Zig Zag

Xander Bogaerts 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

What does everyone expect from Xander this year?  He was one of the hottest young SS's before last season but he injured his wrist and it all seemed downhill from there.  Do you think he can rebound in 2018 or was 2017 the new norm?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Zig Zag said:

What does everyone expect from Xander this year?  He was one of the hottest young SS's before last season but he injured his wrist and it all seemed downhill from there.  Do you think he can rebound in 2018 or was 2017 the new norm?

 

 

I don't know if he was all that "hot" before 2017.  He has never been able to translate his swing into power/lift levels to hit homers.  He goes on long, long stretches of a slump that can last for several months at a time.  Nice guy, works hard but never has reached his potential and probably never will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eye popping minor league advanced statistics.  He exploded in 2016 and was probably hurt in 2017.

 

Seems to be going in about round 8-9 in mock drafts.   He might have some value.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dont see a breakout with eye-popping stats coming but the decline last year was most definitely due to the wrist injury and i see a big rebound in 2018

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I don't know if he was all that "hot" before 2017.  He has never been able to translate his swing into power/lift levels to hit homers.  He goes on long, long stretches of a slump that can last for several months at a time.  Nice guy, works hard but never has reached his potential and probably never will.

 

Saw the first half stat line and Bogaerts was a monster.  Faria hit him with a pitch and hurt Xander's wrist, he played through it for the second half and was brutal with the bat.  

 

Buying opportunity here...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 home runs in a year in which guys were rolling out of bed in the morning and hitting 20 jacks. Power is non-existent. And he's more of a .285 hitter than a .315 one. I'd pay for a modest rebound but really don't see him turning into a star by any means. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, absknicks said:

10 home runs in a year in which guys were rolling out of bed in the morning and hitting 20 jacks. Power is non-existent. And he's more of a .285 hitter than a .315 one. I'd pay for a modest rebound but really don't see him turning into a star by any means. 

 

That is Xander in a nutshell.  He hits line drive doubles off the Green Monster and that is basically it for his "power."  Since he first came up, Boston fans have waited and waited for his "power to emerge."  It never has and most Red Sox media and fans now don't suppose it ever will.

 

In a fantasy league I'd take any number of shortstops ahead of him.  Give me Paul DeJong any day.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I don't know if he was all that "hot" before 2017.  He has never been able to translate his swing into power/lift levels to hit homers.  He goes on long, long stretches of a slump that can last for several months at a time.  Nice guy, works hard but never has reached his potential and probably never will.

I agree with your post but let's not act like he wasn't "hot" before 2017. He was being drafted in the 2nd/3rd rounds of drafts. He was supposed to be the next big SS.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those that dont like him, is it because they think last year's wrist injury will continue to affect him this season?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, absknicks said:

10 home runs in a year in which guys were rolling out of bed in the morning and hitting 20 jacks. Power is non-existent. And he's more of a .285 hitter than a .315 one. I'd pay for a modest rebound but really don't see him turning into a star by any means. 

This is kind of the biggie for me, he was sort of an across the board contributor and if he is hitting 12-13HR at SS 2-3 years ago, thats fine, but that is a little more of a liability these days which hurts his value.  I will keep an eye on him in the auction, he was a high priced disappointment last year, so my guess is he could be a bit of a bargain this year but that remains to be seen.  If price is low, I might gamble on the wrist narrative...and see what happens. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, dsd10988 said:

For those that dont like him, is it because they think last year's wrist injury will continue to affect him this season?

 

No.  It is because he is a pure line drive hitter in an era of lots of "lift" power hitting shortstops.  And he gets into prolong slumps that can last a month or more at a time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

No.  It is because he is a pure line drive hitter in an era of lots of "lift" power hitting shortstops.  And he gets into prolong slumps that can last a month or more at a time.

 

So you don't think he can adjust / tinker his swing and join the "lift" revolution?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

So you don't think he can adjust / tinker his swing and join the "lift" revolution?

 

 

He was suppose to be adjusting his swing seasons ago now.  That pretty much was all Boston media and fans have talked about regards Xander from the very beginning.  That he would transition into lifting the ball any day now.  Season after season now.  So no I don't believe it will happen.  Would be happy if it did being a Sox fans but do I expect it ever at this point?  Totally no.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Left thumb injury:

May 23 article explaining the effects Bogaerts had as a result of a thumb injury at the beginning of the season: 

 

“I can’t really finish my swing. It’s more hitting and letting it go,” said Bogaerts. “I can’t hit with two hands at all right now . . . Man, it’s tough.”

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/23/soxside/xnjlagMw3xpsrjt4cfcBvI/story.html


Left Wrist injury:

Written in September, talks about how much Bogaerts has been playing through pain from getting hit by a pitch in July.oing.https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/09/03/slowed-injury-xander-bogaerts-hoping-for-reboot/2O1bsvOu9x9bcU9cm4kCnK/story.html

 

So Bogaerts stubbornly played througj pain and was mediocre last season. Imagine if he was on the DL last season for half of the season, how close would you value him to his 2015-2016 ranking considering 2017 to be a wasted lost season. 

 

I think you could get him 8th-10th round most leagues and confidently expect 2015-2016 numbers if he has no more hand/wrist injuries. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So if we are talking about his fantasy outlook I don't see the huge issue. I know the leagues I play in is mainly points leagues and in those leagues he is the top SS for 3 year average and was first in 2015, and 1st/2nd 2016, and top 6 last year. That doesn't seem to bad from a fantasy perspective. I don't play roto so not sure how it goes with those.

 

Of course would be nice to get the power up there and hit like 15-20 HRs. But to me there isn't much wrong with his output from a fantasy points perspective!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ecac said:

So if we are talking about his fantasy outlook I don't see the huge issue. I know the leagues I play in is mainly points leagues and in those leagues he is the top SS for 3 year average and was first in 2015, and 1st/2nd 2016, and top 6 last year. That doesn't seem to bad from a fantasy perspective. I don't play roto so not sure how it goes with those.

 

Of course would be nice to get the power up there and hit like 15-20 HRs. But to me there isn't much wrong with his output from a fantasy points perspective!

 

Yes it does depend on the league settings.  I play both h2h and roto and in those two formats he is way down the list of SS to own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

All in this year considering his ADP

 

This is the key.  Drafting him at his ADP is sure to bring value.  Anything sooner no way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/18/2018 at 1:13 AM, absknicks said:

10 home runs in a year in which guys were rolling out of bed in the morning and hitting 20 jacks. Power is non-existent. And he's more of a .285 hitter than a .315 one. I'd pay for a modest rebound but really don't see him turning into a star by any means. 

Ever seen a .285 hitter become one that hits .315?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Ever seen a .285 hitter become one that hits .315?

Is that a serious question?

Blackmon, Altuve, Murphy, LeMahieu, Turner, D. Gordon have and Posey bounces back and forth between those numbers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.