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Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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8 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I agree, which is why I rank Doug one spot higher. 

 

However, a common FF strategy is to hit the home run. You can make a bunch of safe picks, but there are a few every draft that are riskier than others, but could very well win you your league. 

 

Watson is one of those guys, and I know you're a fan. It's the same thinking with Gordon. You can either be the guy who takes the big swing, or you can play it safe. 

 

Yeah, but Watson doesn't really cost me anything; if he whiffs, I still have Ryan, Stafford or Carr to carry the mail.  If I miss out on Fitz because I drafted Gordon and end up having to start Kenny Stills instead, I'm hurting.

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1 minute ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Yeah, but Watson doesn't really cost me anything; if he whiffs, I still have Ryan, Stafford or Carr to carry the mail.  If I miss out on Fitz because I drafted Gordon and end up having to start Kenny Stills instead, I'm hurting.

It costs something. If he flames out, sure you can rely on Stafford or Ryan. You could have picked a good WR or RB with that Watson pick though, and still started Stafford. Your starting core is now weaker because you took the big swing. 

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38 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

It costs something. If he flames out, sure you can rely on Stafford or Ryan. You could have picked a good WR or RB with that Watson pick though, and still started Stafford. Your starting core is now weaker because you took the big swing. 

 

Well, I do auctions, so the cost is absorbed over the cost of four or five players, instead of trading someone like Fitz for the opportunity to draft Watson.  It's more like I get Watson, Hilton, Fitz, DT, Garcon and Olsen instead of Ryan, Adams, Fitz, DT, Garcon and Ertz for the same $100.

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5 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Well, I do auctions, so the cost is absorbed over the cost of four or five players, instead of trading someone like Fitz for the opportunity to draft Watson.  It's more like I get Watson, Hilton, Fitz, DT, Garcon and Olsen instead of Ryan, Adams, Fitz, DT, Garcon and Ertz for the same $100.

You can frame it however you'd like and in whatever context. You still lose something. I'm not saying it's wrong, I'm merely drawing the line between players like Gordon and Watson, and the similar mindset when drafting them. 

 

You could apply the same auction idea to Gordon concerning the small way your team looks differently when purchasing him. 

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5 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

You can frame it however you'd like and in whatever context. You still lose something. I'm not saying it's wrong, I'm merely drawing the line between players like Gordon and Watson, and the similar mindset when drafting them. 

 

You could apply the same auction idea to Gordon concerning the small way your team looks differently when purchasing him. 

 

That's just splitting hairs; of course it costs SOMETHING to buy ANY player.  But it doesn't turn my RB2 into a RB3, my WR2 into a WR3 and my WR3 into a WR4 the way it does in a snake draft when you use a 3rd round pick on a QB.

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1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

It's hard for me to argue against Doug and Fitz. 2 of my favorite WRs who can be had at a discount this year. I take both of them over Gordon, but not by much. 

 

I don't see Doug as having top 5 upside though. I think he's firmly (and safely) right in the 8-12 range. 

Fitz is a beast.  But he's an old beast approaching a cliff that no one can predict.  I have no qualms with taking/ranking Fitz ahead of Gordon.

 

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...
I'd rather watch Josh Gordon flame out, than to suffer a season of Doug Baldwin's mediocrity.

 

His career best year only got him to 10th. (2015)

The next year he scored less fantasy points, but because he finished higher (aka the field sucked) people wanted to pretend he was trending up with Wilson. (2016)

Then in 2017 he takes another step backwards, fails to break 1,000 yards, has his lowest catch rate and reception totals in years, despite Russell Wilson having career highs in fantasy points, pass attempts, and Touchdowns.

 

On top of that, Doug Baldwin is now being drafted HIGHER than he was last year, and you want to call it a discount?

People in this thread want to talk about overratted WRs, then stop pointing the finger at Jarvis Landry and take a look at Doug Baldwin.

 

Doug Baldwin finished 14th overall last year.  These are his weekly finishes, weeks 1-16:

39th, 37th, 9th, 63rd, 47th, 5th, 26th, 4th, 22nd, 32nd, 81st, 24th, 18th, 105th, 18th.

 

Doug Baldwin is a glorified DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Ted Ginn Jr that somehow people have convinced themselves is different.  3 Great weeks that inflate his yearly totals, 8 weeks he destroys your team, and 4 weeks of whatever.

*No Offense to D.Jax and Wallace who were actually legit in their prime.

 

10th WR off the board, and 26th player overall.  Absolutely insane.

