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Jesse Winker 2018 Outlook

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roster-resource has winker penciled in as a starter in LF, but i can't find anything online that confirms this. usatoday (yeah, i know) claims that winker will start in RF. everything i can find actually states the opposite, that price has said he doesn't forsee any regulars losing their job in the off season. bona fide logjam unless someone gets moved.

i mostly play in points league or OBP leagues, so i would love to see winker stick around.. but even beyond that, i think he's got a little more juice in his bat than he showed during his time at AAA. i'm not sold that he's going to maintain a 200+ ISO in the bigs, but 160-170 doesn't seem impossible. small ball park and juiced balls should help him out, and he's left handed, which i think GAB is even a little more friendly toward.

yeah he's a deep league asset, but if he finds regular playing time, i think he could surprise some folks. i'm thinking 15-20 HR with a 350+ OBP.

obligatory steamer projection: 37 G, 149 PA, .276/.359/.423 4 HR, 2 SB

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Dude can't hit lefties to save his life, but put up a strong .344/.427/.615 line against RHP. Could be the strong side of a platoon in deep leagues.

 

 Should get at bats every day batting right in front of/right behind Joey Votto in a solid Reds lineup in Great American Smallpark.

 

He's always had an excellent eye in the minors, and that carried into the show last year. Gives him an OBP league boost.

 

Hit tool has always been considered excellent and translatable, but the issue has always been power, which completely evaporated high up in the minors. However, this is likely due to a lengthy recovery from a wrist injury, which should be healed by now. 7 HR in 121 MLB ABs last year, plus hit bombs like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0EPhdz8sOg -- definitely didn't seem like the wrist was acting up anymore.

 

What do we think of this guy?

Edited by DoTheRoar
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I really like him hitting in the 2 hole. Although he does struggle against lefties I don't think he's doomed to platoon, he's still young enough to figure out improvement on that front. Pretty much Shin-Soo Choo without the steals and that worked out extremely well for the Reds back in 2013. Could very well be Robin to Votto's Batman for the next few year. 

 

I think 280/370/450 is reasonable with a possibility of 290+ if he can figure out lefties a bit. RBI will of course be pretty scarce if the Reds keep B-Ham but with Votto right behind him and a combo of Suarez/Duvall/Schebler in the 4/5 I could see 90+ runs.

 

For fantasy purposes I think a good late round OF 4/5 and maybe I'd say OF 3 in an OBP league.

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I 100% agree with this tweet. Every single day, professional sports decisions become more & more focused on +EV or the "percentage play". Even an old dumby like Mike Lombardi is talking about it on his latest football podcast wrt the Eagles & Doug Pederson. Any lineup with Billy Hamilton at the top should get Bryan Price his pink slip.

 

I love Winker's hidden ADP (370 in LABR). I'm gonna stack Winker, Votto, Gennett & Schebler vs RHPs all summer in DraftKings.

 

 

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Quote

Reds manager Bryan Price said Monday that the team's outfield will be "rotational unless performance dictates otherwise."

 

The Reds have four outfielders for three spots with Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, and Jesse Winker. It could be a little complicated initially, but a trade could clear things up at some point during the year. Either way, getting Winker at-bats should be the priority. The 24-year-old batted .298/.375/.529 with seven homers over 47 games during his time with the Reds last season.

 

 

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I almost feel like putting the Gif of the wrestler going Yes! Yes! Yes! But it's not time to celebrate yet. Just glad the skipper "might" be seeing the light!

 

 

Edited by bbythepier

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I'm not saying Hamilton should be the leadoff hitter, but I think Winker is better suited to be the No2 hitter with his OBP. I'm not sure the Reds really have a true leadoff hitter on their roster. I guess it's possible Peraza could have just had a sophomore slump last year and could bounce back and be a serviceable leadoff hitter. He had a career .341 OBP in the minors and posted a .352 OBP across 256 PAs in Cincy in 2016. 

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On 1/19/2018 at 12:36 AM, DoTheRoar said:

Dude can't hit lefties to save his life, but put up a strong .344/.427/.615 line against RHP. Could be the strong side of a platoon in deep leagues.

 

 Should get at bats every day batting right in front of/right behind Joey Votto in a solid Reds lineup in Great American Smallpark.

 

He's always had an excellent eye in the minors, and that carried into the show last year. Gives him an OBP league boost.

 

Hit tool has always been considered excellent and translatable, but the issue has always been power, which completely evaporated high up in the minors. However, this is likely due to a lengthy recovery from a wrist injury, which should be healed by now. 7 HR in 121 MLB ABs last year, plus hit bombs like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0EPhdz8sOg -- definitely didn't seem like the wrist was acting up anymore.

 

What do we think of this guy?

You are making your assessment based on stats in 96 AB vs RHP and 25 AB vs LHP during his call up? Come on...

 

He hit .280 with a .745 OPS vs LHP in AAA last year,  http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=608385#/splits/R/hitting/2017/MINORS

 

He's improved vs LHP through the minors, to say he can't hit them because of 25 AB is silly.

