DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

I'm starting him where I have him this week, really hoping for a shoot out forcing Brady to take some shots down field.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Kyle87 said:

I'm starting him where I have him this week, really hoping for a shoot out forcing Brady to take some shots down field.

A shoot out is inevitable. The dolphins are the only team who scored under 20 points against NEs terrible D. KC has one of the more explosive offenses in football. Kc defense is terrible as well. Id take the over on 60 points in a prime time matchup.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pats have put up 38 in back to back weeks.  A shoot out doesn’t necessarily imply a big game for Gordon.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, herschel said:

Pats have put up 38 in back to back weeks.  A shoot out doesn’t necessarily imply a big game for Gordon.

Shoot outs imply the other team is putting up points too and keeping it somewhat close 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m starting him but then again I started him the last two weeks so it would be crazy for me to now bench him. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pats have alot of weapons on offense...

 

There needs to be a injury or three with how many weapons the pats currently have to feel comfortable starting him as your wr.

 

Are you guys starting him as a flex option or hoping somehow he gets enough targets to warrant wr status?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, joed2323 said:

Pats have alot of weapons on offense...

 

There needs to be a injury or three with how many weapons the pats currently have to feel comfortable starting him as your wr.

 

Are you guys starting him as a flex option or hoping somehow he gets enough targets to warrant wr status?

Flex start this week with ingram on bye. ONly other options are Cooper and C Davis. I think the weapons thing is a bit over rated talk. If he gets enough snaps on throwing downs its his job to create space and get open and the trust with brady is coming along to look at him. I think most who flex this week will be like me and are believing that he sees 5-7 targets with a matchup that should be offensively explosive. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

22 minutes ago, joed2323 said:

Pats have alot of weapons on offense...

 

There needs to be a injury or three with how many weapons the pats currently have to feel comfortable starting him as your wr.

 

Are you guys starting him as a flex option or hoping somehow he gets enough targets to warrant wr status?

 

Flex option until snap count is raised higher imo. Needs to take Dorsett's and/or Hogan's snaps to be anything considered more. Rankings from the usual fantasy sources has him around the 30-40 WR range...might all be upside based though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Think he played 18 snaps two weeks ago, 21 snaps last week.  I think his ceiling is significantly capped being thrown into a new highly complex offense.  Additionally concerning is that his big play was a broken one, where Brady just heaved it up there.  Brady is risk averse, so I don't expect that to be the norm, and I think Gordon will be highly dependent on finding the endzone to provide consistent value.  Until he cleared 55-60% of the snaps I just don't think I could ever roll him out there personally.

 

I think near the end of the year, he will offer more consistent targets and value, just don't know if that will translate to fantasy success.

 

I know I mentioned this earlier but there is far too much stock being put into his snap count through 2 games.. the biggest caveat being that the two games he's played in were 4 days apart meaning the Pats went from playing on Sunday to immediately into walk-through/game prep mode for the game against the Colts, naturally this would work strongly against Gordon being a major factor in the game plan against the Colts.

 

I suspect this is the week we see a considerable snap count jump for Gordon (although it still may not be in the higher percentage range of 70%-80%). Despite the logic contrarians are pushing, Gordon will likely play a large role in the Patriots season-long aspirations.. Say what you want about his past suspension wise but there is little denying he is the most talented WR on the Patriots roster, we're not talking about Mike Floyd or Eric Decker here.

Edited by MoonBlaster
Surprise

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

I know I mentioned this earlier but there is far too much stock being put into his snap count through 2 games.. the biggest caveat being that the two games he's played in were 4 days apart meaning the Pats went from playing on Sunday to immediately into walk-through/game prep mode for the game against the Colts, naturally this would work strongly against Gordon being a major factor in the game plan against the Colts.

 

I suspect this is the week we see a considerable snap count jump for Gordon (although it still may not be in the higher percentage range of 70%-80%). Despite the logic contrarians are pushing, Gordon will likely play a large role in the Patriots season-long aspirations.. Say what you want about his past suspension wise but there is little denying he is the most talented WR on the Patriots roster, we're not talking about Mike Floyd or Eric Decker here.

 

Snap count is an abused metric in fantasy circles similar to the way the ice bucket challenge was abused or the nene/neenee/naynay dance. Snaps are important in terms of opportunity but not sufficient for fantasy production. What good is 30 snaps if u only get 1 target? Do you want 30 snaps 3 targets or 15 snaps 6 targets?