 

And before someone even tries to make the claim, NO, 2017 was not an outlier, he's game logs for 2016 looked the exact same.  In fact, you can find this exact warning label in his 2016 thread, where I explained ad nauseam to people that he didn't deserve to be drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

2018 is no different.  He doesn't deserve to be drafted as the 10th WR off the board, 26th overall.

He wasn't a value last year, I don't know how he could be considered a value this year.  You are drastically overpaying, because one time 4 seasons ago, he had 14 TDs.  Age effects everyone differently, but food for thought, Baldwin will be 30 years old at the start of this season.

 

Do not be fooled by position by attrition.

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6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Fitz is a beast.  But he's an old beast approaching a cliff that no one can predict.  I have no qualms with taking/ranking Fitz ahead of Gordon.

 

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...
I'd rather watch Josh Gordon flame out, than to suffer a season of Doug Baldwin's mediocrity.

 

His career best year only got him to 10th. (2015)

The next year he scored less fantasy points, but because he finished higher (aka the field sucked) people wanted to pretend he was trending up with Wilson. (2016)

Then in 2017 he takes another step backwards, fails to break 1,000 yards, has his lowest catch rate and reception totals in years, despite Russell Wilson having career highs in fantasy points, pass attempts, and Touchdowns.

 

On top of that, Doug Baldwin is now being drafted HIGHER than he was last year, and you want to call it a discount?

People in this thread want to talk about overratted WRs, then stop pointing the finger at Jarvis Landry and take a look at Doug Baldwin.

 

Doug Baldwin finished 14th overall last year.  These are his weekly finishes, weeks 1-16:

39th, 37th, 9th, 63rd, 47th, 5th, 26th, 4th, 22nd, 32nd, 81st, 24th, 18th, 105th, 18th.

 

Doug Baldwin is a glorified DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Ted Ginn Jr that somehow people have convinced themselves is different.  3 Great weeks that inflate his yearly totals, 8 weeks he destroys your team, and 4 weeks of whatever.

*No Offense to D.Jax and Wallace who were actually legit in their prime.

 

10th WR off the board, and 26th player overall.  Absolutely insane.

 

And before someone even tries to make the claim, NO, 2017 was not an outlier, he's game logs for 2016 looked the exact same.  In fact, you can find this exact warning label in his 2016 thread, where I explained ad nauseam to people that he didn't deserve to be drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

2018 is no different.  He doesn't deserve to be drafted as the 10th WR off the board, 26th overall.

He wasn't a value last year, I don't know how he could be considered a value this year.  You are drastically overpaying, because one time 4 seasons ago, he had 14 TDs.  Age effects everyone differently, but food for thought, Baldwin will be 30 years old at the start of this season.

 

Do not be fooled by position by attrition.

Adding to this, give me Lockett who is probably going in the double digit rounds over Baldwin 

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31 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Fitz is a beast.  But he's an old beast approaching a cliff that no one can predict.  I have no qualms with taking/ranking Fitz ahead of Gordon.

 

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...
I'd rather watch Josh Gordon flame out, than to suffer a season of Doug Baldwin's mediocrity.

 

His career best year only got him to 10th. (2015)

The next year he scored less fantasy points, but because he finished higher (aka the field sucked) people wanted to pretend he was trending up with Wilson. (2016)

Then in 2017 he takes another step backwards, fails to break 1,000 yards, has his lowest catch rate and reception totals in years, despite Russell Wilson having career highs in fantasy points, pass attempts, and Touchdowns.

 

On top of that, Doug Baldwin is now being drafted HIGHER than he was last year, and you want to call it a discount?

People in this thread want to talk about overratted WRs, then stop pointing the finger at Jarvis Landry and take a look at Doug Baldwin.

 

Doug Baldwin finished 14th overall last year.  These are his weekly finishes, weeks 1-16:

39th, 37th, 9th, 63rd, 47th, 5th, 26th, 4th, 22nd, 32nd, 81st, 24th, 18th, 105th, 18th.

 

Doug Baldwin is a glorified DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Ted Ginn Jr that somehow people have convinced themselves is different.  3 Great weeks that inflate his yearly totals, 8 weeks he destroys your team, and 4 weeks of whatever.

*No Offense to D.Jax and Wallace who were actually legit in their prime.

 

10th WR off the board, and 26th player overall.  Absolutely insane.

 

And before someone even tries to make the claim, NO, 2017 was not an outlier, he's game logs for 2016 looked the exact same.  In fact, you can find this exact warning label in his 2016 thread, where I explained ad nauseam to people that he didn't deserve to be drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

2018 is no different.  He doesn't deserve to be drafted as the 10th WR off the board, 26th overall.

