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Jameis Winston 2018 Outlook

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I think I'm going with Winston over Goff this week, and then dumping Winston after that... good matchup this week, terrible matchups after that

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55 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

what are we thinking about him for week 15 against Baltimore and then week 16 against the Dallas defense shut down Drew Brees?

I am wondering if someone like Josh Allen might be a better stash or backup quarterback if you have other options.

 

Did just this ^  Playing Winston this week and dropped Lamar Jackson for Josh Allen for next week if I make it that far?  Want no part of Winston on the road at Ravens!

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

 

Hate the matchups.   If you don't have someone else already,  you should at least take a look.

 

 

Have Wilson. Wondering if Allen better backup for weeks 15 16

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33 minutes ago, LouDawg said:

 

Did just this ^  Playing Winston this week and dropped Lamar Jackson for Josh Allen for next week if I make it that far?  Want no part of Winston on the road at Ravens!

 

Am thinking of doing similar.  My playoffs are week 15 and 16.  Winston's matchups are brutal.  And with Harbaugh, who even knows if Jackson will be starting.  I just can't quite grasp the thought, of starting Josh Allen in the playoffs.  Yikes.

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I started winston the last two weeks but am dropping him THIS week.  I had wentz starting against the saints a few weeks back and want NO part of that potential in the playoffs.  Far too much risk IMO.

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5 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

I started winston the last two weeks but am dropping him THIS week.  I had wentz starting against the saints a few weeks back and want NO part of that potential in the playoffs.  Far too much risk IMO.

 

Yeah its risky but if you've had Winston to this point it probably means you don't have a clear top 8 or so QB. Winston's floor is real low but he still has top 3 upside. Wentz completely imploded that game and while the Saints D is probably better than they are given credit for due to the game scripts their offense creates it leaves plenty of opportunities for QBs to put up fantasy points (which is why they are one of the best matchups for QBs). 

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21 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

I started winston the last two weeks but am dropping him THIS week.  I had wentz starting against the saints a few weeks back and want NO part of that potential in the playoffs.  Far too much risk IMO.

 

Wait, what?

 

Saints give up the 4th most ppg to QBs.

 

The matchup is the only reason I am even considering Jameis.

Edited by dmb3684

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8 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

Yeah its risky but if you've had Winston to this point it probably means you don't have a clear top 8 or so QB. Winston's floor is real low but he still has top 3 upside. Wentz completely imploded that game and while the Saints D is probably better than they are given credit for due to the game scripts their offense creates it leaves plenty of opportunities for QBs to put up fantasy points (which is why they are one of the best matchups for QBs). 

 

You make a good point but the stat that just stands out the most is this: 11.3 ppg

 

That's what the Saints have allowed to the opposition over the last three games. Games which included Wentz, Ryan, and Dak at QB.

 

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11 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Wait, what?

 

Saints give up the 4th most ppg to QBs.

 

The matchup is the only reason I am even considering Jameis.

Potential disaster awaits you my friend.

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1 minute ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Potential disaster awaits you my friend.

 

And that is the reason I may not play him. LOL. I haven't made up my mind. Was just noting that the matchup is great.

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

And that is the reason I may not play him. LOL. I haven't made up my mind. Was just noting that the matchup is great.

 

Saints have not been a good QB matchup for a bit now.  For me it comes down to the potential floor.  Could be a season ender.

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17 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Wait, what?

 

Saints give up the 4th most ppg to QBs.

 

The matchup is the only reason I am even considering Jameis.

They've been great lately. Im still starting him over Watson. Got allen stashed in case I win

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6 minutes ago, yanksman said:

They've been great lately. Im still starting him over Watson. Got allen stashed in case I win

 

Matty Ice threw for almost 400 yards against them 2 weeks ago and Dak stinks. Color me not impressed. 

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4 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Matty Ice threw for almost 400 yards against them 2 weeks ago and Dak stinks. Color me not impressed. 

 

Start the **** out of him. I wont.

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2 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

 

Start the **** out of him. I wont.

 

Again, I haven't decided.

