fletch44

Gregory Polanco 2018 Outlook

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Is this the year he stays healthy and puts it all together? Probably not. He is still 26 though. What round do you shrug your shoulders and bite on G.Polanco this year ?

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I think I am starting to look at Polanco the same way I was looking at Puig heading into last season, and I similarly am willing to take a shot at the power/speed upside if the price is low enough...

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I'm cautiously optimistic he can put up a 18/25 type season.  He's entering his prime years and the pedigree is there.  I'm curious to see what the analytical guys thinks about him.

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The way to deal with players like GP is to draft their floor taking into account the time that will likely be missed.  Factor in the statistics of a replacement player for the time missed.  

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I think i am to the point I'm rostering Greg because i don't think i could stand it if he does well finally & it's for another owner in the league.

 

 

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I owned him as a keeper for 3 years and he  burned me each year with injuries. This is the first year I’ll be without him as a keeper so he’ll probably have the year we’ve all been waiting for. 

 

All joking aside, he has the tools to put up a .270 80/20/80/20 season but he just hasn’t put it all together yet. And just when he started to seem like he was he got injured in the last two seasons and it completely changed his season. He’s a guy who I’ll have a keen eye on during my draft and if he falls slightly I’ll take another chance. 

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2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I owned him as a keeper for 3 years and he  burned me each year with injuries. This is the first year I’ll be without him as a keeper so he’ll probably have the year we’ve all been waiting for. 

 

All joking aside, he has the tools to put up a .270 80/20/80/20 season but he just hasn’t put it all together yet. And just when he started to seem like he was he got injured in the last two seasons and it completely changed his season. He’s a guy who I’ll have a keen eye on during my draft and if he falls slightly I’ll take another chance. 

i agree

 

think hes a sleeper this year

 

@taobball loved him last year.  i think im gonna go after him with where hes going

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I was in on him last year, I will not be in on him this year.

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8 hours ago, jimbo504 said:

I was in on him last year, I will not be in on him this year.

 

Eveything is relative to price , but I think there could be some incredible value if you’re in a league with a bunch of people sick of him. Very much the spot Puig was in last year.

 

If he blows up, you were wrong twice if you avoided him as opposed to right once. Not good to write players off because you were in on them one year and they disappointed. He was pretty injured all year, I’d focus on monitoring his health going into 2018.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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It is difficult to draft someone like Polanco and receive value.  Someone in everyone's league will believe he will remain healthy all season and draft him too high.

 

If he is drafted higher than he should be the only way he returns value is if he stays healthy all season.

Edited by jwblue

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2 minutes ago, jwblue said:

It is almost impossible to draft someone like Polanco and receive value.  Someone in everyone's league will believe he will remain healthy all season and draft him too high.

 

What makes him unique in that way.  Every option has a buyer's curse scenario.  Why is Polanco "impossible" to draft at value?

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7 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

 

What makes him unique in that way.  Every option has a buyer's curse scenario.  Why is Polanco "impossible" to draft at value?

 

I edited my post.  Impossible is not the right word.  

 

I will be looking to draft him but I don't see him being available in the round I want.  I am going to draft him expecting him to play about 110 games.  I don't expect every owner in my league to value him that way.

 

 

Edited by jwblue

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9 minutes ago, garlando said:

At his current ADP (NFBC has him at 164) I think he could be a value pick if he stays healthy. Compared to last year, his ADP has fallen and his floor is a lot less painful to take on at that price, and that makes reaching for his ceiling worth it imo. For 2018, assuming pretty good health, I will project .267/.331 with 23 HRs and 17 SBs.

 

 

Completely agree, this is a great price/ADP to roll the dice on Polanco.  If he can put it together this year I think he will be a big asset.  

 

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He hurt his shoulder right before the season started last year, never went on the DL, then hurt his hamstring in May, went on the disabled list, and then proceeded to be mediocre before he hurt his hamstring again

 

 

This is a do or die year for Polanco imo. The Pirates have some options to replace him if he isn't any good. His offseason workout routine has apparently changed, so hopefully he'll be able to stay healthy this year. 

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The thing with Polanco is that the upside everyone dreamed on as a prospect just isnt there anymore.

 He's not a 30 homer guy, and Pittsburgh is a pretty bad place to hit, so hes not going to help you there. Polanco hits the ball in the air only ~37% of the time which is just not conducive to HR's.

 

The Pirates lineup will be awful and should compete for fewest runs scored in the NL, so he'll be lucky to break 140 R+RBI. As a fantasy OF, that is pretty brutal.

 

He can't hit lefties at all so his average will never be great, and he could end up in platoon at some point. And since his walk rate is only ok, he won't ever post strong OBP's either.

 

So the only category we can hope him to return value in is steals. But his career high in a season is only 27 (3 years ago), and over his last 1000 PA's (across the past 2 seasons) hes only swiped 25 bags. 

 

Not exactly an inspiring fantasy asset.

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Polanco looks yoked. Sporer and Collette are all in on him. Based on where he is going in drafts, he will be on a lot of my teams.

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On January 24, 2018 at 3:52 PM, jwblue said:

 

I edited my post.  Impossible is not the right word.  

 

I will be looking to draft him but I don't see him being available in the round I want.  I am going to draft him expecting him to play about 110 games.  I don't expect every owner in my league to value him that way.

 

 

 

Completely disagree with this. The two years prior to last year he played 140+ games each year. I'd bet if Vegas made odds on the over/under for his games played vs some of the guys considered less "injury prone" going around him it'd be a lot closer than you'd expect.

 

The injury filled year last year will make him a great value this year given that he comes into 2018 completely healthy. He's 26, and has all the tools and the pedigree for a breakout.

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He seems to have had several issues with the left/back shoulder that hurts his power potential.  It's not bothering him anymore and his offseason regimen has been great this offseason since he's gone back to his original trainer.  Rebuilding Gregory Polanco.  People will be sleeping on him though and post hype sleepers and value picks are a great path to dynasty victory IMO.

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8 hours ago, wayzupusc said:

Out with a bruised knee - so it begins.

Death. Taxes. A Gregory Polanco lingering, nagging injury. Let's see how long this one lasts.

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