DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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Look at what Gordon did with the Browns last year.  The numbers were nothing special.  Gordon's potential on the Patriots is much higher than it was on the Browns. He's on a team that is going to score a ton of points with one of the best QBs of all time. If Brady throws 35-40 passes a game, Gordon can certainly get 8 or 9 of those, which will be much higher quality targets than the possible 10 or so he might have got with the Browns.  Edelman's back as well, so I think what were going to see is Hogan's, Dorsett's, and Patterson's snap count and target rate all go down.  With Edelman, Gordon, and now Michel in full swing this is a completely revamped Pats offense compared to what it was in week 1.  I imagine J Whites' target rate going down as well. It's only a matter of time before Gordon takes hold of Chris Hogan's starting spot.  Once he does, watch out!!!  By week 10 at the latest this is what I imagine things are going to look like.  Brady throws 37 or so passes a game completing about 25 of them for about 3 TD's per game.  roughly 8 targets go to the RB's, 8 to Edelman, 7 to Gronk, 8 to Gordon, and that leaves 6 leftover for Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson, and anyone else.  Gordon should be able to catch about 5 passes a game with plenty of opportunities to score.  

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Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

 

Raw talent. You put your best players on the field.

 

You can doubt Gordon in a lot of ways, but he has more natural talent than any of those three.

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50 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

Because he is by far the most talented WR on the team.  

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

 

Snap count can go, go down or stay the same what's relevant is targets and receptions.

 Snaps are only a metric of opportunity.

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His snap counts and targets are likely to go up because Joshua Caleb Gordon is a perfect beam of sunlight, a vessel comprised of pure positive energy, a magnificent celestial entity around whom the universe revolves and draws of all of its strength.

 

And Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are realizing that more and more every day. 

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58 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Snap count can go, go down or stay the same what's relevant is targets and receptions.

 Snaps are only a metric of opportunity.

So you're insinuating that targets and receptions have no correlation to number of snaps played?

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22 minutes ago, cs3 said:

So you're insinuating that targets and receptions have no correlation to number of snaps played?

 

Insinuating?

1.
suggest or hint (something bad or reprehensible) in an indirect and unpleasant way.

 

 

Regarding snap counts, I think I was quite clear in my statement.

 

Your emphasis on snap counts is a bit flawed obviously there is a correleation but you are processing it wrong; what is relevant is the wr share  of targets and air yards.

snaps are a neccessasry component thats measures opportunity but snaps alone are not sufficient in predicting  productivity.

 

You want to determine gordons  target share and his air yards to predict his productivity not his snap count.

 

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Snap count can go, go down or stay the same what's relevant is targets and receptions.

 Snaps are only a metric of opportunity.

 

The more plays the player is on the field the more chances that player will have .. 

so snap counts is extremely important 

 

as we both know the Patriots have too many playmakers ... 

Is it possible the Patriots squeeze out one or more of there playmakers. No doubt. 

Maybe that player is Phillip Dorsett or maybe it is Josh Gordon. 

 

My opinion is that injuries will decide this ... 

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

It could stay the same, but of those 4 players its reasonable to assume that the one who is new to the team and new to the offense is the one whose role will grow. I don't think they're limiting Gordon's snaps because they see him as a limited role gadget player or no more talented than the other options. 

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

 

Um, because they all suck?

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Why does alot of people assume Hogan’s, Dorsett & Patterson snap count will go down while Gordon’s will go up? 

 

Why can’t it stay the same? 

 

 

 

Chris Hogan: a JAG that has trouble producing as the #3 option in the passing game. His best days are clearly behind him.


Patterson: still doesn't know how to actually run a route and is limited to gadget plays at or behind the line

 

Dorsett: I like Dorsett and think he should be on the field in 3 WR sets over Hogan. He doesn't have the physical jump ball ability Gordon has.

 

It is in the Pats best interest to give a majority of Hogan and Patterson's snaps to Gordon.

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4 hours ago, TommyKramer said:

Look at what Gordon did with the Browns last year.  The numbers were nothing special.  Gordon's potential on the Patriots is much higher than it was on the Browns. He's on a team that is going to score a ton of points with one of the best QBs of all time. If Brady throws 35-40 passes a game, Gordon can certainly get 8 or 9 of those, which will be much higher quality targets than the possible 10 or so he might have got with the Browns.  Edelman's back as well, so I think what were going to see is Hogan's, Dorsett's, and Patterson's snap count and target rate all go down.  With Edelman, Gordon, and now Michel in full swing this is a completely revamped Pats offense compared to what it was in week 1.  I imagine J Whites' target rate going down as well. It's only a matter of time before Gordon takes hold of Chris Hogan's starting spot.  Once he does, watch out!!!  By week 10 at the latest this is what I imagine things are going to look like.  Brady throws 37 or so passes a game completing about 25 of them for about 3 TD's per game.  roughly 8 targets go to the RB's, 8 to Edelman, 7 to Gronk, 8 to Gordon, and that leaves 6 leftover for Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson, and anyone else.  Gordon should be able to catch about 5 passes a game with plenty of opportunities to score.  

 

Disagree about his potential with the Browns.   Using the historic numbers from last season and this one aren’t indicative of his potential with a QB like Mayfield whose very accurate and doesn’t think twice about throwing deep.   I understand and agree with you comments about the Patriots and his potential role there.   And I’m fine with Gordon on the Pats.  I just think he would have had the same, if not greater FF potential on the Browns.   Of course the risk that he was going have off field issues was higher in Cleveland imo.

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20 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Of course the risk that he was going have off field issues was higher in Cleveland imo.

 

Winning is a good cure.

So far Gordon hasn't lost a game this season.

 

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2 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

Winning is a good cure.

So far Gordon hasn't lost a game this season.

 

Agree.  I think the risk of any off field problems has been significantly reduced.  From that standpoint, NE is probably the best place he could be.

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Weekly reminder that Gordon hasn't failed a drug test since May 2017. :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

 

The more plays the player is on the field the more chances that player will have .. 

so snap counts is extremely important 

 

as we both know the Patriots have too many playmakers ... 

Is it possible the Patriots squeeze out one or more of there playmakers. No doubt. 

Maybe that player is Phillip Dorsett or maybe it is Josh Gordon. 

 

My opinion is that injuries will decide this ... 

 

 

target share is more important. I can predict a significant outcome more with a players target share than their snap count. 

So let's not treat snap count as if it's an absolute indicator on the targets and receptions a wr will have.  lots of wr's have high snap counts but don't have significant target share of the passing game.  As i said snap count is a metric of opportunity but it is not sufficient in  determining targets and receptions.

Golden tate is 3rd in snapcounts after marvin and  golloday ahead of him but he recieves more target share than they do and currently he is more productive than them

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That TD grab Thursday night just changed his fate in NE. It would be stupid even for BB and Brady to not try him more often after seeing that. 

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Just now, Jack Valentine said:

That TD grab Thursday night just changed his fate in NE. It would be stupid even for BB and Brady to not try him more often after seeing that. 

Hoodie and Brady in unison: Hold our beer

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Hopefully the snap count rises dramatically this week. He's got an awesome matchup and gameflow should be on his side. It should be an absolute shootout.

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5 minutes ago, poofinger said:

When do we start him?

 

Now. KC-NE is going to be a track meet. I see him getting 4-5 catches with chunk yards. I bet they run him out more this week in a close game. 

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