last year with Bill Callahan as OC and Carr was an MVP candidate and Amari was a 1,000yd receiver on the rise.

 

If amari gets 150 targets and only catches 85 thats 65 targets either uncatchable or dropped?

 

Unfathomable. If that happens i promise to get off the Amari train.

 

I think Del Rio made a huge mistake going with Downing as OC, he just didnt have the experience.

 

Even when everything went well for the Raiders in 2016, with their OC and Carr playing like an MVP candidate, he still was only the 13th best fantasy WR. And when everything didn't go perfectly, he was significantly worse.

 

For 150 targets, yup, based on his 3-year career so far, 65 of them would not be caught by Amari. 

Amari had 132 targets in that ideal 2016. He had 83 catches. 

So if you boost the targets to 150 and the same career-high catch percentage he had that year, that would be 94 catches.

But that was Amari at his absolute-best. His catch percentages when things weren't perfect was significantly below that.

 

I do agree that the Raiders made a terrible move with changing OC last season. But even so, Amari has to take some of the blame for how poorly he himself performed. I hope he does rebound, but in 2018, I'll let someone else have him. He just hasn't been as good as it seems he should be. 

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4 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Even when everything went well for the Raiders in 2016, with their OC and Carr playing like an MVP candidate, he still was only the 13th best fantasy WR. And when everything didn't go perfectly, he was significantly worse.

 

For 150 targets, yup, based on his 3-year career so far, 65 of them would not be caught by Amari. 

Amari had 132 targets in that ideal 2016. He had 83 catches. 

So if you boost the targets to 150 and the same career-high catch percentage he had that year, that would be 94 catches.

But that was Amari at his absolute-best. His catch percentages when things weren't perfect was significantly below that.

 

I do agree that the Raiders made a terrible move with changing OC last season. But even so, Amari has to take some of the blame for how poorly he himself performed. I hope he does rebound, but in 2018, I'll let someone else have him. He just hasn't been as good as it seems he should be. 

 

Yeah, neither was Deandre Hopkins last year.

 

Amari also had Matt McGloin at QB for a game or 2 and he had an injured back.

 

Its ok if you let someone else have Grudens #1WR, im sure your league mates would not mind that.

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yeah, neither was Deandre Hopkins last year.

 

Amari also had Matt McGloin at QB for a game or 2 and he had an injured back.

 

Its ok if you let someone else have Grudens #1WR, im sure your league mates would not mind that.

 

Nobody can overcome the horror that is Brock Osweiller...not even Hopkins :) 

But that's the only excuse for Hopkins. There's been a lot more excuses for Amari so far.

 

If someone else wants to draft Amari as their #1 WR, that's completely fine by me. The guy who had him this season missed the playoffs. Actually, I just checked my main league and the Amari owner (a different owner in all 3 of his seasons) has never finished as high as .500...including last-place finishes in the past two seasons (seriously). 

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