In the NE offense you have to be aware of target distribution more than snaps because hoodie offense attacks so many different ways every week.

Edited by dashoe
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, joed2323 said:

Pats have alot of weapons on offense...

 

There needs to be a injury or three with how many weapons the pats currently have to feel comfortable starting him as your wr.

 

Are you guys starting him as a flex option or hoping somehow he gets enough targets to warrant wr status?

In the leagues I have him I whiffed with aghalor and Crowder picks so my WRs aren't too pretty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, alexander1231 said:

 

 

Flex option until snap count is raised higher imo. Needs to take Dorsett's and/or Hogan's snaps to be anything considered more. Rankings from the usual fantasy sources has him around the 30-40 WR range...might all be upside based though.

Rankings are all over the place for this guy.  I've seen him as high as WR#17, which would imply a WR2.  That's bold.

 

2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Snap count is an abused metric in fantasy circles similar to the way the ice bucket challenge was abused or the nene/neenee/naynay dance. Snaps are important but not sufficient for fantasy production. What good is 30 snaps if u only get 1 target? Do you want 30 snaps 3 targets or 15 snaps 6 targets?

In the NE offense you have to be aware of target distribution more than snaps because hoodie offense attacks so many different ways every week.

Agree, but isn't it more reassuring if a WR is on the field than if not?  So he had 18 snaps, 4 targets.  So targeted on 22% of his snaps.  Edelman on the field for 48 of 69 snaps, with 9 targets, so targeted on 19% of his snaps.  While Gordon's targets/snaps is slightly higher, I think we would all agree that Edelman had the better chance to be productive.

 

We can manipulate stats and data all we want, but bottom line is that Gordon won't be a comfortable start for most until he gets on the field more.  Unfortunately, that's hard to predict.  Some of us will gamble and maybe reap the rewards of an upcoming shootout with KC.  But could easily flop as well.  Many will have him sit on the bench and wait for a prove it game, missing out on a potential bonanza of points.  Guess it depends on who your other receivers are and individual need to decide whether or not he goes into the lineup.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you sit him this week you will regret it.

 

edit: unless you have some incredible other options. Although you must have a hell of a team if you aren’t willing to slot Gordon into at least the flex.

Edited by 1st DownSyndrome

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fortunately the matchup is against KC on a week where Thomas and golladay are on bye. Forced to play Josh, but not mad about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CooL said:

Rankings are all over the place for this guy.  I've seen him as high as WR#17, which would imply a WR2.  That's bold.

 

Agree, but isn't it more reassuring if a WR is on the field than if not?  So he had 18 snaps, 4 targets.  So targeted on 22% of his snaps.  Edelman on the field for 48 of 69 snaps, with 9 targets, so targeted on 19% of his snaps.  While Gordon's targets/snaps is slightly higher, I think we would all agree that Edelman had the better chance to be productive.

 

We can manipulate stats and data all we want, but bottom line is that Gordon won't be a comfortable start for most until he gets on the field more.  Unfortunately, that's hard to predict.  Some of us will gamble and maybe reap the rewards of an upcoming shootout with KC.  But could easily flop as well.  Many will have him sit on the bench and wait for a prove it game, missing out on a potential bonanza of points.  Guess it depends on who your other receivers are and individual need to decide whether or not he goes into the lineup.

 

Nobody has gotten more snaps at the WR position for the Patriots than Hogan this year. We know how that has translated to targets (i.e. it hasn't).

 

It is absolutely true that there is typically a relationship between snaps and targets, and in JG's case he simply hasn't been on the field enough to get significant targets. In this case I agree with you that he's not a comfortable start at his current snap count. But if he can increase the snap count to at least 50%+ and retain the same target rate it becomes a no-brainer. This is all to say that I don't think JG has to be #1 in snap count to be the WR1 on the Patriots--but the snap count certainly has to increase.

 

Gordon isn't going to gain your confidence as a start this week by looking at the data, no doubt about it. For me this is one of the few cases though where I throw the data out the window. It is illogical to think he won't see the field more as weeks go by given his clear talent and opportunity in this WR group; you don't need to be an expert to see with your own eyes that this guy is on another level than his competition. This week is shaping up for him to see that increase in snaps that we've been waiting for as he's coming off a long week and made the kind of splash play last week that builds the coaching staff and Brady's confidence in him.