He wasn't a value last year, I don't know how he could be considered a value this year.  You are drastically overpaying, because one time 4 seasons ago, he had 14 TDs.  Age effects everyone differently, but food for thought, Baldwin will be 30 years old at the start of this season.

 

Do not be fooled by position by attrition.

Couple things:

 

1. Doug has consistently finished as a low end WR1 for 3 years straight. There is a chemistry there with Russ that is hard to explain.

 

2. You can't make any knocks on his catch %. He's one of the best in the NFL over the last 3 years. 75% in 15 and 16, 64% in 17. See how many WRs you can find that have better hands. Probably why Russ trusts him. 

 

3. 2017 was "bad". Yeah, maybe, but I don't draft for last years stats. Both Richardson and Graham are gone. That's a total of 175 targets, 101 receptions, 1223 yards, and 16 TDs that left with them. Sure, this probably helps guys like Marshall and Lockett, but they're essentially the generic store brand cereal when compared to the Lucky Charms talent that just left. Doug will likely have his highest target count in his career this year. 

 

4. FF Calc currently has him as the 11th WR off the board, and with my personal projection of increased targets, that's right in range with where I see him finishing, with the upside to be as high as 7 or 8. He's a very safe pick. 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...

 

His career best year only got him to 10th.

 

Dunno what you're looking at, but at Fantasy Pros, Baldwin was the WR7 in standard scoring and the WR10 in PPR scoring for 2015, the WR10 in standard and the WR8 in PPR for 2016, and the WR11 in both standard and PPR last season, in 2017.

 

Sure, it would be nice if he got 14.8 fantasy points every single week, but the nature of the WR position is inconsistency--so you take the 7.3s along with the 21.5s.

 

In any case, his annual totals are about as consistent as they come, making him a MUCH safer pick than Josh Gordon at the same price.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Age effects everyone differently, but food for thought, Baldwin will be 30 years old at the start of this season.

 

Thats hardly a concern. He's been durable and will be probably age pretty well.

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34 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Josh Gordon is better than Doug Baldwin could ever dream of being 

 

True that.  But Baldwin is the better bet to get you more fantasy points.

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16 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

True that.  But Baldwin is the better bet to get you more fantasy points.

Not saying I dislike Baldwin though I do think he is overrated.  But Seattle had zero running game last year, threw the ball 552 times with 34 tds and Baldwin didn't get 1000 yds and only caught 8 of those tds.  I know 552 doesn't sound high but when you consider Wilson ran 95 times and I would be willing to guess only about 20 to 30 were designed runs(if that).  That would put them at over 600 attempts with a normal QB.  Add in the fact Baldwin is coming up on 30 and isn't the most physically gifted WR in the league.  A case could be made Baldwin had a small peak in his late 20s and is on the downside of his career now.   

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35 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Not saying I dislike Baldwin though I do think he is overrated.  But Seattle had zero running game last year, threw the ball 552 times with 34 tds and Baldwin didn't get 1000 yds and only caught 8 of those tds.  I know 552 doesn't sound high but when you consider Wilson ran 95 times and I would be willing to guess only about 20 to 30 were designed runs(if that).  That would put them at over 600 attempts with a normal QB.  Add in the fact Baldwin is coming up on 30 and isn't the most physically gifted WR in the league.  A case could be made Baldwin had a small peak in his late 20s and is on the downside of his career now.   

 

Or, Baldwin has been a top tennish WR for three years now, with no indication of anything changing, and you're just overthinking things.

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Doug Baldwin is currently going 2.13 or 27 overall in PPR 14 bangers. 

 

At least with Gordon you're gonna get a show, he could take you to the promised land as a main cog, or he could drop 3 TD's week 1 and celebrate with hookers and blow, you just don't know. 

 

Baker Mayfield will start by week 6-8 and he's really accurate and electric like Gordon, so there's that. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

At least with Gordon you're gonna get a show, he could take you to the promised land as a main cog, or he could drop 3 TD's week 1 and celebrate with hookers and blow, you just don't know. 

 

Pretty sure it wouldn't be blow.  More like suck.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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Posted (edited)

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/nfl/2018/07/20/fantasy-football-2018-todd-haley-cleveland-browns-duke-johnson-josh-gordon

 

Interesting read on about Todd Haley's tendencies and impact on Browns position groups.  As a life long Steeler fan his play calling has been both questionable and brilliant at times.  Browns will likely be working with a negative or neutral game script the majority of the time.  His tendencies shade pass heavy by a lot. 