 

You said it was a bad matchup based on Wentz having a bad game.

 

I was just pointing out that Saints are amongst the league leaders in fantasy points given up to QBs. This is a factual statement.

 

I don't want to mislead fellow Rotoworlders. 

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We can't read too much into 3-4 game sample sizes imo. Whether you start Winston depends on your options. I prefer a QB like Luck over him but Winston over Goff this week.

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50 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

You make a good point but the stat that just stands out the most is this: 11.3 ppg

 

That's what the Saints have allowed to the opposition over the last three games. Games which included Wentz, Ryan, and Dak at QB.

 

Every system is slightly different; across my main leagues against the Saints, opposing QB's have a 10.56 PPG over his last 3 games, so the number is very close to yours. What's interesting is that 2 of those 3 QB's have had a better number than 10.56. 

 

The number is so low because Wentz was completely awful (he had -3.45 points). Dak had 12.63, which granted is not great, but it is 2 points better than the average. And Ryan had 22.49, which is a solid number. 

 

Overall, the Saints have allowed 6 of 12 QB's to hit over 20 points (Fitzpatrick, Ryan twice, Flacco, Cousins & Goff). 4 of those 20 point games have come since their Week 6 bye. Just food for thought overall. 

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7 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Every system is slightly different; across my main leagues against the Saints, opposing QB's have a 10.56 PPG over his last 3 games, so the number is very close to yours. What's interesting is that 2 of those 3 QB's have had a better number than 10.56. 

 

The number is so low because Wentz was completely awful (he had -3.45 points). Dak had 12.63, which granted is not great, but it is 2 points better than the average. And Ryan had 22.49, which is a solid number. 

 

Overall, the Saints have allowed 6 of 12 QB's to hit over 20 points (Fitzpatrick, Ryan twice, Flacco, Cousins & Goff). 4 of those 20 point games have come since their Week 6 bye. Just food for thought overall. 

 

What he said.

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8 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

Every system is slightly different; across my main leagues against the Saints, opposing QB's have a 10.56 PPG over his last 3 games, so the number is very close to yours. What's interesting is that 2 of those 3 QB's have had a better number than 10.56. 

 

The number is so low because Wentz was completely awful (he had -3.45 points). Dak had 12.63, which granted is not great, but it is 2 points better than the average. And Ryan had 22.49, which is a solid number. 

 

Overall, the Saints have allowed 6 of 12 QB's to hit over 20 points (Fitzpatrick, Ryan twice, Flacco, Cousins & Goff). 4 of those 20 point games have come since their Week 6 bye. Just food for thought overall. 

 

That's my fault for not being clear in my explanation. I was looking at it from an overall perspective.

 

That 11.3 ppg is the average points per game allowed by the Saints defense over the last three games. Atlanta, Philly and Dallas has scored a cumulative total of 34 points over the last three games. .

 

The Saints are allowing just 289 yards over their last four games which is #1 during that time span.

The Saints are #1 in 3rd down/4th down percentage as a defense.

The Saints are #1 in takeaways over the last four games.

The Saints are #1 in sacks over the last four games

 

This defense is scary. This defense in consistent. This defense does not seem like a fluke.

 

https://www.wwltv.com/article/sports/nfl/saints/defense-wins-championships-and-saints-have-playoff-pictures-best/289-620886254

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6 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

That's my fault for not being clear in my explanation. I was looking at it from an overall perspective.

 

That 11.3 ppg is the average points per game allowed by the Saints defense over the last three games. Atlanta, Philly and Dallas has scored a cumulative total of 34 points over the last three games. .

 

The Saints are allowing just 289 yards over their last four games which is #1 during that time span.

The Saints are #1 in 3rd down/4th down percentage as a defense.

The Saints are #1 in takeaways over the last four games.

The Saints are #1 in sacks over the last four games

 

This defense is scary. This defense in consistent. This defense does not seem like a fluke.

 

https://www.wwltv.com/article/sports/nfl/saints/defense-wins-championships-and-saints-have-playoff-pictures-best/289-620886254

 

Skewed by Wentz’s negative performance. Dak and Ryan were fine. 