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My interest is piqued on Winker. From what I can see in his numbers, he appears to be a solid dart-throw late in drafts. I am definitely going to be watching heading into the season.

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On 2/23/2018 at 8:15 AM, bbythepier said:

 

 

 

I love seeing Hamilton go 0-fer every game. Please no mid/late March hot streaks!

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I remember reading an interesting article on Fangraphs a few years back about how the Reds like to have Hamilton hit in front of Votto, because A. Hamilton gets extra pitches to try to steal and B. Votto sees more fastballs.

 

It makes sense, but it also requires Hamilton to actually be on base every now and then. Mathematically it can't be worth more than having a guy with an OBP 100 points higher in that spot.

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15 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I remember reading an interesting article on Fangraphs a few years back about how the Reds like to have Hamilton hit in front of Votto, because A. Hamilton gets extra pitches to try to steal and B. Votto sees more fastballs.

 

It makes sense, but it also requires Hamilton to actually be on base every now and then. Mathematically it can't be worth more than having a guy with an OBP 100 points higher in that spot.

 

What I find fun is asking how did Hamilton ever become the leadoff hitter in the first place? So I go to his mlb page, look up his ST stats, and sure enough he hit 300/400/500 in 55 ST ABs in 2014. He opened up the 2014 season as the leadoff hitter and has never had a good OBP spring or regular season since. He's just fast.

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12 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

 

What I find fun is asking how did Hamilton ever become the leadoff hitter in the first place? So I go to his mlb page, look up his ST stats, and sure enough he hit 300/400/500 in 55 ST ABs in 2014. He opened up the 2014 season as the leadoff hitter and has never had a good OBP spring or regular season since. He's just fast.

 

Billy had a good walk rate through A+/AA which dropped in AAA in 2013, the year he was initially called up and the Reds have been dreaming on those 2012 minors numbers coming back for the last 3 seasons. Now that they have a 4 season sample size to look back on it should seem pretty obvious that he is not a lead off hitter and Winker at least vs RHP is worth a long good look.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Billy had a good walk rate through A+/AA which dropped in AAA in 2013, the year he was initially called up and the Reds have been dreaming on those 2012 minors numbers coming back for the last 3 seasons. Now that they have a 4 season sample size to look back on it should seem pretty obvious that he is not a lead off hitter and Winker at least vs RHP is worth a long good look.

 

 

 

Of course. But so has Jesse Winker (walk rate). The question I asked: How did a 256/308/350 AAA player just get handed the leadoff spot? The answer was 19 good ABs in Sept '13 and a hot spring in '14. He has failed to have a hot spring or season since. I mean, who else has handed a rookie with a good A+/AA walk rate the leadoff spot?

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12 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

 

Of course. But so has Jesse Winker (walk rate). The question I asked: How did a 256/308/350 AAA player just get handed the leadoff spot? The answer was 19 good ABs in Sept '13 and a hot spring in '14. He has failed to have a hot spring or season since. I mean, who else has handed a rookie with a good A+/AA walk rate the leadoff spot?

 

Vince Coleman went from .350/.431 in A to .257/.323 in AAA before being given the reigns to lead off in 1985 for the Cards. I am sure the Reds were thinking along those lines especially since Billy was the first player to steal 100 bags in a minor league season since Vince. I'm not a big fan of speed as the most important factor in the lead off spot, it's just my suspicion this is what the Reds front office had in mind when they gave Billy his big shot.

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Not that relevant on a spring training meatball cutter but maybe speaking to Jesse's possible power growth as he ages.... I've been to Goodyear Ballpark many times and will be there at some point next week but I do believe today's HR would have cleared the bleachers at Great American and landed in the river. Just opinion though.

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well hamilton sprained his finger or something and hasn't got a hit at all, maybe good for winker haha

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14 hours ago, bbythepier said:

Not that relevant on a spring training meatball cutter but maybe speaking to Jesse's possible power growth as he ages.... I've been to Goodyear Ballpark many times and will be there at some point next week but I do believe today's HR would have cleared the bleachers at Great American and landed in the river. Just opinion though.

Yeah, it's a nice tidbit. I questioned if he could hit 20 HR and if his 7 last year in 40 something games were real. But seeing raw power like that makes me feel comfortable I can potentially count on him for 20+.

 

Grain of salt.

Edited by StevieStats

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If he develops even 15 HR power could be a stud.  I believe he could become a .300/.400 ba/obp guy, but the power or lack therof has always been the question since he obviously isn’t a base stealer.  

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3 hours ago, bbythepier said:

And so it begins ??

 

 

Yuck. Honestly, I prefer Hamilton, Winker's as 1-2 then Senzel at the bottom of the order. 

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2 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Yuck. Honestly, I prefer Hamilton, Winker's as 1-2 then Senzel at the bottom of the order. 

 

100% disagree.

 

Senzel had a .391 OBP with .905 OPS last yearin the minors.  Hamilton has "earned" the 9th spot.

 

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20 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Yuck. Honestly, I prefer Hamilton, Winker's as 1-2 then Senzel at the bottom of the order. 

Why senzel, a high obp guy with speed, at the bottom?

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