 

But more than the snap count, targets, place on the depth chart, etc. is that starting Gordon is simply fun. I've never been more entertained by a player in fantasy football than I have when JG is on my team. And if you started him last week you know the kind of elation I'm talking about when this guy shuts up the doubters with a huge play. It's an incredible experience starting this guy and makes it absolutely worth it regardless of the data, rankings, etc. I'm going to have more fun watching JG on my team, regardless of the outcome this week, than I will have starting a ho-hum WR3. Could it potentially lose me my week? Sure. But I'm going to have a hell of a time watching it play out, and that's what this game is all about.

 

Full steam ahead for me this week. Flash is starting.

 

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

 

But more than the snap count, targets, place on the depth chart, etc. is that starting Gordon is simply fun. I've never been more entertained by a player in fantasy football than I have when JG is on my team. And if you started him last week you know the kind of elation I'm talking about when this guy shuts up the doubters with a huge play. It's an incredible experience starting this guy and makes it absolutely worth it regardless of the data, rankings, etc. I'm going to have more fun watching JG on my team, regardless of the outcome this week, than I will have starting a ho-hum WR3. Could it potentially lose me my week? Sure. But I'm going to have a hell of a time watching it play out, and that's what this game is all about.

 

 

Yeah, I agree somewhat.  Mainly because I started him two weeks ago and he surely lost me the week.  Wasn't fun seeing him out there for his pathetic amount of snaps and 2 catches.  I'd say it was more frustrating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CooL said:

Yeah, I agree somewhat.  Mainly because I started him two weeks ago and he surely lost me the week.  Wasn't fun seeing him out there for his pathetic amount of snaps and 2 catches.  I'd say it was more frustrating.

 

You take the good with the bad. Didn't pull the trigger 2 weeks ago but I did last week. I won't lie--it was true anguish in the first half of the game and I probably cussed at myself twenty times for being stupid enough to start him. But all of that made the TD catch that much sweeter.

 

The lows of JG is what makes the highs so rewarding. If he doesn't catch that pass last week I would have been extremely frustrated and kicking myself for starting him. Even still I was more in tune with a TNF game than perhaps any other time in my life. That's entertainment value to me, regardless of the outcome. Unlike the last two weeks though it is reasonable to think that the potential for satisfaction is higher than the potential for frustration. That makes him an easy start for me moving forward.

 

If you started him two weeks ago I'm assuming you sat him last week. Can't blame you but that's a miserable existence as a JG owner. If he does poorly on your bench it still sucks if you like this guy as much as I do. You have to be ride or die if you want the full experience! At least it maximizes your chance of enjoying having him on your team. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My thoughts are, if you don't start him this week, at least in your flex spot, then when are you going to?  A matchup at home against KC is about as good as it gets.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

And if you started him last week you know the kind of elation I'm talking about when this guy shuts up the doubters with a huge play. It's an incredible experience starting this guy and makes it absolutely worth it regardless of the data, rankings, etc.

Exciting play, but Gordon only produced like 12 points. That's not exactly great. He didn't really shut anyone up.

 

As for the second sentence... LOL. If the Gordon experience is really that nind blowingly incredible for you while you lose, then by all means, have a blast.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How can some of you can confidently state snaps dont matter IN GORDONS SCENARIO? I watched as dorsett lined up again and again. If you want to live on the hope that they tthrow a deep ball on a low snap count, good luck. 

 

I get snap count analysis is overrated but to pop poo it is silly in this situation where gordon needs to learn a complex playbook. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That long TD wasn’t a busted coverage or any kind of give-me.

 

It required crazy concentration and body control in an awkward window.

 

In building on that, it is hard to imagine them not adding to his snap count AND scheming multiple shots downfield each week. I don’t think it has to be one or the other.

 

I know...it’s evil Bill and he hates us...but...Gordon isn’t a one-trick pony either. 

 

Frustrating floor...but good ceiling...with the potential to leap to a scary good knockout punch ceiling at any given moment...

 

Let’s gooooo!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What anyone should be looking for in a WR is number of targets.  Everything else falls into place.  Give me a guy who has 10+ targets a game, and he'll find a way to be in my lineup, no matter what.  But the only way to ensure a good number of targets is to have a good number of snaps.  For me, Gordon needs to play more than 18 snaps to be a viable starter in my lineup.  I would love to start JG this week, but need more evidence his snaps are increasing.     

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.