 

There is a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Pittsburgh used Juju primarily in the slot but worked him outside as well, as Martavis role decreased.   He averaged 5.5 targets per game, but ticked up as the season progressed .  I'd expect Landry's numbers to be higher but not as high as in Miami where get was featured.  Both Duke and Hyde can catch the ball out of the backfield.  Njoku can stretch the seam.  Coleman or Higgins or Janis or Callaway on the opposite side of JG.  There's a lot to be excited about considering the volume.  Gotta disregard Tyrods experience with the Bills, or at least put his tendencies in context with a new situation which is completely different.  Worth noting Tyrods deep ball accuracy ranked 7th in 2017.  There will be plenty in Haley's offense. 

 

Ben and AB have a connection like no one else in the game, so it's not realistic to assume the same target numbers and connection between JG and Tyrod or Baker.  Over the last 5 years, AB has 858 targets, which is good for an average of171 per year.  Gordon will be playing the X in Haley's offense.  Expect a lot of bubble screens and slants, which will help inflate JGs targets and YAC, to go along with the deep ball where he is especially dangerous.  I will not be so bold to expect the same volume between JG and Tyrod or Baker, but let's figure 140-160 targets.  Ben and AB have an incredible connection, but it is also part scheme.  If Gordon is healthy I believe he's in for an absolutely monster fantasy and real life season.  

Edited by Debo
Grammar and clarification
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On 6/27/2018 at 7:21 PM, FFCollusion said:

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...
I'd rather watch Josh Gordon flame out, than to suffer a season of Doug Baldwin's mediocrity.

 

His career best year only got him to 10th. (2015)

The next year he scored less fantasy points, but because he finished higher (aka the field sucked) people wanted to pretend he was trending up with Wilson. (2016)

Then in 2017 he takes another step backwards, fails to break 1,000 yards, has his lowest catch rate and reception totals in years, despite Russell Wilson having career highs in fantasy points, pass attempts, and Touchdowns.

 

On top of that, Doug Baldwin is now being drafted HIGHER than he was last year, and you want to call it a discount?

People in this thread want to talk about overratted WRs, then stop pointing the finger at Jarvis Landry and take a look at Doug Baldwin.

 

Doug Baldwin finished 14th overall last year.  These are his weekly finishes, weeks 1-16:

39th, 37th, 9th, 63rd, 47th, 5th, 26th, 4th, 22nd, 32nd, 81st, 24th, 18th, 105th, 18th.

 

10th WR off the board, and 26th player overall.  Absolutely insane.

 

And before someone even tries to make the claim, NO, 2017 was not an outlier, he's game logs for 2016 looked the exact same.  In fact, you can find this exact warning label in his 2016 thread, where I explained ad nauseam to people that he didn't deserve to be drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

2018 is no different.  He doesn't deserve to be drafted as the 10th WR off the board, 26th overall.

Seattle has vacated 200 targets and 20 receiving TD's from last year.  They replaced them with only the guys who sat the bench last year, Brandon Marshall, and Jaron Brown.

 

Usually I see eye to eye with your posts but this one is way off.  You also have to take into account that this Seattle defense is falling apart.  Seattle may want to run the ball but let's be realistic.  There's no reason for Baldwin not to set career highs across the board.

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^Obviously he won't top 14 TD's but 10 is realistic.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Seattle has vacated 200 targets and 20 receiving TD's from last year.  They replaced them with only the guys who sat the bench last year, Brandon Marshall, and Jaron Brown.

 

Usually I see eye to eye with your posts but this one is way off.  You also have to take into account that this Seattle defense is falling apart.  Seattle may want to run the ball but let's be realistic.  There's no reason for Baldwin not to set career highs across the board.

 

If you want to pretend that replacing trash with trash is going to effect Baldwin, be my guest.  The supporting cast around him has sucked every single year he's been in the league, why are we going to act like having a bad supporting cast this time is somehow going to change his production for 2018?  Jimmy's TDs are the only aspect where I can logically see this as a potential positive for Baldwin.  But you do realize Baldwin played without Jimmy Graham for 4 years right?  And in those 4 years he averaged 3.8 TDs per game?  That it wasn't until Jimmy Graham joined the team in 2015 when for the next 3 years, Baldwin reach his 3 highest career TD rates ever?  Averaging 9.9TDs with Jimmy Graham on the team.  No Jimmy G on the field means guess who's getting doubled at the goal line every time. *An argument could be made that even a washed up B.Marsh is still the best WR Baldwin's ever had to compete with. Not worth defending, but just throwing it out there.