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2 minutes ago, thebull315 said:

 

Skewed by Wentz’s negative performance. Dak and Ryan were fine. 

 

Their teams scored a grand total of 30 points. Ryan got his TD's in garbage time. Dak didn't do nothing after the first quarter. But, if that floats your boat, then go for it.

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45 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

That's my fault for not being clear in my explanation. I was looking at it from an overall perspective.

 

That 11.3 ppg is the average points per game allowed by the Saints defense over the last three games. Atlanta, Philly and Dallas has scored a cumulative total of 34 points over the last three games. .

 

The Saints are allowing just 289 yards over their last four games which is #1 during that time span.

The Saints are #1 in 3rd down/4th down percentage as a defense.

The Saints are #1 in takeaways over the last four games.

The Saints are #1 in sacks over the last four games

 

This defense is scary. This defense in consistent. This defense does not seem like a fluke.

 

https://www.wwltv.com/article/sports/nfl/saints/defense-wins-championships-and-saints-have-playoff-pictures-best/289-620886254

 

Gotcha as far as the PPG you were referring to. I do agree that the Saints defense has been playing well lately. Overall though, I think they can still be susceptible to QB's putting up good fantasy numbers against them. Over the last 4 games, they were able to completely hold down Dalton and Wentz, though for Dalton and Cinci, that was their first game minus AJ Green. And Dak was only mediocre (though that often is Dak). 

 

For this week, the Saints should be able to score pretty easily, so I think Winston will be airing it out. That does increase the chance for turnovers, but also gives him the opportunity to put up a good fantasy game overall (with yards and touchdowns). We'll see what happens. 

Edited by Corleone

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Risky play this week. I think the saints defense is respectable and Winston can easily stink it up with ints. It could also end up being a shootout. He helped me get in the playoffs with trubisky down but I think I'll go mitch vs the rams. 

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I agree with all of the above sentiments about the saints D, they are strong and likely in the 10-15 range at this point. It just wouldn’t surprise me if jameis throws tie ball 50 times here. Sure that could leave him susceptible to a few picks, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t surpass 300 yards, my prediction: 315/3 TD/2 INT.

 

Still not sure whether or not to start him over Watson, but generally the tie-breaker for me is to follow the higher scoring game, and this is it.

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More on Winston and Tampa Bay as a whole at the QB position...

 

These have been the weekly QB ranks for Tampa Bay QB each week this season:

--Week 1 - #1 QB (Fitzpatrick)

--Week 2 - #5 QB (Fitzpatrick)

--Week 3 - #8 QB (Fitzpatrick)

--Week 4 - #27 QB (Fitzpatrick & Winston)

--Week 5 - bye 

--Week 6 - #1 QB (Winston)

--Week 7 - #18 QB (Winston)

--Week 8 - #8 QB (Fitzpatrick & Winston)

--Week 9 - #5 QB (Fitzpatrick)

--Week 10 - #22 QB (Fitzpatrick)

--Week 11 - #11 QB (Fitzpatrick & Winston)

--Week 12 - #6 QB (Winston)

--Week 13 - #8 QB (Winston)

 

So overall, Tampa Bay has had 7 weeks as a Top 8 QB, in which the starter played the whole game.

They've also had 2 weeks as a Top 11 QB, in which both QB's played.

They had 1 week around the middle of the pack in Week 7 (the #18 for Winston was 15.7 points, which is respectable).

And they had 2 duds. The Week 10 dud was the game in which Tampa threw for over 400 yards but didn't score any TD's.

 

Obviously you don't get fantasy points when the backup plays. But point is that the Tampa QB position has been extremely productive fantasy-wise. Anything can happen with Winston, but there is enormous upside potential there.

 

For a comparison purpose, Drew Brees is the #2 fantasy QB behind Mahomes this season. Brees has had weekly finishes at #15, #25, #26, and #27 this season. 1 middle of the pack game, and 3 duds. 

 

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