Homerj24

Justin Smoak 2018 Outlook

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I think all the evidence is in that last year was a COMPLETE fluke. 

Facing Sale tonight. Can’t believe they aren’t sitting him vs that beast. 

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32 minutes ago, juice219 said:

I think all the evidence is in that last year was a COMPLETE fluke. 

Facing Sale tonight. Can’t believe they aren’t sitting him vs that beast. 

 

All the evidence? COMPLETE fluke? Last year's numbers were the result of clear improvements across a number of areas. He earned his success last season.

 

But concerning this year's evidence, consider this.....

 

Among qualified hitters, Smoak's SwStr% is 27th (6.8%), right between contact professionals Ender Inciarte and Cesar Hernandez. His O-Swing% is 6th at a minuscule 18.0%. These numbers are clear improvements from last season's (8.9% and 25.8%), which were major improvements themselves from 2016. The plate discipline numbers are the most trustworthy at this point in the season. We need are larger sample size to fully believe everything else. But it appears he is taking his good approach at the plate to another level.

 

On the down side, it does appear that the hard contact% is down (although average exit velocity is up by more than 3 mph), as is his launch angle. But all in all, based on improvements in plate discipline, I'm going to exercise patience with Smoak.

Edited by joshtribe
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3 minutes ago, SmallBallz said:

So we can assume to lose his services through the entire weekend? 

Could be back Friday, if not - Saturday.

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Yeah I would hold for sure. All his underlying numbers suggest he’s kept in line with the changes he made in his approach last year. He’s not striking out at an alarming rate, and increased his walk rate significantly. He’s among the leaders in batter who swing as pitches outside of the zone the least. Contact rates are up. 

 

Firm hold

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg90 said:

Dud.

Huh? RBI double tonight. Seems to be warming up. Homer binge any moment now. Underrated lineup hitting in a nice spot. Feel free to take one for the team & drop so us faithful owners can immediately reap the rewards!

Edited by ZChronicNebula
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23 hours ago, ZChronicNebula said:

Huh? RBI double tonight. Seems to be warming up. Homer binge any moment now. Underrated lineup hitting in a nice spot. Feel free to take one for the team & drop so us faithful owners can immediately reap the rewards!

I hope you are right. I'm concerned because he slumped really hard in August and September last year (August: .240 6 HR September: .180 2HR) . It's cool that his approach still seems good and he isn't striking out a lot, but through the first 33 games this year he is batting .254 with only 4 homers. Alarm bells are starting to go off. I really hope he proves me wrong.

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seems that he has been picking up the pace as of late. we bullish ROS?

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Not making excuses but he hasn't hit for anything worth commenting since he went on paternity leave. He wasn't stuffing the stat sheet before that by any means but he's not even close to what he was last season & it's been real apparent the past month or so since the baby. May be distracted as he's big into family but I'm hoping he re-dedicates and has a ROS that is what most expected.

 

All the peripherals seem to be there for the most part...at least they were until a couple weeks ago...I still think he'll have binges of production that are reminiscent of last season. 

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@Biig_Pressure21 Take your bench coach question to the correct forum.  Questions about your team belong in the Bench Coach forum.  Thanks,

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I think format makes a big difference in how you view Smoak as well.  In my OBP / TB league (instead of AVG / HR), he's the #11 ranked 1B on the year.  His HR pace is off from last year, but he's hitting doubles at a much higher pace than last year, and as mentioned before he's walking a ton and not chasing pitches out of the zone.  So it's not as if he's not producing at all, he's just doing it in ways that aren't traditionally counted in fantasy.  

 

Soft contact rate is at a career low, he's still hitting the same amount of fly balls, and his contact rates are still up there with last year's.  All the signs are there that he will go on a heater soon.

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 i'm pretty sure he will be traded at the deadline, it all depends where he goes, the Yanks, Astros, Rockies and Nats could all use him, all hitter friendly parks, it could bode well for his fantasy numbers the rest of the year. He's in a funk right now, I never really thought much of him and thought last year was a fluke, he's been ok this year but nothing like a season ago

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1/28(0/20) stretch, hitting .200 over the last 30 days.  With that said, a .776 OPS isn't terrible, but he's been tough to hold on to. 

 

As mentioned, the peripherals aren't terrible, but is it more that he needs Donaldson back to help protect in that lineup? 

 

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I think he might be a drop in avg leagues, but good production in obp leagues. For me he's riding the line of usefulness.  1b is shallow didn't now imo

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He has been pretty brutal the last month. Looks like his OPS really dropped off last August/September and it appears to have continued into this season. It's been o'fer after o'fer the past week with not many signs of daylight ahead. 

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Benched again (2nd straight Sunday).  Starting to wonder how long is too long to be patient with this guy.

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2 hours ago, RTW10 said:

Benched again (2nd straight Sunday).  Starting to wonder how long is too long to be patient with this guy.

Yeah, he is a guy I never really believed in - watched him struggle forever as a Mariner. I really didnt want him but I guess no one else did either because he fell pretty far in our draft (all Seattle guys), so eventually I took the chance. Wish I didn’t. I actually also drafted Jose Martinez late but dropped him instead of Smoak during a roster crunch. Sigh.  Anyway, yeah, he is getting close to dropsville, at least in my 10 teamer. Frankly that whole team stinks this year.

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