 

This has far more to do with Lynch's departure in my opinion, which is what I expected the first rebuttal to this to be, which is a trap you don't want to fall into.  If Baldwin's TD rate is dependent on the run game, then you don't get to pretend it's dependent on Jimmy leaving, you can't have it both ways.  The run game is still an unknown, yet to be seen, but I expect it to be better than 2017.  Baldwin's TD rate will likely remain unchanged in the grand scheme.  You can point fingers at the defense as you wish, but we just saw how terrible they were in 2017, combined with Wilson seting career highs in attempts and passing TDs, and still Baldwin yet again declined for the second year in a row.

 

He has TD upside, we've seen it happen, I won't dispute it, I agree 10 is a realistic possibility, but I would project a window of 7-9.  I'm not a fan of the 'TDs up for grabs' logic seeing as how 10-13 of those could disappear simply due to Wilson's year to year variance in passing TDs, combined with B.Marsh being able to stand in the RZ, and still be the best RZ threat the team has, rivaling Jimmy's.

 

But there's no logical breakdown that anyone has presented yet that would lead to more than 125 targets, or 90 catches, or 1050 yards.  At that point, even with 10 TDs we're talking less fantasy points than his career best year, in which he only finished 10th overall, which is where he's already being drafted.  Most importantly though, the part you seem to be glossing over, is that his final stats don't mean anything to me.  My dislike for Baldwin is the way in which he obtains his points on a weekly basis.  90/1050/10 looks solid when the year is over, but look at his game logs.  They're absolutely trash.  Take a glance at his 2017 thread, and read the highs and lows people went through starting him each week.  Or when they were trying to decide if they should bench or drop him, only to have him go off the week they did.

 

There are a lot of ways to win fantasy weeks.  I'm not here to tell you that by season's end, I don't expect Baldwin to be top 15.  I'm telling you, the way in which he accumulates those year end totals, are not a weekly-strategy that I want to employ or draft from a top 10 WR/2nd round investment.  There is nothing wrong with those who enjoy the Doug Baldwin type of players, or who like to have game winning weeks from their #1 WR.  You are more than welcome to go down that path.  I am stating, that I do not like that type of player from my 2nd round pick, or top 10 WR.  I'm okay with that boom/bust type of guy in my flex spot, who can be filled with receivers with the same type of volatility on a week to week basis, that are significantly cheaper.

 

Tl;dr

Doug Baldwin is a year-end top 15 WR who I expect to be around the 90/1100/8 range, but due to his weekly boom/bust nature, is a guy I prefer to rank in the 16-22 range, which is why I strongly disagree with drafting him in the 8-10 range.  Your mileage may vary.

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I want Gordon but I’m picking at #1 overall which would mean I would have to burn a 2nd/top of the 3rd pick since he’s going around the middle of the 3 round in most mocks I see.  I am in a 12 man league.  Anyone else in a similar predicament? 

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

If you want to pretend that replacing trash with trash is going to effect Baldwin, be my guest.  The supporting cast around him has sucked every single year he's been in the league, why are we going to act like having a bad supporting cast this time is somehow going to change his production for 2018?  Jimmy's TDs are the only aspect where I can logically see this as a potential positive for Baldwin.  But you do realize Baldwin played without Jimmy Graham for 4 years right?  And in those 4 years he averaged 3.8 TDs per game?  That it wasn't until Jimmy Graham joined the team in 2015 when for the next 3 years, Baldwin reach his 3 highest career TD rates ever?  Averaging 9.9TDs with Jimmy Graham on the team.  No Jimmy G on the field means guess who's getting doubled at the goal line every time.

?

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2 hours ago, dlionsfan901 said:

I want Gordon but I’m picking at #1 overall which would mean I would have to burn a 2nd/top of the 3rd pick since he’s going around the middle of the 3 round in most mocks I see.  I am in a 12 man league.  Anyone else in a similar predicament? 

I hope to be in this predicament. My 12 team league reveals draft order 10 mins before the draft to shake things up a bit. If I’m lucky enough to get the first overall pick I’m going DJ howard(this is standard) gordon. Don’t mean to start a discussion on those player, but I think rb-rb- gordon is a fantastic start. I’m looking to combine gordon with some higher floor wrs in the middle rounds as well. 

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I can't wait for the morons in my auction league to bid Josh up because they know I want him.  He should still be the cheapest big play wr in both auction and snake drafts.  It's easy to go for the high volume ppr guy like a Garcon or Tate but it's the big play guy that gets you chunky plays with a TD who wins you weeks. 

Tyrod will connect with Gordon on alot of chunky big plays and td's. 

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